Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[brad465]

This week Trump is reported to be announcing appointments to replace the statistics' boss he fired and a Fed Governor. Who he picks could have notable market implications:

Donald Trump to appoint Federal Reserve governor and labour statistics chief this week

US president set to tighten grip on economic information and policymaking after controversial sacking of BLS official

www.ft.com

Donald Trump said he would name a new labour statistics boss and fill an open seat on the Federal Reserve board this week as he seeks to tighten his grip on US economic data and policymaking. The US president said he would select a new commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the next three or four days after sacking the previous head following the release of disappointing economic data. He said he would probably choose a new Fed governor over “the next couple of days”.

 

[Tracked]

Trump's currently wandering around on the roof of the White House, as you do (link to video clip on twi ... bluesky) ...

Drew Harwell (@drewharwell.com)

Reporters shouted to ask what he was doing up there and he said he was "taking a little walk." He said something about the White House ballroom and made some gestures but it's not really making a ton of sense yet. Normal stuff

bsky.app

 

[nlogax]

He's a busy chap this week. The White House has (allegedly) told NASA to end its OCO carbon monitoring program and destroy a perfectly serviceable satellite that monitor CO2 levels. OCO-2 is likely to end up being sent to a fiery end burning up in the atmosphere, regardless of it working well and providing vital information to scientists. The og OCO is physically attached to ISS and NASA previously agreed to consider ways to allow private funding to continue to operate it and other equipment attached to ISS.

https://futurism.com/white-house-orders-nasa-destroy-important-satellite

The White House has instructed NASA employees to terminate two major, climate change-focused satellite missions.

As NPR reports, Trump officials reached out to the space agency to draw up plans for terminating the two missions, called the Orbiting Carbon Observatories. They've been collecting widely-used data, providing both oil and gas companies and farmers with detailed information about the distribution of carbon dioxide and how it can affect crop health.

Because climate change can't be happening if a source of scientific proof suddenly drops out of existence.. right?

 

[Thirteen]

Trump's currently wandering around on the roof of the White House, as you do (link to video clip on twi ... bluesky) ...

Drew Harwell (@drewharwell.com)

Reporters shouted to ask what he was doing up there and he said he was "taking a little walk." He said something about the White House ballroom and made some gestures but it's not really making a ton of sense yet. Normal stuff

bsky.app

This make me think he has vascular dementia.

 

[brad465]

The US has officially achieved "reverse Darwinism", where the most unfit in society not only survive, but are given elevated prominence/influence:

Could RFK Jr's move to pull mRNA vaccine funding be a huge miscalculation?

The US is withdrawing $500m for vaccines for diseases like flu and Covid. Health correspondent James Gallagher asks if it's the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk

mRNA vaccines were heralded as a medical marvel that saved lives during the Covid pandemic, but now the US is pulling back from researching them.

US Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr has cancelled 22 projects - worth $500m (£376m) in funding – for tackling infections such as Covid and flu.

So does Kennedy - probably the country's most famous vaccine sceptic – have a point, or is he making a monumental miscalculation?

Prof Adam Finn, vaccine researcher at the University of Bristol, says "it's a bit of both" but ditching mRNA technology is "stupid" and potentially a "catastrophic error".

Let's unpick why.

Kennedy says he has reviewed the science on mRNA vaccines, concluding that the "data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID and flu".

Instead, he says, he would shift funding to "safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate".

So are mRNA vaccines safe? Are they effective? Would other vaccine technologies be better?

And another question is where should mRNA vaccines fit into the pantheon of other vaccine technologies - because there are many:

• Inactivated vaccines use the original virus or bacterium, kill it, and use that to train the immune system - such as the annual flu shot
• Attenuated vaccines do not kill the infectious agent, but make it weaker so it causes a mild infection - such as the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine
• Conjugate vaccines use bits of protein or sugar from a bug, so it triggers an immune response without causing an infection - like for types of meningitis
• mRNA vaccines use a fragment of genetic code that temporarily instructs the body to make parts of a virus, and the immune system reacts to that

Each has advantages and disadvantages, but Prof Finn argues we "overhyped" mRNA vaccines during the pandemic to the exclusion of other approaches, and now there is a process of adjusting.

"But to swing the pendulum so far that mRNA is useless and has no value and should not be developed or understood better is equally stupid, it did do remarkable things," he says.

 

[brad465]

Next up in the firing of officials who don't say what Trump wants to hear:

Pentagon fires intelligence chief after Iran attack assessment

The firing comes just weeks after a White House rebuke of a leaked intelligence report assessing the impact of US strikes on Iran.

www.bbc.co.uk

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has fired the Pentagon's intelligence agency chief, just weeks after a White House rebuke of a review assessing the impact of American strikes on Iran.
Lt Gen Jeffery Kruse will no longer serve as head of US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon said in a statement. Two other senior military commanders have also been ousted by the Pentagon.
The defence department has not offered any immediate explanation on the firings.
In June, President Donald Trump had pushed back strongly on a leaked DIA report that found that attacks on Iran had only set back its nuclear programme by months. The White House declared the agency's assessment "flat out wrong".
Trump had declared the nuclear sites in Iran "completely destroyed", and had accused the media of "an attempt to demean one of the most successful military strikes in history".
Speaking at the Nato summit at the time, Hegseth had said that the report was made on "low intelligence" and that the FBI was probing the leak.
Kruse's exit was first reported by the Washington Post.
The DIA is part of the Pentagon and specialises in military intelligence to support operations. It collects large amounts of technical intelligence, but is distinct from other agencies like the CIA.
It is understood that Hegseth had also ordered the removal of the chief of US Naval reserves and the commander of Naval Special Warfare Command, an anonymous source told Reuters on Friday.
In a statement, US Senator Mark Warner warned that Kruse's sacking was a sign that Trump had a "dangerous habit of treating intelligence as a loyalty test rather than a safeguard for our country".
Trump has removed a number of officials whose analysis have been seen to be at odds with the president.
In July, Trump said that he had ordered his team to dismiss Commissioner of Labor Statistics Erika McEntarfer "immediately", after a report showed that job growth had slowed.
And in April, Trump fired General Timothy Haugh as director of the National Security Agency, along with more than a dozen staff at the White House national security council.
Hegseth has also pushed out a number of military officials at the Pentagon. In February, he fired Air Force General C Q Brown, who was dismissed along with five other admirals and generals.

 

[martin butler]

By the time the firings have stopped, the entire Pentagon, and Defence agency will be in the hands of unqualified people, who's only skill set is telling the dictator in chief what he wants to hear, hell, the entire country will be.

 

[jon0844]

By the time the firings have stopped, the entire Pentagon, and Defence agency will be in the hands of unqualified people, who's only skill set is telling the dictator in chief what he wants to hear, hell, the entire country will be.

That certainly appears to be the Project 2025 plan. It all leads to making Trump (well, more those that control him) the dear leader who doesn't need to worry about anyone requiring him to do things in a proper, constitutional, way.

 

[Annetts key]

By the time the firings have stopped, the entire Pentagon, and Defence agency will be in the hands of unqualified people, who's only skill set is telling the dictator in chief what he wants to hear, hell, the entire country will be.

The last time that Trump was in power, a lot of positions went unfilled. It's looking like under the current administration, it will be just as bad or even worse.

So expect the U.S.government to be even slower and weaker. Never mind making America great again, more like making America greatly broken.

 

[brad465]

And another one:

Trump orders removal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook

Cook says the US president "has no authority to do so" in defiance of Trump's escalatory move against the central bank.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump has said he will immediately remove Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook from her position, a major escalation in his battle against the US central bank.
He said there was "sufficient reason" to believe Cook had made false statements on mortgage agreements, and cited constitutional powers which he said allowed him to remove her.
In response, Cook has said Trump has no authority to fire her and she will not resign.
It is an unprecedented move for the president to dismiss a member of the central bank's leadership, and comes as Trump has put increasing pressure on the Fed - especially its chair Jerome Powell - over what he sees as an unwillingness to lower interest rates.
Cook is one of seven members of the Fed's board of governors, and in this position sits on the 12-member committee which is responsible for setting interest rates in the US.
She voted alongside Powell and most other members of the committee to maintain US interest rates at the Fed's last rate-setting meeting at the end of July.
She was appointed by Trump's predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, in 2022 and is the first African American woman to serve in the role.
Trump's decision to remove Cook will likely raise legal questions, with experts suggesting the White House will need to demonstrate - potentially in court - that it had sufficient reason to fire her.
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so," Cook said in a statement.
"I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022," she added.
"We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent [Trump's] attempted illegal action," Cook's lawyer, Abbe David Lowell, said.
The Federal Reserve has not yet commented on the president's announcement, which he made late on Monday via his social media platform Truth Social.
He posted a letter addressed to Cook in which he informed her of his decision to remove her from the bank's board of governors with immediate effect.
Trump has also repeatedly floated the possibility of firing Powell.
European markets opened slightly down on Tuesday following Trump's decision while the rate the US government has to pay on its bonds, issued to raise money, increased.

 

[Loppylugs]

So let's list the wonderful achievements of the "peacemaker":

1 Greenlanders welcome him (ha ha)
2 Israel is totally flattening Gaza
3 Russia has upped it's attacks on Ukraine

Er, seems like total failure by a total idiot to me.

 

[brad465]

There's been lots of speculation around Trump's health in recent days. There's been the black patch on his hands, and he's reportedly not made any public appearances since Wednesday lunchtime (though his Truth Social account has been active):

Is Donald Trump dead? Rumours swirl after US President goes AWOL

Rumours are swirling that Donald Trump is dead after the US President has not been seen in public for two days.

www.nationalworld.com

Rumours are swirling that Donald Trump is dead after the US President has not been seen in public for two days.
Rumours on social media surrounding US President Donald Trump are nothing new - and often the man himself starts many of them through his use of his Truth Social medium. However, the so-called leader of the free world may not be pleased with the latest spike in searches - surrounding his death.
A rogue post on social site Reddit has gone viral, in which a lack of public appearances by the President on Thursday and Friday may indicate he has passed away. He hasn't. But we all know that doesn't mean the internet moves on.

The initial post said: "POTUS (President of the United States) hasn't been seen since yesterday, wasn't seen today, and has no public events scheduled this weekend. He hasn't even been seen in public since Wednesday, and we don't know if he'll be seen in public until Tuesday.

"Rumours are circulating that he's died. Twitter is having a heyday and, after a federal appeals court ruled 7-4 today that POTUS' tariffs are unconstitutional as they violate Congress' authority over the purse and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, are joking that POTUS saw the ruling and immediately ... killed himself."

 

[Gloster]

I don’t think there is anything in the latest rumour, but it is becoming a question of when, rather than if, he goes. I am sure that those working on their own plans behind the scenes are quite happy to let his health take up all the media attention: their only worry is that he will either drop dead or become so obviously unfit to continue that even B*llsh*t Barbie can’t explain it away before they have got their bandwagon rolling fast enough. To make it clear, I think those who have undemocratic plans were probably reckoning that they would get through the mid-terms in November next year with the help of the MAGA-faithful who would vote Republican as long as Trump was in the White House, but might not be so in thrall to Vance. You have to take the people with you until you have got what you want, then you can forget them.

 

[Annetts key]

From what I can tell, JD Vance is not much liked. So when Trump is no longer fit to continue as President, it will be time to get a fresh supply of popcorn...

 

[brad465]

From what I can tell, JD Vance is not much liked. So when Trump is no longer fit to continue as President, it will be time to get a fresh supply of popcorn...

If Trump were to go near the end of 2026, I wouldn't be surprised if Vance tried to engineer a "Weekend at Bernie's" situation in order to delay taking up office till late January. That way he could in theory run for two full terms on top of the remainder of this term.

 

[scarby]

There's been lots of speculation around Trump's health in recent days. There's been the black patch on his hands, and he's reportedly not made any public appearances since Wednesday lunchtime (though his Truth Social account has been active):

Is Donald Trump dead? Rumours swirl after US President goes AWOL

Rumours are swirling that Donald Trump is dead after the US President has not been seen in public for two days.

www.nationalworld.com

What sort of world have we created where if someone isn't seen or heard of for all of two days then they must be dead?

I am sure, say, Jimmy Carter, or anyone else pre-social media, never had this issue during his presidency.

 

[ainsworth74]

hat sort of world have we created where if someone isn't seen or heard of for all of two days then they must be dead?

I am sure, say, Jimmy Carter, or anyone else pre-social media, never had this issue during his presidency.

Jimmy Carter also wasn't 78 years old at the start of his presidency (now 79), instead he was 52 years old. He also didn't have signs of some sort of health issues due to massive bruising on the back of his hand from what would seem likely to be some sort of IV drip, as well as the rather obvious signs of mental degradation that Trump has been showing (I've said before but check out Trump giving press conferences in 2017 with now, the difference is stark).

I think it's worth recalling that in 2016 Trump was the oldest President ever at 70 years old until he was beaten four years later by Joe Biden who was 78 (and 61 days) and then Trump reclaimed that mantle himself in 2025 being inaugurated at the age of 78 and 220 days old. The US Presidents are not normally this old and so it's not surprising that people are quicker to ask questions about their health.

 

[brad465]

What sort of world have we created where if someone isn't seen or heard of for all of two days then they must be dead?

I am sure, say, Jimmy Carter, or anyone else pre-social media, never had this issue during his presidency.

Jimmy Carter also wasn't 78 years old at the start of his presidency (now 79), instead he was 52 years old. He also didn't have signs of some sort of health issues due to massive bruising on the back of his hand from what would seem likely to be some sort of IV drip, as well as the rather obvious signs of mental degradation that Trump has been showing (I've said before but check out Trump giving press conferences in 2017 with now, the difference is stark).

I think it's worth recalling that in 2016 Trump was the oldest President ever at 70 years old until he was beaten four years later by Joe Biden who was 78 (and 61 days) and then Trump reclaimed that mantle himself in 2025 being inaugurated at the age of 78 and 220 days old. The US Presidents are not normally this old and so it's not surprising that people are quicker to ask questions about their health.

I'd add to this Trump is always in the news, almost always because he wants to be, so if he's not been appearing in front of camera for even a few days, something is up.

 

[jon0844]

I think Trump is in a bad way. The fact old photos and videos have been shared is concerning. The fact there's no official statement is also concerning. The actual photos of him make him look incredibly ill. His posts on Truth Social don't appear as if they were written by him, but rather someone trying to copy his style (Gavin Newsom would have done a better job!).

When Trump spoke not so long ago about hoping to go to heaven, and JD Vance said that if anything happens he's ready and has learned everything he needs to know in the last 200 days, it does make you wonder if his condition is deteriorating at a rapid rate. He may not die imminently, but how long until he's not fit to lead (we can debate if he was ever fit)?

 

[ainsworth74]

When Trump spoke not so long ago about hoping to go to heaven, and JD Vance said that if anything happens he's ready and has learned everything he needs to know in the last 200 days, it does make you wonder if his condition is deteriorating at a rapid rate. He may not die imminently, but how long until he's not fit to lead (we can debate if he was ever fit)?

I'm still feeling good that I got it fairly spot on with my predictions from earlier:

Agreed. I'm not convinced he'll make it through a full term or indeed most of a term. Heck, it's a bit tin foil hat but I wouldn't rule out him not making it through the first week!

I think there's potential that there's a scheme somewhere within the GOP to use Trump to win the election and then shortly after January 20th 2025 Vance will assemble the Cabinet and use the 25th Amendment to make a declaration that Trump is unfit at the same time going on TV/Twitter/etc and making a solemn speech to the effect that: "We've all noticed that our beloved President Donald J Trump has been having some slightly odd behavioural quirks in the last few months but we were so blinded by loyalty and hope for what he could do in office that we ignored these warning signs. However, now that he's taken office it's become clear that these aren't just minor issues and mistake. President Trump is not able to follow through with what the Presidency requires and what our country needs to make sure that we take back our country from the woke leftists that have so damaged our great nation in recent years. The Cabinet and I have therefore been left with no choice but to invoke the 25th Amendment and will assume, with a heavy heart, the role of Acting President." Bada bing bada boom, Vance is Acting President and Trump is completely side-lined and either stews impotently for four years or someone eventually gets around to impeaching him and making Vance the actual President.

Only slightly stumbling block would be if Trump wrote to Congress saying he was in fact fit to do the job then it'll end up being thrown to Congress and require a two-thirds majority in both Houses to confirm he is unfit. If they do Vance continues as Acting President, if they don't Trump would resume the role of President.

I have indeed argued that I reckon they'll 25th Amendment Trump before this is over. But the timing will need to be careful. If they don't do it in the next few months then it'll not happen until much deeper into Trumps term as there's no way that Vance will want to burn a term by finishing off Trumps. If he does more than two years of Trumps remaining term he will use up one of his by virtue of the provisions of the 22nd Amendment.

 

[martin butler]

Trumps vanity is such that he must be seen, he must be heard, I agree that he is not in good health at all, possibly having strokes, He will try to hold onto power for as long as he can, and that means throwing anyone who might be a danger to him under the bus, if he detects it,

I think he is just a puppet, it's really Miller, Thiel etc, who are calling the shots, and using people they control, to heap praise on trump to manipulate him, into doing what they want, he's lazy, and will as long as people make him think he did it, will all be following their own agenda,

He will be wheeled out, to sign decrees, that he didn't write, then put back in his playpen, until he is unable to be used, and if the take-over is already advanced enough, he won't matter, if he's dead or dying, they won't 25th him, they will wait for him to die. but if he were to die, and the work isn't done, then project 25, could unravel and do so very fast.

 

[Annetts key]

224 days so far... And 1237 days to go.

If he's looking bad now, will he even make it to being in office for even one year?

 

[Gloster]

It is becoming a bit like The Last Days of Brezhnev. That is not a good omen.

 

[edwin_m]

I'd add to this Trump is always in the news, almost always because he wants to be, so if he's not been appearing in front of camera for even a few days, something is up.

Also the way the Democrats kept Biden's condition hidden from the public until that became impossible, creating a precedent but perhaps also an expectation for the same to be done for Trump.

 

[Annetts key]

Also the way the Democrats kept Biden's condition hidden from the public until that became impossible, creating a precedent but perhaps also an expectation for the same to be done for Trump.

I think Trump (and his "team") would have tried to keep any health issues hidden anyway. It's not like Biden was the first American President to have health problems that were not disclosed until it became impractical.

 

[brad465]

I think Trump (and his "team") would have tried to keep any health issues hidden anyway. It's not like Biden was the first American President to have health problems that were not disclosed until it became impractical.

I think FDR is probably the most prominent up to now, to the point The Dying President was written about his final year in office before dying. At the Yalta Conference he shocked a lot of attendees with how frail he looked. Perhaps if Trump manages to attend the UN General Assembly this month we could see some particularly new revelations (or some very intense speculation if he doesn't show up).

 

[kristiang85]

At least with Biden, he never really was at the forefront of things when he was President - he was hidden away during his initial campaign, and then was very much in the background whilst in office, so when he was not up to things, it was a lot easier to cover up.

With Trump, he loves the limelight. So, presuming he has had some medical issue which is incapacitating him to a certain degree (lots of theories about a succession of strokes), if he's not seen then the American people will naturally assume that something is very wrong and he won't be fit for office, meaning calls for the 25th to be invoked.

The rumours are starting to be mentioned by mainstream media; usually you'd expect him to do some bombastic press conference to show he's the 'bestest and wellest President ever', but it's not happened yet.

Something is definitely up.

 

[brad465]

At least with Biden, he never really was at the forefront of things when he was President - he was hidden away during his initial campaign, and then was very much in the background whilst in office, so when he was not up to things, it was a lot easier to cover up.

With Trump, he loves the limelight. So, presuming he has had some medical issue which is incapacitating him to a certain degree (lots of theories about a succession of strokes), if he's not seen then the American people will naturally assume that something is very wrong and he won't be fit for office, meaning calls for the 25th to be invoked.

The rumours are starting to be mentioned by mainstream media; usually you'd expect him to do some bombastic press conference to show he's the 'bestest and wellest President ever', but it's not happened yet.

Something is definitely up.

There is of course the possibility that being Labor Day weekend in the US means the administration is taking time off (Vance has also been quiet in recent days). However, even here a President and close team that loves social media and being visible would surely be active, even if not on official business.

 

[bahnause]

Also the way the Democrats kept Biden's condition hidden from the public until that became impossible, creating a precedent but perhaps also an expectation for the same to be done for Trump.

While some accounts suggest cognitive decline, they’re politically charged and often contested. Some argue that Biden’s age-related challenges were exaggerated for partisan gain. While Biden’s missteps often center around memory lapses or verbal stumbles, Trump’s tend to veer into confusion, misstatements, or off-the-cuff remarks that defy logic. Trump urged voters to “go vote November 27,” but the general election was on November 5. He referred to Argentina as a person: “You know, Argentina, great guy. He’s a big Trump guy. He claimed credit for a law passed under Obama in 2014. He mixed up the date of the September 11 attacks and called them 7/11.

 

[nlogax]

Enjoying the current crop of conspiracy theories that suggest Trump currently has a body double for his golfing trips. As theories go this one tops the lunacy cake though I understand why it's being posited by some. Trump is alive and (un)well though it's all but obvious he's not going to make it through this term either by dint of expiring early or via a well-overdue replacement via the 25th amendment.

Those that wish for Trump to vanish shouldn't neglect the fact that the GOP's succession plan and supporting team is full to the brim with potential for even more performative cruelty than we've witnessed up until now. Vance, Miller, Noem, Lutnick, Vought, Patel, plus Trump's own extended family..it'll be a catfight to see what happens next but it will not be pretty.