The end for rail silk route ?

[MarcVD]

Sanctions or not: these companies stop transit through Russia

More and more companies are taking a stance and choose to avoid the New Silk Road through Russia, responding to the invasion of Russia in…

www.railfreight.com

1) If businesses find an alternative, not sure they will come back once (if) the crisis is over...

2) Southern alternative is mentioned, but the capacité isn’t there...

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Where exactly does this "New Silk Road" railway run from/to?

From China, then Mongolia (?), Kazakhstan (?), Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Western Europe?

 

[stuu]

Where exactly does this "New Silk Road" railway run from/to?

From China, then Mongolia (?), Kazakhstan (?), Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Western Europe?

Various, but I believe China-Kazakhstan-Russia-Belarus is the most often used route

 

[StephenHunter]

Yes, that's right. Terespol at the Polish border being the transhipment point between gauges.

This whole thing is part of China's "Belt and Round Initiative".

Belt and Road Initiative - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[MarcVD]

The current route is China - Mongolia or Kazakhstan - Russia - Belarius - Poland.

The new proposed route is China - Kazakhstan - Turkmenistan - Iran or Azerbaijan - Turkey - Bulgaria or Balkans but the capacity over that route has severe limitations.

 

[AlbertBeale]

The current route is China - Mongolia or Kazakhstan - Russia - Belarius - Poland.

The new proposed route is China - Kazakhstan - Turkmenistan - Iran or Azerbaijan - Turkey - Bulgaria or Balkans but the capacity over that route has severe limitations.

I don't understand the Iran or Azerbaijan - they aren't alternatives, since Azer has no border with either Turkey or Turkmenistan. I guess there might be a train ferry on the route across the Caspian Sea from Turkemenbasy to Baku, hence avoiding Iran, but even then to get from Azer to Turkey requires getting across Armenia [politically unlikely!] or Georgia.

 

[StephenHunter]

Intermodal containers can be put on trucks for that bit?

 

[plugwash]

The idea of the "rail silk route" was it would be cheaper and more environmentally friendly than air, while being quicker than ship.

The russia situation throws a great deal of uncertainty into everything though. Ethical considerations aside, it is more than possible that there could be further escalations and that such escalations could lead to your goods getting stuck. Is faster (compared to ship) or cheaper (compared to air) worth the risk?

 

[duesselmartin]

Is speed essential? I assume the goods are non perishable. So slow but reliable might be the best option.

 

[StephenHunter]

Going via ship has its own risks. Yemen at the southern end of the Red Sea has an ongoing civil war and the Houthi have anti-shipping capability. Suez is very much a chokepoint and a repeat of the Ever Given incident is a real possibility; it was blocked for eight years after the Six Way War of course.

 

[Irascible]

Going via ship has its own risks. Yemen at the southern end of the Red Sea has an ongoing civil war and the Houthi have anti-shipping capability. Suez is very much a chokepoint and a repeat of the Ever Given incident is a real possibility; it was blocked for eight years after the Six Way War of course.

If speed really is no concern then you can go back to using the Cape route if Suez is choked, which admittedly has some issues just with nature being unfriendly. The steady retreat of polar ice has made a north route viable sometimes but that does also run right around Russia. I don't know if a route around northern Canada has opened up yet.

 

[edwin_m]

A typical modern container ship carries 24000 Twenty-foot Equivalent Units. If that was put on trains it would be 90 miles long, not counting the extra length needed for couplings and "dead space". A dedicated railway appropriately constructed could probably carry a couple of ships' worth in a day, but there are many more ships than that and the railway is by no means dedicated to that flow. So the use of rail isn't going to make a big dent in the numbers going by ship, and the shippers will hardly notice if the rail service isn't there any longer.

Probably more problematic if some of it shifts to air. As well as the environmental downsides and the after-effects of Covid, aircraft either based in Russia or based in countries that have banned Russian flights and faced counter-bans will have to take much longer routes.

 

[MarcVD]

I don't understand the Iran or Azerbaijan - they aren't alternatives, since Azer has no border with either Turkey or Turkmenistan. I guess there might be a train ferry on the route across the Caspian Sea from Turkemenbasy to Baku, hence avoiding Iran, but even then to get from Azer to Turkey requires getting across Armenia [politically unlikely!] or Georgia.

I assumed I did not have to list all the countries traversed. Indeed it is Turkmenistan - Caspian sea ferry - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey (via tha New BTK route, assuming it is operational). Armenia route does not exist anymore, the track between Kars and Gyumri has been partially lifted. Capacity-wise, it does not look any better than via Iran and the Van lake ferry. Nothing that compares with the double track electrified transsib anyway.