KashmireHawker
Member
Several Bundle Check’s are currently ongoing, with folk suggesting a 300 win for LABOUR.
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The Batley & Spen by-election
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Snow1964
Established Member
Labour win with 13,296 votes
Conservatives second 12,973 votes
14 other candidates
Conservatives second 12,973 votes
14 other candidates
KashmireHawker
Member
Absolutely MARVELLOUS result; even if's a majority of just 323!
Our vote fell by 8% on 2019 but the Tories also lost 2%, thanks to Galloway picking up 22% and that part squeeze of the Tory vote, is what seemingly did it.
That plus Hancock's scandal perhaps? Regardless, its a win and that is all that counts!
It certainly seems to have been a chaotic result. When it's that close you can never say for certainty what caused it, but I think Kim Leadbetter being the only local candidate in the race probably got her over the line. Had the Conservatives nominated someone more rooted in the community, rather than a bland councillor from the posh part of Leeds, that could have made all the difference.
This is just a rumour, but I heard (from a source I trust who knows people who were at the count) that Galloway won Batley and the Conservatives won the rest of the seat. Obviously that's just hearsay and should be taken with a pinch of salt, but it would be pretty likely given the figures. If true I suppose it's a good thing, because having the winner be someone who did reasonably well across all of Batley and Spen (rather than just very well in one half of it) might help bring the community together.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Can you let me have tonight's lottery numbers too?
Great result for Kim and what a relief!
REVUpminster
Established Member
When an election is this close the postal votes need to be carefully vetted as in big families they are all to easily manipulated.
pdq
Member
- Joined
- 7 Oct 2010
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- 894
Huge relief. I know Kim a little and her passion and enthusiasm for the local area and people's welfare is palpable.
I find it very sad that many people voted at a local level for an outsider largely on the basis of international policy. Hey ho.
I find it very sad that many people voted at a local level for an outsider largely on the basis of international policy. Hey ho.
Butts
Veteran Member
A reprieve for Starmer ..... 
He went immediately to a live-stream to confirm he will take the result to Electoral Court, labelling it a "banana republic" result and blaming the Returning Officer for refusing a recount.
I haven't had reason to check ROTPA for a while, but even I know that a Returning Officer can refuse a recount from a third-party candidate.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
I suppose the Conservatives will not be too unhappy, as the result is something of a knock-back to the hopes of the extreme left of the Labour Party.
Galloway’s disgusting, backward, homophobic campaign saw him net 22% of the vote. There will be absolutely no discussion in the mainstream political agenda as to whether this is a problem because of the kind of people who voted for him.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
The problem is that 22% as you state is not just a small percentage total of the vote. not just a small number of people who appear to hold such views.
daodao
Established Member
Yes - it is likely to prolong Starmer's maladroit tenure of the post of Labour party leader. While it would have been worse for Labour if the red wall had actually been breached, it is not a good result for the main opposition party.A reprieve for Starmer .....
Butts
Veteran Member
What kind of people please extrapolate.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
I am not sure of what I heard on the radio, but did someone actually say that in the last 50 years, a party in power had only won three by-elections where the seat had been held by opposition parties in the mid-term of their tenure. Can someone correct this if that is wrong.
KashmireHawker
Member
I believe so - Mitcham and Morden in 1982, Copeland in 2017 and Hartlepool 8 weeks ago.
Hows that for a pub quiz question?
That's true - it's only happened five* times since the war. One of those five, rather appropriately, was in a constituency called Brighouse and Spenborough - much of which is now part of Batley and Spen.
* six if you include a very contested by-election in Bristol South East in 1961 - Tony Benn won the most votes as a Labour candidate but was disqualified so the Conservative party gained the seat while in power.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
The last two postings were very quick "off the mark" and did not show the missing section that I was in the process of adding to my posting. Please see the wording of my edited posting where I clarified "a seat held by opposition parties".
When a Tory party worker came around belatedly last night I gave him a list of reasons why I switched my vote from Tory to Labour, but the biggest reason is I think the country needs a sensible alternative to the Tories not Corbyn Mk2, so I am pleased Kim won and somewhat disappointed to see how many votes Galloway got but not entirely surprised.
You didn't say, but I don't think that my guess that you're talking about George Galloway is likely to be wrong here ....
Purple Orange
On Moderation
The margin of the Labour win is a misleading factor here. This is a good result for Labour, but worse for the Tories. The Workers party acheived 20% of the vote share, but the question is where that came from and which party could potentially benefit from winning those votes next time around.
The 12% vote share for the Brexit Party in 2019 will have mostly gone to the Workers Party, but these voters are not attracted by the Tories. The decrease in the Labour vote will likely be represented by the left wing of the party who are attracted to Galloway but were not attracted by Farage. Therefore what this represents is a 20% share of the electorate in Batley & Spen that Labour can grasp as an opportunity, but those they don’t win won’t go to the Tories either.
The 12% vote share for the Brexit Party in 2019 will have mostly gone to the Workers Party, but these voters are not attracted by the Tories. The decrease in the Labour vote will likely be represented by the left wing of the party who are attracted to Galloway but were not attracted by Farage. Therefore what this represents is a 20% share of the electorate in Batley & Spen that Labour can grasp as an opportunity, but those they don’t win won’t go to the Tories either.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
The Tories clearly hoped Galloway would win them the seat. He nearly did by running a disgustingly divisive and extremely personal campaign.
Any of the media coverage of the campaign will evidence who Galloway was pitching at. His campaign was designed to attract the less tolerant, less integrated and/or extreme members of the Islamic community and ensure Labour lost. Of course, he also attracts the clown town Corbyn fanboy SWP types who want Labour to lose and instead be a forum for silly student politics and Palestine love ins.
Any of the media coverage of the campaign will evidence who Galloway was pitching at. His campaign was designed to attract the less tolerant, less integrated and/or extreme members of the Islamic community and ensure Labour lost. Of course, he also attracts the clown town Corbyn fanboy SWP types who want Labour to lose and instead be a forum for silly student politics and Palestine love ins.
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Purple Orange
On Moderation
Yes he nearly did win it for the Tories, but the votes he won aren’t votes that will go to the Tories either. They are votes that Labour can look upon as an opportunity to attract and the job of Labour now is to figure out how to win those people over again. A difficult but not impossible task.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
A good local MP will start that process. The people of Batley seem to have elected a good un so there is plenty of hope.
TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
Absolutely this.
Galloway is a political opportunist who, whilst having a long term adherence to pro-Palestine views, has stoked up the division around LGBT teaching etc. That will have turned the heads of some Muslim voters but also those who are against the "centrists" in the Labour Party who don't follow the Corbyn agenda of socialist purity.
I've said before that the Labour Party need to focus on what people want in their everyday lives, and the selection of a local candidate (with the special circumstances given what happened to her sister) is testimony to that. Labour need to get away from Palestine/Israel and Transphobia (not wishing to denigrate anyone's views on those) because, quite simply, whilst people might be discussing that in the artisan coffee shops of Stoke Newington and Islington, they aren't doing so in the cafes of Batley, Burnley or Bishop Auckland.
brad465
Veteran Member
Galloway's vote share suggests he was winning more than just previous Labour voters, I somehow don't think Labour would have got 57% of the vote had Galloway not been there at all. The Tory share, while down less than Labour's, was also down 1.7% as well.
That seems to be absolutely right, I've just seen an interview with her she came across as just so genuine. I was particularly pleased with the way she spoke about the Conservative and LibDem campaigns (and did not name Galloway). She strikes me as someone who would fight (and fight) for a good cause.
I am pleased that this is what she said her first priorities are. She now has to deliver. The good news for her is that the summer recess can't be far away, she will have quite a few weeks when she won't be required to attend the House, so the opportunity to show the voters that they made the right decision.
TravelDream
Member
- Joined
- 7 Aug 2016
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- 1,162
The winners from the by-election: Leadbetter, Starmer, Labour centrists, everyone of us given Galloway's divisive camapign.
Neither won/ lost: The Conservative party.
The losers: The Labour left/ anti-Starmerites, the idea than Boris Johnson is an unbeatable machine.
They obviously didn't.
Their hope was that Galloway would split the Labour vote allowing them to move through the middle. Galloway did split their vote and got a lot more votes than many predicted. However, it wasn't enough for him or the Conservative party.
From reading a few people I would trust online, it appears Labour did better in traditional Tory areas than 2019. Perhaps they were disgusted at Galloway's campaign or perhaps they are starting the slow journey of coming back to Labour.
A by-election win would also cement the narrative that Johnson is unbeatable in the so-called red wall.
Neither won/ lost: The Conservative party.
The losers: The Labour left/ anti-Starmerites, the idea than Boris Johnson is an unbeatable machine.
They obviously didn't.
Their hope was that Galloway would split the Labour vote allowing them to move through the middle. Galloway did split their vote and got a lot more votes than many predicted. However, it wasn't enough for him or the Conservative party.
From reading a few people I would trust online, it appears Labour did better in traditional Tory areas than 2019. Perhaps they were disgusted at Galloway's campaign or perhaps they are starting the slow journey of coming back to Labour.
A by-election win would also cement the narrative that Johnson is unbeatable in the so-called red wall.
The Tories and the right wing press seem to be trying to blame Matt Hancock, I guess he's a good scape goat but I think they are deluding themselves with that in the same way the Labour left just blamed Brexit and not the Leader or the polices for the 2019 election defeat.
I see Abbott has been spouting about not abandoning 2019 policies she really needs to push off and join her friend as an independent.
I see Abbott has been spouting about not abandoning 2019 policies she really needs to push off and join her friend as an independent.
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