Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[Annetts key]

whilst agreeing in principle it isn't that straight forward. For instance, our nuclear deterrent relies on American technology and manufacturing. I cant see any UK government being keen to give that up.

Nothing to stop us from exploring obtaining French systems or working with them so that we can maintain our current systems or replace them. That's assuming that we can't manage maintenance and development ourselves.

 

[Krokodil]

Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders. it doesn’t seem like they want to be Danish particularly, they are ethnically Inuit.

They want to be American even less.

Nothing to stop us from exploring obtaining French systems or working with them so that we can maintain our current systems or replace them.

Time is the issue. Trident missiles get swapped out for maintenance every 18 months. So if the US stopped support, that's how long we'd have to source an alternative and make them fit the Vanguard/Dreadnought class submarines.

 

[DarloRich]

Nothing to stop us from exploring obtaining French systems or working with them so that we can maintain our current systems or replace them. That's assuming that we can't manage maintenance and development ourselves.

I don't think you can just change. The whole submarine is built around the missile. From what I understand the warhead we use is a British design ( this seems to be disputed by some) but that the missiles themselves are in a "common user" pool with the USN with the US doing all the maintenance and manufacturing.

Also: Trident is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you

PS - we COULD go to RAF delivered nuclear bombs but they are much more vulnerable than submarine delivered weapons. We could also just bin the whole idea but do you want to do that with the Russians and others acting up? I don't.

 

[Annetts key]

They want to be American even less.


Time is the issue. Trident missiles get swapped out for maintenance every 18 months. So if the US stopped support, that's how long we'd have to source an alternative and make them fit the Vanguard/Dreadnought class submarines.

I don't think you can just change. The whole submarine is built around the missile. From what I understand the warhead we use is a British design ( this seems to be disputed by some) but that the missiles themselves are in a "common user" pool with the USN with the US doing all the maintenance and manufacturing.

Also: Trident is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you

PS - we COULD go to RAF delivered nuclear bombs but they are much more vulnerable than submarine delivered weapons. We could also just bin the whole idea but do you want to do that with the Russians and others acting up? I don't.

Yes, of course it's not simple or straightforward. And time is an issue. But we have in the past built a rocket named Black Arrow. And we are funding a new rocket program - see here

UK Government Invests in UK Orbital Launch Capability for First Time
- Orbex announces £20m direct investment from UK Government as part of Series D fundraising
- Total funding for Series D now at £23m

The UK Government has invested £20 million in spaceflight company Orbex as part of its Series D fundraising.

The investment comes as the UK government vows to develop Britain’s mission to regularly launch into orbit from its shores using UK-manufactured rockets, supporting growth in its expanding space industry and attracting investment from across the globe.

Orbex is the only UK-owned launch services company in the UK. It is developing both small and medium sized space rockets and initial launch operations will take place from SaxaVord Spaceport in Shetland.

 

[DerekC]

Trump's next threat will presumably be to withdraw intelligence support to Ukraine unless he is allowed to buy Greenland.

 

[najaB]

From what I understand the warhead we use is a British design ( this seems to be disputed by some) but that the missiles themselves are in a "common user" pool with the USN with the US doing all the maintenance and manufacturing.

This is correct - UK designed and produced warheads on US designed and built missiles. I'm not 100% sure if the re-entry vehicles are entirely UK produced though.

Edit: Just checked - the RVs are also US produced.

 

[JamesT]

I don't think you can just change. The whole submarine is built around the missile. From what I understand the warhead we use is a British design ( this seems to be disputed by some) but that the missiles themselves are in a "common user" pool with the USN with the US doing all the maintenance and manufacturing.

Indeed. The current Vanguard class submarines started their design with the missile compartment from the US Ohio class. If you were choosing another design, you would have to go back to the drawing board. All four Dreadnought class submarines are already at some stage of construction, the first one started in 2016!
Also, this assumes the French are willing to share their missile design and they won’t put any unreasonable conditions on it.

 

[najaB]

Indeed. The current Vanguard class submarines started their design with the missile compartment from the US Ohio class. If you were choosing another design, you would have to go back to the drawing board. All four Dreadnought class submarines are already at some stage of construction, the first one started in 2016!
Also, this assumes the French are willing to share their missile design and they won’t put any unreasonable conditions on it.

Much more likely is that we would work with the French to service the missiles that we already own*.

Edit: *Have in our posession.

 

[JamesT]

This is correct - UK designed and produced warheads on US designed and built missiles. I'm not 100% sure if the re-entry vehicles are entirely UK produced though.

Edit: Just checked - the RVs are also US produced.

It’s been suggested the UK warheads appear to be merely a variation on the US ones, placing some doubt on how much original design has actually occurred.

Much more likely is that we would work with the French to service the missiles that we already own.

We don’t own any. We lease them from the US. Even assuming in the event of an irrevocable breakdown in the relationship leaving us with those missiles physically in our possession, I’m not sure how much help the French could be with a Lockheed Martin product,

 

[DarloRich]

Trump's next threat will presumably be to withdraw intelligence support to Ukraine unless he is allowed to buy Greenland.

surprised he hasn't already!

We don’t own any. We lease them from the US. Even assuming in the event of an irrevocable breakdown in the relationship leaving us with those missiles physically in our possession, I’m not sure how much help the French could be with a Lockheed Martin product,

In the event of an irrevocable breakdown with the USA we would be out of the nuclear deterrent business. It would take too much time and money to design a system of our own and/or to work with the French to develop one. Much as I would like to go full Ernest Bevin ( "We've got to have this thing over here whatever it costs… We've got to have the bloody Union Jack on top of it") but we cant afford it in time or money.

We might even be out of the nuclear submarine business. I don't know ( i doubt anyone does) how much joint working there is between UK/US on reactor design/technology and on submarine design and technology.

EDIT: The big problem is our defence systems, processes, procedures, procurement and technologies are linked/dependant on the Americans via NATO. I don't know how you unpick that whilst still maintaining any sort of credible defence and we barely have a credible defence force today!

 

[najaB]

We don’t own any. We lease them from the US.

I had to double-check this and we paid for title over 58 Trident missiles which we then put in a shared pool with the USA. So while we don't own any specific missiles, in the event of a breakdown between the US and UK we would be entitled to keep 58 of the 64 currently loaded in the Vanguard submarines. The reason that its referred to as a lease arrangement is down to the shared pool, with all the maintenance being done in the USA.

Even assuming in the event of an irrevocable breakdown in the relationship leaving us with those missiles physically in our possession, I’m not sure how much help the French could be with a Lockheed Martin product,

The bits of the missile that need refurbishment are pretty similar regardless of who manufactured them.

 

[Falcon1200]

Good job that Denmark and by extension Greenland are covered by NATO

And should Russia or China invade Greenland they would be taking on NATO, not just the 'two dog sleds'!

 

[nw1]

surprised he hasn't already!

In the event of an irrevocable breakdown with the USA we would be out of the nuclear deterrent business. It would take too much time and money to design a system of our own and/or to work with the French to develop one. Much as I would like to go full Ernest Bevin ( "We've got to have this thing over here whatever it costs… We've got to have the bloody Union Jack on top of it") but we cant afford it in time or money.

We might even be out of the nuclear submarine business. I don't know ( i doubt anyone does) how much joint working there is between UK/US on reactor design/technology and on submarine design and technology.

EDIT: The big problem is our defence systems, processes, procedures, procurement and technologies are linked/dependant on the Americans via NATO. I don't know how you unpick that whilst still maintaining any sort of credible defence and we barely have a credible defence force today!

So essentially does that mean we're forced to link Trump's backside and support whatever outrageous thing he does otherwise he might effectively deactivate the nuclear deterrent? Would we be forced to take his side on any Greenland invasion?

I suppose our mistake was we always assumed the US would be relatively "OK" and the worst leader we'd get is someone like Nixon or Reagan. Right-wing and with some dodgy policies but not full-on psychopath and/or far-right.

 

[DarloRich]

So essentially does that mean we're forced to link Trump's backside and support whatever outrageous thing he does otherwise he might effectively deactivate the nuclear deterrent? Would we be forced to take his side on any Greenland invasion?

Where have I said anything that silly? My point is that things are not as simple as just telling all of the US forces in the UK or Europe to get lost. While we might want to do that we have to be clear about the impacts and repercussions.

 

[nw1]

Where have I said anything that silly? My point is that things are not as simple as just telling all of the US forces in the UK or Europe to get lost. While we might want to do that we have to be clear about the impacts and repercussions.

Nowhere specifically, but that could be the logical conclusion - Trump is such a psychopath that it's the sort of thing he could, in theory, do in revenge. I certainly hope not, though!

 

[DarloRich]

Nowhere specifically, but that could be the logical conclusion - Trump is such a psychopath that it's the sort of thing he could, in theory, do in revenge. I certainly hope not, though!

anything is possible - the fella is demented

 

[adc82140]

Listening to Today on Radio 4, there is a lot of hand wringing going on in Westminster. A lot of government is still under the illusion that dealing with Trump is like dealing with any other world leader, friend or foe. They don't seem to accept that all diplomatic norms have been thrown out, and this is uncharted territory.

 

[dgl]

Trump is the human manifestation of Cartman, no gifts or special treatment and he has a hissy fit, that's not how a respectable world leader is supposed to act.

 

[nw1]

Perhaps our best hope is that the less extreme members of the US Right can save the US and the world from itself, so that the non-extremist Republicans finally understand that Trump is dragging their country and the world down - and act.

 

[Harpo]

that's now how a world leader is supposed to act.

Depends which bit of the world we’re discussing. Trump’s current behaviours match the worst type of world leaders. Putin probably thinks that Trump understands him now.

 

[YorkshireBear]

BBC Live News Text Updates, 09:13, linked and quoted below.

The letter to the Norweigan PM saying he doesn't feel obligated to act purely for peace because they didn't give him the noble peace prize. I mean if this wasn't the President of the most powerful country on earth, it would be hilarious. As it stands, it is hilarious with just a tinge of sadness.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2k7gv0znmt

Trump references lack of Nobel Peace Prize in letter to Norway's PMpublished at 09:13
09:13​

US President Trump has sent a letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, saying: "The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland."

Trump also says he no longer feels "an obligation to think purely of Peace" after Norway "decided not to give" him the Nobel Peace Prize.

In the message, which Støre confirmed he received to press in Norway, Trump says he can now "think about what is good and proper for the United States of America".

He also questions what right of ownership Denmark has to Greenland: "It’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also."

Støre told national newspaper VG that the message was in response to short message he sent to the president on behalf of himself and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

 

[martin butler]

Thump is in essence a narcissistic bully, and an uneducated one at that, who has through his enablers effectively taken over the USA, and is an dictator If congress do stop him, he will take it out on blue states and try to eliminate any democratic elections, even calling it a state of war, just because someone said no, America won't do anything until his backers start to suffer, so its going to need the nuclear option, to get self interest to join with national interest, Its going to be things like loosing European bases, being kicked out of Nato, having no way to bully others, american economy collapsing, and the money markets dumping the dollar, when that happens, the backers will view Trump as a busted flush, and dump him, MAGA will implode thats when Trump will try to flee,

 

[najaB]

BBC Live News Text Updates, 09:13, linked and quoted below.

He also questions what right of ownership Denmark has to Greenland: "It’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also."

Anyone want to tell him that the Danish claim to Greenland is at least half a century older than his country?

 

[martin butler]

Anyone want to tell him that the Danish claim to Greenland is at least half a century older than his country?

Actually, in the same vein, Vikings found America long before the founding fathers sailed from the UK, So Denmark, Norway, or Sweden by that reckoning should be able to claim large bits of the US.

 

[AndrewE]

BBC Live News Text Updates, 09:13, linked and quoted below.

The letter to the Norweigan PM saying he doesn't feel obligated to act purely for peace because they didn't give him the Nobel peace prize. I mean if this wasn't the President of the most powerful country on earth, it would be hilarious. As it stands, it is hilarious with just a tinge of sadness.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2k7gv0znmt

I heard that on the radio too, but couldn't find it reported anywhere when I looked... I decided that it was so deranged and delusional that I must have dropped off to sleep again and dreamt it!

In a similar vein, about a year ago I heard him saying something like "You can't let people come into the country and disposess the rightful inhabitants of their property" and wondered if he realised that it applied perfectly to what the WASP settlers did to the indigenous peoples.

It seems that he lives in his own utterly selfish bubble with no concern at all for justice or the welfare of anybody outside his immediate circle of sycophants.

 

[brad465]

I think Trump has Obama Derangement syndrome: became President because Obama mocked him in the 2011 White House Correspondents' dinner, wants the Nobel Peace Prize because Obama won it and ripped up Iran nuclear deal because Obama signed it.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Hearing that Trump is inviting Putin to be on the Gaza 'board of peace'.

I think we may need a larger ironymeter!

 

[Bantamzen]

Hearing that Trump is inviting Putin to be on the Gaza 'board of peace'.

I think we may need a larger ironymeter!

I'm certainly going to need a new one, mine's totally broken...

But seriously if this is true then that's going to be an absolute disaster for the region. Interestingly I've noticed that the Home Office is now advising of a higher risk of terrorism in the US to travellers, which sounds pretty ominous if not surprising if Trump really is going to be in charge of "peace" in Gaza. I seriously hope I'm wrong on this, but my gut tells me 2026 is not going to be a good year.

 

[najaB]

I seriously hope I'm wrong on this, but my gut tells me 2026 is not going to be a good year.

It's not off to a good start...

 

[BAFRA77]

BBC Live News Text Updates, 09:13, linked and quoted below.

The letter to the Norweigan PM saying he doesn't feel obligated to act purely for peace because they didn't give him the noble peace prize. I mean if this wasn't the President of the most powerful country on earth, it would be hilarious. As it stands, it is hilarious with just a tinge of sadness.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2k7gv0znmt

Shortly afterwards - Trump has invited Gahr Støre (the same PM) to join this Gaza Peace Board thing - along with Putin.

You literally couldn't make it up...