theironroad
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Thing is, there are many off peak trains that have plenty of spare capacity and that's were the cheap fares are offered.
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The Telegraph: Possible First Group Break Up?
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I know, and I'm not seriously advocating withdrawing cheap fares. I benefit from them myself. I was following up the earlier post that said fares were "bewildering".
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Three observations:
a) if FirstGroup sells on a rail franchise, the new owner has to deliver First's contract, not the bid they might have made at the time
b) if a rail franchise changed hands, DfT would want some extra benefits for passengers for "change of control".
First are likely to go for partners first (MTR, Trenitalia). There are plenty of DfT rail franchise passport holders other than the well-known names.
MTR has deep pockets and a good reputation; Trenitalia will have the backing of the new government in Rome.
If First has any family silver it's GWR, but the franchise length is uncertain on the current schedule. We know TPE is loss-making (and part of the problem).
a) if FirstGroup sells on a rail franchise, the new owner has to deliver First's contract, not the bid they might have made at the time
b) if a rail franchise changed hands, DfT would want some extra benefits for passengers for "change of control".
First are likely to go for partners first (MTR, Trenitalia). There are plenty of DfT rail franchise passport holders other than the well-known names.
MTR has deep pockets and a good reputation; Trenitalia will have the backing of the new government in Rome.
If First has any family silver it's GWR, but the franchise length is uncertain on the current schedule. We know TPE is loss-making (and part of the problem).
They would be mortified if they had to back out of West Coast Partnership bidding, the future flagship and a guaranteed long franchise.
c) First's problems go well beyond the rail division, and the bus/overseas businesses may be easier to sell.
Their main aim will be to stabilise the business and cash flow for the long term.
c) First's problems go well beyond the rail division, and the bus/overseas businesses may be easier to sell.
Their main aim will be to stabilise the business and cash flow for the long term.
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Given the new Italian government sacked most of the FS Board last week and appointed new people I suspect Trenitalia won't be in the running for long. The new government has been specifically critical of too much money and effort being expended on high speed lines and "foreign adventures" to the detriment of commuter and inter-urban rail services in Italy. We shall see what happens but I wouldn't be shocked to see FS pull out of the West Coast Partnership along with First also withdrawing.
MTR is getting a hammering in its native Hong Kong though. There are allegations of mismanagement on the Shatin - Central link project with contractors not building concrete structures correctly and MTR personnel apparently "turning a blind eye". There are also allegations that senior managers knew of these issues despite their denials. Furthermore the contractors alleged to have cut corners have refused to appear in front of a government inquiry.
There are also calls for MTR to be stripped of its property development rights for any future schemes. Train service reliability has also been variable in recent times as MTR struggle with the effects of ageing infrastructure and resultant defects. There is a zero tolerance of any delays in HK with government demanding formal investigations if trains are delayed by anything more than 5 minutes.
I suspect pressure will build for MTR to spend more time and money in its native Hong Kong rather than taking on yet more foreign investments.
As I said in a separate post the new Italian government takes a rather different view about what FS should do.
DenmarkRail
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First should (in my view)
-Pull out of WCP
-Sell 50% of SWR to another operator / MTR
-Sell TPE
-Retain GWR
-Pull out of WCP
-Sell 50% of SWR to another operator / MTR
-Sell TPE
-Retain GWR
dorsetdesiro
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Wow, serious news here!
GWR and TPE could look attractive to Trenitalia for their intercity/express services in case they miss out on the West Coast partnership. MTR already own a small share in SWR then it's possible it may become a 100% owned MTR company after buying out First's share.
As for Stagecoach possibly getting SWR, that would be fantastic. They may have done badly with Virgin East Coast and has its fair share of criticisms across the board - what transport company doesn't? This is Britain, hardly Japan. I was mostly satisfied with their running of SWT, they had it for 20 years so had more experience and know-how of the network. Stagecoach may have managed other franchises terribly but perhaps they're a better fit with South Western so they should take it back.
Stagecoach South Western Railway must happen!
GWR and TPE could look attractive to Trenitalia for their intercity/express services in case they miss out on the West Coast partnership. MTR already own a small share in SWR then it's possible it may become a 100% owned MTR company after buying out First's share.
As for Stagecoach possibly getting SWR, that would be fantastic. They may have done badly with Virgin East Coast and has its fair share of criticisms across the board - what transport company doesn't? This is Britain, hardly Japan. I was mostly satisfied with their running of SWT, they had it for 20 years so had more experience and know-how of the network. Stagecoach may have managed other franchises terribly but perhaps they're a better fit with South Western so they should take it back.
Stagecoach South Western Railway must happen!
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dorsetdesiro
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The current GWR brand/livery hopefully won't change when GWR changes hands to the new owner, it should be non-negiotable like ScotRail. I really like its smart contemporary dark green & brushed silver theme. The risk is that it still would be GWR but with a new different look & colours decided by the new owner.
If SWR returns to Stagecoach then very little would need to be done about the brand/livery as there is still a lot of SWT still remaining so the First-MTR version of the SWR logo, with the blue network logo, can be swapped with an updated Stagecoach designed SWR logo then the train fleet would not require new vinyls which the old SWT livery could be continued.
The other trains already refurbished with the SWR colours would need to be changed back, also there's the precidament of the 701s/707s/442s, oh dear, so many questions!
The above may not happen, but no harm in dreaming for a bit! I'm not satisfied with First-MTR so would welcome a change of management.
If SWR returns to Stagecoach then very little would need to be done about the brand/livery as there is still a lot of SWT still remaining so the First-MTR version of the SWR logo, with the blue network logo, can be swapped with an updated Stagecoach designed SWR logo then the train fleet would not require new vinyls which the old SWT livery could be continued.
The other trains already refurbished with the SWR colours would need to be changed back, also there's the precidament of the 701s/707s/442s, oh dear, so many questions!
The above may not happen, but no harm in dreaming for a bit! I'm not satisfied with First-MTR so would welcome a change of management.
Robertj21a
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It's certainly looking quite a possibility that First might end up having to pull out of the WCP. If Trenitalia and MTR now also have more problems on their home territory then we're reducing potential UK operators quite quickly.
As others have said, come back Stagecoach !
As others have said, come back Stagecoach !
Stagecoach would need to acquire the company which holds the SWR franchise. This company has a franchise commitment re 442s and 701s therefore I’d expect that to be carried through. Whether the actual branding forms part of the contract is a different matter.
All this assumes that certain items arent cut from the franchise through renegotiation first! The problem with that is there will be contracts in place for refurbishment / new trains which could be as expensive to cancel as to complete.
Abellio are also under some political pressure at home from opposition MPs for their foreign adventures...
If Stagecoach does come back it still won't sort things.
Isn't one of the features of the most recently awarded franchises that not only is the franchise awarded to a specific limited company (which was always the case) but also that whoever owns that company is not allowed to plaster their name and corporate image all over everything - each recent franchise has a brandname which transfers when the franchise changes hands, and has to be used. It took the DfT something like 20 years to realise that the corporate ego trip was being paid for by them in the form of reduced premium or increased subsidy every time a franchise was awarded.
dorsetdesiro
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Yes, Stagecoach would be required to carry through the terms like handling the 442s they got rid of previously. The 701s coming in would be interesting for them as they're not a usual Bombardier customer, it seemed clear SWT would have been aiming for an all Siemens fleet then they would have ordered many more 707s instead of 701s.
The current SWR refurb programme could complicate things for Stagecoach. I expect those trains already being worked on to continue then rework these at a later date. As there are many still unrefurbished in Stagecoach/SWT colours then it would be cost effective to leave things and just change the logo vinyls.
Then you could see some trains with the blue-silver SWR livery but with red SWT interiors, unchanged from before (yet to be refreshed) or brand new changed back from the dark blue interiors!
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dorsetdesiro
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True, not helped by the NR issues and strike action, then things obviously would not miracluousy improve overnight. There were some terms Stagecoach may have not agreed with hence them losing the franchise before. Maybe evident from the problems we are now seeing then the DfT may be humbled to concede on some points like if for instance Stagecoach may intend to protect guards' jobs then strike action could be reduced or stop.
As said Stagecoach have 20 years experience that I trust them better to run South Western than another company coming in with less knowledge of the network.
If the foreign operators are under pressure in their own countries then focus less on or withdraw from their international subisdaries then this can't be bad news for British companies like Stagecoach & Go Ahead also any new UK based operators to enter the rail market.
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SW is suffering from the same problems as Southern has for decades (especially in the SN metro area) pre timetable change: The dwell times are now unrealistic so need increasing and there is basically no padding on route anymore as it has all got eaten up by longer dwell times, until there is TT recast no chance of significant improvements.
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Esker-pades
Established Member
To be fair, those very cheap advance fares are only released when there is lower demand. I find it very hard to get any kind of cheap journey on certain TOCs (GWR, XC) and at "popular" times of day.
Example: When travelling from London to Edinburgh and back (which I do quite a lot), the only way I can get cheap fares (and I am booking nearly 3 months in advance sometimes) is to choose either the 7am train from London, some of the very slow services via Birmingham (except the ones that are really expensive) or a train that arrives at the destination at midnight.
Most of the more commuter TOCs don't offer advance fares, certainly not on the stupidly overcrowded peak time services.
northwichcat
Veteran Member
Seems they have Greyhound and Greyhound's low cost subsidy Boltbus. Could Boltbus finished up being acquired by Megabus or Flixbus?
The only rolling stock difference between the bids was whether the 707 were retained (Stagecoach) or replaced with 701s (First) otherwise identical i.e. lots of 701s as the new build stock. The Desiro City has lots of issues due to the heating duct reducing usable floor space (Aventra have heated floors instead) and cable routeing and access in the vestibule area requiring ceiling panels to be easily removable so can't have enough of grab rails /handles in the vestibules to meet requirements so it would have been very difficult to go for more Siemens as DfT were aware of the problems and had opaque metro spec. test, the SE franchise metro spec test is now very clearly spelt out.
Stagecoach are actually very big Bombardier customers 220 (VTWC) 222 (EMT) 170 (EMT)
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Journeyman
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The main reason Stagecoach did well with SWT is that their original 1996 franchise agreement was extremely conservative in terms of what they needed to invest, and they then managed to drive a series of hard bargains at renewals, ending up with a pretty blinding deal that made SWT so profitable they didn't know what to do with all the cash.
If they came back, they'd never be able to operate on those terms again.
Yep completely agreed. The TfL area travel card allocation were also pretty generous to them which would never be as good with Oyster PAYG and more working from home.
DfT finally went hard ball when looking for the 2 year direct award and stagecoach said "no".
Mintona
Established Member
Having had a quick search for Italian railway staff’s uniforms, I see a lot of hats on display. If that’s the case then I’m all for a takeover. Hats are underrated.
What about the proposed 5 TPD all standard orcats raid open access KX/Edinburgh service they have rights to operate from 2021?
Taking into account all their financial problems, and fact that Huntingdon to Pboro 4 tracking has apparently been abandoned, and the confusion caused by VTEC collapse/proposed new East Coast Partnership and fact they have not ordered any trains for it yet, I am thinking it may well not happen
Taking into account all their financial problems, and fact that Huntingdon to Pboro 4 tracking has apparently been abandoned, and the confusion caused by VTEC collapse/proposed new East Coast Partnership and fact they have not ordered any trains for it yet, I am thinking it may well not happen
KashmireHawker
Member
Was wondering myself what it would mean for the proposed "East Coast Trains" - particularly that since the rights were given in 2016, there has been absolutely nothing about it. At least Hull Trains are safe til December 2029, with new rolling stock on order and with them being the best Open Access Operator, it would be mad to change them!
On the wider context, if such a deal was done, Trenitalia would have 4 franchises to play with, along with HT and give them a major foothold not that many were probs expecting, when they took control of C2C last year. Who the hell knows re the bid for West Coast Partnership too.
Up 1.3% on the day so far … not a huge move, but I guess that's what happens when a period of (negative) uncertainty starts to turn into more concrete action which should help the company survive … the worst case scenarios start to get taken out of people's price targets …
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Why would this change make any difference to rail operations?
DenmarkRail
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I'm writing an article on my website about this now - Can we just confirm that GWR is profitable, and it is SWR, and TPE that are not?
SNCF are part of the stagecoach/virgin bid for WCP, and own 70% of Keolis - who've now got the W&B franchise, as well as the govia franchises (35% owned)
theironroad
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I don't know what website or article you're writing, but I'd suggest that asking on these chat boards for factual information about a company's profitability isn't exactly doing due factual diligence. You need to consult the first group accounts, but aside from general info I don't think they break down rail business accounts into TOC level.
theironroad
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Does anyone who is suggesting that stagecoach could be re-awarded the swt/swr contract seriously think that's going to happen?
I'd imagine the DfT would rather see below freeze over before trying to turn back the clock.
Even if it was the most sensible option financially and from an operational perspective, the political backlash would be extreme and that alone would prevent Grayling and his minority government from doing it.
I'd imagine the DfT would rather see below freeze over before trying to turn back the clock.
Even if it was the most sensible option financially and from an operational perspective, the political backlash would be extreme and that alone would prevent Grayling and his minority government from doing it.
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