cactustwirly
Established Member
T5 has the consistent all day demand
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The future of the Heathrow Express
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Backroom_boy
Member
That must be a ten year or so plan though?
Topological
Established Member
What is it about the current T5 provision that is not working?
I get that people might want more Elizabeth Line and less HEX because of the cost, but that is no reason to downgrade a busy T4.
Heathrow themselves probably like the fact that T5 has a regular HEX and less regular Elizabeth Line.
They may close the airport terminal, but will they close the entrance to the airport at T4?
I guess if the third runway goes there then they would, but having an access point on the south side of the airfield might still be useful, even if there's not a terminal there.
I guess if the third runway goes there then they would, but having an access point on the south side of the airfield might still be useful, even if there's not a terminal there.
The redevelopment sees a new southside highway access to the central terminal area from the southern perimeter road just west of T4. But I’m not sure that’s relevant to provision of rail services there.
T4 (4tph) is definitely less of a destination than T5 (6tph).
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For rail purposes, without a Southern link though, it will still need to be a suitable location to turnback trains.
That or the mothballed platforms at T5 get put into use, which will no doubt happen with a 3rd runaway.
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They very much do, much to TfL's annoyance.
As an aside, during disruption in/around the airport, many of the contingency plans lead to Elizabeth line services not serving T5.
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Anyway, the only way I can see the Elizabeth line could running extra services to T5 is fast from Paddington (Low Level) to Heathrow via the Main Lines, but that requires crossing at Acton West / Ladbroke Grove, every day, 4 times an hour.
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Possibly, or….
Possibly - but not in Heathrow’s current plans.
Indeed, there was a timetable dispute about it a couple of years back.
That seems rather short-sighted.
There’s certainly no evidence or plan of T4 being knocked down but it sees a quarter of the volume that T5 does for the exits/entries and that doesn’t include the inter terminal (I think?).
There’s probably an argument it will be next to go after T3 but that requires T1 to be knocked down (next year), T2 extension/T2C (and remotes at D) built opened and running, then T3 flights moved and T3 knocked down. Likely in a number of years.
Whilst T4 is a bloody awkward terminal it does have a lot of capacity that could quite dramatically increase in utilisation with the future operator movement plan.
There’s probably an argument it will be next to go after T3 but that requires T1 to be knocked down (next year), T2 extension/T2C (and remotes at D) built opened and running, then T3 flights moved and T3 knocked down. Likely in a number of years.
Whilst T4 is a bloody awkward terminal it does have a lot of capacity that could quite dramatically increase in utilisation with the future operator movement plan.
Snow1964
Established Member
Are you sure, even with T5XW (western terminal T5 extension) and The T5XN (the northern satellite terminal) and full T2 with pier T2C, and what is known as Pier 6 and T2D on site of current terminal 3. The masterplan still shows T4.
It also shows the north side parking replaced by series of multi storey car parks just off the Southern perimeter road, just east of Stanwell Moor junction.
So if terminal 4 is closing, doesn't appear to be until at least 2050s, maybe lot later.
Topological
Established Member
The closure of T4 does appear in a lot of the rationales for the new terminals. The suggestion is that T4 is operationally inconvenient being south of all of the runways. With Runway 3 being built to the north, that inconvenience only becomes greater.
I am sure I have seen documents showing T4 closed, but it is correct that the submission from this summer does show T4
Link: Heathrow Official Proposal Summary July 2025
That depends how old you are!
It will be a while, but it will close. It’s a pain operationally.
Snow1964
Established Member
It's a pain whilst they only have two runways,
but won't be so difficult to cross it if some flights are using the new northern runway allowing southern runway to be used less.
The whole prinicple of the third runway is to provide more capacity, not to use the existing runways less!
Early 50’s so hopefully another 30 years.
Not so fond memories of BA flights in the early 00’s holding sort to “cross the active runway”…. I won’t be sorry to see it go! But somehow I can see the attraction of retaining an existing terminal will win for HAL
The Heathrow expansion proposal doc shared above and subsequent comments from the airport imply their view is that the connection to Waterloo is their priority, in terms of funding rail links to an expanded Heathrow, followed by the Western Link, followed lastly by the Woking southern link.
I might be over-speculating based on scraps, but that's how I read it.
Longer summary posted on my Reading-focussed website:
readingonthames.com
I might be over-speculating based on scraps, but that's how I read it.
Longer summary posted on my Reading-focussed website:
Reading to Heathrow Rail – will we finally get there?
Reading’s economic fortunes are underpinned by its proximity to Heathrow. With a new runway set for take-off, there’s renewed interest in future rail connections to the airport. This is…
readingonthames.com
Snow1964
Established Member
According to latest quarterly ORR figures, Heathrow Express grew 18% compared to same quarter 2024 (see figure 1.1)
Has it now grown in popularity again after generally shrinking in most quarters over last 5 years
Has it now grown in popularity again after generally shrinking in most quarters over last 5 years
Anecdotally, no. I'm not saying it's wrong, but I wonder if there's been some data reporting changes? You'd think it would be easy to measure considering the Heathrow Express has one barrier line and could be differentiated from Elizabeth line passengers, but there are quirks.
I guess it depends on your end destination (is it better served by Bakerloo, onwards by GWR, or will be taking a taxi), availability of the cheaper tickets and your willingness to change (if you do want to continue by Elizabeth line).
RailWonderer
Established Member
I use Heathrow Express a few times a year by booking in advance with a walk up from my station in the South East to London on the day. It costs the same as the Elizabeth line in total and I pick up from the shops at Paddington as it's way cheaper than at the airport. Of course many people won't care about changing trains but HEX has to be competitive in order to convince people to change at Paddington to go non-stop.
Regarding Terminal 4, it should swap places with the BA maintanance depot. It would have made a lot more sense that way.
I agree, and have similarly used it. Even better with a railcard discount, and the difference with the Liz Line for the period in the morning before the Senior Railcard is valid then becomes even more marked.
But then I come into Paddington main line station, so from there, the HEx also has a “less hassle” factor that might be missing from journeys from elsewhere into Paddington.
Having now been watching HEx numbers decline over the past couple of years it really is surprising how much they have recovered.
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Interesting to see. I think people arrive at LHR and then do the first thing. And given the 4tph at T5, vs 2tph Crossrail (and way more cancellations / delays) - it's easy. I don't live in London any more so when I fly in, I am expensing. So the price doesn't matter. That plus a black cab from up top to wherever is a nice easy maneuver.
Crossrail is great for many journeys, but sometimes it takes 5 mins to get up and 5 to get out at each zone 1 station and you can lose the advantages - esp against the Central or SSL lines.
Crossrail is great for many journeys, but sometimes it takes 5 mins to get up and 5 to get out at each zone 1 station and you can lose the advantages - esp against the Central or SSL lines.
Apologies for the thread bump. I've been going to Heathrow on and off the last few weeks, using the Elizabeth line myself. The HEx trains I've observed (either through my train window at Airport Junction, on T5/CTA platforms, or travelling on HEx between T5 and CTA) have all tended to be busy - 50% loaded which is pretty good for a premium airport service. EL has been busy too.
RailWonderer
Established Member
Mine are never more than a quarter full when heading out to Heathrow in the morning and back in the evening, unless there's disruption and they can get full and standing. The ones that leave Paddington before a load of long haul flights are probably going to be more busy, so mid afternoon departures from Paddington as they have most long haul flights in the late afternoons and evenings, that's my experience. You hear more Americans especially at those times.
Sounds like a healthy range of loadings for a premium service. The ones I saw / were on that were quite full (~50%), albeit very low sample sizes, were to Heathrow in the morning and back in the evening ...
Farnborough
Member
To be honest, using a couple to do a regular T4-T2/3 shuttle, and all EL trains going to T5, would be a more effective usage, IMHO
Roughly what % occupation sees HEx as profitable? I use it a fair bit and it always seems relatively busy. Not including track access from EL.
What the increased use of both shows, and anecdotally things like LH pulling FRA from LCY (unthinkable!) - is that City Airport is probably now better closed for a chunk of land for a ton of housing development - in a very well served location. Pleasant enough too, all that water front. And heights could surely be eased / i.e. upped massively, in the broader catchment there.
What the increased use of both shows, and anecdotally things like LH pulling FRA from LCY (unthinkable!) - is that City Airport is probably now better closed for a chunk of land for a ton of housing development - in a very well served location. Pleasant enough too, all that water front. And heights could surely be eased / i.e. upped massively, in the broader catchment there.
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