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Thoughts on the Trump presidency

Nicholas Lewis

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The only people in the US doing well has to be Trumps immediate family, those fellow crooks in his circle of friends, ( you can be they are as corrupt as he is) every time the stocks rise and fall, you can bet theres someone with their hands in the till,

Trump hates Obama because he is a successful black man, and that gets under his skin, how dare a black man be better than him, with his gifted wealth, what he has never grasped is Obama is a very intelligent, educated man, regardless of his skin colour, whereas trump is thick .
Indeed he and his coterie are making a fortune in the oil market every week. Build up the crescendo of a resolution oil price falls. Then bet against an increase before the weekend watch the deal fall apart price rises on a Monday. Go past GO and collect.
 
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nw1

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WHY HAS NO-ONE HERE MENTIONED MY BIG, BEAUTIFUL DAY YET?

47
 

Annetts key

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The U.S. oil companies were already pumping as much or nearly as much as they could before the war against Iran, that's partly why the price of oil before the war was as low as it was, despite the many sanctions against Russian oil, natural gas and petroleum and damage caused by Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia / Russian temporarily controlled areas.

The Russian war against Ukraine was the primary reason for European countries importing U.S. oil, LNG and petroleum products.

I don't have figures, but part of the reason for U.S. oil exports being up, is likely to be that the U.S. government is releasing oil from their massive oil reserves to try to reduce the world wide price (not to help the world, but to try to keep the price of petrol (gasoline), diesel etc. lower in the U.S.A.).

For sure but I was responding to how work arounds are ameliorating much of th Hormuz disruption
The workarounds are only partially effective. As said above, oil refineries are engineered for a particular blend of crude oil. Poor countries are suffering, some are rationing fuel. Some better off countries are supplying oil from oil reserves. And various countries have introduced other measures designed to reduce oil / gas / petrol / diesel / aviation fuel use.

We In the U.K. are not seeing much disruption, mainly the only effect is the price increases. But the situation varies around the world.
 

jupiter

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Would it have something to do with him being one of the most despised men in the world? Would that have something to do with it?

No doubt the resident Russian or whatever Agent-Provacateur will be along soon to tell us how we’ve all been misled by our media, or something else transparent.
 

nw1

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The U.S. oil companies were already pumping as much or nearly as much as they could before the war against Iran, that's partly why the price of oil before the war was as low as it was, despite the many sanctions against Russian oil, natural gas and petroleum and damage caused by Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia / Russian temporarily controlled areas.

The Russian war against Ukraine was the primary reason for European countries importing U.S. oil, LNG and petroleum products.

I don't have figures, but part of the reason for U.S. oil exports being up, is likely to be that the U.S. government is releasing oil from their massive oil reserves to try to reduce the world wide price (not to help the world, but to try to keep the price of petrol (gasoline), diesel etc. lower in the U.S.A.).


The workarounds are only partially effective. As said above, oil refineries are engineered for a particular blend of crude oil. Poor countries are suffering, some are rationing fuel. Some better off countries are supplying oil from oil reserves. And various countries have introduced other measures designed to reduce oil / gas / petrol / diesel / aviation fuel use.

We In the U.K. are not seeing much disruption, mainly the only effect is the price increases. But the situation varies around the world.

It does make you wonder whether the US government are promoting this war to boost their own oil industry. Just idle speculation - I don't have evidence for this - but it does make you wonder.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The U.S. oil companies were already pumping as much or nearly as much as they could before the war against Iran, that's partly why the price of oil before the war was as low as it was, despite the many sanctions against Russian oil, natural gas and petroleum and damage caused by Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia / Russian temporarily controlled areas.

The Russian war against Ukraine was the primary reason for European countries importing U.S. oil, LNG and petroleum products.

I don't have figures, but part of the reason for U.S. oil exports being up, is likely to be that the U.S. government is releasing oil from their massive oil reserves to try to reduce the world wide price (not to help the world, but to try to keep the price of petrol (gasoline), diesel etc. lower in the U.S.A.).


The workarounds are only partially effective. As said above, oil refineries are engineered for a particular blend of crude oil. Poor countries are suffering, some are rationing fuel. Some better off countries are supplying oil from oil reserves. And various countries have introduced other measures designed to reduce oil / gas / petrol / diesel / aviation fuel use.

We In the U.K. are not seeing much disruption, mainly the only effect is the price increases. But the situation varies around the world.
Chinese actually outsmarted the the rest of the world again by building up huge stocks over the last couple of years. This has allowed them to accept much reduced imports over last few mths yes stocks only last so long but its reckoned they have 1.2B barrels. US has about 450m. Chinese also electrifying road and commercial transport at a very fast rate so demand destruction going on. When it comes to gas they've accepted the reduction and just ramped up coal plants but again there solar and wind build out is progressing at a scale that outruns the RoW put together.

The cynical part of me says Trump and his team could see the demand destruction coming in fossil fuels and the harm it could do to them so leats remove some supply from the mkt to keep prices higher.
 

jon0844

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Chinese actually outsmarted the the rest of the world again by building up huge stocks over the last couple of years. This has allowed them to accept much reduced imports over last few mths yes stocks only last so long but its reckoned they have 1.2B barrels. US has about 450m. Chinese also electrifying road and commercial transport at a very fast rate so demand destruction going on. When it comes to gas they've accepted the reduction and just ramped up coal plants but again there solar and wind build out is progressing at a scale that outruns the RoW put together.

The cynical part of me says Trump and his team could see the demand destruction coming in fossil fuels and the harm it could do to them so leats remove some supply from the mkt to keep prices higher.

Trump has been bragging about making more money as oil prices go up, and now he's saying he loves inflation (possibly because it harms those on low wages more).

The oil companies love the crisis too as they've put up prices globally whether affected or not. Look at the Q1 profits (just 30 days were during the war) from Shell and BP, and then let's see the Q2 figures.

Add in the rollercoaster ride on the stock market as Trump makes threats and backs down and the entire situation seems to be just to make him and his family richer (as well as those who stay the most fiercely loyal to him).

It won't happen again though as we're all now seeing that it's time to wean ourselves off the reliance for oil and gas. I am sure the oil companies know this but will always cash in as much as they can because it's all about profits now and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.
 

Gloster

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It does make you wonder whether the US government are promoting this war to boost their own oil industry. Just idle speculation - I don't have evidence for this - but it does make you wonder.

It is not specifically promoting war in order to improve the prospects of one industry. The basis of the policy of Trump and his close associates is to run the USA’s economy so that it will be of the greatest financial advantage to them and a small group of cronies. If improving the profits of the oil industry best fulfils this objective, that is what they will do.
 

jon0844

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It is not specifically promoting war in order to improve the prospects of one industry. The basis of the policy of Trump and his close associates is to run the USA’s economy so that it will be of the greatest financial advantage to them and a small group of cronies. If improving the profits of the oil industry best fulfils this objective, that is what they will do.

I think Trump had little choice in what happened once he agreed that Iran was just days away from having a nuclear weapon by Netanyahu. Even now, as Trump thinks he's negotiating a fantastic deal, Israel goes ahead and starts a bombing campaign the same weekend as if to say 'no you're not'.

Of course, Trump and is family are dead keen on redeveloping Gaza (and later, other territories taken over by Israel, and perhaps that island off Albania - although that deal might be off, for now) so all of this will be worth it - for the Trump family - in the long-term. It's not as if he gives a toss about the plight of the American citizens beneath him.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I think Trump had little choice in what happened once he agreed that Iran was just days away from having a nuclear weapon by Netanyahu. Even now, as Trump thinks he's negotiating a fantastic deal, Israel goes ahead and starts a bombing campaign the same weekend as if to say 'no you're not'.
He had a choice in starting it in the first place and had he had sensible security advisor like John Bolton it would have been a different outcome
 

najaB

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He had a choice in starting it in the first place and had he had sensible security advisor like John Bolton it would have been a different outcome
What a strange world we live in when John Bolton is seen as the voice of reason...

But anyway, you're not disagreeing with what @jon0844 said: the game was over once Trump agreed with the "weeks/days away from having a nuclear weapon" line. There's a good compilation video of Bibi making that claim for some thirty years, but the assessment of the US intelligence agencies, and hence the prior National Security Advisors, has been that they were more likely years away and that there was no need for direct US military action.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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What a strange world we live in when John Bolton is seen as the voice of reason...

But anyway, you're not disagreeing with what @jon0844 said: the game was over once Trump agreed with the "weeks/days away from having a nuclear weapon" line. There's a good compilation video of Bibi making that claim for some thirty years, but the assessment of the US intelligence agencies, and hence the prior National Security Advisors, has been that they were more likely years away and that there was no need for direct US military action.
Compared to Rubio he is that's how bad things have become
 

Uncle Buck

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Which may beg a question "Is the US likely to be better off with a lame duck Trump for his final 2 years, or his stand in Vance resented by ultra Trump loyalists - almost as much as by Democrats?"

And a second question "Would Vance be better for Britain, Europe and the World than Trump?"

All scenarios sound less than positive, not least because Democrats have no strong candidate to coalesce around. Rather too similar to us over here.
It has been established that Trump Always Chickens Out- or at least, usually. While I am sure Vance would be much less likely to indulge in some of Trump’s properly bonkers ideas- like his ballroom or invading Canada- would he be more likely to “chicken out” on issues of substance? Or would he be a more effective Trump? I think for instance Vance would probably quit Nato. I’m not sure which is less in the interests of this country.
It is not specifically promoting war in order to improve the prospects of one industry. The basis of the policy of Trump and his close associates is to run the USA’s economy so that it will be of the greatest financial advantage to them and a small group of cronies. If improving the profits of the oil industry best fulfils this objective, that is what they will do.
Historically most US presidents have had the wisdom to understand that if the rest of the world is doing well they will buy American products and finance expansion by borrowing American money, and that this will enrich the American upper class most of all.
 

brad465

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Maybe someone is trying to send Trump some sort of warning sign:


When the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to the White House on Sunday for the first-ever professional sporting event at the US presidential residence, many of those in attendance will be keeping their eyes on the sky.

About 4,300 people are expected at the invite-only mixed martial arts event on the South Lawn, with another 85,000 expected at a nearby fan zone.

A lawsuit failed to halt the event, but hot weather and thunderstorms expected to sweep across the city on Sunday could dampen the spectacle, or send some of those thousands rushing for cover.

The action is set to start at 20:00 EDT (midnight GMT, 01:00 BST), during a window when the National Weather Service expects the air to thicken with humidity exceeding 70% and the temperature to hover around 80F (27C).

The agency has warned "damaging thunderstorms" may shake the region in the evening, and it forecasts a 70% chance of rain that could drop as much as half an inch of water on Washington.

The event coincides with President Donald Trump's 80th birthday, which is also Flag Day, and is part of celebrations for America's 250th anniversary.

The seven-bout card was arranged between Trump and his longstanding friend Dana White, UFC president.

The UFC spent about $60m (£45m) on the event, including $700,000 for grass repairs afterwards on a lawn that hosts the annual Easter Egg Roll.

The centrepiece is the "Claw" - a 92ft high metal structure that looms over the octagon and many of the seats. It weighs 600 tonnes.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Trumps 80th birthday present to the world is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the 40th time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cj0grpyg4v1t

US President Donald Trump has confirmed Pakistan's report that the US and Iran have reached a deal.

"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," he writes on Truth Social.

"I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade," he says.

"Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"
 
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ainsworth74

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I was referring to the American economy being in such a state. That a social security programme, intended only the really desperate. Has become a mass programme.

I'm not entirely convinced that SNAP has become a) a mass programme nor that b) it's a particular reason for the US economy (or Government finances in general) being in a state.

SNAP cost in Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 (October 2024 to September 2025 around $102bn or around 1.4% of Federal spending. In FY 2024, SNAP served an average of 41.7 million participants per month. Federal SNAP spending totalled $99.8 billion and benefits averaged $187.20 per participant per month. This table produced by US Department of Agriculture shows that actual participation rates are at their lowest levels since 2010 and the inflation adjusted spending is also broadly in line with 2010 (though both spending and participation rates are considerably higher than pre-2008 financial crisis, perhaps a testament to the unevenness of the US recovery from that crash as in many other places):

snap_participation_and_spending.png
(Chart shows same information as described above)


Whilst Trumps Big Beautiful Bill is going to come along and tighten requirements further (particularly around work requirements) the eligibility criteria are already fairly stringent. You can only have quite limited levels of savings/resources:

Currently, households may have $3,000 in countable resources (such as cash or money in a bank account) or $4,500 in countable resources if at least one member of the household is age 60 or older, or is disabled. These amounts are updated annually.

However, certain resources are NOT counted when determining eligibility for SNAP:
  • A home and lot;
  • Resources of people who receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI);
  • Resources of people who receive Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF; also known as welfare); and
  • Most retirement and pension plans (withdrawals from these accounts may count as either income or resources depending on how often they occur).
Depending on which state you live in, you may be able to have more resources than the above limits and still be eligible for SNAP. Most state agencies have adopted broad-based categorical eligibility (BBCE), which allows state agencies to align income and resource limits with their TANF-funded programs. Under BBCE, households are categorically eligible for SNAP if they are eligible to receive a TANF or maintenance of effort (MOE) state-funded non-cash benefit. Even if you meet the BBCE income and resource limit in your state, you will still need to meet non-financial eligibility rules and have an income low enough to receive SNAP benefits.

The broad income level however is set as follows:

In most cases, your household must meet both the gross and net income limits described below or you are not eligible for SNAP and cannot receive benefits.

Gross income means a household's total, non-excluded income, before any deductions have been made.

Net income means gross income minus allowable deductions.

A household with an elderly or disabled person only has to meet the net income limit, as described on the elderly and disabled page.

If all members of your household receive Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Security Income (SSI), or in some places other general assistance, your household may be deemed “categorically eligible” for SNAP because you have already been determined eligible for another means-tested program.

Most state agencies have adopted broad-based categorical eligibility (BBCE), which allows state agencies to align income and resource limits with their TANF-funded programs. Under BBCE, households are categorically eligible for SNAP if they are eligible to receive a TANF or maintenance of effort (MOE) state-funded non-cash benefit. Even if you meet the BBCE income and resource limit in your state, you will still need to meet non-financial eligibility rules and have an income low enough to receive SNAP benefits.

The information provided in the table below applies to households in the 48 contiguous states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and U.S. Virgin Islands that apply for SNAP between Oct. 1, 2025, through Sept. 30, 2026.

Table 1: SNAP Income Eligibility Limits - Oct. 1, 2025, through Sept. 30, 2026
Household SizeGross monthly income
(130 percent of poverty)
Net monthly income
(100 percent of poverty)
1$1,696$1,305
2$2,292$1,763
3$2,888$2,221
4$3,483$2,680
5$4,079$3,138
6$4,675$3,596
7$5,271$4,055
8$5,867$4,513
Each additional member+$596+$459
* SNAP gross and net income limits are higher in Alaska and Hawaii.


The BBCE above can make things a bit more generous on a State by State basis. For instance in Idaho you can have $5,000 and an income at up to 130% of the Federal Poverty level. In Virginia there's no limit on assets and your income can be 200% of the Federal Poverty level. It's by no means stingy when there are 40 odd million participants but I think suggestions that SNAP is a mass programme are wide of the mark and the suggestion that $100bn of annual spending is somehow sinking the US? That's crackers when the US Budget is in the region of $7tn (i.e. $100bn vis $7,000bn) with a budget deficit approaching $2tn. Even if you cancelled SNAP entirely the deficit would remain gargantuan. It wouldn't quite be a rounding error of a reduction in the deficit but it wouldn't be far off!
 

brad465

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Assuming Newsom is telling the truth, the US is becoming hard to distinguish from Russia:


Gavin Newsom said on Monday that Donald Trump directed the US Department of Justice (DoJ) to investigate him and his wife Jennifer Siebel Newsom.

The California governor said in a video statement that federal agents had knocked on the doors of family friends and former employees in recent days as part of an effort to find a crime, demanding records and “abusing the grand jury process”.


“Donald Trump isn’t just coming after me because of my mean tweets, he’s coming after me because I am considering running for president. Because he hates that I have consistently called him out over and over again for his lies and deceit,” Newsom said.

The Guardian has approached the justice department for comment.
This also implies Trump wants a third term, given Trump would have no direct electoral showdown with Newsom otherwise.
 

najaB

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Assuming Newsom is telling the truth, the US is becoming hard to distinguish from Russia
Given the other people that the DoJ has gone after, for such spurious reasons - for example Jerome Powell because the renovations of the Federal Reserve building went over budget* - I have no doubt believing that Newsom is telling the truth.

*Yes, the irony of DJT going after someone for an over-budget building project ($1.3 million Reflecting Pool costing over $14 million, the $200 million ballroom now budgeted at $1 billion) isn't lost on me!
 

brad465

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I can't find any news' articles verifying this, but apparently this was part of Trump's speech earlier. If it's true this is what he's saying, the decline is real:

"The Straits of Dover. Full of olive oil. I said we'll close them and that cost the US taxpayer $ 200 bn".
"And now we've done a deal and the Dire Straits are open once again. That cost another $ 200 bn".
"And they've even based a tv programme on me. It's called 'Deal or No Deal'. Best programme ever".
"And Netanyobo said there are tunnels everywhere. There's a tunnel under the Channel. Full of Hummus. Number one terrorist group. Even pretends to be a chick-pea dip".
"The World Cup. I'm going to score the winning goal. Some guy called Kane; Michael Kane. He's a loser. Never scores any goals"
"And they even have this country in Britain called Iceland. They have many embassies in the high streets. I'm going to take it over".
 

Purple Train

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I can't find any news' articles verifying this, but apparently this was part of Trump's speech earlier. If it's true this is what he's saying, the decline is real:
I can't find anything on it either, so I assume it is a hoax/someone leaked the script for Spitting Image.

The sad part - from both a dislike of Trump and a dislike of post-truth - is that what he actually said is probably more dangerous, given the mood he's in.
 

Harpo

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I can't find anything on it either, so I assume it is a hoax/someone leaked the script for Spitting Image.

The sad part - from both a dislike of Trump and a dislike of post-truth - is that what he actually said is probably more dangerous, given the mood he's in.
The problem with Trump is that he must be nigh on impossible to satirise.

As for Spitting Image, where is it in our hour of need?
 

AlterEgo

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I can't find any news' articles verifying this, but apparently this was part of Trump's speech earlier. If it's true this is what he's saying, the decline is real:
We don't need to post stuff that's so obviously fake to undermine Trump.
 

martin butler

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If Newson does decide to stand in the presidential elections, I would imagine it will be gloves off, if he's up against Trump, who constitutionally shouldn't even be standing and Newson can show proof of Trumps attempts to smear him, especially if it's found Newson unlike trump does not have any skeletons,

I don't think Trump, as much as he may want to, will be standing, I think the puppet master's will be ditching him after the mid-terms, especially if the attempts to cancel, or impede them fails, which I think will happen, Congress with a democratic majority, are going to be after every criminal in trumps empire, including him, he won't be able to push back, so the DOP will be under pressure to 25th him, he will of course, refuse, and turn against his own people,

How will he leave power? I think he will be allowed to "escape" to another country, possibly not Israel now, as Mossad have no use for him, and might even see him as a threat, if he blabbers too much,
 

najaB

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I don't think Trump, as much as he may want to, will be standing, I think the puppet master's will be ditching him after the mid-terms, especially if the attempts to cancel, or impede them fails, which I think will happen, Congress with a democratic majority, are going to be after every criminal in trumps empire, including him, he won't be able to push back, so the DOP will be under pressure to 25th him, he will of course, refuse, and turn against his own people.
He looks even more tired, unwell, and out of it than Biden did. The best thing that could happen for the Dems would be if he did run, but there's no way that the GOP would let him. I'll be quite surprised if he sees out his whole term.
 

dgl

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I suppose the big difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden might have been succumbing to old age but at least he didn't do anything stupid or unhinged and let people around him help, Trump on the other hand has gone full nutso and doesn't listen to anyone with any amount of sanity!
 

najaB

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I suppose the big difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden might have been succumbing to old age but at least he didn't do anything stupid or unhinged and let people around him help, Trump on the other hand has gone full nutso and doesn't listen to anyone with any amount of sanity!
I know that the comments are specifically about the Iran war, but listening to DJT trying to spin the abject defeat of US power in Iran into a win shows two things clearly: he treats the US people with absolute contempt as he tries to gaslight them, and he really isn't all there mentally or physically:
President Trump spoke at the G7 summit in France today about the tentative deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Oh, that and that Marco Rubio has zero self-worth.
 

ainsworth74

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Oh, that and that Marco Rubio has zero self-worth.
Though it's entertaining watching him and Vance playing keep away and trying to avoid being tarred by Trumps unpopularity as they eye up their own runs in 2028.
 

brad465

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There's a part of me thinking the best way for countries to get favourable deals with the US, is for them to ask for the US to invade them, then Trump will TACO and sell out the US in the process.
 

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