Hello all - was all a bit busy yesterday so had to catch up on the various posts. I've read them but won't get into cropping individual quotes etc from them. There's some fine and well argued points on both sides.
From my perspective, these are some of the central points:
- I don't believe that the current system is some fantastic, market forces led, utopia - far from it
- That a different approach can be explored
- The proposals that are laid out, however, don't address the central issues around public transport usage (and specifically bus usage)
The proposals are supposed to provide a London style network but they don't. The funding to achieve that just isn't there. Cutting a bit of operators margin is not going to liberate that much. Taking Stagecoach as the main example, reducing their margin from 2018/9 levels to something akin to a regulated industry standard (looking not just at London but globally) would benefit the coffers by about £6m. Look at the other main operators (Go NW, Diamond, First, Transdev) and there's probably not much extra to be gleaned. The costs of running such a framework will certainly eat into that pretty quickly.
The other suggestion is that the real savings will come from removing wasteful competition. However, is that really actually happening. Aside from Oxford Road and the odd spat between Diamond and Vision, there is actually very little in terms on on-road competition between operators to be rationalised away; the network has found its level where operators run what they have to in order to obtain the returns and move passengers.
Of course, this ignores the issue of competition between public transport modes. Again, how much of that actually happens. As someone who used to live in Trafford, I remember the services that used to dominate Washway Road. They are a shadow of what they were since Metrolink was introduced. We can see the same in Oldham to Manchester. There's been massive transference of passengers from bus to Metrolink, and what were parallel bus services have declined accordingly; that explains much of the ridership decline across GM.
Hence why I have concerns that removal of direct links won't be because there is duplication but instead a dogmatic approach to coerce people onto trams whether it is convenient on not. Taking the 263 (on my aforementioned Washway Road corridor), that would seem to duplicate the Metrolink. However, I doubt anyone is actually taking it from Altrincham to Manchester. The reason it exists is that it not only serves areas that are not served by other means but also service a series of overlapping journey options and passenger flows. I don't know if the research has been done but I wonder how much of the traffic that it has into Manchester city centre is gleaned from the section north of Stretford, where the service serves Hulme and leaves the parallel Metrolink?
Another aspect mentioned has been to mention feeder bus services into the Metrolink. Well, that could be done now. In Altrincham, there's a piecemeal collection of local hourly buses that are run, I think under tender. That could be increased now - nothing to stop that happening except for the funding. The fact is that a London style network comes with a London type price tag, and that's not being addressed.
Nor is the focus on a car based transport network. Whilst some bus priority exists, much of it is poor in design (a personal gripe of
@Bletchleyite and rightly so). It's not even a patch on Leeds! Again, these proposals don't face into the issue of burgeoning car use because no politician is prepared to do anything to upset the private car motorist. There are still roadside parking spaces on major roads in the city centre - not side streets but main routes. Of course, this is because of how fundamental car parking charges are as a source of revenue as well as the fear of a backlash from motoring groups and the general public. God forbid that a congestion charge or an emissions charge would be considered.
Instead, we have a populist approach to hammer the evil bus companies but it doesn't matter if the bus is publicly controlled or painted yellow if it's still stuck in the same congestion as now.
I don't think the current situation is perfect. There are changes needed and we've seen in places like Bristol, Brighton, Nottingham and Reading that it can be done (and even those could be better) and it's not because dependent on ownership model or concerns about competition law. It's about making public transport attractive vs. the private car and levelling the playing field. These proposals don't address the fundamentals - it's eye catching politics but without the money, I fear we will see services being disconnected/cut on a dogmatic "you must change" basis and cross subsidy so you have remaining services disadvantaged to prop up a wealth of socially necessary basket cases rather than a true view of public transport being a means of mass transit.