Does SWR even have a rolling stock shortage ?
Did some crunching of ORR data Jan-Mar and compared it to 5 years ago (2019) pre pandemic
table 1243 : train km in 2019 was 9.9m, 2024 is 8.5m (down 14.1%)
table 1253 : vehicle km 2019 was 74.37m, 2024 is 62.47m (down 16%)
so trains have been shortened from average 7.51 carriages to 7.35
On passenger side
table 1223 : journeys, in 2019 was 55.1m 2024 is 38.7m (down 29.7%)
table 1233 : journey km, in 2019 was 1495m, 2024 is 1276m (down 24.6%)
average journey length was 27.15km, 2024 is 29.12km, so passengers travelling 7% further than 2019
Clearly if passenger km down 24.6% but train km is only down 16% (compared to 5 years ago) then could argue not shortage of stock. Alternatively could say if there is a shortage now, then there was bigger shortage 5 years ago.
On other hand if journey length has grown 7% could they need more trains suitable for longer journeys, and fewer short distance stock.
(all data from ORR spreadsheets, for SWR)