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The Middle East conflict

najaB

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A "long range" ballistic missile at the highest point of it's flight travels very high up in the upper layers of the atmosphere or even beyond that into space, making it very hard to intercept during this part of it's flight.

And in the terminal part of the flight, as the speed reaches maximum, that's also a difficult part of the fight path for a interceptor missile to hit a ballistic missile.
The US has been working on both exo-atmospheric kill and terminal area defence, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they managed to score a kill on a single delivery vehicle mid-flight.

The problem that they have is that any attack by a peer nation (Russian or China) will involve dozens or hundreds of RVs which will be a mix of live warheads and decoys, even achieving a 95% kill rate results in a Very Bad Day™.
 
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Howardh

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Phew!!! Can anyone, anywhere, take his threats seriously?
 

najaB

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Phew!!! Can anyone, anywhere, take his threats seriously?
"Donald Trump" and "serious" don't belong in the same sentence, unless you're including other adjectives - eg. "Donald Trump is a serious embarrassement to the USA".
 

najaB

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What time did he release the statement - and what time do the stock markets open in the US?
There's still 44 minutes until they open at the time I post this. However, Asian markets were open and US market futures were down a few percent - and jumped a few percent after the Truth Social post.

Why do you ask that though, I'm sure you're not going to so impertinent as to suggest members of the administration are gaming the markets.
 

The exile

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Trump saying "We're not dealing with Churchill here" is so true, as Keir's position on involvement keeps changing.
As far as I know, Sir Keir has never actually changed his party allegiance. Churchill is not really the best example of constancy!
 

najaB

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Trump posted just before 7.30am local time, so a couple of hours before Wall St opens. He knew *exactly* what he was doing.
Purely coincidentally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,000 points on opening (after his Truth Social post). :|
 

Annetts key

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Looks like TACO Tuesday has come a day early...

From the BBC live web page:

Trump says talks held on 'complete and total resolution of hostilities' with Iran​

published at 11:12​

Donald Trump says there have been "productive conversations" about a "complete and total resolution" to the conflict in the Middle East.

He says he will "postpone any and all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure" for a five day period.

In a post on TruthSocial all in capital letters, reproduced here in full and verbatim, he says:

"I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

"BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

But...
From the same BBC live page:

One stray missile or tweet could change it all​

published at 12:25​


Faisal Islam
Economics editor


In the half hour after President Trump posted about the constructive conversations with Iran, there were remarkable changes in markets.

Broadly put, energy prices tumbled in expectation of a more normal supply of oil and gas. The Brent crude oil price fell 12% to below $100 (£75) a barrel.

Stock markets: Turned around on expectations of a pathway to end the war, with US markets predicted to open up 2-3%.

The markets for government debt, the bond markets, or for the UK the gilt markets, saw extraordinary falls in the effective interest rate.

These yields had spiked very high this morning in anticipation of a prolonged conflict with a permanent impact on supply, igniting a wave of inflation and an energy shock.

In the UK: The markets were pricing in a remarkable four rate rises this year at one point. Much of that reversed in anticipation equally remarkable half hour with the 10 year yield falling 0.4 percentage points to 4.78%.

To be clear, all these markets are still in worse shape versus where they were before the conflict.

Even if everything ended this week there are still scars to the supply of gas, for example, with the damage done to key facilities in Qatar.

Strait of Hormuz: There is a significant continuing risk factor now from Iran’s demonstrated ability to control the flow of commercial shipping through the key shipping channel using relatively low tech methods.

There is, however, an opportunity for an off ramp, and avoidance of a rather wild escalation to, for example, nuclear power plants and desalination facilities.

This could all turn around with one stray missile, or stray tweet, but things have already moved on considerably from where we were even at 11:00 GMT.
 

nlogax

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Purely coincidentally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,000 points on opening (after his Truth Social post). :|

Completely coincidental.

What financial journalists keep forgetting is that whatever statement he makes before a Wall St open is usually countered and proven false within hours. Both the Dow and Nasdaq have (I imagine) peaked for the day and heading south once more as the truth has surfaced. What a surprise.
 

BAFRA77

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Well - he said there's a 5 day window on this - which conveniently matches up with the closing of the markets for the weekend...
 

najaB

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The Iranians have said that claims of agreement at ongoing talks is "fake news".

Iran's parliament speaker denies talks took place with US officials

Over the last hour or so, several news outlets have reported that Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been negotiating with Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, citing sources.

Now, an X account attributed to Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posts that no negotiations with have taken place with the US.

It adds that "fake news" has been used to "manipulate" the oil markets, and that the Iranian people "demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors".
 

Annetts key

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The Iranians have said that claims of agreement at ongoing talks is "fake news".


Quite apart from Trump already being known as a prolific liar and being suspected of corruption, people with dementia often suffer from confusion and say stuff that is not true or remember something from the past and confuse it with the current...

Mind, given the current U.S. administration, I wouldn’t trust anything any of them said.
 

Cdd89

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Phew!!! Can anyone, anywhere, take his threats seriously?
This raises an interesting (well, to me) question as to whether threatening a war crime without carrying it out is itself a war crime - particularly if it gains concessions from the other side.

Genuinely no idea as to the correct answer or if there is any precedent here.
 

yorkie

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Quite apart from Trump already being known as a prolific liar and being suspected of corruption, people with dementia often suffer from confusion and say stuff that is not true or remember something from the past and confuse it with the current...

Mind, given the current U.S. administration, I wouldn’t trust anything any of them said.
Indeed, here is another example of a recent clear-cut undeniable demonstrable lie, which even the MAGA fanatics couldn't possibly deny is either a blatant lie, and/or a sign of severe dementia:
The aides of all four living former U.S. presidents denied President Donald Trump’s claim that one of them privately confided they wished they had done what he did in striking Iran and taking out its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
There is simply no other explanation other than he is a serial liar, and/or has severe dementia. I personally am convinced he is both a serial liar and has severe dementia.

He is no longer able to realise what he can get away with lying about, without being 'found out'.

While I'm not in any way qualified to diagnose someone as having dementia, sadly I have enough experience with family members having the condition to be able to recognise the signs.
 

Howardh

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Indeed, here is another example of a recent clear-cut undeniable demonstrable lie, which even the MAGA fanatics couldn't possibly deny is either a blatant lie, and/or a sign of severe dementia:

There is simply no other explanation other than he is a serial liar, and/or has severe dementia. I personally am convinced he is both a serial liar and has severe dementia.

He is no longer able to realise what he can get away with lying about, without being 'found out'.

While I'm not in any way qualified to diagnose someone as having dementia, sadly I have enough experience with family members having the condition to be able to recognise the signs.
Me too, but I had both my grandmother and mother with "severe" dementia/Alzhiemer's and they were way worse than Trump is now - towards the end my mother could barely talk and certainly couldn't communicate. What Trump is I've no idea, I'm like you no medical professional other than the years caring for mum; to me Trump has mental frailty in that he cannot release himself from excessive narcissism with total lack of empathy. There is a condition, NPD - Narcissistic Personality Disorder which I think covers it + losing his faculties due to old age.
 

The Ham

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Indeed, here is another example of a recent clear-cut undeniable demonstrable lie, which even the MAGA fanatics couldn't possibly deny is either a blatant lie, and/or a sign of severe dementia:

There is simply no other explanation other than he is a serial liar, and/or has severe dementia. I personally am convinced he is both a serial liar and has severe dementia.

He is no longer able to realise what he can get away with lying about, without being 'found out'.

While I'm not in any way qualified to diagnose someone as having dementia, sadly I have enough experience with family members having the condition to be able to recognise the signs.

The Guardian (with regards to one of the previous presidents had wished he'd attacked Iran) had said something like "it's not been possible to contact representatives of the non living presidents for their response" - I did wonder how far back such contact was attempted!

Someone else suggested that maybe it was the 45th President who he'd talked to!
 

Sorcerer

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I'd hazard a guess that the so-called talks Trump claims took place are a way to shift any responsibility for the consequences of his actions and not look like a fool. Then when strikes possibly continue he can claim they abandoned talks and continued hostile actions. We know how malignant narcissists work; they can't ever be at fault for anything.

On a side note, apparently Israel has been gunning for the US to start attacking Iran for decades but the previous Presidents weren't foolish enough to go along with it. Which if true just makes Trump look even more dangerous because if not even the Bush Administration with Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld went along with it then it must be a very bad idea.
 

jon0844

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On a side note, apparently Israel has been gunning for the US to start attacking Iran for decades but the previous Presidents weren't foolish enough to go along with it. Which if true just makes Trump look even more dangerous because if not even the Bush Administration with Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld went along with it then it must be a very bad idea.

Yes, since the 1990s Israel has been saying Iran was just days/minutes/seconds away from launching a nuke.

And the person saying this to America every time was the same person! All the other Presidents clearly answered with 'Okay, thanks for the heads-up, we'll look into it' while Trump must have responded with 'OMG, let's attack them now'.

It also hasn't been mentioned much in current coverage that Trump was boasting not so long about about the most successful missile strikes in history that wiped out the ability for Iran to build anything.
 

brad465

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Trump can't TACO so easily on this one because it's not all in his hands; the Iranian and Israeli regimes both have a stake in this as well. Iran thinks it has the US over a barrel and will demand all sorts of concessions, while Israel, and more specifically Netanyahu, needs constant war to boost his election chances later this year, which is his one route to staying out of jail. Right now, neither group will end this fighting on Trump's terms.
 

Trackman

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Yes, since the 1990s Israel has been saying Iran was just days/minutes/seconds away from launching a nuke.

And the person saying this to America every time was the same person! All the other Presidents clearly answered with 'Okay, thanks for the heads-up, we'll look into it' while Trump must have responded with 'OMG, let's attack them now'.

It also hasn't been mentioned much in current coverage that Trump was boasting not so long about about the most successful missile strikes in history that wiped out the ability for Iran to build anything.
Remember who supplied the nukes!
 

yorkie

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Donald Trump is asked:
You obliterated their nuclear sites last summer with your strikes. Then how can you argue it was an imminent threat now?
His answer is quoted below:
Oh, we hit them so hard.

We obliterated them. But obliterated them. But that doesn't mean with the right equipment you can't dig down and go get it. We don't want that and we
don't we won't have that. But we obliterated that site. They still haven't been able to get it. That was a complete success.

But if it wasn't, they would have had if we didn't hit them. If we didn't use the B2 bombers, it's who are which are unbelievable. We just ordered 22 more of them. Modern version by the way, super modern version. If we didn't hit them with the B2 bombers they would have had within two weeks of that attack. That's why we hit them because we knew they would have had a nuclear weapon. They would have used it on Israel and the entire Middle East.
I agree with the commentator that this makes no sense; it also completely ignores the question that was asked.
 

najaB

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I agree with the commentator that this makes no sense; it also completely ignores the question that was asked.
I'm just going to pick up on one small part of that...er...answer that gives an indication of his mental state.

He says (of the B-2 bomber): "We just ordered 22 more of them. Modern version by the way, super modern version."

They haven't and can't. The B-2 production line closed twenty-something years ago.

What they have ordered is the B-21 Raider which looks similar to the B-2, but is a completely different aircraft. And they've not ordered 22 of them, the initial plan is for at least 100 airframes.

But, if one were to assume that he was suffering the early stages of dementia, it would be easy to see how an aircraft that looks similar morphs into the same thing, and 100 B-21's becomes 22 B-21's.

I'd forgive someone who isn't "into" planes for the mix-up, but this is the commander-in-chief - he should know what he's talking about (or not talk).
 

Yew

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I'm just going to pick up on one small part of that...er...answer that gives an indication of his mental state.

He says (of the B-2 bomber): "We just ordered 22 more of them. Modern version by the way, super modern version."

They haven't and can't. The B-2 production line closed twenty-something years ago.

What they have ordered is the B-21 Raider which looks similar to the B-2, but is a completely different aircraft.
I think that description is fair enough, is don't think that describing the B-21 as a "super modern version" of the B2 is unreasonable for a non-specialist talking to non-specialist journalists
And they've not ordered 22 of them, the initial plan is for at least 100 airframes.
I've got no idea where 22 comes from! I know that sometimes defence procurement is split up into tranches, to make it fit more easily into the budget. Perhaps only 22 have been contracted at this point, with more to come in following years to reach the planned strength?
 

Cloud Strife

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Iran thinks it has the US over a barrel and will demand all sorts of concessions

I actually think they have the clear advantage here. They might not be able to defend themselves, but they only need very cheap / low cost weapons to close the Straits of Hormuz for a long, long time, and the Americans simply cannot risk sending any sort of warships there. Meanwhile, Trump is in deep trouble with fuel prices, and America's allies are nothing short of furious about the consequences of all of this. The funniest thing is that Russia is openly assisting Iran, so Trump has been made to look like an idiot on two fronts, not just one.

Trump's administration simply seems to have been completely incompetent in this, and it very much reminds me of the "intelligence" that told Putin that the Ukrainians would be waiting with flowers and open arms.
 

najaB

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I think that description is fair enough, is don't think that describing the B-21 as a "super modern version" of the B2 is unreasonable for a non-specialist talking to non-specialist journalists
As I said - if this was my uncle who caught something on the news trying to explain this to me a couple of days later - then it would be completely understandable that he was a bit mixed up.

But it's not. This is the Commander-in-Chief. The man with the nuclear launch codes. It's his job to understand the details. Or he'll end up doing things like saying that they've launched missiles at Iraq when they've actually launched them at Syria.
 

edwin_m

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I had both my grandmother and mother with "severe" dementia/Alzhiemer's and they were way worse than Trump is now - towards the end my mother could barely talk and certainly couldn't communicate. What Trump is I've no idea, I'm like you no medical professional other than the years caring for mum; to me Trump has mental frailty in that he cannot release himself from excessive narcissism with total lack of empathy. There is a condition, NPD - Narcissistic Personality Disorder which I think covers it + losing his faculties due to old age.
I also have a relative with steadily worsening dementia. The most dangerous phase is when they appear to be functioning reasonably normally but are masking a significant impairment, or others have either not recognised it or not acknowledged it. That is the most dangerous time - my relative had (and possibly caused) a fire - and could be where Trump is now. When they progress further it's obvious they are not capable of independent existence and are hopefully admitted to suitable care.
 

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