The Middle East conflict

[STINT47]

Trump is now saying that a whole civilisation will die tonight. I wonder if he will drop a nuke on Iran?

Iran warns it will respond if Israeli attacks on Lebanon don't stop immediately

Israel and the US say Lebanon is not included in a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. PM Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel struck "the greatest blow" to Hezbollah in strikes today.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump has just posted on Truth Social, warning:

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again".

He goes on:

"I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?

"We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!"

• For context: Trump has given Iran a deadline of 20:00 EDT Tuesday (00:00 GMT / 01:00 BST on Wednesday) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

 

[najaB]

Trump is now saying that a whole civilisation will die tonight. I wonder if he will drop a nuke on Iran?

If that's the meaning behind his threat then he has totally misunderstood that Iranian psyche. They take great pride in the fact that they can trace their civilisation back more than 500 years BCE, and aren't going to be cowed by a country that hasn't yet celebrated their 250th anniversary. And, as a theocracy, they know that god is on their side and that if they are going to die, it's Allah's will and a something better awaits them on the other side*.

*Suddenly shocked by the realisation that if you replace 'Allah' with 'Yahweh' you're probably describing many in the current US administration!

 

[AlterEgo]

Trump is now saying that a whole civilisation will die tonight. I wonder if he will drop a nuke on Iran?

He isn't going to nuke Iran. Why anyone pays attention to anything he says especially in this conflict is beyond me. As usual it bears no relation to reality.

 

[najaB]

He isn't going to nuke Iran. Why anyone pays attention to anything he says especially in this conflict is beyond me. As usual it bears no relation to reality.

A rational person would not. Trump is displaying the signs of someone who has lost his grip on reality - at least at times. This is common with people suffering from mental decline.

I have zero confidence that he won't give the order. I do not expect that the order will be blindly followed, and expect pushback from the military chiefs.

But, that said, given the moves to remove so many experienced, career officers in the Pentagon, I'm not as confident as I was a month or two ago that the rational heads will prevail.

 

[AlterEgo]

Iran has rapidly sourced replacement road transport for its railway passengers owing to the threat of civilisation being terminated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt

Railway services cancelled in Mashhad after Israeli warning, Iranian media reportspublished at 12:04
12:04BREAKING​

Iran's Fars news agency says railway services have been cancelled in Mashhad, in the north-east of Iran, following a warning from the Israeli military that Iranians should avoid travelling by train as it "endangers your life".

The governor of Mashhad is quoted as saying trains will cease "until further notice" as a precaution.

The statement also says alternative road transport is available for passengers who cannot delay their journey.

 

[Cdd89]

And, as a theocracy, they know that god is on their side and that if they are going to die, it's Allah's will and a something better awaits them on the other side*.

Given that this is also the view of the evangenical Christians who surround Trump, especially given the comments about how it was an "Easter miracle" / God's will that the downed airman was saved, I suppose this could be viewed as a new religious war.

He isn't going to nuke Iran. Why anyone pays attention to anything he says especially in this conflict is beyond me. As usual it bears no relation to reality.

I'm travelling through Doha tomorrow. Hopefully I don't get nuked?
(I guess I'm putting my money where my mouth is in terms of Trump's threats being a load of nonsense).
I would also say Trump seems remarkably ignorant in not recognising how these wild threats actually make him sound incredibly weak.

 

[najaB]

I would also say Trump seems remarkably ignorant in not recognising how these wild threats actually make him sound incredibly weak.

I find that if you read his threats/rants in the voice of a pre-pubescent boy it matches up perfectly.

 

[Annetts key]

I find that if you read his threats/rants in the voice of a pre-pubescent boy it matches up perfectly.

Well, that's what dementia does to a brain, it brings uncontrolled emotions to the surface and degrades both logical thought and the ability to listen to advice or be reasoned with. So, yes, they become mentally more like a young child. But unlike a child, without any significant ability to learn new things or learn from his own mistakes. Instead he will blame others.

Really, Vance needs to grow a pair and discuss with the other cabinet members and with reliable GOP members in both houses of congress, then remove Trump from power using the 25th Amendment. But I highly doubt that he will do this any time soon.

 

[najaB]

Given that this is also the view of the evangenical Christians who surround Trump, especially given the comments about how it was an "Easter miracle" / God's will that the downed airman was saved, I suppose this could be viewed as a new religious war.

About that downed airman...

A number of online commenters have observed that there are a few things that don't quite add up about the whole affair. First off, DJT made it public that it was a Colonel. It is highly unusual for someone ranking as high as that to be a Weapons Systems Officer (WSO) in an active combat role. However, its not unusual for an airborne mission commander to ride backseat as part of a mission package for covert ops.

Secondly, while "we don't leave people behind" is the general ethos, the amount of resources dedicated to the operation don't really make sense. It appears that multiple C-130Js, several Blackhawks, light attack helicopters and numerous MQ-9/MQ-170 drones were involved. This represented upwards of two billion dollars worth of equipment (several hundred million of which was lost) and potentially hundreds of personnel put at risk.

Thirdly, it seems rather coincidental that the extraction point happened to be a disused airstrip that was conveniently relatively close to one of Iran's main nuclear sites.

And finally, the story of how the airman managed to travel such a long distance while, apparently, being gravely wounded, yet it seems is now in perfect health doesn't pass scrutiny.

Now, I'm not saying that this smacks of a special forces operation to try and extract highly-enriched uranium from an Iranian nuclear facility, but...

 

[Cdd89]

I've got a lot of time for conspiracy theories on that topic, especially since it's been openly acknowledged that the whole thing involved attempts at conspiracy and deception.

But just taking this point in isolation:

the amount of resources dedicated to the operation don't really make sense. It appears that multiple C-130Js, several Blackhawks, light attack helicopters and numerous MQ-9/MQ-170 drones were involved. This represented upwards of two billion dollars worth of equipment (several hundred million of which was lost) and potentially hundreds of personnel put at risk.

I actually think this makes sense. A captured hostage would be astonishingly bad optics for the US with a war that is already domestically unpopular. Iran clearly felt the value here given the efforts they also went to in order to capture them (the bounty was offered for capturing the hostage alive); Iran would use it to force concessions and end the war on their terms. The money was thus not really spent rescuing the hostage but rather to preserve the political ability to continue fighting the war - and with Trump's ego and reputation on the line, I'm not surprised he would have approved the operation.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I've got a lot of time for conspiracy theories on that topic, especially since it's been openly acknowledged that the whole thing involved attempts at conspiracy and deception.

But just taking this point in isolation:

I actually think this makes sense. A captured hostage would be astonishingly bad optics for the US with a war that is already domestically unpopular. Iran clearly felt the value here given the efforts they also went to in order to capture them (the bounty was offered for capturing the hostage alive); Iran would use it to force concessions and end the war on their terms. The money was thus not really spent rescuing the hostage but rather to preserve the political ability to continue fighting the war - and with Trump's ego and reputation on the line, I'm not surprised he would have approved the operation.

Agree on this point, also the US has a much more no man left behind attitude than us brits!

 

[najaB]

I've got a lot of time for conspiracy theories on that topic, especially since it's been openly acknowledged that the whole thing involved attempts at conspiracy and deception.

But just taking this point in isolation:

I actually think this makes sense. A captured hostage would be astonishingly bad optics for the US with a war that is already domestically unpopular. Iran clearly felt the value here given the efforts they also went to in order to capture them (the bounty was offered for capturing the hostage alive); Iran would use it to force concessions and end the war on their terms. The money was thus not really spent rescuing the hostage but rather to preserve the political ability to continue fighting the war - and with Trump's ego and reputation on the line, I'm not surprised he would have approved the operation.

I agree that they would go to great lengths, but reportedly it was over 150 aircraft in total!

Even the logistics of arranging all that in the time available seems a little suspicious.

 

[ainsworth74]

I agree that they would go to great lengths, but reportedly it was over 150 aircraft in total!

The Americans, not unreasonably, remain quite traumatised by the experiences of their captured soldiers/sailors/airmen in Korea and Vietnam as well as the Iranian Hostage Crisis in 1979/81. To a degree that I don't think is always appreciated here in the UK.

It is absolutely believable that they'd throw the kitchen sink at making sure one of theirs isn't captured by a hostile state even if that means using hundreds of aircraft.

The propaganda value of Iran capturing that airman alive would have been gargantuan and the likely pain of the friends, family, and colleagues would have been equally significant and played out day after day on traditional and social media.

Even the logistics of arranging all that in the time available seems a little suspicious.

Does it? The main area where US assets are operating right now is Iran. Where is most likely to therefore see a US aircraft lost or shot down in hostile territory? Iran. Where would you therefore pre-position you CSAR assets? Well, nearby to Iran...

Seriously, I like my tinfoil hattery but this isn't one of those times.

 

[najaB]

It is absolutely believable that they'd throw the kitchen sink at making sure one of theirs isn't captured by a hostile state even if that means using hundreds of aircraft.

True that they would do what needed to be done, but take the opposite view. Did it need over 150 aircraft and, more importantly, likely over 1,000 people to extract one person? Typically this kind of operation is done quick, fast, and light.

Each additional aircraft and crew that was sent in increases the likelihood that something will go wrong.

Does it? The main area where US assets are operating right now is Iran. Where is most likely to therefore see a US aircraft lost or shot down in hostile territory? Iran. Where would you therefore pre-position you CSAR assets? Well, nearby to Iran...

Yes, it does. As noted above, typical CSAR operations are fast and light. A couple of Blackhawks, a refuelling C-130, and a drone or two. With no intention to be on the ground for a second longer than required to pick up the airman - if you even land at all:

In the 1950s, the CIA and the U.S. Air Force and Navy developed the Fulton Surface-to-Air Recovery System (STARS), a system for the immediate extraction of people on the ground. In this system, 1 - 2 people slip into a full-body coverall connected by a tether to a self-inflating balloon. A transport aircraft approaches the tether, which is in the air, and captures it with a V-shaped fork. The connection to the balloon then cuts automatically, and the person is dragged along with the aircraft and can be hoisted aboard.Testing began based on a similar system that had been used successfully in World War 2. First dummies were used, later live pigs, as they have a similar nervous system to humans. When a pig was picked up from the ground, it began to spin in the air as it flew through the air at about 200 mph. It made it aboard unharmed but disoriented. When it regained consciousness, it attacked the crew.

By 1958, the STARS, or "skyhook," was ready. The system could be dropped from an aircraft and contained the equipment necessary to recover cargo or people. The forces acting on the individuals are roughly equivalent to that of a parachute jump, and the recovery takes up to 6 minutes.The first operational use of Skyhook was Project Coldfeet, an investigation of the Soviet NP-8 ice drift station during the Cold War. 2 agents parachuted in May 1962 and were extracted 3 days later along with Soviet equipment using the STARS system. The mission provided information on Soviet research activities in the Arctic, including evidence of research on systems for reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare in the Arctic.

Despite the high risk, only one fatal accident occurred during the 17 years of the mission. On April 26, 1982, SFC Strickland crashed due to a defect in the aircraft fork...

Video of the Fulton Skyhook recovery system.

 

[edwin_m]

There's probably a fair bit of disinformation going on here, but it does seem a large number of people and aircraft particularly as it's reported the airman had a locator beacon so they knew exactly where to look. Part of it may be one or more decoy missions to throw the Iranians off the scent.

 

[Annetts key]

True that they would do what needed to be done, but take the opposite view. Did it need over 150 aircraft and, more importantly, likely over 1,000 people to extract one person? Typically this kind of operation is done quick, fast, and light.

Each additional aircraft and crew that was sent in increases the likelihood that something will go wrong.

Yes, it does. As noted above, typical CSAR operations are fast and light. A couple of Blackhawks, a refuelling C-130, and a drone or two. With no intention to be on the ground for a second longer than required to pick up the airman - if you even land at all:

Video of the Fulton Skyhook recovery system.

None of the current U.S. CSAR aircraft (HC-130J Combat King II ) have the Fulton Skyhook equipment fitted, the aircraft are either relatively new and never had it, or for the possible small number of older airframes (if any) that are still in service, said equipment has been removed.

So either the fixed wing aircraft or helicopter has to land in order to recover personal on the ground. One of the capabilities of the HC-130J Combat King II is that they are capable of in flight refuelling of suitability equipped helicopters. Hence normally it's the helicopter(s) that land, not the HC-130J Combat King II aircraft.

Having said all that, there is something more to the story, as any would you land multiple HC-130J Combat King II aircraft (or maybe some were the earlier / older version) for one crew member?

 

[AlterEgo]

Nothing adds up, you're dealing with the US and Iranian militaries who both have reasons to deceive and lie about what happened. The BBC "news" is just reporting without critique what US Intelligence have told them. Who knows what happened?

 

[brad465]

TACO Tuesday right on cue:

Iran warns it will respond if Israeli attacks on Lebanon don't stop immediately

Israel and the US say Lebanon is not included in a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. PM Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel struck "the greatest blow" to Hezbollah in strikes today.

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump announces ceasefire with Iran if Strait of Hormuz reopened
​

Donald Trump says that after discussions with the leadership of Pakistan there will be a ceasefire between the US and Iran if Iran agrees to allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

"I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks," he says.

"This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!"

Trump continues, saying he will agree to the two week ceasefire "subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz".

 

[Strathclyder]

TACO Tuesday right on cue:

Iran warns it will respond if Israeli attacks on Lebanon don't stop immediately

Israel and the US say Lebanon is not included in a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. PM Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel struck "the greatest blow" to Hezbollah in strikes today.

www.bbc.co.uk

As predictible as the sun rising in the East.

 

[AlterEgo]

Amazing stuff, his immediate goal is for the strait to be open - just like it was five weeks ago before he went for regime change by way of air strike (which he did not get). Such a very thick administration, probably the least talented group of people ever to hold office in America and utterly cuckolded by Israel.

Of course he was never going to nuke Iran or do anything close to it. Iran's political ideology is truly nutty and demented, but at the pragmatic level they are a logical and educated people who would be more interesting to talk to about just about any subject than any of the giant dullards in the US administration. Iran hold more of the cards here. Sigh.

 

[Bayum]

We have already met and exceeded all Military (sic) objectives.

What a weird phrase to use to show you have ‘won’ the war whilst a country has resorted to using women and children as human shields and has the Western (was) allies bent over a barrel.

 

[Cdd89]

Of course he was never going to nuke Iran or do anything close to it. Iran's political ideology is truly nutty and demented, but at the pragmatic level they are a logical and educated people who would be more interesting to talk to about just about any subject than any of the giant dullards in the US administration.

He knows that, you know that, and Iran knows that - but does his base know that?

"We threatened hell and fury and it worked" is how this will be spun to the credulous.

And the BBC is doing Trump's bidding, as the BBC live headline "Iran and US agree to conditional ceasefire and 'safe passage' through Hormuz after Trump's threat" implies the causal link.

 

[Mogster]

None of the current U.S. CSAR aircraft (HC-130J Combat King II ) have the Fulton Skyhook equipment fitted, the aircraft are either relatively new and never had it, or for the possible small number of older airframes (if any) that are still in service, said equipment has been removed.

So either the fixed wing aircraft or helicopter has to land in order to recover personal on the ground. One of the capabilities of the HC-130J Combat King II is that they are capable of in flight refuelling of suitability equipped helicopters. Hence normally it's the helicopter(s) that land, not the HC-130J Combat King II aircraft.

Having said all that, there is something more to the story, as any would you land multiple HC-130J Combat King II aircraft (or maybe some were the earlier / older version) for one crew member?

It seems they landed a ground force to to secure the area and the HC-130s brought small M/AH-6 helicopters for air support. There appears to be at least one burned out M/AH-6 in the pics of the extraction site. With top air cover, CAS, tankers, AWACS, jamming etc you can believe the 100+ aircraft they are suggesting. There were also some distraction efforts.

I like a good conspiracy but can’t really see anything to build one around unfortunately. The pilot was rescued quickly by long range helicopter. The WSO was on the run and extraction proved to be much more difficult. The application of massive force is just the way the US does and has always done things. I’d imagine the boys from Hereford will believe they could have completed the operation with 4 of them and an old SUV…

 

[TravelDream]

Amazing stuff, his immediate goal is for the strait to be open - just like it was five weeks ago before he went for regime change by way of air strike (which he did not get). Such a very thick administration, probably the least talented group of people ever to hold office in America and utterly cuckolded by Israel.

It's really unbelievable to be honest.

Iran had a more hardline leadership than before the war.
Iran is in a much stronger position than before the war.
Iran controls, and is likely to profit hugely, from the Strait of Hormuz unlike before.

This is nothing but a total defeat for the US. It hurts terribly those who oppose Iran's awful regime, the Gulf countries, and, by extension, those who want easy free trade of oil and gas from the Gulf. It's brought the world closer to a recession than any time since Covid.
And whilst we in Britain complain about petrol prices, it hits some of the world's most disadvantaged in Asian developing countries the hardest.

Yet, somehow, this is still spun as a victory or the 'art of the deal'. It's insane.

 

[Harpo]

After threatening to wipe out Iranian civilisation, I find it nauseating to hear Trump talking of ‘peace’ in any context. I guess his usual Nobel prize bleat comes next?

 

[Bantamzen]

Amazing stuff, his immediate goal is for the strait to be open - just like it was five weeks ago before he went for regime change by way of air strike (which he did not get). Such a very thick administration, probably the least talented group of people ever to hold office in America and utterly cuckolded by Israel.

But what the administration has done is effectively mute the US media enough that the fact the Strait was business as usual prior to Trump's tantrum will pass largely unmentioned by the press core, meaning that the administration won't be asked the kind of questions it should and instead will laud over a magnificent victory that only Trump could achieve, blah, blah, blah. And so as with everything else like the tariffs, the Epstein Files, invading Greenland etc etc, they will fade from the media's view amid all the chaos created by the administration.

There's no doubt they are probably one of the worst ever US administrations, even more chaotic than Truss's lettuce cabinet. But they have an advantage at the moment in so much that things are so crazy over there, and they keep finding even crazier things to do, they are actually creating such a smoke screen that people are struggling to keep up with previous muck ups. So they could easily "off-ramp" here, pretend that they won, and then just create a new situation and more smoke to distract people once more. I pity the poor sods that will eventually have to pick up the pieces, it'll be like clearing up after a toddler's party where all the kids were having Skittles and Coca-Cola sugar rushes....

 

[DarloRich]

Of course he was never going to nuke Iran or do anything close to it. Iran's political ideology is truly nutty and demented, but at the pragmatic level they are a logical and educated people who would be more interesting to talk to about just about any subject than any of the giant dullards in the US administration. Iran hold more of the cards here. Sigh.

And the great orange deal maker appears to have given Iran control of everything. They have offered no concessions on nuclear processing, no concessions on nuclear weapons, control of the straight, no diminution of the republican guard control and no change of regime.

Genius.

 

[najaB]

And the great orange deal maker appears to have given Iran control of everything. They have offered no concessions on nuclear processing, no concessions on nuclear weapons, control of the straight, no diminution of the republican guard control and no change of regime.

Genius.

We'll see what happens in [checks notes] two weeks.

 

[DarloRich]

We'll see what happens in [checks notes] two weeks.

Of course - negotiations could change everything. The art of the deal and all that!

 

[BAFRA77]

Sorrywhatpardon?

Oh - it's a column in The Telegraph...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...oo-dangerous-to-accept-a-permanent-ceasefire/

Trump gambled on Iran and he won

Jake Wallis Simons

The fact remains, however, that in this titanic struggle of wills, America has seized the upper hand. The Iranian regime is on its knees, losing so much of its military capabilities and senior leadership that it is desperate for a tactical pause.

Yes, there has been disappointment in Washington and Jerusalem that the Iranian people have not risen up, but that was always a moonshot; after decades of savage repression, and the continual decapitation of promising leaders as they emerged, the movement is fragmented and cowed. As things stand, Trump has won this round.