The Prediction League: Euro 2012

[andrew bell]

SEMI-FINALS:

Wed 27/06 E311 Portugal 1 v 2 Spain (1945)
Thu 28/06 E312 Germany 2 v 0 Italy (1945)

Cards 6
Goals 5

 

[Ivo]

DUMMY SEMI-FINALS:

Wed 27/06 E311 Portugal 1 v 1 Spain (1945)
Thu 28/06 E312 Germany 3 v 1 Italy (1945)

Cards 7
Goals 6

I might as well put some predictions in; at least that way I'll be certain to keep an interest in this thread!

5th isn't bad I guess. Best of the rest, correctly predicted the result of all four matches (why didn't I do an accumulator? ) and only one off for goals.

I'll take that Would much rather be best of the rest now than next Sunday.

Seriously though, how the Hell did SS4 do that? He's been struggling for the whole competition and then suddenly gets lucky!

 

[gnolife]

(Not a valid post)

Portugal 10 - 10 Spain (finishes 142 - 143 on penalties)
Germany 34 - 1 Italy
Cards - 56
Goals - 55

(yes, someone might not be being serious here)

 

[Ivo]

• Player A has a roughly one-in-two chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals, with no obvious pattern of how (s)he would do so emerging.
• Player B will be eliminated unless the result is 0-0, in which case (s)he will qualify for the Semi-Finals.
• Player C has a roughly two-in-three chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals; however, (s)he is likely to be eliminated if the result is a draw and/or at least one team fails to score.
• Player D will be eliminated unless the result is 0-0, in which case (s)he will qualify for the Semi-Finals, or the result is 1-1 and precisely four cards are shown, in which case he will be entered into a tie-break situation.
• Player E will qualify for the Semi-Finals unless no more than three cards are shown and the score is either 0-0 or 2-1, the latter of which will be subject to a tie-break situation.
• Player F will qualify for at least a tie-break situation unless precisely four cards are shown and the score is 2-1 or five or more cards are shown and the score is either 1-2 or 2-1.
• Player G has already been eliminated.
• Player H will qualify for the Semi-Finals if precisely one goal is scored; otherwise, (s)he is eliminated.
• Player I has already been eliminated.
• Player J has a roughly one-in-two chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals, but is unlikely to if one team scores more than twice.
• Player K has a roughly one-in-three chance of qualifying for the Semi-Finals, with no obvious pattern of how (s)he would do so emerging.

Time for some identities...

A = bb21
B = SS4
C = sonic2009
D = valenta
E = gnolife
F = andrew bell
G = Chapeltom
H = Ivo
I = newbie babs
J = Temple Meads
K = atomicdanny

Players were listed in alphabetical order, starting with numeric figures, based on the ends of their respective usernames.

 

[SS4]

No need to go out and buy them. Here you are. Should be plenty.

I hope you kept the receipt

And so England's tournament has come to an end in the most predictable fashion - penalties.

The Prediction League will continue though, and as such we have our Semi-Finals - see Post #3 for details of these - and our Semi-Finalists. But the 0-0 result that is officially recorded for our competition has thrown many a spanner in the works, as has the very low card count (producing an overall result of only nine of each), and therefore three of the five players who looked like fighting over those four spots - gnolife, Ivo and sonic2009 - have been eliminated.

Congratulations to the other two contenders at the top of the table, andrew bell and Temple Meads, on qualifying for the Semi-Finals. More remakrably however, special congratulations to SS4 and valenta, who both scored a massive result today to leap from the bottom half of the table into the Top Four - and in the former's case, achieving the seemingly impossible and jumping from LAST to FIRST. Both did well on bonuses after some low guesses, with both scoring a perfect 11 for goals and the two scoring six and three respectively on cards (with gnolife also scoring three for cards and Ivo and newbie babs scoring one each for goals), with SS4 also being the only player to have predicted a 0-0 resulting in an incredible daily score of 27 from a possible 32.

Commiserations to the other seven players; you may still enter predictions if you wish but they will not count. But for the remaining four players, your predictions must be in by 1845 on Wednesday and remember that reminders will not be offered and late entries will not be accepted!

The Semi-Final line-up is as follows:

SS4 [1] v [4] Temple Meads
andrew bell [2] v [3] valenta

Best of luck!

England and Italy, two defensive teams and I was the only one who put 0-0? Granted the game was too good for the 0-0 I was expecting but it's all good yet wasn't expecting to qualify let alone jump straight to the top and for once the goals matched the sum of my predictions

Seriously though, how the Hell did SS4 do that? He's been struggling for the whole competition and then suddenly gets lucky!

Luck? Skill! (OK, it was pretty much luck but I did put some thought into it.)

Predictions to come later (probably tomorrow). I need some time to think about it now. Predictions now, I need to wide this wave of fortune


From 8 points to 35 in the space on one game, I'm in shock! hock: hock: hock: (thanks to Ivo for providing me with a copy of yesterday's table)

=====================================================

SEMI-FINALS:

Wed 27/06 E311 Portugal 1 v 1 Spain (1945)
Thu 28/06 E312 Germany 3 v 0 Italy (1945)

Cards 7
Goals 5

 

[bb21]

Time for some identities...

A = bb21
...

Players were listed in alphabetical order, starting with numeric figures, based on the ends of their respective usernames.

I guess I am rather enigmatic in your eyes.

Finally I managed to figure out what on earth you were on about earlier.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I hope you kept the receipt

Why? Are these pans too much for your wooden spoon from the first round to handle?

 

[Ivo]

Why? Are these pans too much for your wooden spoon from the first round to handle?

But he didn't get that spoon in the end - Sonic did. So either send the pots and pans to Tewkesbury or put them in your cupboard

 

[SS4]

Just to make it clear my prediction scores were an addon to the post and haven't been edited. bb21 can check using the edit changelog or I can provide a screenshot

Alternatively I can copy and paste the same result into a new post if it helps you

 

[Ivo]

Just to make it clear my prediction scores were an addon to the post and haven't been edited. bb21 can check using the edit changelog or I can provide a screenshot

Alternatively I can copy and paste the same result into a new post if it helps you

I've been practically glued to this thread for the last 20 minutes (even allowing for sending you yesterday's table). I would have noticed if they changed.

To be honest it wouldn't matter even if you had tried to pull a fast one. As soon as predictions are made - well, valid predictions anyway - I record them to my TPL files on my laptop and whatever it says (unless what I've put is erroneous, which hasn't happened in a net 308 predictions before the Semi-Finals) is used as the definitive prediction. If I hadn't done this each round would have taken over an hour to write up.

Just a little reminder, keep in mind that players will have an additional thing to predict in the Final (to serve as a tie-breaker if necessary) - time of the first goal. It may be worth keeping a careful eye on the statistics and early progression of the Semi-Finals to try to get an idea for this extra value.

 

[bb21]

Just to make it clear my prediction scores were an addon to the post and haven't been edited. bb21 can check using the edit changelog or I can provide a screenshot

Alternatively I can copy and paste the same result into a new post if it helps you

Haha, so you weren't.

Would you do me the immense honour of forwarding that package to Tewkesbury? I believe you do not need to affix additional stamps if using Royal Mail.

I expect sonic2009 to receive them no more than one month after they are posted, even with Royal Mail.

 

[Ivo]

A little extra for the Semi-Finals and Final in relation to Bonuses...

For the last three matches of the tournament, the value of Bonuses will be reduced. Whoever should be closest will receive three points, with an additional three available for an exact result. No points will be awarded for "losing". These Bonuses will be distributed between each of the two separate ties in our Semi-Finals, so at least one player from each pair will receive a Bonus of some sort.

In the Final, only one point will be awarded for an exact prediction. This way, if one player should predict the score exactly, whilst the other is completely wrong but scores a perfect bonus result, the person who made the exact score prediction would still win (by ten points to eight).

 

[Temple Meads]

My Semi Final predictions:

SEMI-FINALS:

Wed 27/06 E311 Portugal 1 v 2 Spain (1945)
Thu 28/06 E312 Germany 2 v 0 Italy (1945)

Goals: 5
Cards: 7

 

[sonic2009]

I don't want those pots and pans thank you!

 

[valenta]

SEMI-FINALS:

Wed 27/06 E311 Portugal 1 - 2 Spain (1945)
Thu 28/06 E312 Germany 3 - 1 Italy (1945)

Goals: 7
Cards: 5

 

[Donny Dave]

8 cards so far, has that blown all the card predictions out of the window?

 

[Ivo]

With three of the four Semi-Finalists predicting a result of 1-2, only SS4 has picked up points from the first game after calling 1-1, giving him a clear advantage in his Semi-Final battle with Temple Meads:

        SS4 [1] 6 - 0 [4] Temple Meads
andrew bell [2] 0 - 0 [3] valenta

As far as cards go, the dirty Iberians have picked up more between them than any player predicted for the entire Semi-Finals! As a result, Match One is a draw, as both players predicted seven cards, while Match Two is advantage andrew bell after he predicted six to valenta's five.

        SS4 [1] 9 - 3 [4] Temple Meads
andrew bell [2] 3 - 0 [3] valenta

As things stand, the Final will be between SS4 and Andrew. Can the other players turn things around?

Unfortunately for Tim it appears not. He can only make up a maximum of four points from the next match...

 

[SS4]

Dammit, I was going to go 0-0 as well but thought they might have a moment of quality. After getting 27 points on the England game I shan't be counting my chickens

 

[Temple Meads]

Can the other players turn things around?

I think it's all over for me now

 

[Ivo]

I think it's all over for me now

Having checked all the available data, I am sorry to say that you appear to be correct. You can only gain a maximum of four points more than SS4 in the next match when he has a six-point lead.

Therefore...

Dammit, I was going to go 0-0 as well but thought they might have a moment of quality. After getting 27 points on the England game I shan't be counting my chickens

You can do your counting now.

 

[Temple Meads]

Having checked all the available data, I am sorry to say that you appear to be correct. You can only gain a maximum of four points more than SS4 in the next match when he has a six-point lead.

If this was The Name The Station Game there'd always be the chance of various penalties saving the day :P

Not here though, well done SS4 (sorry, I don't know your real name )!

 

[Ivo]

Not here though, well done SS4 (sorry, I don't know your real name )!

He's very secretive with regards to his name. I *think* I know it (having suggested otherwise not so long ago), but only because we attended the same Fares Workshop - one year ago, almost to the day.

 

[SS4]

If this was The Name The Station Game there'd always be the chance of various penalties saving the day :P

Not here though, well done SS4 (sorry, I don't know your real name )!

Thanks . My name is not public knowledge so no need to apologise

 

[Ivo]

After today's upset (or voodoo curse?) the Azzurri will be joining Spain in Kiev for the Final on Sunday.

Unfortunately for TPL players, everyone predicted a German victory, in which they scored at least twice! Thus, not one single point was won from today's fixture, so it's a case of as-you-were in relation to yesterday. Even the Goals situation hasn't changed, because today's 1-2 meant an overall total of three for the round - when all players suggested a minimum of five. As such, all players apart from valenta won the Goals bonus, which just happened to be true for Cards as well (with andrew bell being further away than SS4 and Temple Meads but winning due to his opponent being valenta). The primary concern however is that from a maximum possible combined score of 80 for prediction points, the remaining contestants scored just six...

Thus, here are the results for our Semi-Finals:

Semi-Final A

Match One:             SS4 [1]  6 - 0  [4] Temple Meads
Match Two:             SS4 [1]  0 - 0  [4] Temple Meads
Bonuses:               SS4 [1]  6 - 6  [4] Temple Meads
OVERALL:               [B]SS4 [1] 12 - 6  [4] Temple Meads[/B]

Semi-Final B

Match One:     andrew bell [2]  0 - 0  [3] valenta
Match Two:     andrew bell [2]  0 - 0  [3] valenta
Bonuses:       andrew bell [2]  6 - 0  [3] valenta
OVERALL:       [B]andrew bell [2]  6 - 0  [3] valenta[/B]

Therefore, we have to say goodbye to Temple Meads and valenta after making it to the Semi-Finals. Thank you for playing, and well done on getting this far - commiserations on falling at this stage.

As for SS4 and andrew bell, the next match will decide it all. One of you will walk away with the title - the other will walk away with nothing but a larger post count to show for your efforts. Please make your predictions for the Final when ready, ensuring you have done so by 1845 on Sunday, and please remember to show to provide a time for the first goal as a tie-breaker (if you believe there will be no goal, show this as N/A or similar).

It's a case of a veteran against the upstart newbie. Who will win? Good luck for the Final!

 

[andrew bell]

So I need to provide the score, time of first goal, amount of cards. Anything else?

 

[valenta]

Well that was a bit of a thrashing for me. However going on overall performance throughout the competition I believe that Andrew Bell was a more justified winner than me.

 

[Donny Dave]

So I need to provide the score, time of first goal, amount of cards. Anything else?

In the event of all predictions being tied (including the tie breaker), you need to PM the independant adjudicator (me) with how much beer you will send me to decide in your favour. The same goes for SS4. Quite simply, the highest bid wins! :P

 

[SS4]

Final

Spain 0 v 0 Italy
Cards: 6
First Goal: N/A

(I think that's first)
Best of luck andrew bell

Edit (with Ivo's blessing)

Goals: 0

 

[Ivo]

Still need a goals count

You can add it above; I've recorded the rest.

EDIT: Goals Count now recorded. I can confirm the other details are unchanged.

 

[valenta]

Hope all the players who have entered the Euro TPL have been tempted to join the TPL season beginning in August!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Still need a goals count

You can add it above; I've recorded the rest.

A difficult sum to do there!

 

[Ivo]

Well that was a bit of a thrashing for me. However going on overall performance throughout the competition I believe that Andrew Bell was a more justified winner than me.

This is Andrew's debut competition as well. I think he has done really well to get this far - he's never been outside the Top Four.

In the event of all predictions being tied (including the tie breaker), you need to PM the independant adjudicator (me) with how much beer you will send me to decide in your favour. The same goes for SS4. Quite simply, the highest bid wins! :P

I wondered why you posted in this thread so much

So I need to provide the score, time of first goal, amount of cards. Anything else?

Number of goals

A difficult sum to do there!

How do I know he won't pull a fast one again?