Syria - what happens next?

[rapmastaj]

The scenes of prisoners being freed after decades trapped in cells that are basically dungeons are quite incredible. From what I've heard, there were prisoners locked in spaces that didn't even have doors - the people breaking open the prison could hear them shouting and had to essentially dig them out.

A friend of mine has a Syrian brother-in-law, whose father was disappeared by the regime decades ago. They all assumed he was long dead, but are now wondering whether he might still be alive after all.

There are all sorts of ways in which the situation could turn nasty (and has in part already begun to). Foreign powers like Israel and Turkey using the opportunity to pursue their own agenda and conduct military raids while they can get away it is utterly shameless and won't exactly promote sympathy with their cause. The threats by some European politicians to immediately start deporting Syrian refugees since the country is now 'safe' are pretty shameless too. And of course there's no knowing how the eventual political situation will end up - e.g. perhaps strict Islamists will take control, or conflict between the various rebel groups will intensify. But that said, the sudden downfall of the Assad regime is still a cause for genuine celebration.

 

[3141]

I am pessimistic about what will happen. If we think back to the "Arab Spring" of 2010-12, several authoritarian regimes, some of them very nasty, were forced out of office, and people expressed hopes about more liberal and democratic successors, but most (maybe all) have now been replaced by other authoritarian rulers. One important reason for this is the absence of any tradition of liberal or democratic institutions in those countries. Most people expect governments to be authoritarian and intolerant. Most rulers, having gained power, do not intend to give it up.

An illustration of that can be seen in Southern Africa, but there are many others. When Zambia's President Lungu was voted out in 2021 (Zambia being one of very few African nations with democratic institutions), there were hopes in neighbouring Zimbabwe that a similar change might happen there. The fall of Robert Mugabe in 2017 had been a coup d'etat which brought President Mnangagwa to power. But Mnangagwa stated "What happened in Zambia isn't going to happen here."

In Syria, there are understandably very strong feelings of enmity towards the Assad regime. Few people will be happy with the thought of Assad's broader family, and those who supported him, being free to organise politically and possibly make a comeback. There are various strong ideologies which play a part, which we are not familiar with in Great Britain, though they can be seen in Ireland. Similarly there are tribal loyalties and divisions which hardly exist here. Many people are ready to resort to arms in order to advance their viewpoint.

Perhaps, as others have suggested, Syria may break up into smaller units based on ideology or tribe. Some groups may feel safer with their own smaller "nation". Those probably won't be democratic either.

 

[rapmastaj]

I am pessimistic about what will happen. If we think back to the "Arab Spring" of 2010-12, several authoritarian regimes, some of them very nasty, were forced out of office, and people expressed hopes about more liberal and democratic successors, but most (maybe all) have now been replaced by other authoritarian rulers. One important reason for this is the absence of any tradition of liberal or democratic institutions in those countries. Most people expect governments to be authoritarian and intolerant. Most rulers, having gained power, do not intend to give it up.

An illustration of that can be seen in Southern Africa, but there are many others. When Zambia's President Lungu was voted out in 2021 (Zambia being one of very few African nations with democratic institutions), there were hopes in neighbouring Zimbabwe that a similar change might happen there. The fall of Robert Mugabe in 2017 had been a coup d'etat which brought President Mnangagwa to power. But Mnangagwa stated "What happened in Zambia isn't going to happen here."

In Syria, there are understandably very strong feelings of enmity towards the Assad regime. Few people will be happy with the thought of Assad's broader family, and those who supported him, being free to organise politically and possibly make a comeback. There are various strong ideologies which play a part, which we are not familiar with in Great Britain, though they can be seen in Ireland. Similarly there are tribal loyalties and divisions which hardly exist here. Many people are ready to resort to arms in order to advance their viewpoint.

Perhaps, as others have suggested, Syria may break up into smaller units based on ideology or tribe. Some groups may feel safer with their own smaller "nation". Those probably won't be democratic either.

Fair enough, democracy doesn't appear overnight and violence is so endemic in the Middle East that it'll have a strong entropic pull.

But I wouldn't say there's no tradition of democracy in Syria. The rebel groups have varied greatly in their approach. The Kurdish-led SDF in the northeast (sometimes known as Rojava) have quite unique politics, along the lines of democratic confederalism, influenced by Abdullah Ocalan and the anarchist thinker Murray Bookchin. It's very different from Western liberal democracy but has featured direct democracy, autonomy, and women playing a leading role (including as fighters against ISIS).

They also have their problems of course, and might anyway be frozen out by the Arab-led HTS. But the original Arab Spring protests were a clear sign of the powerful urge for democratic change among a good portion of the population. It still feels too early to say how things will pan out in the end.