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TFW removing off peak day returns

Watershed

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The latest figures from TfW might give a further clue as to why they are doing this:

Welsh rail ridership and revenue surge, but staff costs outweigh farebox income
Transport for Wales has reported growing revenue and ridership across its rail operations in 2025-26 ...
The Welsh government’s transport agency reported on July 30 that rail revenues had increased by 8.9% compared to 2024-25, reaching £190.3m. Customer satisfaction with TfW Rail services reached 87.7%, up 3.3 percentage points on the prior year, while 34.9 million passenger-journeys had been recorded, an increase of 9.9%.

The fact that journeys have increased by more than revenue suggests that growth is focused on shorter distance journeys and/or that split ticketing is becoming increasingly prevalent. So they are possibly trying to counteract that by increasing the yield on medium distance journeys.

That being said, it just seems totally contradictory to be raising fares like this on the one hand, and simultaneously offer huge fare cuts with the rollout of PAYG across the southeast and northeast of Wales.

For example Chester to Rhyl will go from costing £20.20 for a day trip or £22.70 for a period return, to £4.30 for a single, i.e. £8.60 for a return journey (whether same day or not). A weekly season will go from costing £75.70 to £27.70.

Arguably the new PAYG fares are much more in line with what rail travel should cost - but it's hardly going to help with their subsidy or overcrowding problems when they are cutting the fare by that much.
 
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Dr Day

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It would be interesting to see the figures for all travel in Wales (across all operators) and the relevant Borders flows ie how much is generative and how much is abstractive.

And another case study to test price elasticity- if you drop the fare how much do you grow the market (or your share of the market).
 

markymark2000

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Some interesting figures which people may find useful.

A Chester to Shrewsbury, undiscounted off peak day return has risen significantly in price over the past few years, and with this change it's set to rise again it seems.

April 2024 - £13.20
June 2024 - £13.90 (up 5.1%)
March 2025 - £14.80 (up 6.3%)
June 2025 - £15.70 (up 5.9%)
and now if the off peak day return goes, it's going to jump up to £17.70 (up 10.8%).

In 2 years and 4 months, this fare flow has jumped 28%. Feels like someone has been mistakenly using Freddoflation rather than RPI/CPI inflation metrics to set the fare hikes.


Figures for April and June 2024 and March 2025 were from BRFares at the time, and I still have them recorded from an email. The £14.80 fare is still available in the BR fares backlog though if you check for the April-June fares period. June 2025 and new fare details are available still on BR fares if you change the fares period https://www.brfares.com/!fares?orig=CTR&dest=SHR.
 

positron

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18 Oct 2022
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Cardiff
That increase is going to feel especially unfair when in the near future if you're one stop closer to Chester, Gobowen, you'll be in the PAYG system and probably get a substantially cheaper fare.
 

CyrusWuff

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Joined
20 May 2013
Messages
5,455
Location
London
Some interesting figures which people may find useful.

A Chester to Shrewsbury, undiscounted off peak day return has risen significantly in price over the past few years, and with this change it's set to rise again it seems.

April 2024 - £13.20
June 2024 - £13.90 (up 5.1%)
March 2025 - £14.80 (up 6.3%)
June 2025 - £15.70 (up 5.9%)
and now if the off peak day return goes, it's going to jump up to £17.70 (up 10.8%).

In 2 years and 4 months, this fare flow has jumped 28%. Feels like someone has been mistakenly using Freddoflation rather than RPI/CPI inflation metrics to set the fare hikes.
Off-Peak Day Returns aren't a regulated fare, so Train Companies can increase them by any amount they want.

Hence GWR increasing their Off-Peak tickets in the London & Thames Valley area at all three fare change dates in 2025.
 

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