Syria - what happens next?

[brad465]

Having got threads on Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, the international news of the last week has been dominated by the rapid unravelling of Assad's regime in Syria, after a 4-year frozen conflict came to an end. Both Homs and Damascus are being threatened at the time of posting, and I wouldn't be surprised if a Kabul-style collapse occurs this weekend. Assad has reportedly already fled the country.

The main force at play here has been the HTS-led rebels, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda who have claimed to have moderated their positions and won over support from other groups, with Turkey having some enabling involvement as well. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have also made some gains further east, while other rebels are taking over in the south, which are the ones now threatening the capital. At the moment all these groups are united in Assad being a common enemy, however what happens once he's gone (as looks inevitable at this point) could be interesting.

This collapse is also a major setback for Russia and Iran: Russia are abandoning their Mediterranean ports and are having to spend military resources trying to save the regime, which has been made harder by events in Ukraine. Likewise, Iran's proxies being weakened by Israel has in combination with Russian weakness given the rebels the best opportunity to strike, which is so far paying off very well for them. Russian and Iranian regimes are also relatively weak at home, losing Syria like this could spell trouble at home. Even if their regimes don't fall in a domino effect, this weakens Russia's hand in negotiations with Ukraine.

What happens next is anyone's guess, but I suspect there will be an initial period of relief and respite with Assad's downfall, before it all kicks off again as the remaining factions jostle for dominance. I don't see the Russian and Iranian regimes falling, but it's another domino falling in that direction.

Assad is in Moscow after fleeing Syria and will be given asylum, Russian state media report

Russia was a key ally of Assad's regime - the former president and his family will now reportedly get asylum there.

www.bbc.co.uk

What's the latest?

If you're just joining us, here's what you need to know:

• Syrian rebel groups are closing in on the capital city Damascus, from the north and south
• The office of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is denying that he has fled the capital
• Video footage show protesters tearing down a statue of al-Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, in a suburb of Damascus
• An unnamed US official tells our US partner CBS that Damascus is "falling suburb by suburb to the rebels"
• Syria's interior minister says, though, that there is a "very strong military cordon" around Damascus and claims no one will be able to get through it
• Meanwhile, the Israeli military says it is assisting UN forces under attack in Syria to "repel the attack"

 

[edwin_m]

Not being an expert, but it seems to me that the different rebel groups are established in different areas of the country. Perhaps it's time to abandon the idea of a single country (which was only a creation of colonials with the early 20th century equivalent of crayons) and hope for a number of smaller states, each relatively homogeneous, that can co-exist in some sort of harmony?

 

[Bevan Price]

There are various possibilities for the Syrian people

1. The rebels - if they win - really have moved away from their extremist origins, and things will start to improve, albeit slowly.

2. Out of the frying pan into the fire.

3. If Assad wins, a lot of people will suffer even more than they do now.

 

[brad465]

Rebels now saying they have complete control of Homs. If true that essentially cuts off the coast from the capital:

Assad is in Moscow after fleeing Syria and will be given asylum, Russian state media report

Russia was a key ally of Assad's regime - the former president and his family will now reportedly get asylum there.

www.bbc.co.uk

Syrian rebels say they have taken full control of Homs
​

Syrian rebel commander Hassan Abdul Ghani says that insurgent forces have "fully liberated" Syria's central city of Homs.

Syria's Islamist rebel leader Golani says it is a "historic moment" and calls on his fighters not to harm "those who drop their arms".

 

[philosopher]

There are various possibilities for the Syrian people

1. The rebels - if they win - really have moved away from their extremist origins, and things will start to improve, albeit slowly.

2. Out of the frying pan into the fire.

3. If Assad wins, a lot of people will suffer even more than they do now.

Best case, Syria becomes a reasonably liberal democratic society and the sudden fall of Assad inspires uprisings again Putin and the current Iranian regime, leading to regime change in both these countries. A new Russian government negotiates an end to the Russia Ukraine war with Ukraine regaining most of its lost territory. This scenario however I acknowledge is almost certainly not going to happen and is perhaps bordering onto the realm of fantasy.

Worst case, the Syrian rebels start fighting amongst themselves, leading to the prolongation of the Syrian Civil war. The more extreme elements HTS win this conflict and turns Syria into an Islamist autocratic state. This scenario unfortunately seems far more likely.

 

[zero]

Not being an expert, but it seems to me that the different rebel groups are established in different areas of the country. Perhaps it's time to abandon the idea of a single country (which was only a creation of colonials with the early 20th century equivalent of crayons) and hope for a number of smaller states, each relatively homogeneous, that can co-exist in some sort of harmony?

Then the Kurds in Turkey and Iraq will ask (again) why they can't have their own smaller country too, as will various other marginalised nationalities. In theory I support redrawing borders and making new states if that's what the people who live there want, but this is also what Putin has claimed to be doing in eastern Ukraine / Crimea since 2014.

 

[DarloRich]

Fracture and further fighting between Islamist groups ( re badged ISIS) Turks, Kurds, Iran and Russia

 

[brad465]

There is speculation that Assad was on board a plane that took off from the outskirts of Damascus, that then disappeared off the radar after an odd u-turn near Homs. Some think the plane may have crashed, or was captured. Whether it's true or not remains to be seen, but certainly something to keep an eye on:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

ASSAD WHEREABOUTS UNKNOWN​

A Syrian Air plane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels, according to data from the Flightradar website.
The aircraft initially flew towards Syria's coastal region, a stronghold of Assad's Alawite sect, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.
Reuters could not immediately ascertain who was on board.
Two Syrian sources said there was a very high probability that Assad may have been killed in a plane crash as it was a mystery why the plane took a surprise U turn and disappeared off the map according to data from the Flightradar website.
As Syrians expressed joy, Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali called for free elections so Syrians can choose who they want.
But that would require a smooth transition in a country with complex competing interests, from Islamists to groups with links to the United States, Russia and Turkey.
Syrian rebels, for example, said they have started an attack on U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces in the northern Syrian town of Manbij, according to a statement posted on Sunday but dated Dec. 7 (Saturday) on X by the Ministry of Defense of the Syrian Interim Government.
Jalali also said he had been in contact with rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani to discuss managing the transitional period, marking a notable development in efforts to shape Syria's political future.
Syria's civil war, which erupted in 2011 as an uprising against Assad's rule, dragged in big outside powers, created space for jihadist militants to plot attacks around the world and sent millions of refugees into neighbouring states.
The frontlines of Syria's complex civil war were dormant for years. Then Islamists once affiliated with Al Qaeda suddenly burst into action, posing the biggest threat to Assad.
Israel, which has severely weakened the Iran-backed groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, will likely celebrate the fall of Assad, another of Iran's key regional allies. But the prospects of an Islamist group ruling Syria will likely raise concerns.
"Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer," U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump posted on X.
"Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success."

 

[DarloRich]

Best case, Syria becomes a reasonably liberal democratic society and the sudden fall of Assad inspires uprisings again Putin and the current Iranian regime, leading to regime change in both these countries. A new Russian government negotiates an end to the Russia Ukraine war with Ukraine regaining most of its lost territory. This scenario however I acknowledge is almost certainly not going to happen and is perhaps bordering onto the realm of fantasy.

The forces that have ousted Assad are not part of some democratic uprising of the people. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are a Sunni Islamist group dedicated to the formation of an islamic state

 

[Egg Centric]

Can't see how this is anything other than one group of evil people being replaced by another group of evil people. Let's just hope we're lucky and whichever thug rises to the top cares more about self aggrandisement than some medieval ideology; the former are easier to work with and (if unopposed) less genoicedy.

 

[GusB]

Assad is reported to be in Russia, according to the BBC.

Assad is in Moscow after fleeing Syria and will be given asylum, Russian state media report

Russia was a key ally of Assad's regime - the former president and his family will now reportedly get asylum there.

www.bbc.co.uk

Deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, Russian state media agencies report, citing sources in the Kremlin.

Reports also say that Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Russia.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the information.

 

[brad465]

Assad is reported to be in Russia, according to the BBC.

Assad is in Moscow after fleeing Syria and will be given asylum, Russian state media report

Russia was a key ally of Assad's regime - the former president and his family will now reportedly get asylum there.

www.bbc.co.uk

He would be wise to stay in a bungalow, not drink tea and open his front door in a hazmat suit from now on.

 

[Gloster]

It all depends on who is the most ruthless. I fear that for the Syrians it is going to be the same as Iran in 1979: a brief explosion of joy followed by a crackdown by hardline fundamentalist, probably with a bit of post-Saddam Iraq-style chaos thrown in. Of course, we don’t know what Putin is going to do, nor can we be sure what The West will do because Biden will probably keep out of it and Trump…well, what will he do? Most likely it will be a case of keeping well clear.

 

[Russel]

nor can we be sure what The West will do because Biden will probably keep out of it and Trump…well, what will he do? Most likely it will be a case of keeping well clear.

It would make for a refreshing change, if we do manage to keep well clear of someone else's war and not act like the worlds police force.

 

[Egg Centric]

I just read of the release of Raghad al-Tatary.

He'd been in prison 43 years.

His "crime"? He was a fighter pilot who refused to bomb Hama in the 1980s during an earlier uprising.

While I still assume this is going to end extremely badly, the positive effects of individual stories like that are just truly stunning and certainly so far things are looking on the up.

 

[DarloRich]

Of course, we don’t know what Putin is going to do

Does he want to keep his air and naval base that gives access to the Mediterranean?

While I still assume this is going to end extremely badly,

it is absolutely going to end badly.

 

[Yew]

It would make for a refreshing change, if we do manage to keep well clear of someone else's war and not act like the worlds police force.

A change, maybe, but not necessarily a good one. The pull out from Afghanistan was disastrous and had extreme negative effects for the women who live there.

 

[zero]

A change, maybe, but not necessarily a good one. The pull out from Afghanistan was disastrous and had extreme negative effects for the women who live there.

Agreed and I personally think this was also a factor in Putin's decision to fully invade Ukraine.

 

[edwin_m]

Russia may try to seek some kind of accommodation with whoever ends up running Syria, that as long as they get to keep their bases they won't interfere. It's probably unrealistic for them to do so at present anyway with their commitment in Ukraine, but nothing to stop them going back on their promises when that eventually winds up...

 

[hi2u_uk]

I think i have watched and listened to a few new programmes about the fall of asad in syria. What makes me sad is that they always end up finding a Syrian in the UK and then asking them are they going to return to Syria now despite the person having lived in the UK for over a decade. I'm not sure if i feel thats an approriate question

 

[DarloRich]

I'm not sure if i feel thats an approriate question

why not? Surely it is fair to ask someone who has fled thier country if they feel it is safe to return. Will that not help gauge thoughts on the new regime?

 

[GusB]

I think i have watched and listened to a few new programmes about the fall of asad in syria. What makes me sad is that they always end up finding a Syrian in the UK and then asking them are they going to return to Syria now despite the person having lived in the UK for over a decade. I'm not sure if i feel thats an approriate question

why not? Surely it is fair to ask someone who has fled thier country if they feel it is safe to return. Will that not help gauge thoughts on the new regime?

It's perfectly valid to ask Syrian refugees if they would wish to return home, and I'd imagine that there are many who would dearly love to go back to their homeland, but it's perhaps a little bit premature to do so.

I find this quite concerning:

Syrian asylum seekers in limbo as countries halt applications

Austria, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Greece have all said they will suspend asylum decisions for now.

www.bbc.co.uk

A number of European countries, including the UK, have suspended the processing of asylum applications for Syrians, after the downfall of former president Bashar al-Assad.

Austria's caretaker government has stopped all asylum claims from Syrians and says it is making plans to repatriate or deport people back to their homeland, arguing that the situation in the country has changed fundamentally.

Germany (home to a million Syrians), the United Kingdom, France, and Greece have all said they will halt asylum decisions for now.

The moves potentially leave thousands of Syrians in limbo, following the collapse of the Assad regime after 50 years of brutal rule.

Syria hasn't suddenly become a safe country overnight and I fear that there's a lot more strife to come. I certainly wouldn't want to return to a country where Hayat Tahrir-al Shams has just taken power.

It's worrying for those refugees who are still awaiting asylum decisions, but what about the people who have been granted asylum here and have settled into new lives? My worry is that the more extreme right element of our own population will use this as an opportunity to cause trouble.

 

[Howardh]

Before asking Syrians here to return, it's probably prudent to give the current situation at least six months to settle down. Any Syrians here working in key industries (eg NHS/Education) we would probably want to stay; but to dangle a carrot I reckon the government should then offer (say) £5000 to any refugee to return home, which would cover their flight, immediate accommodation etc. Probably cheaper in the long run than keeping them here on whatever welfare they are on?

If they are genuine refugees and the situation "at home" has improved considerably, they should be willing to return, however it's gonna be difficult to convince those settled with jobs, housing etc to discard all that and go "home" with uncertainty of what awaits.

Tough call for the government!

 

[brad465]

I know Israel has some security concerns, but I do think just opportunistically striking military assets and occupying a UN buffer zone before a new government properly forms isn't a sensible reaction. It's triggered condemnation from other nations in the region and risks fuelling the sort of instability that plagued Libya and Iraq which we don't want to see a repeat of. IMO they should have gone to the negotiating table to discuss the neutralising/removal of chemical weapons and other military sites/kit in a diplomatic manner, then if this failed, maybe then striking something could have gained justification:

Syria: Israel confirms attack on naval fleet in Latakia

The BBC has verified videos showing blasts in the Syrian port of Latakia, as Israel conducts strikes across Syria.

bbc.co.uk

Israel has confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet, as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime.
In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its ships struck the ports at Al-Bayda and Latakia on Monday night, where 15 vessels were docked.
The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.
The IDF also said its warplanes had conducted more than 350 air strikes on targets across Syria, while moving ground forces into the demilitarised buffer zone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights.
Earlier, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said it had documented more than 310 strikes by the IDF since the Syrian government was overthrown by rebels on Sunday.
In a statement, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF was aiming to "destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel".
He added that the operation to destroy the Syrian fleet had been a "great success".
The IDF said a wide range of targets had been struck - including airfields, military vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons and arms production sites - in the Syrian capital, Damascus, as well as Homs, Tartus and Palmyra.
It also targeted weapon warehouses, ammunition depots and "dozens" of sea-to-sea missiles.
It added that it had done so to prevent them "from falling into the hands of extremists".
In a video message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Syrian rebel group that ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), that Israel would "respond forcefully" if they allow Iran to "re-establish itself in Syria".
He has previously expressed a desire for peaceful ties with the new Syrian government, and cast its interventions as defensive.
Rami Abdul Rahman, the founder of the SOHR, described the impact of the strikes as destroying "all the capabilities of the Syrian army" and said that "Syrian lands are being violated".
Meanwhile, the IDF also confirmed it had troops operating in Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone bordering the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The IDF acknowledged that its troops had entered Syrian territory but told the BBC that reports of tanks approaching Damascus were "false".
It said some troops had been stationed within the Area of Separation that borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights "and then a few additional points".
"When we say a few additional points, we're talking the area of the Area of Separation, or the area of the buffer zone in vicinity," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told the BBC.
BBC Verify has geolocated an image of an IDF soldier standing just over half a kilometre beyond the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, inside Syria on a hillside near the village of Kwdana.
On Monday, the Israeli military released photos of its troops who crossed from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into the demilitarised buffer zone in Syria where UN peacekeepers are based.

 

[zero]

Israel is just doing what it wants, as they know nobody is going to stop them / before anyone has a chance to stop them. Same as in Gaza I guess

When I worked in the UK I had several Syrian refugees as colleagues. They always talked about going back, but I think it's easy to say you want to go back when the possibility seems so remote.

Even if the new government ends up being reasonably ok, I expect most of them will prefer to finish their working lives in the UK and then go home in their retirement (these guys were well-educated professionals - it would definitely be a different scenario for those without qualifications or stable careers)

 

[GusB]

Israel is just doing what it wants, as they know nobody is going to stop them / before anyone has a chance to stop them. Same as in Gaza I guess

Usual story. Some countries get away with annexing land because it is written in a centuries-old book that has nothing to do with modern life and the zealots who follow that ancient book think they have a god-given right to absolutely everything.

Russia takes over parts of Ukraine and we all throw our hands in the air and declare that it's unacceptable; Israel does the same and it's suddenly all in the name of self-defence and every poodle nation in the world rushes to defend its right to "self-defence".

What happens when the well-educated Syrian population suddenly realises that the new regime isn't quite as cuddly as it initially appeared to be?

 

[Yew]

and the situation "at home" has improved considerably

It certainly seems that, at the moment, that is too early to call.

 

[DustyBin]

I know Israel has some security concerns, but I do think just opportunistically striking military assets and occupying a UN buffer zone before a new government properly forms isn't a sensible reaction. It's triggered condemnation from other nations in the region and risks fuelling the sort of instability that plagued Libya and Iraq which we don't want to see a repeat of. IMO they should have gone to the negotiating table to discuss the neutralising/removal of chemical weapons and other military sites/kit in a diplomatic manner, then if this failed, maybe then striking something could have gained justification:

Syria: Israel confirms attack on naval fleet in Latakia

The BBC has verified videos showing blasts in the Syrian port of Latakia, as Israel conducts strikes across Syria.

bbc.co.uk

I’m struggling to see how anyone could deem the destruction of chemical weapons a bad thing; attacking airfields and naval bases is possibly more questionable (but probably makes sense to Israel). Any kind of land grab or long term occupation is completely unacceptable however.

Israel is just doing what it wants, as they know nobody is going to stop them / before anyone has a chance to stop them. Same as in Gaza I guess

When I worked in the UK I had several Syrian refugees as colleagues. They always talked about going back, but I think it's easy to say you want to go back when the possibility seems so remote.

Even if the new government ends up being reasonably ok, I expect most of them will prefer to finish their working lives in the UK and then go home in their retirement (these guys were well-educated professionals - it would definitely be a different scenario for those without qualifications or stable careers)

I don’t think I know any Syrians, but I do know a few Iranians, at least some of whom have stated they’d like to return home one day. They’ve been here for well over twenty years in some cases, so I always find it quite surprising. It’s also quite sad that these people have spent so much time effectively displaced, despite having good lives in the UK.

It certainly seems that, at the moment, that is too early to call.

Very much so I think.

 

[DC1989]

Haven't Turkey invaded northern Syria to fight the Kurds too? I've not seen much said about that

 

[DustyBin]

Haven't Turkey invaded northern Syria to fight the Kurds too? I've not seen much said about that

They’ve been there since 2016 (IIRC). There have been air strikes in the last few days, but I’m not sure there’s been a ground offensive?