Timetables set 18/24 months into the future

[bringbackcrouc]

Could we ever reach a position where railway timetables are fixed 18/24 months into the future... i.e. I could book my train travel for summer 2025 now.

I'm trying to book tickets for this half-term and I'm amazed that some of the timetables are not confirmed yet. I've ended up booking a flight instead.

 

[The Planner]

Could we ever reach a position where railway timetables are fixed 18/24 months into the future... i.e. I could book my train travel for summer 2025 now.

I'm trying to book tickets for this half-term and I'm amazed that some of the timetables are not confirmed yet. I've ended up booking a flight instead.

Midweek, possibly, but even then I highly doubt you could get a confirmed to the minute schedule/itinerary 18 months out. It could still flex and you are still going to be at the mercy of any re-writes to provide a better service, new infrastructure, new rolling stock etc. Though for example, on the WCML, you could pretty much expect what is in the WTT to be the same for the next few years as its just been re-written. Weekends no, until the industry can guarantee no changes in an engineering plan. We have only managed a whole year offered base WTT in one go for 2012 as part of the Olympics.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure why being able to book that far ahead is a good thing. 12 months I'd give you.

 

[bringbackcrouc]

What are the barriers to fixing an engineering plan a year in advance?

 

[The Planner]

What are the barriers to fixing an engineering plan a year in advance?

A year is normally manageable but can and will change to an extent, more than that and you come up with resource, design and contractor problems. Version 2 of the 24 Engineering Access Statement is due soon, but it will still alter.

 

[Thirteen]

I don't know what I'm going to do in two weeks, never mind two years.

 

[Bald Rick]

What are the barriers to fixing an engineering plan a year in advance?

1) The rate of asset deterioration being inconsistent.
2) external factors (eg severe weather, external ’incursions’, geological issues)
3) customer / funder requirements

Are the main issues.

The big works are essentially fixed more than a year in advance, and that sets the base timetable. All planned works are set 8-9 months out, and the planning process then takes another 4-6 months to set the train plan. Any works arising inside that 8-9 month timeframe is effectively ‘short notice’ albeit passengers won’t usually be told that.

 

[RobShipway]

You also cannot plan as to what the weather will do over that 18 months period and damage/destruction that weather may cause to the railways.

Yes, the UK as a country through Autumn/Winter time is getting warmer due to global warming. So it is very rare, other than in the very north of Scotland that we have very heavy snow falls, as we did during the 1970's to early 2000's. But that also means that around the country, we are seeing stronger winds many times and heavier rainfall, which is doing a different kind of damage to both properties and the railway infrastructure.

 

[30907]

How likely is it that, on a typical European rail network, the service on offer in 2 years time will be significantly different?
By significant (for argument's sake): journey time and/or number of departures per day increased/decreased by 10%.
And how likely, since the comparison has been made, is that to be the case on an air route?

 

[Thirteen]

Generally flights are not offered years in advance, cruises are but those are planned itineraries and I imagine there are tweaks to be made. That's not possible for trains or even coaches.