The 2024 US presidential election.

[nw1]

You're missing the fact that many non-voters or occasional voters will be galvanised by Trump's show of strength and will perceive him differently now he has been the subject of an attempted murder.

Trump may also strike a slightly less combative tone now which may increase his appeal among softer, undecided voters.

It's not just "MAGA v sensibles". This is an immature way of looking at US politics; there are many undecided voters in the swing states and the assassination attempt shows Trump as courageous and strong, which is in stark contrast to Biden's complete ineptitude and failing health and mental capacity.

Trump was already running a cleaner, more polished, and more mature campaign than 2016 and 2020, which did not even try to focus on his apparent strength or virility; they've been letting Biden simply embarrass himself.

This is very bad news for the Dems, as now Trump has received one of the strongest unsolicited boosts to a campaign you can have.


Sorry but this will age like a pint of milk and I will revisit it in November when it'll be blue cheese!

Still very hard for me to understand but as I said in another post, I guess I'll just have to accept that the US is not at all like the UK. I guess many of us make the mistake that because there are some cultural similarities, people will think similarly and that events such as January 2021 or his status as a convicted felon would put people off for life.

In my head he's rather like a more extreme version of Farage, and thus by rights ought to do as well as Reform. But again I am being a little too UK-centric, I guess.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Jul 2024 ==

The world dosn't work that way anymore. It seems to be "If you agree with me on issue x, you must agree with me on every other single issue. Otherwise we are enemies."

As I said though, Scalia seemed to be just what I'd call an old-fashioned conservative. Taylor Greene is, IMO, an unhinged far-right conspiracy theorist, who, from my perspective, you'd have to be insane to vote for.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Trust me, in many ways the US is not like the UK. Imho I have a great perspective as I have lived in the US for 24 years. I will post a fuller reply on why, later today.

To give just one point, Americans can not get their heads around the fact that Churchill lost in a landslide to Attlee in the general election of 1945. Eisenhower became president later on.

 

[brad465]

Trump will build the Mexico border wall, but it won't be to keep Mexican's out, it will be to keep Americans in.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Trump will build the Mexico border wall, but it won't be to keep Mexican's out, it will be to keep Americans in.

Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a pithy saying?

 

[brad465]

Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a pithy saying?

What do you mean by pithy? It definitely wasn't meant to be taken literally.

 

[Purple Train]

The world dosn't work that way anymore. It seems to be "If you agree with me on issue x, you must agree with me on every other single issue. Otherwise we are enemies."

Of course, one look at cross-party friendships in Westminster would disprove that (see Labour MP Florence Eshalomi's warm words this afternoon for former Conservative MP Nickie Aiken, for starters) - but things do increasingly seem to be going this way, sadly.

Trump's way of thinking will only make this worse.

 

[edwin_m]

Meanwhile, eclipsed by other events and (I think) unrecorded on this thread, Judge Cannon has thrown out the secret documents case on the grounds that the special prosecutor allegedly wasn't legally appointed. This is apparently open to an appeal that could get her replaced, but I suspect it would have to go all the way to the Supreme Court first.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Meanwhile, eclipsed by other events and (I think) unrecorded on this thread, Judge Cannon has thrown out the secret documents case on the grounds that the special prosecutor allegedly wasn't legally appointed. This is apparently open to an appeal that could get her replaced, but I suspect it would have to go all the way to the Supreme Court first.

By which time the November election will have been held.

 

[AlterEgo]

Still very hard for me to understand but as I said in another post, I guess I'll just have to accept that the US is not at all like the UK. I guess many of us make the mistake that because there are some cultural similarities, people will think similarly and that events such as January 2021 or his status as a convicted felon would put people off for life.

In my head he's rather like a more extreme version of Farage, and thus by rights ought to do as well as Reform. But again I am being a little too UK-centric, I guess.

The USA is a completely foreign country and any comparisons with the UK, especially when it comes to political culture, are usually not useful.

The idea that Trump "by rights should get about 14% vote share" belies such a lack of understanding of how much of America thinks and feels - notwithstanding the fact Trump *has actually been the President before* - make me wonder how you are making these assumptions!

 

[nw1]

The USA is a completely foreign country and any comparisons with the UK, especially when it comes to political culture, are usually not useful.

The idea that Trump "by rights should get about 14% vote share" belies such a lack of understanding of how much of America thinks and feels - notwithstanding the fact Trump *has actually been the President before* - make me wonder how you are making these assumptions!

Of course when he was president before, January 2021 hadn't happened, nor had all the vote rigging nonsense, nor had his comparison of his opponents with "vermin". The 2016-20 Trump, to me, was considerably less extreme than the 2021 onwards version.

As I said I find it hard to understand why his 2021-onwards behaviour wouldn't put people off for life. You can't imagine Boris Johnson, in a million years, comparing his opponents with "vermin", let alone people like May, Cameron, Blair, or Major - or, from the US, Reagan or Bush.

But I guess I have only ever visited Blue states (and quite strongly Blue ones, at that) and that colours my perception of the USA.

 

[Busaholic]

Trust me, in many ways the US is not like the UK. Imho I have a great perspective as I have lived in the US for 24 years. I will post a fuller reply on why, later today.

To give just one point, Americans can not get their heads around the fact that Churchill lost in a landslide to Attlee in the general election of 1945. Eisenhower became president later on.

Never a truer word than in your first sentence. We are ''divided by a common language'' as someone once said. My experience of the USA is tiny, almost historical and confined to one large state, but a long-standing internet subscription to the New York Times and other sites, including all the major TV networks, means I can get some sense of ''what makes people tick'' in many situations. The concept of 'justice' seems to be very much stronger in the USA, though of course what that means differs so widely. 'Rights' and 'Constitution' also appear on many lips. In many ways the average American strikes me as much more law-abiding than a UK one, when driving a car being an obvious example. However, the pernicious acceptance of a gun culture seems to hang over much of the US, with schools and colleges bearing the brunt.

 

[JamesT]

Of course when he was president before, January 2021 hadn't happened, nor had all the vote rigging nonsense, nor had his comparison of his opponents with "vermin". The 2016-20 Trump, to me, was considerably less extreme than the 2021 onwards version.

As I said I find it hard to understand why his 2021-onwards behaviour wouldn't put people off for life. You can't imagine Boris Johnson, in a million years, comparing his opponents with "vermin", let alone people like May, Cameron, Blair, or Major - or, from the US, Reagan or Bush.

But I guess I have only ever visited Blue states (and quite strongly Blue ones, at that) and that colours my perception of the USA.

Famously, it’s a 40s Labour politician who described his opponents as “lower than vermin”. You can even buy t-shirts with the quote - https://www.redmolotov.com/nye-bevan-vermin-tshirt

 

[Busaholic]

Famously, it’s a 40s Labour politician who described his opponents as “lower than vermin”. You can even buy t-shirts with the quote - https://www.redmolotov.com/nye-bevan-vermin-tshirt

Which is why you should judge politicians on their actions rather than their words. I'd say that, on balance, the people of the UK gained far more from the presence of Nye Bevan in government than if he hadn't been appointed.

 

[Gloster]

Famously, it’s a 40s Labour politician who described his opponents as “lower than vermin”. You can even buy t-shirts with the quote - https://www.redmolotov.com/nye-bevan-vermin-tshirt

You can, or could, also buy mugs with the quote: I bought one, along with an ‘I still hate Margaret Thatcher’ mug. Luckily I am right-handed as that means that I see the quote when I drink: if I was left-handed I would see the picture of Thatcher that is on the other side.

 

[brad465]

Biden reported to have said he'd consider withdrawing if a medical condition emerged, in what looks like a climbdown from his "Only The Lord Almighty can make me step down". Reading between the lines I wonder if this is potentially setting up his withdrawal, where he could cite a change in circumstances:

Joe Biden tests positive for Covid; Chuck Schumer says report he told president to quit race is ‘idle speculation’ – as it happened

White House says president has mild symptoms after he was forced to cancel Las Vegas speech; spokesperson says Schumer made caucus views known directly to president

www.theguardian.com

Biden says he'd consider withdrawing if 'medical condition' emerges – report

Joe Biden said he would consider dropping out of the presidential race if a “medical condition” emerged, the New York Times reports, citing an excerpt released from Biden’s interview with Ed Gordon of BET News.

According to the Times, Biden was asked if there was any reason that would make him reconsider staying in the presidential race.

In response, Biden said:

If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem.

Earlier this month, Biden said during an interview with ABC host George Stephanopoulos that he would only drop out of the race if the “Lord Almighty” told him to do so.

Biden’s comments come amid increasing calls from Democrats to withdraw his re-election bid over concerns of his age and mental competency, particularly after his poor debate performance against Donald Trump.

 

[birchesgreen]

Biden reported to have said he'd consider withdrawing if a medical condition emerged, in what looks like a climbdown from his "Only The Lord Almighty can make me step down". Reading between the lines I wonder if this is potentially setting up his withdrawal, where he could cite a change in circumstances:

Yes he is going, this is how he goes with honour.

 

[nlogax]

Reading between the lines I wonder if this is potentially setting up his withdrawal, where he could cite a change in circumstances:

We can only hope. The gulf between the Dems and the GOP hasn't been this wide for many years and if the Dems' current setup doesn't change (like, yesterday) November will see a sizeable Trump win. No doubt about it.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

We can only hope. The gulf between the Dems and the GOP hasn't been this wide for many years and if the Dems' current setup doesn't change (like, yesterday) November will see a sizeable Trump win. No doubt about it.

Yes. Resign almost immediately on medical grounds. Kamala Harris immediately becomes President Democrat win 1. Fight the election as the incumbent democrat win 2. I am sorry but Biden is done.

Yes he is going, this is how he goes with honour.

Correct

 

[wilbers]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/joe-biden-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

President Joe Biden has tested positive for Covid-19, according to the president and CEO of UnidosUS Janet Murguía.

Biden was expected to speak at the group’s conference in Las Vegas Wednesday night.

Remains to be seen how much of an effect it has, but looks like that speech has been cancelled to start with.

 

[Busaholic]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/joe-biden-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

Remains to be seen how much of an effect it has, but looks like that speech has been cancelled to start with.

There's his get out clause. Let everyone say 'thank you, God', if that's what wanted, but too little, too late.

Maybe I'm being a little cynical here, but this time four years ago Trump was lagging in the opinion polls, then suddenly it's announced he's tested covid positive. After a very short time. though, Trump is triumphantly announcing he's totally recovered and it's all down to his inate strength and determination. Cue rise in opinion poll ratings. Relevant medical personnel were very guarded in their responses to questions. My feeling at the time was that either it was a false positive or that the whole event was concocted.
,

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes. Resign almost immediately on medical grounds. Kamala Harris immediately becomes President Democrat win 1. Fight the election as the incumbent democrat win 2. I am sorry but Biden is done.

He stopped Trump in 2020 and has done great work and should go out on a high with a level of public service that would put most UK MPs to shame but if he doesn't he has no legacy and it wont be reflected well in the history books. Really can't understand whose around him that can't see this.

 

[brad465]

There's his get out clause. Let everyone say 'thank you, God', if that's what wanted, but too little, too late.
,

Trump on the phone to wish him well and recommend injecting bleach.

 

[Busaholic]

Trump on the phone to wish him well and recommend injecting bleach.

Don't you just swallow it?

 

[AlterEgo]

Biden reported to have said he'd consider withdrawing if a medical condition emerged, in what looks like a climbdown from his "Only The Lord Almighty can make me step down". Reading between the lines I wonder if this is potentially setting up his withdrawal, where he could cite a change in circumstances:

Joe Biden tests positive for Covid; Chuck Schumer says report he told president to quit race is ‘idle speculation’ – as it happened

White House says president has mild symptoms after he was forced to cancel Las Vegas speech; spokesperson says Schumer made caucus views known directly to president

www.theguardian.com

​

It does look like he is being prepared for a moderately graceful exit. Only a new candidate could beat Trump, imo.

More noise about this in the Telegraph and on Twitter this morning.

 

[nw1]

He stopped Trump in 2020 and has done great work and should go out on a high with a level of public service that would put most UK MPs to shame but if he doesn't he has no legacy and it wont be reflected well in the history books. Really can't understand whose around him that can't see this.

I would concur with others that Biden really has to step aside now. He wasn't a bad president but he isn't really up to the job now.

 

[Bantamzen]

Indeed, can you imagine the delight at Trump Campaign HQ if Biden has to go off the road for a couple of weeks due to covid, whereas their candidate got shot at and carried on. That would literally give them campaign material right up to the election. It really, really, really is time for Biden to smell the coffee and give his successor plenty of time to build momentum.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Indeed, can you imagine the delight at Trump Campaign HQ if Biden has to go off the road for a couple of weeks due to covid, whereas their candidate got shot at and carried on. That would literally give them campaign material right up to the election. It really, really, really is time for Biden to smell the coffee and give his successor plenty of time to build momentum.

Absolutely this +1 from me.

 

[Dent]

Biden reported to have said he'd consider withdrawing if a medical condition emerged, in what looks like a climbdown from his "Only The Lord Almighty can make me step down".

That wouldn't be a climbdown, by his own reasoning a medical condition emerging would constitute "The Lord Almighty" making him step down so would be entirely consistent with his previous claim.

 

[AlterEgo]

If he steps down as a candidate due to ill health he surely also has to step down as President, no?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

If he steps down as a candidate due to ill health he surely also has to step down as President, no?

Correct. Harris automatically becomes president. Win for Democrats and Biden legacy. She then runs as an incumbent president giving the Democrats a major boost. It really is the best of options imho at the moment.