The key findings of the survey are as follows:
The overall weighted irregularity rate is estimated at 3.2%.
Low and High Case estimates of the overall irregularity rate are 2.7% and 5.5%
respectively.
Using a 2014/15 revenue bas
e, an estimated £24.6m of revenue is “at risk” due to
ticketless travel, which represents 2.6% of in-scope franchise revenue in that year.
Ticketless travel is most prevalent in the post-peak evening period (after 7pm) on
weekdays, with an irregularity rate of 5.1%. However, revenue at risk in absolute terms is relatively low in that period due to peak periods having higher underlying revenue. The highest revenue at risk is in the evening peak with an estimated £7.7m of revenue lost annually (2014/15 prices) driven by high revenue and a ticketless travel rate of 3.5%. Despite a low irregularity rate (2.6%), morning peak revenue at risk is also relatively high at £5.6m per year.
Ticketless travel rates by geographic service segment vary significantly, between 1.5% (London Waterloo to Bournemouth/Weymouth) and 4.6% (London Waterloo to Shepperton/Kingston).
Revenue at risk is highest on the London Waterloo to Reading and Windsor services (Windsor Outers) at £5.3m per year (2014/15 prices) due to a combination of high underlying revenue and a ticketless travel rate of 4.5%.
In general, longer-distance and non-London service segments show lower irregularity rates than those dominated by short-distance flows to and from London, with the exception of London Waterloo to Portsmouth, which has the third-highest irregularity rate.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...swf-ticketless-travel-survey-final-report.pdf
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