Thoughts on this Southeastern rejig idea?

[321362]

Completely got out the crayons here:

Divert Thameslink Rainham - Luton services to run all stations via Bromley South and Catford
Extra trains from either Charing Cross or Cannon Street to Gillingham, all stations along the Greenwich Line
Cut the Victoria - Gillingham stoppers and run them somewhere else (I was thinking Lewisham then Sevenoaks, semifast in between the Hastings and the Ramsgate on the fast lines)


The stations from Bromley South to Rochester would get an increase in frequency from 1tph gillingham to 2tph thameslink
Lewisham, Hither Green, Chislehurst, Orpington, Chelsfield and Sevenoaks would get more trains to London
Greenwich Line would finally get a reliable service that isn't axed off every time something goes wrong in the Thameslink core

 

[30907]

Completely got out the crayons here:

Divert Thameslink Rainham - Luton services to run all stations via Bromley South and Catford

Possibly, does the Catford Loop need 6tph in the peaks? I would run non-stop from BMS to Denmark Hill (and reinstate the Orpingtons all day)

Extra trains from either Charing Cross or Cannon Street to Gillingham, all stations along the Greenwich Line

It would have to be CST - getting right across the layout at N Kent E isn't realistic in the up direction - but please, NOT all stations, it needs to be semi-fast.

Cut the Victoria - Gillingham stoppers

They are covered by TL above so OK

and run them somewhere else (I was thinking Lewisham then Sevenoaks, semifast in between the Hastings and the Ramsgate on the fast lines)

I can't see any point in that, and you have already increased train mileage by running 2xTL tph vice 1xSE

 

[321362]

Possibly, does the Catford Loop need 6tph in the peaks? I would run non-stop from BMS to Denmark Hill (and reinstate the Orpingtons all day)

It would have to be CST - getting right across the layout at N Kent E isn't realistic in the up direction - but please, NOT all stations, it needs to be semi-fast.

They are covered by TL above so OK

I can't see any point in that, and you have already increased train mileage by running 2xTL tph vice 1xSE

Maybe not non-stop from BMS to DMK, intermediate stops at Catford at least - and Beckenham Hill?

Semifast like the Thameslink seems logical

Instead of the Gillingham, maybe another fast service to somewhere useful. Victoria, Lewisham then Orpington, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Ashford?

 

[Mgameing123]

Completely got out the crayons here:

Divert Thameslink Rainham - Luton services to run all stations via Bromley South and Catford
Extra trains from either Charing Cross or Cannon Street to Gillingham, all stations along the Greenwich Line
Cut the Victoria - Gillingham stoppers and run them somewhere else (I was thinking Lewisham then Sevenoaks, semifast in between the Hastings and the Ramsgate on the fast lines)


The stations from Bromley South to Rochester would get an increase in frequency from 1tph gillingham to 2tph thameslink
Lewisham, Hither Green, Chislehurst, Orpington, Chelsfield and Sevenoaks would get more trains to London
Greenwich Line would finally get a reliable service that isn't axed off every time something goes wrong in the Thameslink core

Pretty sure from what I understand, the locals on the southern section of the Rainham - Luton service would rather have it be ran by SouthEastern heading into either Charring Cross or Victoria. I mean that way we can free up 2 tph in the core that can be used elsewhere.

 

[Trainlog]

Providing that the former Thameslink services are going to either Charing Cross or Cannon Street, only then is that not necessarily a bad idea.

I do agree —reliability is not exactly perfect, shall we say, with Thameslink services. It's not uncommon to hear that a service is cancelled due to a lack of available train crew or a failure on a part of the network, such as the Thameslink core or the Midland mainline. Delays are alright —5-8 minutes at worst. If you need to get to Strood from Chatham or Gillingham and you have a tight connection for the Medway Valley, those delays are certainly unwelcome.

However, there will be the obvious drawbacks. That does mean Kent users will lose Farringdon and Luton Airport services, but it also means that St Pancras services are less resilient if HS1 goes down, with Thameslink providing a backup route.

So, in other words, it's a game of tradeoffs. In an ideal world, it would be nice if there were a public consultation with Kent and Medway residents to decide whether a Thameslink service or a Charing X or Cannon Street service is the best solution, service-wise.

 

[Stephen42]

Maybe not non-stop from BMS to DMK, intermediate stops at Catford at least - and Beckenham Hill?

Semifast like the Thameslink seems logical

Instead of the Gillingham, maybe another fast service to somewhere useful. Victoria, Lewisham then Orpington, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Ashford?

On the Catford loop, the potential semi fast stations would be Catford, Crofton Park and Bellingham are the most used stations.

Swapping the SE Gillinghams and TL Rainhams doesn't free up any units or capacity. All those station pairs can be done with one change today. Several of those stretches are at or near track capacity at peak times. Victoria to Denmark Hill freed up by the swap is not where the capacity bottlenecks are.

In terms of the swap which seems to get suggested frequently. The SE Gillingham stoppers are 1tph off peak and often 4-car as there is little demand. Taking the stations between Swanley and Rochester exclusive where these services are all or a large part of the service have 832k annual entries/exits combined. An average weekday that's under 2k people who can fit a pair of 8-car class 700s. Demand will primarily be in the peaks when 2tph run. The other stations either have faster trains or more frequent trains that most people will catch. Running 2pth 8-car will be running very empty trains at increased expense.

While the Thameslink Rainham service may have its problems, trying to cover 2tph all day with Southeastern staff who currently do the 1tph off peak and 2tph at peak is unlikely to work well either. Similarly just diverting Thameslink drivers onto another route seems to just move the problem. There will also be costs to train drivers on new routes and possibly to get the route/stations cleared for DOO (the Swanley to Rochester section currently isn't). That's without exploring whether the additional 2tph into Cannon Street in the morning peak is feasible. While extra staff may help with this swap, recruiting them as Thameslink drivers for the current Rainham service will have more impact quicker.

 

[cle]

The likes of Crofton Park deserve a better service than Sole Street. 6tph on the Catford Loop is good if the faster one does 1-2 semi fast calls.

It also should call Peckham Rye, ideally.

6tph all stations at a 10 min interval would also be useful. Even if just to Blackfriars.

 

[RS465]

I would restore the old London Charing Cross to Gillingham via Lewisham service and have trains every 10 minutes serving all stations from London Cannon Street to Slade Green, then have the Rainham service do one of the following:

-Take over the London Blackfriars to Sevenoaks service
-Take over the service from London Bridge to Epsom via Croydon and Sutton
-Rerouted to East Grinstead with the Uckfield service rerouted to terminate at London Victoria

 

[Mattplans]

I do agree —reliability is not exactly perfect, shall we say, with Thameslink services. It's not uncommon to hear that a service is cancelled due to a lack of available train crew or a failure on a part of the network, such as the Thameslink core or the Midland mainline. Delays are alright —5-8 minutes at worst. If you need to get to Strood from Chatham or Gillingham and you have a tight connection for the Medway Valley, those delays are certainly unwelcome.

A couple of weeks back when there was a fatality at Luton - they were cancelling the Sevenoaks stoppers all day. Note these services only run to Blackfriars and not beyond. It does feel like they seke any excuse sometimes
Catford Loop had all day services to Luton before Covid. Is it completely radical to say these should be reinstated, then the Rainhams added on top of that for 6tph all day via Catford? As for the Southeastern service that runs via Catford I would like to see this stay simply because Denmark Hill is a destination.

That does mean Kent users will lose Farringdon and Luton Airport services, but it also means that St Pancras services are less resilient if HS1 goes down, with Thameslink providing a backup route.

All passengers can change at Abbey Wood and connect with these services much faster.

Extra trains from either Charing Cross or Cannon Street to Gillingham, all stations along the Greenwich Line

Agree - and no reason it can't continue going to Rainham. Like has been mentioned, it can miss some stops, or maybe during peak hours it can go semi/fast.

I would restore the old London Charing Cross to Gillingham via Lewisham service and have trains every 10 minutes serving all stations from London Cannon Street to Slade Green, then have the Rainham service do one of the following:

I think it's better if it runs via Greenwich considering the service on this route has been reduced in recent memory.

A post on https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/ theorises that the main attraction in running the service via Greenwich for Thameslink is receiving 50% of the revenue of all journies from Abbey Wood to Farringdon. That will need to be fact-checked but it's an interesting thought.

 

[321362]

no reason it can't continue going to Rainham.

Does Platform 0 at Rainham have the capacity for 2tph Thameslink and, say, 4tph Southeastern stoppers?

 

[Mattplans]

Does Platform 0 at Rainham have the capacity for 2tph Thameslink and, say, 4tph Southeastern stoppers?

Oh, I thought the service being proposed was replacing the Thameslink? If not, not sure there’s enough demand to support both

 

[Trainguy34]

Does Platform 0 at Rainham have the capacity for 2tph Thameslink and, say, 4tph Southeastern stoppers?

Assuming 4 mins reoccupation time, that would mean 6 minutes turns, which wouldn't realistically give enough time for padding.

 

[Stephen42]

A couple of weeks back when there was a fatality at Luton - they were cancelling the Sevenoaks stoppers all day. Note these services only run to Blackfriars and not beyond. It does feel like they seke any excuse sometimes
Catford Loop had all day services to Luton before Covid. Is it completely radical to say these should be reinstated, then the Rainhams added on top of that for 6tph all day via Catford? As for the Southeastern service that runs via Catford I would like to see this stay simply because Denmark Hill is a destination.

No Southeastern route has 6tph currently. The Catford Loop has lower demand than other routes, it's unlikely to be net cost effective. Funding to have 4tph all day would be a more achievable aspiration and it is one of the few metro routes in the area without four trains an hour.

All passengers can change at Abbey Wood and connect with these services much faster.

Agree - and no reason it can't continue going to Rainham. Like has been mentioned, it can miss some stops, or maybe during peak hours it can go semi/fast.

I think it's better if it runs via Greenwich considering the service on this route has been reduced in recent memory.

A post on https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/ theorises that the main attraction in running the service via Greenwich for Thameslink is receiving 50% of the revenue of all journies from Abbey Wood to Farringdon. That will need to be fact-checked but it's an interesting thought.

That seems unlikely to be the split. The origin destination matrix (ODM) shows only 8% of Abbey Wood trips are to Farringdon which makes it a smaller pot to fight over. It's not plausible that Thameslink who run a quarter of the trains to Abbey Wood as TfL all of which get overtaken will get an equal share. The allocation mechanism may be relatively archaic but it won't be that bad. As I understand it direct trains are weighted higher so from other origins Thameslink may get a higher share where their trains will be direct rather than requiring a change at Abbey Wood. Again the ODM shows in reality there aren't a lot of these journeys to Farringdon. There were rumours this was one of the intentions when the service was proposed.

 

[Mattplans]

Another day of Luton-Rainhams being curtailed because of an issue on the Midland Main line.