The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[Broucek]

The people who are obsessed with the small boats and immigrants don't care that numbers are going down. They want the numbers to be zero.

Those people will never vote Labour at the next GE. But there's a larger group that perceives that the system for illegals doesnt' work properly and that the sheer number of legals in the recent past (500,000 per annum) was unsustainable. Those are resonable concerns and both Labour and the Conservatives need to address them

 

[Andyh82]

I see the chancellor has announced “Great British Summer Savings”

Free bus travel for kids in August and a VAT reduction on “family attractions” and “children’s meals” which will supposedly be passed on to the customer.

It’s bringing back memories of the Covid restrictions when there will be loads of questions of what counts as an attraction or a kids meal.

 

[Tetchytyke]

But there's a larger group that perceives that the system for illegals doesnt' work properly and that the sheer number of legals in the recent past (500,000 per annum) was unsustainable.

"Perceives" being the operative word.

Does that perception match reality? Will that perception change if reality changes? Answers on a postcard.

You mention legal migration. The number of work visas being issued shows this very well. In the year ending March 2023 there were 300,000 work visas and 200,000 visas issued to the dependents of those workers. In the year ending March 2024- so immediately before the general election- this had risen to 300,000 visas issued to workers and 300,000 visas issued to the dependents of those workers.

In the year ending March 2026 this had dropped to about 175,000 and about 50,000 respectively.

Why do people come to the UK? Work

www.gov.uk

Look at the graph (the image below shows the figures I mention above):


But ask many people and Labour are soft on migration and we're being overrun.

Free bus travel for kids in August and a VAT reduction on “family attractions” and “children’s meals” which will supposedly be passed on to the customer.

I'm predicting now that precisely £0.00 of that VAT cut will be passed on to the consumer.

It might help a small subset of the catering hospitality industry out by letting them increase margin without increasing prices.

But mainly I expect that Merlin Entertainment- privately owned by a consortium of three foreign hedge funds- will be the main beneficiary.

 

[Yew]

I'm predicting now that precisely £0.00 of that VAT cut will be passed on to the consumer.

Yes, if it's to help with cost of living, not mandating those changes seems short-sighted.

I don't necessarily object to supporting struggling businesses, but it feels like the bulk of these attractions (big theme parks, cinemas) are as you say, owned by big foreign chains. Similarly, are there more effective way to spend this money, as at the moment this feels like it will favour families with a decent amount of disposable income. A middle class family will likely be able to spend (and therefore save) more than one that can barely afford such activities.

 

[Meole]

The decision whether to pass the reduction in VAT is for business discretion it is not compulsory.

 

[Broucek]

... a VAT reduction on “family attractions” and “children’s meals” which will supposedly be passed on to the customer

Dumb. Over-complicated and full of unintended consequences. And linked to what are, ultimately, luxuries

The real cost of living problem is around energy, groceries, transport costs. People who are really struggling don't get much beyond these items

 

[Bletchleyite]

Dumb. Over-complicated and full of unintended consequences. And linked to what are, ultimately, luxuries

The real cost of living problem is around energy, groceries, transport costs. People who are really struggling don't get much beyond these items

Public transport and groceries (non-luxury) are not subject to VAT to start with, so unless we start subsidising...

In summer you don't need the heating on so home energy costs are negligble. Unlike the US, aircon is not ubiquitous here, and certainly won't be present in homes inhabited by poorer people.

That I suppose leaves petrol, which they're addressing by not applying the planned increase.

 

[Kite159]

.

I see the chancellor has announced “Great British Summer Savings”

Free bus travel for kids in August and a VAT reduction on “family attractions” and “children’s meals” which will supposedly be passed on to the customer.

It’s bringing back memories of the Covid restrictions when there will be loads of questions of what counts as an attraction or a kids meal.

So how will the free bus travel for 'kids' work?
Will it be all bus operators or just selected bus operators who choose to take part in the scheme?

I can see some places passing on some of the VAT saving to visitors, but those places won't be visited by those who are just about coping with finances. Afterall a visit to the likes of Thorpe Park/Alton Towers is a luxury.

 

[The Ham]

Public transport and groceries (non-luxury) are not subject to VAT to start with, so unless we start subsidising...

In summer you don't need the heating on so home energy costs are negligble. Unlike the US, aircon is not ubiquitous here, and certainly won't be present in homes inhabited by poorer people.

That I suppose leaves petrol, which they're addressing by not applying the planned increase.

Indeed, however they are offering free bus travel for children, which will help those who go by bus and could make getting to town cheaper than driving due to not having to pay for parking.

 

[johntea]

There is also the small issue of capacity of some attractions - go to Alton Towers for example during this promotion period and everyone else will have the same idea so you've saved money but spent all your day queuing for rides!

 

[Tetchytyke]

The decision whether to pass the reduction in VAT is for business discretion it is not compulsory

I never said it was obligatory for companies to pass on the saving. They're perfectly at liberty to keep it for themselves.

We saw that with women's sanitary products. They got rid of VAT and the manufacturers just kept the money for themselves. The political reason for cutting VAT- to make the products more affordable- didn't translate into reality. We effectively gave a load of taxpayer cash to Tampax, and for what?

But this is why I think it is a dumb idea. They've effectively handed over a huge stack of taxpayer cash to the likes of Merlin Entertainment. Of course Merlin are going to keep it for themselves.

I can get it for small catering hospitality- pubs and restaurants could do with the extra revenue- but for theme parks? It's just plain stupid. A bit like Reeves, to be quite honest.

 

[Cdd89]

I'm sure companies will ostensibly "pass on the saving" for PR reasons, but then they'll claw it back in sneaky ways. After all, a VAT cut means the market will bear a higher price. The most logical way to capture the extra revenue without being accused of profiteering is just to scale back on other promotional offers they were planning.

Alternatively:

everyone else will have the same idea so you've saved money but spent all your day queuing for rides

...just allow the attractions to become overpopulated and profit from increased sales of queue skipping passes, which would go from optional to essential.

 

[Harpo]

Indeed, however they are offering free bus travel for children, which will help those who go by bus and could make getting to town cheaper than driving due to not having to pay for parking.

I wonder if the under-15s free bus rides will allow unaccompanied travel? I can see that being problematic.

 

[The Ham]

I wonder if the under-15s free bus rides will allow unaccompanied travel? I can see that being problematic.

That's where families could see the biggest saving.

By allowing unaccompanied secondary aged children to travel on buses for free (especially those already using buses for getting to school so already used to using buses) as rather than 2 there and back trips to drop a child off the child just uses the bus.

 

[jon0844]

Is Tony Blair seeking to join Reform with the latest comments undermining the Labour Government and potentially helping us get a far right party like Reform into power?

Cosy up to Trump? Scrap net zero?

What next, reopen the coal mines?

 

[JamieL]

Is Tony Blair seeking to join Reform with the latest comments undermining the Labour Government and potentially helping us get a far right party like Reform into power?

Blair is spot on with his assessment though and it is aimed at avoiding a Reform Government. Labour has completely lost its way, stalled the economy with its excessive taxation and is seemingly uncapable of finding a way back. Blair is going to be on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme at 0810 for those interested.

 

[The Ham]

The likely answer is somewhere between the two:

Maintain some oil and gas, but mindful that the reserves left in the North Sea are limited and so our future needs to look towards other industries as the volumes extracted reduce

Maintaining staff rights and trying to make it so that someone working for minimum wage can afford to live without needing benefits whilst not harming consumer confidence - but mindful that many large companies are making large profits, potentially because they are not paying a good wage to their staff.

Keeping Trump from being cross at the UK, whilst trying to prepare for what may happen if he results in the US no longer being such a useful ally.

Moving closer to Europe and getting some of the advantages we previously had, whilst not being part of the EU.

As such, where Blair is right, not having a good set of policies isn't going to help. However, going back to what was right in the late 90's isn't necessarily the right policies for the latter half of the 2020's.

 

[Falcon1200]

Blair is spot on with his assessment though

He is indeed. I voted Labour in 2024, will never, ever vote Reform, but would i vote Labour again if there was a General Election now? Almost certainly not, regardless of whether Starmer or Burnham was leader.

 

[Yew]

Blair is spot on with his assessment though and it is aimed at avoiding a Reform Government. Labour has completely lost its way, stalled the economy with its excessive taxation and is seemingly uncapable of finding a way back. Blair is going to be on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme at 0810 for those interested.

Exactly which taxation do you find excessive, and which public services would you cut to fund lowering it? As the Tories have shown, you can't just do a load of unfunded tax cuts and expect everything to be fine.


Similarly, the main cause of economic stagnation currently seems to be the fuel cost issues caused by the Iran war, which hardly seems like something we can pin on starmer.

Labour has lost its way, but that's entirely due to the rightward lurch that Blair led them into.

 

[JamieL]

Exactly which taxation do you find excessive, and which public services would you cut to fund lowering it?

It is the overall tax burden that is excessive and I am open to a wide variety of means of reducing it in cuts. Personally, I would happily see a restoration of the two-child cap, means testing of Winter Fuel Allowance, a 5 year freeze on most benefit payments, ending the triple lock, increasing State Pension age to 70 and a general reduction in what we expect the State to deliver. I also think that adding a few key charges into the mix on some public services - such as a fee for seeing your GP - would help moderate demand and thus cost.

 

[Peterthegreat]

It is the overall tax burden that is excessive and I am open to a wide variety of means of reducing it in cuts. Personally, I would happily see a restoration of the two-child cap, means testing of Winter Fuel Allowance, a 5 year freeze on most benefit payments, ending the triple lock, increasing State Pension age to 70 and a general reduction in what we expect the State to deliver. I also think that adding a few key charges into the mix on some public services - such as a fee for seeing your GP - would help moderate demand and thus cost.

And how many of those currently apply to you?

 

[Yew]

It is the overall tax burden that is excessive

What makes you think that?

I also think that adding a few key charges into the mix on some public services - such as a fee for seeing your GP - would help moderate demand and thus cost.

That might reduce the cost of funding GP surgeries, but would it actually save money on the whole, you could easily imagine increased numbers of complicated cases that could have been easily solved at a GP turning up in A&E.

 

[JamieL]

And how many of those currently apply to you?

Quite a few to be honest but that isn't the point. The issue is the expectation from so many in society that the state will pay resulting in an unsustainable demand on the taxpayer especially as less than 50% of households are net contributors (see source below). It is inevitably putting us on a trajectory to a Reform Government within the next 10 years.

The proportion of people living in households receiving more in benefits (cash benefits and benefits in kind), than they paid in taxes (direct and indirect) is 53.3%.

Effects of taxes and benefits on UK household income - Office for National Statistics

The redistribution effects on individuals and households of direct and indirect taxation and benefits received in cash or kind, analysed by household type.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[Harpo]

It is the overall tax burden that is excessive and I am open to a wide variety of means of reducing it in cuts. Personally, I would happily see a restoration of the two-child cap, means testing of Winter Fuel Allowance, a 5 year freeze on most benefit payments, ending the triple lock, increasing State Pension age to 70 and a general reduction in what we expect the State to deliver. I also think that adding a few key charges into the mix on some public services - such as a fee for seeing your GP - would help moderate demand and thus cost.

I take it you are under 70, employed and in good health with two children or less?

 

[JamieL]

I take it you are under 70, employed and in good health with two children or less?

That really isn't relevant at all to the thread. The issue is the need to cut public spending and the only viable way to do that is to reduce welfare, health and social spending because that is where the vast majority of UK spending goes. Unless or until we do that, the economy is going to continue to flatline that will simply fuel conditions for Reform. By so many of the population being so expectant on subsidy now, they are setting conditions for true misery in the years ahead. Add into the mix we are going have to find £billions extra for the defence budget in the near term, it becomes clear some really hard decisions need to be made now. Whether they are the cuts I have suggested or other services is neither here nor there - but the aim must be to grow the economy so the overall cuts can be less savage. And that growth will only come if we ease up on the crippling taxation.

 

[SuspectUsual]

That really isn't relevant at all to the thread. The issue is the need to cut public spending and the only viable way to do that is to reduce welfare, health and social spending because that is where the vast majority of UK spending goes. Unless or until we do that, the economy is going to continue to flatline that will simply fuel conditions for Reform. By so many of the population being so expectant on subsidy now, they are setting conditions for true misery in the years ahead. Add into the mix we are going have to find £billions extra for the defence budget in the near term, and some really hard decisions need to be made now. Whether they are the cuts I have suggested or other services is neither here nor there - but the aim must be to grow the economy so the overall cuts can be less savage. And that growth will only come if we ease up on the crippling taxation.

And these are - broadly speaking - the people Reform are targeting and who are effectively being encouraged to shoot themselves in both feet

 

[JamieL]

And these are - broadly speaking - the people Reform are targeting and who are effectively being encouraged to shoot themselves in both feet

I agree. I know several self-declared low-income Reform voters who are very confident that party will protect their healthcare given the 'free at point of delivery' mantra. They are unable to realise by implication that doesn't mean it will be free pre/post need nor whether the full range of NHS services will be provided. A Reform Government would be horrific but with Labour and the Conservatives incapacitated on the ability to fix the structural issues, I think we are heading that way.

 

[Harpo]

That really isn't relevant at all to the thread.

It’s hugely relevant as (thinking) turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

The issue is the need to cut public spending and the only viable way to do that is to reduce welfare, health and social spending

That’s the right wing solution for balancing the books. The left wing solution is to raise revenue for high service levels. Trouble is, our population wants left wing service levels and right wing taxation.

Unfortunately, my generation messed in the nest by continually providing free money generated from national assets or by debt-loading the nation, giving subsequent generations high service charges and huge interest bills.

 

[jfollows]

I agree that Blair is generally right, but he’s only saying what I and many people have been saying since 2024, and it just sounds like he’s trying to record his wise and clever thoughts for posterity. I don’t think it helps one little bit. If I thought this, then many in the Labour party think the same, and it doesn’t require a grandstanding warmongering bighead to change anything.

 

[Harpo]

If I thought this, then many in the Labour party think the same, and it doesn’t require a grandstanding warmongering bighead to change anything.

Blair certainly seems to be ‘outside the tent’.