The Middle East conflict

[Bantamzen]

I think the populace are getting a bit too restive at the moment with gasoline being above $4/gal, so I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to reach an agreement in the next couple of days. Even if they do it will likely take a month or two for prices to fall to acceptable levels.

It always makes me laugh that prices at the consumer end fly up the moment something like this war starts, but then take their time to fall when resolutions are achieved. Or am I just being too cynical....???

 

[Dave61]

It always makes me laugh that prices at the consumer end fly up the moment something like this war starts, but then take their time to fall when resolutions are achieved. Or am I just being too cynical....???

As the saying goes : "Up like a rocket, down like a feather"

 

[edwin_m]

It's pretty easy to disrupt a supply chain, although there's some buffer before disruption is really felt due to the amount of oil (and other things) already in transit. Returning to normal will involve repairing all the facilities damaged by Iranian attacks, then restarting the supply chain and waiting a similar time before new supplies feed through to the end user.

Having said that, I'd say there's a good case here for another windfall tax on the oil companies who are making extra profit through no action of their own.

 

[Kevin51]

On thing to remember is that with dictators while they might be unpopular, they do enjoy as least some support in their country. The current regime in Iran of course came in by a revolution in 1979. Had it not been supported by a large section of the population then the revolution would not have succeeded.

Worth pointing out the previous regime was also a dictatorship brought into power by a joint MI6/CIA coupe.

 

[brad465]

We could soon be looking at a war of sorts between Israel and Turkey. If this happens, forget Russia invading NATO and the US not responding being what ends NATO, the end of NATO will be a Israel-Turkey war. Turkey could easily trigger Article 5, where the US will have to choose between the two, and Israel is more likely to be the winner in this choice. At that point both the US and Israel will have to be seen as complete pariahs, and any European government that is also forced to choose between the two is going to be even messier.

Under a previous US administration, Israel would definitely have been kept in check and not attacked Turkey. But they've manipulated Trump into attacking Iran, and if they see value in attacking Turkey, they don't have long to begin before Trump is either neutered in the mid terms and/or out of office.

'Next Iran'?: Turkey accelerates 60,000-tonne aircraft carrier amid Israel tensions

As Israel likens Turkey to Iran and deepens ties with Greece and Cyprus, Ankara bets on naval power to reassert itself

www.middleeasteye.net

While the world's attention is fixed on the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Turkish shipyards are busy constructing the country's first national aircraft carrier, the Mugem.

Turkey's Naval Forces Commander Admiral Ercument Tatlioglu said last week that the aircraft carrier is expected to be finished towards the end of next year, creating a buzz.

The statement suggests that the ship’s hull will be completed nearly a year ahead of the originally announced schedule.

The ship, the largest warship ever built in the country, is expected to have a displacement of 60,000 tonnes and measure 285 metres in length. It will surpass the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (261 metres, 42,500 tonnes), which has until now been the Mediterranean’s most powerful flagship. It is designed to host 60 aircraft, featuring a short take-off system.

Many in Ankara see the rapid progress of the project, which was only launched in August 2025 with the personal attendance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a sign that Turkey is determined to build up its arsenal to establish the necessary deterrence capabilities against state actors.

Tensions between Turkey and Israel have recently been running high, with Israeli leaders from both the government and the opposition increasingly likening Turkey to Iran in their rhetoric.

Naftali Bennett, a popular opposition leader who could likely become the next prime minister of Israel, famously told a conference in Washington in February that Turkey was "the next Iran".

Isolated in the Eastern Mediterranean​

Ankara has accelerated projects in air defence and unmanned platforms, as well as the fifth-generation Kaan fighter jet production line, following two rounds of war between Israel and Iran and the US.

Meysune Yasar, an academic specialising in Turkish naval power, said Israel's growing alliance with Greece and Cyprus is pushing Turkey to focus on its naval capabilities.

 

[najaB]

We could soon be looking at a war of sorts between Israel and Turkey. If this happens, forget Russia invading NATO and the US not responding being what ends NATO, the end of NATO will be a Israel-Turkey war.

Can we get the old writing team back? While I appreciate that the dialogue was getting a little stale and the storylines were repetitive I really don't like the new direction that they've taken things. I'm not so sure we'll get many more seasons of Western Civilisation.

 

[Annetts key]

We could soon be looking at a war of sorts between Israel and Turkey. If this happens, forget Russia invading NATO and the US not responding being what ends NATO, the end of NATO will be a Israel-Turkey war. Turkey could easily trigger Article 5, where the US will have to choose between the two, and Israel is more likely to be the winner in this choice. At that point both the US and Israel will have to be seen as complete pariahs, and any European government that is also forced to choose between the two is going to be even messier.

Under a previous US administration, Israel would definitely have been kept in check and not attacked Turkey. But they've manipulated Trump into attacking Iran, and if they see value in attacking Turkey, they don't have long to begin before Trump is either neutered in the mid terms and/or out of office.

'Next Iran'?: Turkey accelerates 60,000-tonne aircraft carrier amid Israel tensions

As Israel likens Turkey to Iran and deepens ties with Greece and Cyprus, Ankara bets on naval power to reassert itself

www.middleeasteye.net

Given how nasty the current Israeli government is, if it were my choice, I would back Turkey.

 

[The Ham]

Can we get the old writing team back? While I appreciate that the dialogue was getting a little stale and the storylines were repetitive I really don't like the new direction that they've taken things. I'm not so sure we'll get many more seasons of Western Civilisation.

Likewise the plot of "America is the bad place" feels a bit too far out there to be believable.

Having a US president who openly says that the UK should give up their ideas on the Falklands whist holding a president of another country with the implied goal of having access to more oil just feels like a mix between lazy plot lines but with some really out there ones mixed in to distract from from the otherwise lazy ones.

 

[GusB]

Could northern Cyprus be a target, perhaps?

There is already a sizeable community of Israeli settlers ex-pats in Cyprus, some of whom have moved there because it's safer than Israel. Having northern Cyprus would provide lots more room for expansion. Get rid of those pesky Muslims in the north and it solves a decades-old problem for Greece and Cyprus.

That is until the Israelis decide that they want the whole island for themselves and Greek Cypriots find themselves being bombed out of existence. Maybe I'm being a bit too cynical.

Given how nasty the current Israeli government is, if it were my choice, I would back Turkey.

I agree. I'm not sure that it'd be a walk in the park, either, and It would become very messy. While it's clear which side the US bread would be buttered on,
it'd also put our own government in a sticky situation.

 

[najaB]

While it's clear which side the US bread would be buttered on, it'd also put our own government in a sticky situation.

I'm not quite so sure. This excursion into Iran has caused a lot of Americans to start questioning their country's undying obedience to Israel's command.

 

[brad465]

I'm not quite so sure. This excursion into Iran has caused a lot of Americans to start questioning their country's undying obedience to Israel's command.

And Israel attacking Turkey, followed by an Article 5 triggering that the US openly betrays by siding with Israel, would be the nail in the coffin for AIPAC and all Israeli support in the US.

 

[brad465]

All it takes is for periodic strikes like this and the UAE's image as a safe haven for the wealthy elite evaporates:

UAE reports drone strike near Abu Dhabi nuclear power plant

The country is investigating the source of the strike, which it calls a "dangerous escalation".

www.bbc.co.uk

The United Arab Emirates said a drone strike had triggered a fire near its nuclear power station on Sunday, calling the incident a "dangerous escalation".
Officials are investigating the source of the strike. The country's defence ministry said three drones had entered the UAE from the "western border direction".
While two were intercepted, the third drone struck an electrical generator "outside the inner perimeter" of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Abu Dhabi, sparking a fire.
No injuries were reported and there was no impact on radiological safety levels, local authorities said.
The UAE's foreign ministry called the strike an "unacceptable act of aggression" and said it had the right to respond to any hostilities.
It added that "the targeting of peaceful nuclear energy facilities is a flagrant violation of international law, the UN charter, and the principles of humanitarian law".
The country's defence ministry meanwhile said it would "firmly confront any attempts to undermine the country's security".
Officials have not said from where the drone was launched. The UAE has previously accused Iran of being behind attacks on its energy and economic infrastructure since war broke out in the region in February.
The Abu Dhabi Media Office said the fire "broke out in an electric generator" and confirmed precautionary measures had been taken at the plant, which is operating as normal.
The UN's nuclear watchdog said it was monitoring the situation closely and that its director general Rafael Grossi expressed "grave concern" about the incident.
Grossi said "military activity that threatens nuclear safety is unacceptable", according to a statement shared by the International Atomic Energy Agency on X, and called for "maximum military restraint".

 

[Trackman]

All it takes is for periodic strikes like this and the UAE's image as a safe haven for the wealthy elite evaporates:

What type of defences do they have, any idea?
It says they were only three drones, with two of them being intercepted. I would have thought some sort of drone defence system could tackle 3 drones.

 

[Sorcerer]

All it takes is for periodic strikes like this and the UAE's image as a safe haven for the wealthy elite evaporates:

UAE reports drone strike near Abu Dhabi nuclear power plant

The country is investigating the source of the strike, which it calls a "dangerous escalation".

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder if Iran would've done this under any other US President, because if there is one thing you can predict with Trump, it's that he will not come to your aid even if you are supposed to be an American ally, therefore it's a much safer bet for Iran to strike any aligned nations in the region.

 

[brad465]

I wonder if Iran would've done this under any other US President, because if there is one thing you can predict with Trump, it's that he will not come to your aid even if you are supposed to be an American ally, therefore it's a much safer bet for Iran to strike any aligned nations in the region.

Which is an interesting reversal on his first term: back then he was very unpredictable, so many of the US's enemies were more cautious about their actions towards US interests. This time however he is very predictable, not just militarily, but in terms of the sort of things he writes on Truth Social and when he says them (i.e. manipulates the markets), while also being very afraid of a major market crash, to the point he TACOs.

The other big difference is, while US Presidents were always backing up Israel, Netanyahu's perpetual war was ongoing when Trump returned, and Trump is now so weak Netanyahu can manipulate him to do things that even previously loyal presidents said no to.

 

[Uncle Buck]

Which is an interesting reversal on his first term: back then he was very unpredictable, so many of the US's enemies were more cautious about their actions towards US interests. This time however he is very predictable, not just militarily, but in terms of the sort of things he writes on Truth Social and when he says them (i.e. manipulates the markets), while also being very afraid of a major market crash, to the point he TACOs.

Trump said of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that “it would never have happened on my watch” and I tended to think that was correct- he was so bombastic, and so unpredictable, that no other leader could be sure of what his reaction to any aggression would be, so they avoided antagonising him.

In his second term he has repeatedly, un-necessarily engineered situations where he is actually forced to make a decision, and in these situations he tends to “chicken out”. In doing so he has absolutely blown up his own and America’s credibility. It’s remarkable to see an all-powerful empire destroy its prestige in real time. It’s real “history in the making” and very much like Suez was for Britain.

The rule I would draw from this is: if you’re going to bluff, make sure to try and avoid situations where your bluff might actually be called!

 

[AlterEgo]

Trump said of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that “it would never have happened on my watch” and I tended to think that was correct- he was so bombastic, and so unpredictable, that no other leader could be sure of what his reaction to any aggression would be, so they avoided antagonising him.

In his second term he has repeatedly, un-necessarily engineered situations where he is actually forced to make a decision, and in these situations he tends to “chicken out”. In doing so he has absolutely blown up his own and America’s credibility. It’s remarkable to see an all-powerful empire destroy its prestige in real time. It’s real “history in the making” and very much like Suez was for Britain.

The rule I would draw from this is: if you’re going to bluff, make sure to try and avoid situations where your bluff might actually be called!

In his second term he has appeared totally captured by outside interests which has made him so ineffective. Agreed with your post. He's a very different beast now. A smaller and quieter one too.

 

[Cdd89]

All it takes is for periodic strikes like this and the UAE's image as a safe haven for the wealthy elite evaporates

I might be misreading this, but I hope you're not implying that it would be a positive thing if there were more of these strikes.

I don't agree with their style of government either, but anyone who's visited the GCC countries will know that despite this there are a lot of ordinary people who reside there and, in a sense, call it home. Stable places offering prosperity in the Middle East should be celebrated, we should hope to see more of them rather than widening instability.

In any case, the wealthy elite will never run out of safe haven countries in which to pay less tax, if that is the positive outcome you are hoping for.

 

[brad465]

Trump said of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that “it would never have happened on my watch” and I tended to think that was correct- he was so bombastic, and so unpredictable, that no other leader could be sure of what his reaction to any aggression would be, so they avoided antagonising him.

In his second term he has repeatedly, un-necessarily engineered situations where he is actually forced to make a decision, and in these situations he tends to “chicken out”. In doing so he has absolutely blown up his own and America’s credibility. It’s remarkable to see an all-powerful empire destroy its prestige in real time. It’s real “history in the making” and very much like Suez was for Britain.

The rule I would draw from this is: if you’re going to bluff, make sure to try and avoid situations where your bluff might actually be called!

There have definitely been a catalogue of comparisons to the Suez Crisis with this attack on Iran. It does say a lot that the three biggest oil crises in history (1954, 1973 and today) all have Israeli-US military conquests somewhere in their origin.

 

[jon0844]

How many times can Trump threaten nuclear annihilation and the back down before everyone realises he's a bluffing idiot?!

 

[Gloster]

This is becoming a classic example of Karl Marx’s comment that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Vietnam, the first US intervention in Asia, was the Great American Tragedy, while this is becoming ridiculous.

 

[jon0844]

This is becoming a classic example of Karl Marx’s comment that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Vietnam, the first US intervention in Asia, was the Great American Tragedy, while this is becoming ridiculous.

This time around you need to watch what happens to the stock market when Trump dithers around.

 

[ainsworth74]

In his second term he has appeared totally captured by outside interests which has made him so ineffective. Agreed with your post. He's a very different beast now. A smaller and quieter one too.

I reckon it's one of the more visible aspects of his mental decline from the dementia he almost certainly has. He's quite clearly much more mentally challenged than he was during his first term. Which isn't to say he was some sort of towering intellect then either but he seemed to have a much more solid grasp of what he wanted, how he might get it and the consequences.

Trump 1.0 would have been much less likely to get involved in Iran, for instance, because I reckon Trump 1.0 would have understood that that would be a situation that could easily get out of control and would be therefore more likely to ignore the people pushing it as the greatest idea since sliced bread. Trump 2.0 has lost that aspect of his mental faculties and seems to be much more vulnerable to that sort of persuasion.

He is also obviously feeling his own mortality far more than he did during his first term and must know, deep down inside, that his legacy is not secure despite what he says and what his acolytes tell him day after day and so is desperate for things that he can point to as being glorious successes.

It remains really illustrative to watch back press conferences from his first term, especially 2017/18 and compare them to now. The mental decline is stark. I reckon it's one of the reasons he's got so much meaner this time with the press. He doesn't have the mental capacity to engage with them in the way he used to and this is the protection he deploys to avoid his narcissistic bubble being burst. Seriously I recommend anyone go and watch some (his conference after the ramming incident in Charlotte is a good example, that's the "good people on both sides" incident), it's like a different person speaking.

How many times can Trump threaten nuclear annihilation and the back down before everyone realises he's a bluffing idiot?!

Dunno, ask Putin when it stopped working for him!

 

[Gloster]

This time around you need to watch what happens to the stock market when Trump dithers around.

Well, come on Wall Street don’t move slow
Why, man, this is War-a-go-go
There’s plenty good money to be made
By supplying the Army with the tools of the trade
Just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb
They drop it on the Viet Cong

That only needs the last couple of words changed, but it is from I-Feel-Like-I’m-Fixing-To-Die Rag, written by Country Joe McDonald in 1965. Country Joe died a few days after this current mess started and, if he didn’t have Parkinson’s, would probably have had something to say. Just a small tribute to a great man.

 

[AlterEgo]

Trump 1.0 would have been much less likely to get involved in Iran, for instance, because I reckon Trump 1.0 would have understood that that would be a situation that could easily get out of control and would be therefore more likely to ignore the people pushing it as the greatest idea since sliced bread. Trump 2.0 has lost that aspect of his mental faculties and seems to be much more vulnerable to that sort of persuasion.

Iran has been a conflict that has been brewing in the American establishment since 1979. All that has been required on America's part are for a few key contributing factors to align. There's a non-zero chance that a Harris administration would have been engulfed in some way in Iran, too.

My view is that Trump is captured by outside interests and doesn't have the faculties or strength to break free of them. I think he's far more docile and easy to manage now by the people close to him; read into that what you will.

 

[ainsworth74]

Iran has been a conflict that has been brewing in the American establishment since 1979. All that has been required on America's part are for a few key contributing factors to align. There's a non-zero chance that a Harris administration would have been engulfed in some way in Iran, too.

My view is that Trump is captured by outside interests and doesn't have the faculties or strength to break free of them. I think he's far more docile and easy to manage now by the people close to him; read into that what you will.

Certainly wouldn't disagree in general with that! There are sections of the American establishment (and indeed the electorate, especially the Republican electorate, to be quite honest) who have never gotten over the fall of the Shah, the Hostage Crisis and the failure of the rescue mission with the attendant embarrassment that followed. Of course they've now embarrassed themselves further but sadly many of them won't see it in that way.

 

[najaB]

There's a non-zero chance that a Harris administration would have been engulfed in some way in Iran, too.

There's no doubt that a putative Harris administration would have been engaged with Iran, but I'm pretty sure that they would have chosen a mostly diplomatic rather than military route. Everyone knew that Iran was preparing for this war for decades.

 

[edwin_m]

There's no doubt that a putative Harris administration would have been engaged with Iran, but I'm pretty sure that they would have chosen a mostly diplomatic rather than military route. Everyone knew that Iran was preparing for this war for decades.

Basically what Obama did.

 

[brad465]

What does it take for European countries to realise the Israeli government is not their friend? Maybe not much more given their condemnation of this behaviour:

https://www.ft.com/content/a3658698-2381-4e8c-94d2-f71dabb836ba?syn-25a6b1a6=1

A video showing the manhandling and humiliation of European activists by Israeli police has drawn widespread condemnation from western allies, forcing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to break ranks with one of his staunchest coalition allies. National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir released footage of some 400 foreign nationals forced to kneel with their heads on the ground while being taunted by the far-right politician as “terrorists”, surrounded by masked Israeli policemen with automatic weapons.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni slammed Ben-Gvir’s conduct and Israeli treatment of the activists as “unacceptable”, demanding the immediate release of the 29 Italians in the group and a formal apology. Politicians in France, Spain, Greece, the Netherlands, Turkey and South Korea also condemned the video and the treatment of the activists. The US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said that Ben-Gvir had “betrayed dignity” of his nation.

 

[najaB]

The estimated cost of the 'excursion' in Iran has risen to at least $29B including the loss of 42 combat aircraft:

A Congressional Research Service report says 42 U.S. fixed-wing, rotary-wing and uncrewed aircraft were reportedly lost or damaged during Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. military campaign against Iran. The report said the number may still be revised because of classification issues, continuing combat activity and attribution questions.

The United States, in coordination with Israel, began military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, under the Operation Epic Fury designation. The conflict has included air, maritime and missile combat engagements across the Middle East, with the pace of activity declining during an April ceasefire before some strikes resumed.

The Department of Defense, which is “using a secondary Department of War designation” under Executive Order 14347 dated September 5, 2025, has not released a comprehensive assessment of combat losses in the operation. During a May 12 hearing, Acting Pentagon Comptroller Jules W. Hurst III said the department’s cost estimate for military operations in Iran had risen to $29 billion.
“A lot of that increase comes from having a refined estimate on repair or replacement costs for equipment,” Hurst said.

Link: https://defence-industry.eu/congres...e-lost-or-damaged-during-operation-epic-fury/