The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[Western Lord]

I'm not really confident in any of the would be front runners.

Streeting would be a very likely candidate and I think I'd prefer to keep Starmer at that point.

Virgin Bet are offering 500/1 on Blair though

Streeting has a majority of just over 500 votes in his constituency. Highly likely to lose the seat at the next election.

 

[styles]

Streeting has a majority of just over 500 votes in his constituency. Highly likely to lose the seat at the next election.

Unless he's moved into a safe seat of course.

 

[eotw]

It will be interesting to see if the "good news" that is coming through cuts through to the polls.
Firstly the economy is looking to be on the up. I have seen multiple news reports predicting this - even from the Telegraph.
Secondly NHS waiting lists are going down
Thirdly net migration is going down.

Obviously partisan observers will already have made their mind up and probably say that it is all untrue/happening in spite of Starmer's government or hail Starmer and Reeves as miracle workers.
Personally I don't think it will save Labour at the local elections, hopefully it will cut through by next General Election and we won't get a Farage/Tory coalition - my biggest fear.

 

[Western Lord]

Unless he's moved into a safe seat of course.

I'm not sure that there is any such thing as a safe seat the way politics is these days. In any case, I'm old enough to remember Patrick Gordon Walker.

 

[JamesT]

I quickly want to address this point - and we can then get back to business.

The Epidemiologist brought into the Swedish Health Ministry who wrote and pushed the Swedish model has since come out and said he was wrong.



Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died

That's from 2020 when Covid was still ongoing. https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/34/4/737/7675929

While Sweden experienced excess mortality in 2020 [75 excess deaths per 100 000 population (95% prediction interval 29–122)], Denmark, Finland and Norway experienced excess mortality in 2022 [52 (14–90), 130 (83–177) and 88 (48–128), respectively]. Weekly death data reveal how mortality started to increase in mid-2021 in Denmark, Finland and Norway, and continued above the expected level through 2022.

Eventually Sweden ended up with a deaths per capita lower than the EU average.

I would suggest you read Tegnell's evidence to the Covid Inquiry, https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/18145343/INQ000283502.pdf . Yes, he regrets how many died, but there is no indication that he believes they should have done things differently.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It will be interesting to see if the "good news" that is coming through cuts through to the polls.
Firstly the economy is looking to be on the up. I have seen multiple news reports predicting this - even from the Telegraph.
Secondly NHS waiting lists are going down
Thirdly net migration is going down.

Obviously partisan observers will already have made their mind up and probably say that it is all untrue/happening in spite of Starmer's government or hail Starmer and Reeves as miracle workers.
Personally I don't think it will save Labour at the local elections, hopefully it will cut through by next General Election and we won't get a Farage/Tory coalition - my biggest fear.

Starmer has actually capitalised on the chaos over Mandelson and played a blinder in getting rid of McSweeney, Adam Bell and seemingly the cabinet secretary is on the way out now. The wannabees have run for cover so stability is being restored and the bond mkts like it. Also talk of another interest rate cut in March so my forecast is they will hold Denton albeit majority slashed. Local elections will be poor but thats banked and expected. Scotland isn't never going to change hands but Wales is the one that needs watching although even there I just dont see Reform cutting through but it will need a coalition and a sort of dry run for the likely 2029 general election.

 

[Statto]

Starmer has actually capitalised on the chaos over Mandelson and played a blinder in getting rid of McSweeney, Adam Bell and seemingly the cabinet secretary is on the way out now. The wannabees have run for cover so stability is being restored and the bond mkts like it. Also talk of another interest rate cut in March so my forecast is they will hold Denton albeit majority slashed. Local elections will be poor but thats banked and expected. Scotland isn't never going to change hands but Wales is the one that needs watching although even there I just dont see Reform cutting through but it will need a coalition and a sort of dry run for the likely 2029 general election.

Speaking of Scotland, remember Sarwar calling for Starmer to resign a couple of days ago, well he's in s lot of hot water of his own with the way he's delt with a Labour MSP over her links with a convicted sex offender, you couldn't make this up

Scottish Labour suspends MSP Pam Duncan Glancy

The MSP has had the party whip removed in the Scottish Parliament over her friendship with sex offender Sean Morton.

www.bbc.co.uk

MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy has been suspended from Labour's Scottish parliamentary party while it investigates her links with a convicted sex offender.
Duncan-Glancy stood down as her party's education spokesperson in December and said she would leave Holyrood in May after revelations about her friendship with former Moray councillor Sean Morton.
Earlier, Labour removed the whip in the House of Lords from new peer Matthew Doyle, Sir Keir Starmer's former director of communications, to allow an investigation into his links to Morton.
A Scottish Labour spokesperson said: "All complaints are assessed thoroughly in line with our rules and procedures."

• Ex-Labour comms chief suspended over links to sex offender
  
  • • Published
      1 day ago
• Labour MSP to quit Holyrood over links to sex offender
  
  • • Published
      21 December 2025

In December, Duncan-Glancy admitted a "serious error of personal judgement" after it emerged she maintained contact with Morton following his 2017 conviction which involved indecent images of children.
She had been selected as a Glasgow candidate for this May's Holyrood election, but said she would not now be seeking re-election.
The Daily Record has since reported, external that Duncan-Glancy continued her friendship with Morton, a former Labour councillor, after he was jailed for 16 months in January 2025 for further offences and that late last year he attended her birthday celebration.
The pair are reported to have known each other for more than 30 years, external, having met at high school.
Scottish Labour suspended Duncan-Glancy just hours after similar action was announced against Lord Doyle over his links to Morton.
Both Scottish Labour and the UK operation use the same independent complaints procedures, and both cases were being looked at.
It has emerged that Lord Doyle campaigned for Morton when he ran as an independent candidate in 2017, when he had been charged but not yet convicted.
In a statement he said Morton had repeatedly asserted his innocence at the time and only later changed his plea to guilty.
He added: "To have not ceased support ahead of a judicial conclusion was a clear error of judgement for which I apologise unreservedly."

'Shocking error of judgement'​

The Labour veteran who had previously worked with Tony Blair was appointed as the prime minister's director of communications but resigned last March, after nine months in the job.
His elevation to the House of Lords was announced only a few weeks ago.
SNP MSP Rona Mackay said Sarwar's judgement had been "absolutely appalling".
Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said: "It was a shocking error of judgment by Anas Sarwar that he failed to take decisive action months ago – and instead, pathetically, tried to claim that there was no need to act because Duncan-Glancy was standing down at May's election.
"It's humiliating for the Scottish Labour leader that he was only embarrassed into sacking her by the man he says is not up to the job of being prime minister."

The suspension of Pam Duncan-Glancy lances a boil, at least in part, for the embattled Scottish Labour leader.
Anas Sarwar had been facing repeated questions since late last year over why his former education spokesperson was allowed to retain the Labour whip.
Tomorrow, at Holyrood, he was bound to be asked by journalists firstly if he had made an error of judgement in calling for the prime minister to quit and secondly if it was right that Duncan-Glancy was allowed to be a Labour MSP?
Sarwar's answer that Duncan-Glancy was only around for a "matter of weeks" after announcing she wouldn't seek re-election didn't cut the mustard - with the SNP repeatedly pressing that point home.
Now it looks like internal party wheels have been turning which has also resulted in the suspension of Lord Doyle over his links with the same man.
It is a bit of a party mystery why these suspensions have taken so long to enact - and why Lord Doyle is facing this just five weeks after being made a peer despite concerns being raised.

 

[317 forever]

I'm not really confident in any of the would be front runners.

Streeting would be a very likely candidate and I think I'd prefer to keep Starmer at that point.

Virgin Bet are offering 500/1 on Blair though

The only difference between Wes Streeting and Keir Starmer is that Wes sometimes smiles.

 

[BAFRA77]

The only difference between Wes Streeting and Keir Starmer is that Wes sometimes smiles.

Another difference - Starmer wasn’t one of the worst NUS Presidents in history who is best remembered to saying he wanted to push a journalist in front of a train.

 

[Topological]

Wes Streeting is not keen to stop people calling him Sir. Sir Kier on the other hand...

 

[BAFRA77]

Today's Labour U-Turn is in - all of the postponed local elections this year are now back on

The Times is reporting that the government “has abandoned its attempt to delay elections to 30 councils across the country, after being warned by lawyers that the move would be illegal”.

Reform UK said it was going to challenge this decision via judicial review, and the first mainn court hearing in the case was due later this week.

The government has not commented on the Times story yet. I’ll post their response as soon as I get it.

Government abandons plans to cancel local elections in 30 council areas in May

 

[jfollows]

Today's Labour U-Turn is in - all of the postponed local elections this year are now back on




Government abandons plans to cancel local elections in 30 council areas in May

Good.
Reform has its uses after all.
They (Labour) want to play their games with our local democracy,for what little it’s worth, and then want to delay elections because they’re inconvenient.
Tough.
I don’t support the changes being proposed local to me, but I support even less the postponement of local elections. Although I don’t believe Cheshire East had original plans for 2026 elections anyway.

 

[Broucek]

Today's Labour U-Turn is in - all of the postponed local elections this year are now back on




Government abandons plans to cancel local elections in 30 council areas in May

Thank goodness - not a good look! Perhaps it wouldn't be the worst thing for Reform to show it's lack of capability in governing ahead of any Westminster elections?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Yet more shambolic politics.

The key point was a sensible one: there is no point spending millions of pounds on running elections for local councils which will be abolished within the next 18 months. There is absolutely no point in electing a set of dead ducks.

But the communication has been terrible and Labour have just left Reform to run away with their grand conspiracy theories.

 

[jfollows]

Yet more shambolic politics.

The key point was a sensible one: there is no point spending millions of pounds on running elections for local councils which will be abolished within the next 18 months. There is absolutely no point in electing a set of dead ducks.

But the communication has been terrible and Labour have just left Reform to run away with their grand conspiracy theories.

I don’t disagree with your point, but they didn’t attempt to sell it to people in any way. Just a Westminster decision depriving people of their rights or at least expectations.
The usual Westminster approach to local democracy.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Another difference - Starmer wasn’t one of the worst NUS Presidents in history who is best remembered to saying he wanted to push a journalist in front of a train.

I had the misfortune of having to work with Wes in his NUS days. He's the second-most obnoxious person I have ever had to work with. The most obnoxious person is Michelle Mone, which is obviously a very high bar.

I fully appreciate I was, and am, nothing more than a pleb-level lackey. But I have never ever in my professional career been spoken to as badly as by Streeting. Even Mone had the good grace to say please and thank you when she was yelling at me.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2026 ==

I don’t disagree with your point, but they didn’t attempt to sell it to people in any way. Just a Westminster decision depriving people of their rights or at least expectations.

I absolutely agree. It was a very technocratic decision- of course you don't spend millions on electing a set of dead ducks- but they spectacularly failed to explain any of this. They just imposed it. So instead of interim arrangements to allow full elections for the new authorities, suddenly its all about Labour elites denying people their right to vote in local elections because they're scared.

Talk about giving Reform an open goal.

I wouldn't mind, but most people don't give a stuff about local elections anyway. In the May 2025 elections, turnout was just 34%.

 

[jfollows]

According to the BBC at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70ne31d884o

Here is the full list of councils where elections were due to be postponed but will now take place:

Adur District Council

Basildon Borough Council

Blackburn with Darwen Council

Burnley Borough Council

Cannock Chase District Council

Cheltenham Borough Council

Chorley Borough Council

City of Lincoln Council

Crawley Borough Council

East Sussex County Council

Exeter City Council

Harlow District Council

Hastings Borough Council

Hyndburn Borough Council

Ipswich Borough Council

Norfolk County Council

Norwich City Council

Pendle Borough Council

Peterborough City Council

Preston City Council

Redditch Borough Council

Rugby Borough Council

Stevenage Borough Council

Suffolk County Council

Tamworth Borough Council

Thurrock Council

Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council

West Lancashire Borough Council

West Sussex County Council

Worthing Borough Council

 

[styles]

Such fun!

I may slash the odds on Kier stepping down this year if we're going to have the additional locals as well as Wales and Scotland nationals.

 

[martin butler]

Such fun!

I may slash the odds on Kier stepping down this year if we're going to have the additional locals as well as Wales and Scotland nationals.

Long term that would be the best outcome, Labour need to get someone who believes in the party, not someone who would seem more at home in the Conservative party,

Then they need to stop trying to pander to people who let's face it, are never going to vote for them anyway, instead concentrate on what people need, action on inequality, action on education, better outcomes, press regulation, and transparency over who actually is donating, and controlling our politics

 

[Purple Train]

Long term that would be the best outcome, Labour need to get someone who believes in the party, not someone who would seem more at home in the Conservative party,

Then they need to stop trying to pander to people who let's face it, are never going to vote for them anyway, instead concentrate on what people need, action on inequality, action on education, better outcomes, press regulation, and transparency over who actually is donating, and controlling our politics

Well this is the thing. Reform and the Greens have a very effective policy of alienating everybody who will never vote for them in order to attract all the people who might. Labour have a very innovative policy of alienating everybody who would vote for them in order to attract none of the people who never would.

Hopefully this will change with the appointment of new aides. However, I suspect my half-full glass does in fact contain vinegar.

 

[Topological]

Well this is the thing. Reform and the Greens have a very effective policy of alienating everybody who will never vote for them in order to attract all the people who might. Labour have a very innovative policy if alienating everybody who would vote for them in order to attract none of the people who never would.

Hopefully this will change with the appointment of new aides. However, I suspect my half-full glass does in fact contain vinegar.

That is a brilliant summary.

In the old days the Conservatives were happy being evil and Labour were happy to be Labour. At least in my lifetime, that was how it was. Then the Tories softened slightly post-Thatcher and Labour completely abandoned their position under Blair. Suddenly, Labour were elected, but they were not Labour.

Fast forward to the "end of boom and bust" proclaimed by Brown and the fiscal deficits that were run up in the 2005/06 period because of said "end of boom and bust" and... Suddenly, whole communities failed just at a time when the EU was expanding East.

Austerity was the Conservative response, right by Conservative principles. I do not think that Labour have ever found a response. Brexit was a reaction from the "left-behind" which neither party leadership wanted. Reform is just an extension. However, if the big two do not rediscover their purpose then I fear that we are genuinely going to see a more damaging reaction than Brexit.

My worry now is Labour has no vision. They play around at the edges but are still sticking to broadly Conservative ideas. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are not offering "the war on the workshy" that Thatcher offered. There is just nothing inspirational in the main parties.

All that is missing is the Ford Mondeo.

 

[brad465]

That is a brilliant summary.

In the old days the Conservatives were happy being evil and Labour were happy to be Labour. At least in my lifetime, that was how it was. Then the Tories softened slightly post-Thatcher and Labour completely abandoned their position under Blair. Suddenly, Labour were elected, but they were not Labour.

Fast forward to the "end of boom and bust" proclaimed by Brown and the fiscal deficits that were run up in the 2005/06 period because of said "end of boom and bust" and... Suddenly, whole communities failed just at a time when the EU was expanding East.

Austerity was the Conservative response, right by Conservative principles. I do not think that Labour have ever found a response. Brexit was a reaction from the "left-behind" which neither party leadership wanted. Reform is just an extension. However, if the big two do not rediscover their purpose then I fear that we are genuinely going to see a more damaging reaction than Brexit.

My worry now is Labour has no vision. They play around at the edges but are still sticking to broadly Conservative ideas. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are not offering "the war on the workshy" that Thatcher offered. There is just nothing inspirational in the main parties.

All that is missing is the Ford Mondeo.

This is where we need proportional representation: different parties can bring in different ideas and represent different groups, who in order to form a government have to collaborate. Division is much less effective and "left behind" voices get heard and represented much more without necessarily going to extreme parties as the main parties have to broaden their appeal. Given the need to compromise not everyone will get what they want, but areas with strong consensus will happen and those getting nothing will get more than they do now, both in terms of policy and in terms of feeling listened to.

 

[Bayum]

Am I surprised? I wish I could say I was. It’s like Kier Starmer wants to be out of government. Everything he does is an open goal.

 

[Bantamzen]

Long term that would be the best outcome, Labour need to get someone who believes in the party, not someone who would seem more at home in the Conservative party,

Then they need to stop trying to pander to people who let's face it, are never going to vote for them anyway, instead concentrate on what people need, action on inequality, action on education, better outcomes, press regulation, and transparency over who actually is donating, and controlling our politics

Not long term, Labour need a new leader now. Starmer is dead in the water, he's done that many u-turns now he ought to have reversing lights and audible warnings fitted to him. This isn't just a bloody nose for Labour, they've walked down the dark alleyway, got jumped and had got the you-know-what kicked out of them.

It absolutely pains me to say this, but this is a massive win for Farage and he will get a lot of milage out of it. He'll be able to sell himself as the "the saviour of democracy", and his supporters will slavishly lap this up, even though as others have pointed out some of these elections are almost pointless with the upcoming changes proposed. But that won't matter, it's the political equivalent of a 30 yard screamer into the top corner for Farage, even though Labour's defence and goalkeeper were looking the other way and made little attempt to block it. So I fully expect some more momentum for Reform in the upcoming elections, which will further embolden Farage to stir up more malcontent and propose even more "radical" ideas that he might want to enact should Reform win the next General Election.

It's going to be a lot tighter at the next GE if both main parties continue with their utterly useless leaderships, Reform might actually be in with a serious chance. So Labour have no choice, get moving today on getting Starmer to stand down, or start proceedings to remove him. There is no more time to waste.

 

[Magdalia]

Fast forward to the "end of boom and bust" proclaimed by Brown and the fiscal deficits that were run up in the 2005/06 period because of said "end of boom and bust"

Right up to the 2008 financial crash, government net borrowing was about 3% of GDP and government outstanding debt was about 40% of GDP. Compared to the fiscal deficits that were run in the aftermath of the financial crash, and in the years since Covid, the long term impact of government fiscal policy in 2005/06 is tiny.

Austerity was the Conservative response

Austerity was the response to what happened to government finances in response to the 2008 financial crash, not what had happened before.

 

[edwin_m]

This is where we need proportional representation: different parties can bring in different ideas and represent different groups, who in order to form a government have to collaborate. Division is much less effective and "left behind" voices get heard and represented much more without necessarily going to extreme parties as the main parties have to broaden their appeal. Given the need to compromise not everyone will get what they want, but areas with strong consensus will happen and those getting nothing will get more than they do now, both in terms of policy and in terms of feeling listened to.

I see it a bit differntly - the main parties can narrow their appeal. If they are too broad then a smaller party with more focused policies can take votes with a realistic chance of winning seats. Instead, the parties need to recognise that government will be a coalition and aim at a specific group. Probably Labour would split into two or more parties, or a new party would take a chunk of their voters. Either way the electorate would have a greater choice such as between soft and hard left, rather than left-wing voters currently having to accept what Labour chooses to offer or going to a fringe alternative that usually has little chance of winning their seat.

So Labour have no choice, get moving today on getting Starmer to stand down, or start proceedings to remove him. There is no more time to waste.

A new leader needs to bring in a clear vision and coherence - if things just continue as they are then the new leader is seen as "same as the old boss" and the party is probably worse off than if they stuck with Starmer. I don't know whether the problem is actually Starmer or the people around him, but on its own changing the leader won't help much. Just ask the Tories.

 

[Bantamzen]

A new leader needs to bring in a clear vision and coherence - if things just continue as they are then the new leader is seen as "same as the old boss" and the party is probably worse off than if they stuck with Starmer. I don't know whether the problem is actually Starmer or the people around him, but on its own changing the leader won't help much. Just ask the Tories.

The problem is that the longer Starmer stays as PM, the more harm it will do. Even if Labour were simply to appoint a deputy PM until such time that they could undertake due process to appoint a permanent replacement, with new policies and direction, that would at least demonstrate that they are serious about getting it right. Simply sitting on the problem and hoping it will somehow sort itself out will lose votes, and could lead to some seriously bad results in the local elections later this year. That would just make it harder still for a new incoming PM to turn things around.

 

[Railwaycat]

transparency over who actually is donating, and controlling our politics

Ever seen 'The light' (paper)? I'd like to know who's behind that rag...

 

[Yew]

I absolutely agree. It was a very technocratic decision- of course you don't spend millions on electing a set of dead ducks- but they spectacularly failed to explain any of this. They just imposed it. So instead of interim arrangements to allow full elections for the new authorities, suddenly its all about Labour elites denying people their right to vote in local elections because they're scared.

Indeed, it seemed a very sensible decision to save money. Yet somehow they've not effectively explained what and why, then backed down when Farrage went babbling on about his delusional conspiracy theories.

 

[edwin_m]

Indeed, it seemed a very sensible decision to save money. Yet somehow they've not effectively explained what and why, then backed down when Farrage went babbling on about his delusional conspiracy theories.

That sums up quite a few other Labour policies.