The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[JamesT]

You are joking! This is seriously taking the mickey now.

I would want to see some kind of relaxation on the minimum spend, for any increase.

Railcards going up.
Rail fares up (twice in a year in some areas).
Bus fares going up.

Railcards last rose in price to £30 in 2013. If they had kept pace with inflation they would now be over £40.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I would wait a day or so before coming to any firm conclusions, including answering this, simply because digesting everything properly will take time (the devil is in the detail).

Correct approach. I am doing the same. Digest the details.

 

[Mark J]

If it's any consolation, although I don't think it is much of one, regulated fares increasing by 4.6% means fares which were previously ~£11.50 will be over the normal limit.

Here in the Thames Valley, we have seen rail fares increased twice this year. In March, and again in September, giving an 8% increase.

We will see another increase early next year.

Plus bus fares, and now railcards going up.

For what? The services in this area are regularly late (even 2-3 minutes on a regular basis adds up over a year) and over crowded.

I'm really not happy to be asked to pay even more for services that really aren't worth the extra money.

 

[A S Leib]

The Independent says disabled railcards will stay at £30. I can't find any indication of price changes for 16-17 Savers or three-year railcards, but I'd be surprised if the latter didn't go up to £75-£80. The problem with the disabled railcard claim is that they're currently £20.

 

[station_road]

OBR says growth will be 1.8% in 2026 and inflation will be 2.3%. The country is just on a steep decline and getting poorer and poorer.

You have misunderstood those figures - the OBR growth figures are Real GDP (i.e. after taking forecast inflation into account), not Nominal GDP, so the country is forecast to get richer in real terms by 1.8% in 2026.

https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/

Real GDP forecast​

2.19 Our central forecast is for real GDP growth to accelerate from 1.1 per cent in 2024 to 2.0 per cent in 2025 and 1.8 per cent in 2026.

 

[Mark J]

If it's any consolation, although I don't think it is much of one, regulated fares increasing by 4.6% means fares which were previously ~£11.50 will be over the normal limit.

We have also seen a 'nerfing' of the Railcard this year. With the discount going down from 34% to 33.4%, which has automatically meant people are paying a bit more for fares.

 

[Merle Haggard]

The structuring of the changes to employers’ NI contributions - specifically decreasing the start point - hits employers with larger proportions of lower paid workers harder, doesn’t it? Like, er, retailers

My interpretation - and I might well be wrong - is that the lower start point not only brings low earners into N.I. taxation but also increases the charges for all above the minimum. For these there will now be an increase in charges represented by being charged over the amount earned between the old and new minima.

 

[takno]

OK, that budget has left me confused to the actual state of the countries finances. Yes there has been tax rises totalling £40billion, but the spending announcements have exceeded this by quite some margin.

How bad are the finances really, and with that amount of spending, where is the so called black hole?

The main thing is that the tax rises are generally what you'd expect to raise every year, where a lot of the spending announcements were capital spending. Not only is it legitimate to borrow for capital spending, but you also only spend it once.

Definitely worth waiting to digest the details, not least because all the capital spending will be re-announced at least 3 more times before the parliament is through.

Honestly it's mostly not a terrible budget in general. The raise in the bus cap, freezing of petrol duty, and above-inflation increase in rail fares is an absolute car crash of a transport policy though.

 

[SuspectUsual]

The proportion of salary previously outside the scope of employers’ NI but now brought into it is greatest for someone on minimum wage, and declines as salary increases.

The change in the rate of NI affects all salaries

But for - say - a food retailer where a large chunk of their shop floor and warehouse staff are on wages at or close to minimum wage, it’s a massive hit.

And of course if they were then to increase prices they’d be blamed for triggering price inflation

 

[Broucek]

All the hidden details will be in the supplementary papers included in Hansard, however, 1 thing of interest worth noting is that there are no changes to pensions (yet).

She's put IHT on pension pots which should never have been exempt in the first place...

 

[takno]

The proportion of salary previously outside the scope of employers’ NI but now brought into it is greatest for someone on minimum wage, and declines as salary increases.

The change in the rate of NI affects all salaries

But for - say - a food retailer where a large chunk of their shop floor and warehouse staff are on wages at or close to minimum wage, it’s a massive hit.

And of course if they were then to increase prices they’d be blamed for triggering price inflation

Most of the big supermarkets made fairly massive profits last year. The price rises underlying those didn't seem to take much of any account of costs at all. Given how many staff they've squeezed out over the last few years I'd say they will barely even notice.

 

[RT4038]

Most of the big supermarkets made fairly massive profits last year. The price rises underlying those didn't seem to take much of any account of costs at all. Given how many staff they've squeezed out over the last few years I'd say they will barely even notice.

Much of retail is not big supermarkets though.....

 

[Broucek]

Supermarket profits are only high in absolute terms. The margins are low. For example, Sainsbury made £701m Profit Before Tax on sales of £33 billion (C. 2%). Adding 2% to people costs would reduce profit by 10%.

Return on capital employed was 8.3%

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You have misunderstood those figures - the OBR growth figures are Real GDP (i.e. after taking forecast inflation into account), not Nominal GDP, so the country is forecast to get richer in real terms by 1.8% in 2026.

https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/

The forecasted growth rates are paltry not at a level that will really move the dial on sorting out public services anytime soon.

 

[Iskra]

Surely, making the country less attractive for employers is going to harm growth to the point of outweighing any positives here?

 

[Malaxa]

I’m pleased to see that so many things bled out to uselessness over the last 14 years can start to recover. NHS, schools, roads, social housing, shop crime policing and more have some scope to recover. It was also good to hear that excessive Covid profiteering will be clawed back to help too, hopefully with suitable corruption charges.

The Mailgraph Express will hate the budget but they were always going to just because it’s Labour. They’ll just carry on looking for new dirt on Labour.

This is very exciting stuff. A golden future awaits us. Paradise on earth. I wish I were younger.

 

[Richard Scott]

This is very exciting stuff. A golden future awaits us. Paradise on earth. I wish I were younger.

I'm willing to bet a golden future doesn't await us. Please feel free to tell me I'm wrong, with evidence, any time in the next 5 years.
Nothing exceptional happened yet, very disappointing.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I’m pleased to see that so many things bled out to uselessness over the last 14 years can start to recover. NHS, schools, roads, social housing, shop crime policing and more have some scope to recover. It was also good to hear that excessive Covid profiteering will be clawed back to help too, hopefully with suitable corruption charges.

Acknowledgement that these areas need fixing is a positive but we need to see what it specifically means in each area and what outcomes they expect.

I was appalled by Covid profiteering but i doubt it will amount to much. they have flagged it and like Mone most of them will have either spent it or squirrelled it away in offshore accounts. Personally I would rather they went after those avoid tax in the here and now

 

[simonw]

I'm willing to bet a golden future doesn't await us. Please feel free to tell me I'm wrong, with evidence, any time in the next 5 years.
Nothing exceptional happened yet, very disappointing.

I think the post you quoted was in jest.

 

[ABB125]

The extension of the 5p cut in fuel duty is an interesting decision. Seems to go against any notions of reducing car usage. Yet they have also cancelled several road improvement schemes - seems a bit like no-one knows what they want to do... I'd have increased fuel duty, but also increased investment in road upgrades.

The imposition of inheritance tax on farmers with land worth more than £1million is another interesting choice. If we take £10,000 per acre as an average value, that's 100 acres before you hit the threshold, which is hardly anything. Add in the farmhouse, maybe a few barns etc which add value, and suddenly you could be down to 50 acres or less. I can't see this ending well for smaller, family-owned farms...

 

[simonw]

The extension of the 5p cut in fuel duty is an interesting decision. Seems to go against any notions of reducing car usage. Yet they have also cancelled several road improvement schemes - seems a bit like no-one knows what they want to do... I'd have increased fuel duty, but also increased investment in road upgrades.

The imposition of inheritance tax on farmers with land worth more than £1million is another interesting choice. If we take £10,000 per acre as an average value, that's 100 acres before you hit the threshold, which is hardly anything. Add in the farmhouse, maybe a few barns etc which add value, and suddenly you could be down to 50 acres or less. I can't see this ending well for smaller, family-owned farms...

The problem with farms is the exemption lead to a lot of farms being bought to shelter gains from iht. Clarkson didn't buy a chunk of the Cotswolds because he always fancied owning pigs.

 

[Donny Dave]

She's put IHT on pension pots which should never have been exempt in the first place...

I'll qualify my original post. No changes to the amount of tax relief you get on contributions, or the amount you can withdraw tax free.

 

[ABB125]

The problem with farms is the exemption lead to a lot of farms being bought to shelter gains from iht. Clarkson didn't buy a chunk of the Cotswolds because he always fancied owning pigs.

Yes, that is a fair point. But how do you separate these from families who have farmed the same land for generations (for example), and don't have the ability to pay inheritance tax without selling some of their land (which will no doubt be bought up by either large landowners, or housing developers...)?

 

[Harpo]

This is very exciting stuff. A golden future awaits us. Paradise on earth. I wish I were younger.

A bronze future would be nice. It has to be better than 14 years of pretend land, telling everyone that they really can have the penny and the bun.

 

[simonw]

Yes, that is a fair point. But how do you separate these from families who have farmed the same land for generations (for example), and don't have the ability to pay inheritance tax without selling some of their land (which will no doubt be bought up by either large landowners, or housing developers...)?

That I don't know, but a reduction in the demand for farm land for tax avoidance should be a good thing.

 

[JonathanH]

The decision not to impose the field duty increase is a clear sign that even a party with a huge majority can't impose the policies on pollution and consumption needed to combat climate change where they involve a reduction in living standards. You do wonder what will have to happen for changes to be made.

 

[Richard Scott]

I think the post you quoted was in jest.

I'm not good at picking up on irony!

 

[Broucek]

I'll qualify my original post. No changes to the amount of tax relief you get on contributions, or the amount you can withdraw tax free.

A great relief. Politicians need to deliver a stable regime for pensions tax that lasts decades

 

[JonathanH]

Politicians need to deliver a stable regime for pensions tax that lasts decades

Whilst that is true, the treasury thinks that the subsidy it provides to pension saving is targeted at the wrong group of people, which is why they are always looking to nibble away at it.

 

[Shrop]

Just got back from holiday yesterday after the budget so I'm now playing catch up, and wondering about the transport side of it. I thought Labour were a bit more pro public transport than the Tories, and also desperate to raise £billions to fund their objectives, so why on earth would they not raise fuel taxes? A couple of years ago on holiday (in Europe) it was noticeable that their fuel prices were cheaper than ours but now it seems that UK fuel prices are getting lower and lower by comparison, and also in comparison with most other things, especially food etc. So why this huge favour to motorists by freezing fuel duty? What am I not understanding?