Not unless there are calls for increased frequencies in the future, in which case additional rolling stock will be required. I seriously doubt SWR would get away with the current timetable, but the question is, when will there be a time that frequencies will increase? If it comes in a few years, then SWR would only shoot themselves in the foot for scrapping rolling stock once again.
SWR is barely getting away with the current timetable now and what was really needed was implementation of the proposed Dec 2022 timetable.
Not to mention traction knowledge for crew.
All very well in a growing market, but where there is decline, ditching the non-standard stock is an obvious step. As has been pointed out, there is a huge surplus of 701s on order, because they were specified against very different passenger expectations.
By the time the 701s are all in service it is going to be at least two years or so - i.e. end of 2024/start of 2025. The Section 54 agreement on the 444s and 450s ends at that point and they will be more expensive to lease than the 458s. If anything is to leave the fleet (other than what is already planned) I would suggest it is going to be either 701s (to SouthEastern as part of Networker replacement) or 450s.
That is an interesting theory. Why are they only converting 28 of the 458s if there is the possibility of taking some 450s (or indeed 444s) out of the franchise?
I believe it’s 28 because in 12 car form it’s broadly equivalent in capacity to the originally planned 18 x 442. But that may not be what they really need now. But I also think the odds of any 444/450 going off lease are vanishingly small.
I would have to agree with your comment. Withdrawing the class 455 units, once the class 701 units have started in passenger service I think would in the short term be the case rather than being rid of the class 458 units.
I would say the same. They are the mainstay of the fleet, and the thought of taking them off lease after years of reliable service and a recent refurbishment, just to be replaced by the troublesome 458s seems ludicrous. I can't see anyone wanting to lease them other than SWR either.
To be fair 122/127 doesn't leave many spare, 96% availability is very high.
They have an option on the remaining 8 458s - as part of the announcement about the 28 sets for the Portsmouth line it was stated that the remaining sets would be stored by Porterbrook as an option should SWR need it.
As was the contract between SWT and Siemens prior to 2017. This matched the long standing 95% availability, which even in my time (400 days) was the general rule. However on the 450 front this was generally pegged back to 118/127 (93%), without detriment to the peak train plan, on a booked diagram basis, as during those times numerous modification initiatives (eg: 450/5 conversion), and in some cases other issues, such as fallen tree damage (444037) were easily overcome with the additional buffer of individual 450 diagrams 119 & 120 being available to cover short falls, without interfering with the planned maintenance, cleaning etc, etc, that the seven units (diagrams 121-127) were required for under the contract.
I live in Farnham and would say that 10-701s would be very suitable as a replacement for any of the current services not diagrammed as 12-450, as these can be very busy indeed. I would miss the use of seatback tables, but this is compensated with the mini tables on the bays, which 450s currently lack. 10-701 would be a good increase in capacity on 8-450 (and 5-444)
This would work by replacing the current 8 carriage 450 and 5 carriage 444s formations on the Alton - Waterloo - Basingstoke (semi) - Waterloo - Alton circuit with 10 carriage 701s, and then cascading the Desiros to the Portsmouth route.
I wonder if anyone on this forum ever considers that there are contracts in place that might stop “fantasy fleets” happening?
They probably would have all expired once the 701s are all in service.I wonder if anyone on this forum ever considers that there are contracts in place that might stop “fantasy fleets” happening?
Ha! Good point. Do the 701s exist or are they just a mirage - we just think we see them.
Thank goodness we have a dedicated subforum for this very purpose!I wonder if anyone on this forum ever considers that there are contracts in place that might stop “fantasy fleets” happening?
Didn't stop the 442s going for scrap part-way through the retractioning contract.I wonder if anyone on this forum ever considers that there are contracts in place that might stop “fantasy fleets” happening?
Yes, but I suspect that given the age of the vehicles and the complications of the retractioning exercise, that Angel and SWR would have settled.
