The Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch

[brad465]

I don't think they will, for the simple reason that the Tories have a lot of strength in depth. Reform are only getting away with it right now because the Tories are still stuck in the aftermath of defeat, but they'll wake up by the time that the next election cycle starts. Having said that, Badenoch is completely the wrong person, and it says a lot about the Tories right now that they considered her a suitable leader.

Don't forget they only had 121 MPs from which to choose a leader - not exactly a wide field.

The three previous PMs who brought their party back to power all entered parliament in the election following the one the party previously lost power in (Blair in 1983, Cameron in 2001 and Starmer in 2015). They had the advantage that entering parliament at this time guaranteed their fingerprints were not over the party's last failures in government.

Therefore, if there is to be a future Tory PM, by all probability they are not in parliament yet. What they need is to either gain seats, and/or have a number of existing MPs stand down to make way for fresh faces who are able retain the seat.

 

[317 forever]

The three previous PMs who brought their party back to power all entered parliament in the election following the one the party previously lost power in (Blair in 1983, Cameron in 2001 and Starmer in 2015). They had the advantage that entering parliament at this time guaranteed their fingerprints were not over the party's last failures in government.

Therefore, if there is to be a future Tory PM, by all probability they are not in parliament yet. What they need is to either gain seats, and/or have a number of existing MPs stand down to make way for fresh faces who are able retain the seat.

Given Labour's majority I'm inclined to agree. Apparently Michael Heseltine has already stated a belief that the next Tory Prime Minister is not currently sitting in Parliament.

Mind you, this is not the same thing as Not yet an MP. So, it could be that a defeated Tory MP such as Penny Mordaunt or Grant Shapps comes back to Parliament, potentially through a safer seat, and becomes party leader and future PM.

 

[Harpo]

So, it could be that a defeated Tory MP such as Penny Mordaunt or Grant Shapps comes back to Parliament, potentially through a safer seat, and becomes party leader and future PM.

Shapps? Strewth! (Although he’d probably not use that name. )

 

[ChrisC]

@ChrisC

i find that an intersting paradox. That working class voters who feel ignored/alienated by the Starmer era Labour are turning to Reform.

The reason i say that is because Reform are not left wing in the slightest. Reform are in fact the catalyst that make the Tories go more to the right, and to reactionary/culture wars styles of political discourse.

That said, i live in the South East and cannot profess to understand the conplexities of voter sentiment in other area of the country such as the midlands or the north.

I posted about this recently in another thread but I can’t remember which one.

My observations are that the traditional working class voters in the ex mining communities around here along the Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire border are turning towards Reform. You only have to look at the Ashfield constituency where Lee Anderson won the seat for Reform. Unfortunately I can see the same thing happening in Mansfield, Sherwood Forest and other constituencies around here in 4 years time.

These people are old style Labour voters of the Denis Skinner type and they have very little in common with the Labour voters in London and the SE. Labour began to become less relevant to them with Tony Blair’s New Labour and fell even more out of favour with Jeremy Corbyn. There is a big “I want my country back” mentality around these areas and this was a big thing with Brexit and Boris. The Conservatives won seats they had never won before. Lee Anderson is now speaking their language and people who were once staunch Labour and hated the Conservatives are listening to him and others from Reform. You only have to go into a town centre pub in one of these now run down ex mining towns to find it full of people talking like Lee Anderson. They were very much white working class communities where lots of Eastern Europeans have come to live and immigration is a big issue with many people.

Kemi Badenoch and the current Conservatives will not win these people over and centre right people like me will probably vote Lib Dem because there isn’t much alternative. Interestingly there is quite a strong Independent presence these days in this area. Keir Starmer is not trusted and by many has been seen to be even worse for them than the Conservatives were over the last 14 years.

 

[Cloud Strife]

My observations are that the traditional working class voters in the ex mining communities around here along the Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire border are turning towards Reform. You only have to look at the Ashfield constituency where Lee Anderson won the seat for Reform. Unfortunately I can see the same thing happening in Mansfield, Sherwood Forest and other constituencies around here in 4 years time.

This is the exact same thing that's happening all over Europe: the previous left wing / working class communities are lurching very heavily to the far right. It's largely a consequence of a generation growing up without any hope, not helped by large parties (in this case, both Labour and the Tories) paying them lip service before elections and then ignoring them. Many of these communities had generations working in the mines, and now they're working in meaningless low paid jobs or unemployed rather than "earning an honest day's wage".

I was reading recently about how a charity set up to support former mining towns has been selling off their social welfare sites (football pitches, social clubs, etc), and the money isn't reinvested into local communities. It doesn't take a genius to work out that the charity will be using some of these funds to pay for their own existence, and these communities feel abandoned and betrayed. These sites could and should have been managed locally, but the UK has a huge problem with faceless charities making decisions to suit their own pockets rather than the communities that they claim to represent.

I think there is also a valid point that many MPs from all sides of the political spectrum have no idea what it's like to have a pint in a working class pub, or what the issues are in such pubs. While Reform might be a bunch of chancers, they're speaking the same language as the dodgy bloke down the pub who drives a van by day and who flogs pirate TV boxes by night.

One thing about Eastern European communities: I'd actually say that (living in Poland), one big defining factor here is that there's no real sense of community. I didn't understand this until moving here, but there's no real concept of the pub as the centre of the village or town. The villages essentially work on the basis of a few community events a year, but people simply don't socialise in such places. The Czechs and Slovaks do, but that's about it. As a result, I'm not surprised that these communities have ended up fractured and broken, because people moving in will have kept themselves to themselves and contributed to overcrowding in schools/hospitals without integrating.

 

[brad465]

This is the exact same thing that's happening all over Europe: the previous left wing / working class communities are lurching very heavily to the far right. It's largely a consequence of a generation growing up without any hope, not helped by large parties (in this case, both Labour and the Tories) paying them lip service before elections and then ignoring them. Many of these communities had generations working in the mines, and now they're working in meaningless low paid jobs or unemployed rather than "earning an honest day's wage".

I was reading recently about how a charity set up to support former mining towns has been selling off their social welfare sites (football pitches, social clubs, etc), and the money isn't reinvested into local communities. It doesn't take a genius to work out that the charity will be using some of these funds to pay for their own existence, and these communities feel abandoned and betrayed. These sites could and should have been managed locally, but the UK has a huge problem with faceless charities making decisions to suit their own pockets rather than the communities that they claim to represent.

I think there is also a valid point that many MPs from all sides of the political spectrum have no idea what it's like to have a pint in a working class pub, or what the issues are in such pubs. While Reform might be a bunch of chancers, they're speaking the same language as the dodgy bloke down the pub who drives a van by day and who flogs pirate TV boxes by night.

One thing about Eastern European communities: I'd actually say that (living in Poland), one big defining factor here is that there's no real sense of community. I didn't understand this until moving here, but there's no real concept of the pub as the centre of the village or town. The villages essentially work on the basis of a few community events a year, but people simply don't socialise in such places. The Czechs and Slovaks do, but that's about it. As a result, I'm not surprised that these communities have ended up fractured and broken, because people moving in will have kept themselves to themselves and contributed to overcrowding in schools/hospitals without integrating.

Were/are working class communities also somewhat religious? I think the decline of religious observance nationally has had a negative community impact. Whether you believe in a particular god or not, practising that religion included meeting others at churches/places of worship and community events organised by parishes enhanced this. But if you're not observing a religion, either due to becoming atheist or never having such an upbringing, chances are your community involvement is much lower, which scaled up leads to less community activity as alternative community activities/clubs/groups haven't replaced religious stuff strongly enough.

Whatever the case, I do believe the decline in religion in the UK (and some other Western nations) and the impacts it's had on politics and culture is a very under-researched area.

 

[FinsburyPark]

Were/are working class communities also somewhat religious? I think the decline of religious observance nationally has had a negative community impact. Whether you believe in a particular god or not, practising that religion included meeting others at churches/places of worship and community events organised by parishes enhanced this. But if you're not observing a religion, either due to becoming atheist or never having such an upbringing, chances are your community involvement is much lower, which scaled up leads to less community activity as alternative community activities/clubs/groups haven't replaced religious stuff strongly enough.

Whatever the case, I do believe the decline in religion in the UK (and some other Western nations) and the impacts it's had on politics and culture is a very under-researched area.

As a 100% non religious person, this is true.

Most churches are good at all the kids events, the family events and the fun days etc.

The church is how they 'get a foot in the door' and the attendees quickly realise there are more activities on offer than just the Sunday service alone.

Yes non religious groups put on events and activities, but the church historically has been the way they get started.

In my local area I've known someone who is entirely non religious go to the local churche's mothers and baby event because they do it better than who ever else and have more attendees.

 

[The Ham]

As a 100% non religious person, this is true.

Most churches are good at all the kids events, the family events and the fun days etc.

The church is how they 'get a foot in the door' and the attendees quickly realise there are more activities on offer than just the Sunday service alone.

Yes non religious groups put on events and activities, but the church historically has been the way they get started.

In my local area I've known someone who is entirely non religious go to the local churche's mothers and baby event because they do it better than who ever else and have more attendees.

At the peak of sure start there were more patent and children groups run by churches than sure start centres (and whilst the numbers in churches may have reduced no where near as much as the cuts to government funded services).

There's more children groups run by churches than there are scout groups. (In the UK about 1/3 of churches have 5+ people aged 0-16, this is about 12,000 churches, there's about 10,000 scout groups). Although to provide a fair assessment there's about 100,000 children who go to a church group, whilst the Scouts have about 400,000.

Many churches run coffee mornings, often attended by older people, providing then with company.

They often are heavily involved in community events, for example the local road race has a number of marshalls provided by one of the local churches (which opts not to meet on the Sunday morning of that event in support of the road race, and a number of others from the church run in the race).

There are also churches in settlements where there's little else (although that's less common than it was).

Churches often see a boost when people from counties with higher rates of church attendance move to an area (if I was being flippant I might suggest that those who want people to integrate into traditional British values aren't where they should be to help people integrate).

I'm not saying that churches are always the best, but many of them try to do something.

 

[takno]

Were/are working class communities also somewhat religious? I think the decline of religious observance nationally has had a negative community impact. Whether you believe in a particular god or not, practising that religion included meeting others at churches/places of worship and community events organised by parishes enhanced this. But if you're not observing a religion, either due to becoming atheist or never having such an upbringing, chances are your community involvement is much lower, which scaled up leads to less community activity as alternative community activities/clubs/groups haven't replaced religious stuff strongly enough.

Whatever the case, I do believe the decline in religion in the UK (and some other Western nations) and the impacts it's had on politics and culture is a very under-researched area.

I don't disgree, although I'd struggle to describe some of the political and moral attitudes of our churches as being especially positive.

I'd argue that there's been a much wider hollowing-out of community in the UK and worldwide. There's been massive loss of religious and civic-run social spaces, as well pubs and social clubs. There is less professional support, and long working hours and a more complex safeguarding environment leads to less volunteers. To some extent people socialise at work instead, but that leads to much less generational cohesion, and less mixing of people from different backgrounds.

 

[Yew]

Labour began to become less relevant to them with Tony Blair’s New Labour and fell even more out of favour with Jeremy Corbyn. There is a big “I want my country back” mentality around these areas and this was a big thing with Brexit and Boris. T

Frustratingly, the economics of Corbyn were probably much closer to what the region actually needs. I imagine Corynite economics with a more traditional stance on national pride etc would go down very well there, as a counter for the far-right.

 

[AlterEgo]

This total tumbleweed of a person just defended Vance’s belittling of the UK as “a random country which hasn’t fought a war in 40 years”. Her defence spokesperson condemned Vance’s insult but no, she blindly follows whatever the Trump line is. She has no idea what British interests are. A vacuum for a brain.

She will be gone soon. Shame, becuase she was doing so well at making the Tories irrelevant.

 

[Yew]

This total tumbleweed of a person just defended Vance’s belittling of the UK as “a random country which hasn’t fought a war in 40 years”. Her defence spokesperson condemned Vance’s insult but no, she blindly follows whatever the Trump line is. She has no idea what British interests are. A vacuum for a brain.

She will be gone soon. Shame, becuase she was doing so well at making the Tories irrelevant.

I must have imagined those troops in the Gulf War, Afganistan and Iraq then...

 

[AlterEgo]

I must have imagined those troops in the Gulf War, Afganistan and Iraq then...

I knew a bloke who lost his leg in Iraq. He was about 22.

We debased ourselves for that at the US’s behest; Vance is repellent.

There will be a lot of Tory voters and members who have a personal memory of recent war like mine and will be appalled at Badenoch’s defence of such an insult. A pathetic, toadying individual worthy only of contempt.

 

[Gloster]

This total tumbleweed of a person just defended Vance’s belittling of the UK as “a random country which hasn’t fought a war in 40 years”. Her defence spokesperson condemned Vance’s insult but no, she blindly follows whatever the Trump line is. She has no idea what British interests are. A vacuum for a brain.

She will be gone soon. Shame, becuase she was doing so well at making the Tories irrelevant.

If so, we shall have to see if any of the shadow cabinet have enough backbone to resign. One or two might, but probably not enough to matter. I am definitely unsure here as I haven’t got a clue who most of the shadow cabinet are.

 

[telstarbox]

After today's results will the Tories be contesting all seats in 2029 or doing a deal with Reform?

 

[AlterEgo]

Have they taken Badenoch around the back of the barn with a shotgun yet or not?

 

[The Ham]

Have they taken Badenoch around the back of the barn with a shotgun yet or not?

This set of local elections was always going to be a tough sell for the Tories (these seats last came up during the COVID vaccine bounce).

Also, one swift does not make a summer. It'll be interesting to see how Reform do in running their councils.

Even on a very basic level, with their policy of no WFH, that's going to make recruitment/retention much harder (and it's already hard, especially getting planning case officers).

That has the risk of services not being delivered.

No problem you say, only it will be. For example, if planning applications are not determined it's possible for developers to submit a planning appeal. If the council is found wanting on the decision they can be faced with payment of the costs of the applicant.

Whilst not all the councils with elections will deal with planning applications (for example planning in Kent is a district council rather than country council matter) they will be consulties for placing applications (for example Kent Highways).

Somewhere like North Nottinghamshire (Reform) which is close to Cambridgeshire (Lib Dems) could find it especially hard given the benefits some of the district councils in Cambridgeshire have found from 4 day weeks (that's before people even have to consider working in the private sector).

The other issue, is that such policies will mean that a few good staff will go and work elsewhere, the bad staff will just coast doing the bear minimum not to get sacked and the amount of work getting done will reduce, which means that life there gets harder for the good staff, so more of them leave, etc.

That's all assuming that the staff don't strike (and no you can't fire staff for striking).

 

[Magdalia]

Somewhere like North Nottinghamshire (Reform) which is close to Cambridgeshire (Lib Dems) could find it especially hard given the benefits some of the district councils in Cambridgeshire have found from 4 day weeks

Only South Cambridgeshire District is working a 4 day week, though there are a few services that it shares with Cambridge City where the Cambridge City staff are on a 4 day week too.

I don't know where you are looking from but Nottinghamshire is about 100 miles away from South Cambridgeshire.

 

[The Ham]

Only South Cambridgeshire District is working a 4 day week, though there are a few services that it shares with Cambridge City where the Cambridge City staff are on a 4 day week too.

I don't know where you are looking from but Nottinghamshire is about 100 miles away from South Cambridgeshire.

Whilst South Cambridgeshire is a long distance away, the impcts could appear that far.

Probably not directly (although someone starting out with no ties may opt for one over the other or those with few ties may relocate) but it's likely close enough that people from the next district over could move jobs which then might attract people from the next district.

However, I was suggest that once one district council does something (and with evidence it's working) others will follow suit (especially without the Tories threatening to remove such policies) so the distance might get smaller over the next few years.

 

[Magdalia]

Whilst South Cambridgeshire is a long distance away, the impcts could appear that far.

Probably not directly (although someone starting out with no ties may opt for one over the other or those with few ties may relocate) but it's likely close enough that people from the next district over could move jobs which then might attract people from the next district.

However, I was suggest that once one district council does something (and with evidence it's working) others will follow suit (especially without the Tories threatening to remove such policies) so the distance might get smaller over the next few years.

You are right that there could be a ripple effect. Two councils where this really could matter are West Northamptonshire and North Northamptonshire, both unitaries with Reform gaining overall control. Both are relatively easily commutable to South Cambridgeshire, which is located in Cambourne. Furthermore, the 4 day week is a signature policy of the Liberal Democrats, and they have now gained control over Cambridgeshire County, though with an overall majority of one. Cambridgeshire County is now at Alconbury and an even easier commute from West Northamptonshire and North Northamptonshire. Even if Cambridgeshire County doesn't move quickly to a 4 day week, the prospects of that happening after reorganisation are high.

However, this is only tangentially related to the Conservative Party, apart from their strident opposition to the South Cambridgeshire 4 day week trial.

 

[MotCO]

Have they taken Badenoch around the back of the barn with a shotgun yet or not?

Would it make much difference who was leading the Tories? In a leader election contest, the MPs decide the last two candidates, before putting them to the membership, but Central Office determine who can stand as an MP, and therefore influence the direction of travel of the party. What seems to be clear is that MPs, and thus Central Office, seem to be out of touch with what the public want (and it is also true for Labour), hence the rise of Reform.

 

[317 forever]

I heard an odd report earlier this week, when Robert Jenrick had referred to a coalition of voters (Tory plus Reform). It was mentioned how he is popular among the grass roots. So, this begged the question why, if he is so popular with them, why they did not even vote for him as Leader.

The Tories have done worse in this year's Shire elections than when they were famously given a "bloody nose" in 1993. At least they held onto Buckinghamshire that year.

 

[david1212]

Would it make much difference who was leading the Tories? In a leader election contest, the MPs decide the last two candidates, before putting them to the membership, but Central Office determine who can stand as an MP, and therefore influence the direction of travel of the party.

Out of those currently available to choose from no.

What seems to be clear is that MPs, and thus Central Office, seem to be out of touch with what the public want (and it is also true for Labour), hence the rise of Reform.

The best the Tories can do is in 4 years time, presuming Starmer & Co. don't badly blot their copybook, field a set of candidates that are in touch with a significantly higher proportion of the voting public so get a higher proportion of MP's. Then over the following 5 years keep in touch with this group plus select a new leader and show they are working well together so at end of the 5 years they in a good position to again become the governing party.

 

[Cloud Strife]

So, this begged the question why, if he is so popular with them, why they did not even vote for him as Leader.

I think no-one sane can explain why they went with Badenoch. The only answer I have is that Kemi was intentionally chosen because they knew she would fail, but by failing now, she won't hurt their chances in the next GE because she'll give up before it.

I wouldn't be shocked if Penny Mordaunt reappears about 18 months before the next GE to challenge Kemi and to get rid of her.

 

[Thirteen]

I think no-one sane can explain why they went with Badenoch. The only answer I have is that Kemi was intentionally chosen because they knew she would fail, but by failing now, she won't hurt their chances in the next GE because she'll give up before it.

I wouldn't be shocked if Penny Mordaunt reappears about 18 months before the next GE to challenge Kemi and to get rid of her.

Penny Mordaunt is currently not a MP so it'd be difficult for her to replace Kemi Badenoch,

 

[Statto]

Penny Mordaunt is currently not a MP so it'd be difficult for her to replace Kemi Badenoch,

Didn't Mordaunt recently get another job outside politics, that she's unlikely to return to politics anytime soon?

Can see the likes if Jenrick being the next leader, the Tories doing deals with Reform, Badenoch is so useless, she'll be gone by Christmas

 

[Bletchleyite]

To me it seems that the Tories have two options - merge or otherwise ally with Reform, or fade into obscurity and let Reform replace them.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Badenoch is so useless

Yes

she'll be gone by Christmas

Don’t think so. Too far out from the next election and Reform still unlikely to have been found out by then, so the useful idiot will still be, er, useful by then

 

[Statto]

Yes




Don’t think so. Too far out from the next election and Reform still unlikely to have been found out by then, so the useful idiot will still be, er, useful by then

The Tories are quite ruthless for getting rid of leaders they see not able to do the job (see how they got rid of Truss after only 7 weeks as PM), quite hilarious the misstake was the leadership election & the Tory MPs overthinking things as Cleverly ended up being knocked out, Cleverly would have been more of a threat to Starmer.

 

[MotCO]

Penny Mordaunt is currently not a MP so it'd be difficult for her to replace Kemi Badenoch,

She would have to win a by-election; at the current rate, Reform will win every by-election going!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 May 2025 ==

To me it seems that the Tories have two options - merge or otherwise ally with Reform, or fade into obscurity and let Reform replace them.

I can't see a merger being in Reform's best interests. A lot of the current Tories are middle-of-the-road liberals rather than right wing, so Reform would have to pick and choose which ones it wants to ally with. Maybe Reform will not contest seats winnable by right wing Tories, and Tories not contest the other seats?