Bear in mind that the electric trains that are proposed are longer than the diesels that currently work west of Bridgend. 153s, Pacers, Sprinters, and some 3-car 175s, as against 4-car 315s. That's going to tilt the ORCATS shares on stations west of Cardiff significantly. A rough calculation suggests FGW run 16cph between Cardiff and Swansea (one HST each way), while for ATW this is perhaps 7cph. With the longer EMUs, this goes up to 12 on the current frequency, and with an hourly Swanline that could be 16. If it works the way I think it might work, the potential hit at Swansea from the Western operator not operating more services that way is at least twice as much as they might gain from operating through to Carmarthen instead. (Disclosure: It probably doesn't work the way I think it might work.)