Covid-19 is likely to result in a reorganisation of timetables, and there is likely to be some retrenchment. At present, nobody wants to admit this because we're still in 'emergency mode' and because it would be bad politics, but the reality is that there will be either a greater or lesser degree of changes made. It is unlikely that large changes can be made in time for December 2020 and I understand time is running out now for a wholesale change in May 2021. We can discuss more widely the economic impact on the future of timetables in a dedicated thread. We could also discuss opportunities for cost savings in another dedicated thread. I suggest that we proceed on the basis that that Treasury is happy to continue paying the current level of subsidy for a couple of years for the sake of the debate, but this is highly unlikely.
The question I seek to pose in this thread is this: where might timetables change to get better value for carbon on our existing resources? So for example where can current services be reorganised so that carbon emissions per passenger km fall without requiring extra resources to what has already been committed?
Clearly this will be a politically sensitive subject but I would ask everyone to suspend their disbelief and accept that all options are on the table now. This is, after all, the Speculative Ideas forum.
I will make two opening gambits to give people the flavour of discussion.
There’s currently an hourly path between Manchester Airport and Lancaster via Wigan North Western that's only used by DMUs, often three car sets. These services to Barrow-in-Furness or Windermere could be cut in two at Lancaster and DMU connections provided. Class 319s, which may be able to operate in 8 car, would be available as Northern's sre going off lease. There would be a downgrade of rolling stock involved and inconvenience from having to change trains, but the benefits are significant in terms of carbon emissions. It may allow a slight improvement to the timetabling of the Windermere services if they don't need to run through beyond Lancaster. I would be interested to know if a standard path from Windermere to Lancaster can be found in every hour. This would actually represent a slight improvement to the service if so. It's unclear if there's platform capacity at Lancaster to turn around an 8 car every hour though.
Another case is that the only fast service between Southampton and Portsmouth is provided by DMUs which run to Cardiff. It's unclear if it's possible to turn these around at Southampton Central or possibly Eastleigh instead, but replacing them with a DC EMU operated semi-fast service would again offer significantly more capacity and cut carbon emissions per passenger km. Of course, there's already a proposal to do just this with a new SWR service.
In both cases it's likely that some long distance passengers would be lost, because they're unwilling to change trains. However, the possible efficiency gains are significant enough that it may be possible to offset those losses with more passengers making a shorter journey. As Covid-19 has likely significantly reduced long distance traffic for some years a similar proportion of loss now represents less absolute value.
Another way to look at this is this: perhaps rail as a mode is now more suited to transporting larger numbers of people between Preston and Manchester, or between Southampton and Portsmouth, than transporting a comparatively very small number of people between Manchester Airport and Barrow-in-Furness or Cardiff and Portsmouth?
The question I seek to pose in this thread is this: where might timetables change to get better value for carbon on our existing resources? So for example where can current services be reorganised so that carbon emissions per passenger km fall without requiring extra resources to what has already been committed?
Clearly this will be a politically sensitive subject but I would ask everyone to suspend their disbelief and accept that all options are on the table now. This is, after all, the Speculative Ideas forum.
I will make two opening gambits to give people the flavour of discussion.
There’s currently an hourly path between Manchester Airport and Lancaster via Wigan North Western that's only used by DMUs, often three car sets. These services to Barrow-in-Furness or Windermere could be cut in two at Lancaster and DMU connections provided. Class 319s, which may be able to operate in 8 car, would be available as Northern's sre going off lease. There would be a downgrade of rolling stock involved and inconvenience from having to change trains, but the benefits are significant in terms of carbon emissions. It may allow a slight improvement to the timetabling of the Windermere services if they don't need to run through beyond Lancaster. I would be interested to know if a standard path from Windermere to Lancaster can be found in every hour. This would actually represent a slight improvement to the service if so. It's unclear if there's platform capacity at Lancaster to turn around an 8 car every hour though.
Another case is that the only fast service between Southampton and Portsmouth is provided by DMUs which run to Cardiff. It's unclear if it's possible to turn these around at Southampton Central or possibly Eastleigh instead, but replacing them with a DC EMU operated semi-fast service would again offer significantly more capacity and cut carbon emissions per passenger km. Of course, there's already a proposal to do just this with a new SWR service.
In both cases it's likely that some long distance passengers would be lost, because they're unwilling to change trains. However, the possible efficiency gains are significant enough that it may be possible to offset those losses with more passengers making a shorter journey. As Covid-19 has likely significantly reduced long distance traffic for some years a similar proportion of loss now represents less absolute value.
Another way to look at this is this: perhaps rail as a mode is now more suited to transporting larger numbers of people between Preston and Manchester, or between Southampton and Portsmouth, than transporting a comparatively very small number of people between Manchester Airport and Barrow-in-Furness or Cardiff and Portsmouth?
