The future of the Heathrow Express

[Edvid]

Here's what Head for Points make of HX.

What is the future for Heathrow Express after 2028?

Heathrow Express only has track rights from London Paddington to Heathrow Junction until 2028. We take a look at the possible options for future Heathrow rail.

www.headforpoints.com

The future of Heathrow Express: what happens in 2028 when its track access expires?​

23 March 2026
by Rhys Jones

Yesterday I pulled on a pair of Heathrow Express socks I received in a goody bag at the company’s 25th anniversary celebrations in 2023, only to notice a hole was developing in the right-foot toebox.

‘Life imitates art,’ I thought. Recently The Times published (paywall) an article that said Heathrow Express revenues had ‘derailed’ since the arrival of the Elizabeth Line and that profits had halved since pre-covid.

I thought my sock might make an interesting hook upon which to hang a story about the company’s gradual decline, but after digging a little deeper I realised The Times story wasn’t the whole truth.

Like many people, I had assumed that the opening of the Elizabeth Line in May 2022, which finally enabled a direct stopping service from Heathrow through central London and out to Shenfield and Abbey Wood, would chip away at (well, let’s be honest, destroy) Heathrow Express’s business model.

At £26 for a walk-up ticket, Heathrow Express is the most expensive rail journey in the UK with a cost-per-mile of about £2. With cheaper walk-up fares on the Elizabeth Line (£14.60 one-way) surely Heathrow Express passenger numbers could only go in one direction?

Look into the accounts, however, and it’s clear that’s not the full story. Thanks to good marketing and an established name, Heathrow Express continues to attract millions of travellers despite its cost.

 

[Mgameing123]

Here's what Head for Points make of HX.

What is the future for Heathrow Express after 2028?

Heathrow Express only has track rights from London Paddington to Heathrow Junction until 2028. We take a look at the possible options for future Heathrow rail.

www.headforpoints.com

Point number 3 of alternatives will not happen. There is no room for additional Elizabeth Line services. Heathrow Express will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

 

[NCT]

Ultimately, I don't see HAL giving up on HEx's track access rights, as HEx seems to have settled into a new normal of long-term profitability. I don't see DfT/GBR fighting for those paths, for 2 reasons:

1) GBR transition papers have voiced commitment to maintaining fair access for Open Access (including freight) operators. They wouldn't want such a high profile counter test case.

2) The Airport National Policy Statement, including public transport access targets for an expanded Heathrow, is a DfT document. DfT wouldn't want to be seen to be undermining its own work by gunning to reduce capacity to Heathrow.

 

[cle]

Everyone on here seems adamant that nothing else will work. But then again, that is usually the tone on this forum - until something changes and is better. So I take it all with a little salt.

But this one is complex with so many dependencies - what about T5 D or the T3 rebuild. Or if T4 was closed - those EL services to T5 would be a logical increase (for T5 alone) - etc etc. Plus, OOC will come online soon, and will slow HEx down by 2-3 mins.

Also with the whole historical pathing set-up (behind the Slough / Oxford call - now changed) - it would requirte a recast and maybe not all 4 tph would be possible. So are we ok with losing a path?

Conversely where are those extra GWML services going? Oxford is still not wired - Newbury doesn't need it. Bristol 'super fasts' back perhaps - or additional towards Exeter? The Chelt/Gloucs split? It's unclear.

Let alone the Elizabeth line capacity. And freight debate. Single line to T4. Lots to resolve. It does work well today.

 

[NCT]

But this one is complex with so many dependencies - what about T5 D or the T3 rebuild. Or if T4 was closed - those EL services to T5 would be a logical increase (for T5 alone) - etc etc.

Depends on what HAL is planning as part of the expansion scheme. I suspect HAL towers already have the answers.

Plus, OOC will come online soon, and will slow HEx down by 2-3 mins.

HEx is primed to mop up the North West - Heathrow punters. Existing Crossrail paths would be overwhelmed, and there's no Relief Line capacity for more paths (squeezing in 2 paths might be doable with fair wind, but that wouldn't be an adequate replacement for 4tph HEx).

 

[TheGrew]

Thanks for posting that, it's a really interesting read.
I think, unless you can somehow get the Elizabeth line trains onto the fast lines without conflicting movements at the Paddington throat, you couldn't realistically replace HEX operationally.
To solve that operational problem, I wonder if it would be 'easier' to build a dedicated tunnel under the GWML linking the Elizabeth Line's Western Portal and the Heathrow tunnel, but that would be serious £££ for arguably limited benefit.

 

[NCT]

Thanks for posting that, it's a really interesting read.
I think, unless you can somehow get the Elizabeth line trains onto the fast lines without conflicting movements at the Paddington throat, you couldn't realistically replace HEX operationally.
To solve that operational problem, I wonder if it would be 'easier' to build a dedicated tunnel under the GWML linking the Elizabeth Line's Western Portal and the Heathrow tunnel, but that would be serious £££ for arguably limited benefit.

All done by 2028!

 

[Topological]

Why would Heathrow want more Elizabeth Line trains going into the complex?

There are plenty of options for GWR destinations. However, they would need new stock. There are also some who say that the paths do not exist between Airport Junction and Reading so the HEX is not actually costing paths further out. There will be plenty of those posts in this thread.

When the 3rd Runway and HS2 launch there will be plenty willing to pay for HEX.

 

[sh24]

I just took the 14:10 HEX from Paddington. Full and standing in the first 1.5 standard carriages and 75% loaded in the next 2. Front unit was much quieter but still a very decent load at a relatively quiet time on a Monday. A few Heathrow and airline staff but plenty of fare payers.

It isn’t going anywhere.

 

[birchesgreen]

Yes its a good service, a couple of years ago i took the HEX to Heathrow Central and came back on the Elizabeth Line. If you don't mind the cost (though i had a cheap special offer ticket) then a much more comfortable (and faster) journey.

 

[quantinghome]

2025 accounts will be available in June based on past experience.

 

[sh24]

Yes its a good service, a couple of years ago i took the HEX to Heathrow Central and came back on the Elizabeth Line. If you don't mind the cost (though i had a cheap special offer ticket) then a much more comfortable (and faster) journey.

£6.65 if booked 30 days out with a Railcard. Cheaper than Elizabeth line even taking into account the tube fare from Lambeth North.

 

[FGWHST43009]

I think the Western line would make HEx more worthwhile as it can run through to Reading. Could a Didcot or a Newbury service go via Heathrow?

Also, is there a nickname for the Western Approach? How about HeathWestRail?

 

[JN114]

Also, is there a nickname for the Western Approach?

WRAtH

Western Rail Access to Heathrow

 

[Bald Rick]

WRAtH

Western Rail Access to Heathrow

And of course if the current London Mayor insists it is built as a condition of any Heathrow expansion, it can only be named the WRAtH of Khan.

(Where did I leave my coat?)

 

[Mgameing123]

I think the Western line would make HEx more worthwhile as it can run through to Reading. Could a Didcot or a Newbury service go via Heathrow?

Also, is there a nickname for the Western Approach? How about HeathWestRail?

To be fair wouldn’t a better approach be to make a brand new HS3 from Old Oak Common to Reading via Heathrow?

It would be a new high speed line that could take off the existing high speed services off the GWML so that freight and GWR relief line services can go on the main line. That way there is more space for Elizabeth Line trains to Reading and Heathrow.

Might be costly but it solves a lot of issues in one go.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Mar 2026 ==

I think the Western line would make HEx more worthwhile as it can run through to Reading. Could a Didcot or a Newbury service go via Heathrow?

Also, is there a nickname for the Western Approach? How about HeathWestRail?

Yeah they could. Not sure why the Newbury or Didcot service would need to go via Heathrow. I’d rather send one of the Bristol or Cardiff services via Heathrow.

 

[dk1]

I just took the 14:10 HEX from Paddington. Full and standing in the first 1.5 standard carriages and 75% loaded in the next 2. Front unit was much quieter but still a very decent load at a relatively quiet time on a Monday. A few Heathrow and airline staff but plenty of fare payers.

It isn’t going anywhere.

Thats good to hear.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Yeah they could. Not sure why the Newbury or Didcot service would need to go via Heathrow. I’d rather send one of the Bristol or Cardiff services via Heathrow.

Wouldn't the time penalty on that just push most of the through passengers onto the other service instead?

I would, as an alternative, wonder about a Paddington - Heathrow - Reading dedicated service, calling also at Old Oak Common ( once open ), Hayes and Harlington and Slough in both directions? That should cover all connectional possibilities without putting any time penalty on the longer distance travellers?

 

[Mgameing123]

Wouldn't the time penalty on that just push most of the through passengers onto the other service instead?

I would, as an alternative, wonder about a Paddington - Heathrow - Reading dedicated service, calling also at Old Oak Common ( once open ), Hayes and Harlington and Slough in both directions? That should cover all connectional possibilities without putting any time penalty on the longer distance travellers?

Not necessarily. If there are good advance deals on that service then people will use it.

 

[zwk500]

Not necessarily. If there are good advance deals on that service then people will use it.

I do not see any world in which prices would be cheaper for Bristol/Cardiff to London via Heathrow than via the traditional GWML.

 

[cle]

I would think they were one of the following three:

Longer distance service / lay over at T5 to find HEx paths / run on to Paddington as HEx
Dedicated Heathrow terminator - likely to Reading/Didcot/Oxford with the Slough etc calls - more for local TV users
Crossrail diversion route - on to Reading via the slow lines and usual calls. Extensions of T5 terminators above and beyond the current Reading service.

 

[Mgameing123]

I do not see any world in which prices would be cheaper for Bristol/Cardiff to London via Heathrow than via the traditional GWML.

Well it’s all about supply and demand. If demand is too low then prices will be cheaper. But obviously that won’t be the case if the via Heathrow service is found to be popular.