Suggestion: LNWR and traditional Intercity timetable post HS2

[adrock1976]

As mentioned recently in the LNWR May 2019 timetable thread, I have had a go at creating what a post HS2 timetable could look like along the conventional network, which was no mean feat in itself due to the various complexities. I have attached the spreadsheet below.

For the traditional Intercity trains, I had as a starting point the Birmingham departures being at xx15 and xx45, as that was how it used to be (from Birmingham NS at least). I have used 110mph timings as I do not anticipate any new tilting trains post HS2, nor any "Baby Pendolino" projects hence I have assumed fixed formation trains with no coupling/uncoupling (which also goes for Regional and Local trains too). I have based this on the following assumptions:

1) The present day Glasgow Central via the ex Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop to Warrington Bank Quay has been transferred to HS2, running non stop between London and Preston.

2) The present day Glasgow Central/Edinburgh Waverley via Birmingham has been retained, and a Birmingham New Street terminator continues to Shrewsbury (assuming wires are up being as the local service has been doubled in frequency, and to reduce as many diesel trains as possible at Birmingham). The London - Birmingham frequency is reduced from every 20 minutes to every 30 minutes, and will call at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham International, New Street, Sandwell & Dudley, and Wolverhampton before continuing towards Shrewsbury or Scotland via Preston.

3) Liverpool still retains its 60 minute frequency, calling at Milton Keynes Central and Nuneaton as well as the present day stops of Stafford, Crewe, and Runcorn.

4) Manchester's frequency is reduced from every 20 minutes to every 60 minutes, as HS2 can be used for end to end journeys. Trains will call at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, and Manchester Piccadilly. It is anticipated that Northern will be doubling the frequency of the Manchester - Stoke trains from the present day 60 minute frequency.

5) Chester still retains its 60 minute frequency, calling at Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Stafford, Crewe, and Chester. Trains could continue every 2 hours to Holyhead, calling at Llandudno Junction, Bangor (Gwynedd), and Holyhead.

6) Preston still retains its links south along the conventional network with a London - Blackpool train every 60 minutes, calling at Rugby, Stafford, Crewe, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Kirkham & Wesham, Poulton le Fylde, and Blackpool North. In combination with the via Birmingham - Scotland trains, this doubles the frequency between Crewe and Preston.


For the regional services, I have based the frequencies and service patterns below, with all of the Intercity trains calling at Milton Keynes Central:

1) London - Birmingham New Street via Northampton every 30 minutes, calling Watford Junction, Leighton Buzzard*, Bletchley, Milton Keynes Central, Wolverton, Northampton, Long Buckby, Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham International, and New Street. Trains will switch to the Slow Lines at Hanslope Junction. Also, Hemel Hempstead and Berkhamsted will no longer have direct trains to Coventry, Birmingham International, and Birmingham New Street.

2) London - Crewe via Nuneaton every 30 minutes, calling Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton, Atherstone, Polesworth**, Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Rugeley Trent Valley, Stafford, and Crewe.

3) Birmingham New Street - Liverpool Lime Street every 60 minutes calling Smethwick Galton Bridge, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe, Winford, Hartford, Acton Bridge, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway, and Liverpool Lime Street. Although frequency reduced, this is compensated by a short local Crewe - Liverpool, and the Manchester - Bournemouth Cross-country being switched to Liverpool (I have based this on the assumption that Manchester, Stockport, Macclesfield, and Stoke-on-Trent still have direct Intercity links with Oxford and Reading via the East West Railway). Liverpool and Runcorn still retains 2 direct trains each hour to Stafford, Wolverhampton, and Birmingham.

4) Birmingham New Street - Chester via Shrewsbury and Wrexham General every 60 minutes, calling Smethwick Galton Bridge, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, Shrewsbury, and stations to Chester via Wrexham. Although operated on behalf of the Welsh Government, it is assumed that the Aberystwyth and Pwllheli - Birmingham International trains can be curtailed at Shrewsbury as there is the London Intercity every 60 minutes. Both the London - Shrewsbury Intercity and the Birmingham - Chester via Wrexham both combined gives a frequency of 2 trains each hour broadly 30 minutes apart between Birmingham and Shrewsbury.

5) Although shown for illustrative purposes only, I have anticipated that the present day Newcastle Central - Reading/Southampton Cross-country will be rerouted via Coventry vice Solihull. I have also switched the Manchester - Bournemouth to Liverpool Lime Street, as I have anticipated that Manchester, Stockport, Macclesfield, and Stoke will still retain direct Intercity links to Oxford and Reading via the East West Railway. Manchester, Stockport, Macclesfield, and Stoke will still retain their direct Intercity links to Exeter via Birmingham.

The local trains for the Slow Lines between London and Hanslope Junction were based on the northbound xx08/09 departures at Wembley Central as a starting point, as these originate from East Croydon via Kensington Olympia and I did not fancy revising timetables for everything that passes or calls at Clapham Junction. The service pattern and frequency is outlined below, as well as for local trains in the West Midlands:

1) The East Croydon - Milton Keynes Central is increased from every 60 minutes to every 30 minutes, and is extended to Rugby via Northampton (I believe there is a London facing bay platform at Rugby). This will call all stations except Kings Langley and Apsley. In combination with the London - Birmingham via Northampton Regional, this provides a frequency of every 15 minutes between Leighton Buzzard and Rugby via Northampton.

2) London - Tring is doubled in frequency from every 30 minutes to every 15 minutes, calling all stations including Queens Park (London). Maybe a contender to feature in one of the various London Crossrail projects in future?

3) Coventry - Crewe via Birmingham New Street and the Stoke-on-Trent dogleg, calling all stations (alternating between Barlaston and Wedgwood, assuming both have actual trains calling). There are layovers at Birmingham International and Wolverhampton so as to allow the ex London Intercity and the Intercity Cross-country to overtake. As it is anticipated that the Derby - Crewe frequency may be doubled, this would mean that there would be a train broadly every 15 minutes between Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe, with the single track section between Alsager and Crewe causing problems.

4) Crewe - Liverpool Lime Street every 60 minutes calling all stations. This means that both Hartford and Liverpool South Parkway retains its 2 trains per hour frequency to Runcorn and Lime Street (Hartford), and Crewe (Liverpool South Parkway). It was the only way I could get it to work, hence the 10 minute layover at Crewe on the Birmingham - Liverpool Regional.

5) Birmingham New Street - Shrewsbury every 30 minutes, calling Smethwick Galton Bridge, Wolverhampton, and all stations to Shrewsbury. When combined with the London - Shrewsbury Intercity and the Birmingham - Chester via Wrexham, this provides 4 trains each hour between Birmingham and Shrewsbury.

On a final point, I do admit that I have had various frustrations along the way, which I can understand what the timetable planners are faced with even though they have the professional software to design timetables as in contrast with me having a spreadsheet and using the timings from websites such as Real Time Trains. Also, knowing me, I may have been far too ambitious here regarding service patterns and frequencies. There have also been times that I have thought whether the Glasgow/Edinburgh via Birmingham and Preston would be better with Cross-country, if having Liverpool - Bournemouth switching from Manchester, i felt that I would upset Stokies if the Exeter was switched from Manchester to Scotland.

If anybody fancies having a go at designing a possible post HS2 timetable and can do it slightly better than I have done, feel free to do so. I have only managed to do the northbound direction so far, but will do the southbound direction at some point in the near future.

* Whenever I used to hear Leighton Buzzard being announced at Birmingham back in the late 1980s/early 90s, I used to conjure up in my mind it must be one of these exotic and whimsical places for ornithologists. Then I found out that Leighton Buzzard is famous for where the band Kajagoogoo were from, who are known for scoring a Number 1 in 1983 with "Too Shy" and following up with another Top 40 single "Big Apple". They have done not much else or as big since then.

** Polesworth is shown for illustrative purposes. I do not anticipate a train calling every 30 minutes initially, but access to the London platform needs to be sorted.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You might want to extend 2 out of those 4tph Tring stoppers to Bletchley, MKC or even Northampton - otherwise you're proposing a quite hefty cut to commuter capacity and for Cheddington to lose its entire London service.

 

[adrock1976]

You might want to extend 2 out of those 4tph Tring stoppers to Bletchley, MKC or even Northampton - otherwise you're proposing a quite hefty cut to commuter capacity and for Cheddington to lose its entire London service.

Many thanks for the comment as I had forgot about that.

I have extended the xx15 and xx45 London - Tring to Northampton, and have deleted the ex East Croydon calls at Cheddington (on the other hand, would 4tph at Cheddington be too much?).

I have attached adjusted file below.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That looks better...Cheddington presently has 1tph off-peak plus peak extras, the main usage is commuters, but if we're going fully "im Takt" I'd suggest giving it 2 all day rather than 1 in the peak.

It presently has an incredibly bitty timetable, a symptom of the mess LNR have made of things:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/sea...12/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=pax-calls&order=wtt

Given that VTWC, which tends to drive how things can be done on the south WCML, is a fully clockface operation except at the crack of dawn and very late in the day, I don't know quite how they managed to get in that sort of mess. It must surely have been harder to plan than a standard hour.

 

[randyrippley]

So how are passengers from north of Preston supposed to get to London?
Most of us have no interest in enduring a forced diversion via Birmingham

 

[adrock1976]

So how are passengers from north of Preston supposed to get to London?
Most of us have no interest in enduring a forced diversion via Birmingham

If you read the (rather admittedly lengthy) opening post, you will find that I have based the traditional Intercity services on the assumption that the present day London - Glasgow via the ex Trent Valley Railway that runs non-stop between London and Warrington Bank Quay will have been transferred to HS2 between London and Preston. There would be no or very minimal change to the Preston - Glasgow section of calling patterns.

In other words, do relax. I have always thought that since the December 2008 timetable change of Virgin West Coast, I was under the impression that not everybody wants to reach London at breakneck speed, but to have better regional connectivity along the route, which most of that connectivity got lost in the aforementioned timetable change.

Anyway, I believe that when HS2 reaches the North West, it would enable regional connectivity to be restored along the conventional network, as HS2 can be used for the end to end journeys (or to and from Birmingham as well).

 

[krus_aragon]

4) Birmingham New Street - Chester via Shrewsbury and Wrexham General every 60 minutes, calling Smethwick Galton Bridge, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington Telford West, Shrewsbury, and stations to Chester via Wrexham. Although operated on behalf of the Welsh Government, it is assumed that the Aberystwyth and Pwllheli - Birmingham International trains can be curtailed at Shrewsbury as there is the London Intercity every 60 minutes. Both the London - Shrewsbury Intercity and the Birmingham - Chester via Wrexham both combined gives a frequency of 2 trains each hour broadly 30 minutes apart between Birmingham and Shrewsbury.

The current TfW Birmingham - Shrewsbury - Chester (- Holyhead) service is a direct two-hourly train, with a cross-platform connection at Shrewsbury in the intervening hour between Birmingham-Aberystwyth and Cardiff-Holyhead services. There will also be an hourly Liverpool - Shrewsbury (-Cardiff) service in the future, and the Shrewsbury-Aberystwyth frequency will be increased to hourly.

On your proposed plan, I presume that the current TfW Holyhead-Chester-Shrewsbury-Birmingham services would be curtailed, possibly diverted to Crewe. Your proposed LNWR Birmingham-Chester hourly service would have to use a different path, as if it uses the current TfW one it would clash with the Cardiff - Holyhead service north of Shrewsbury. Giving the current TfW Birmingham-Shrewsbury path to the proposed London service would work better.

The only task then would be ensuring that the hourly Liverpool - Shrewsbury, hourly Birmingham - Chester, and two-hourly Cardiff - Holyhead services are all diagrammed neatly around the single track section between Wrexham and Chester.

I'm a little unsure of the rationale for doing all of this, though. With the WCML being recast anyway, it should be practical enough to timetable an hourly London-Shrewsbury service so that it runs half way between the existing TfW Birmingham-Shrewsbury service. It appears to me that this proposal is largely a switch of the current service from one operator to the other. But maybe I've missed something.

What benefits do you envisage from doing this?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Post HS2 would a hourly Holyhead service be worthwhile? Potentially being Half hourly from Chester to London?

 

[The Ham]

Post HS2 would a hourly Holyhead service be worthwhile? Potentially being Half hourly from Chester to London?

It probably comes down to what trains there are to run it & what electrification has happened.

It probably wouldn't be ideal to have Voyagers running a significant distance under the wires, once HS2 phase 2 (whatever bit gets you to Manchester) is built there could be a discussion about diverting the South Coast XC services away from Manchester and along the North Wales coast so as to reduce the need for multiple franchises have bimodal trains when they're not needed for much else.

XC/HS2 passengers could change at Crewe and it would only really inconvenience those passengers to/from Milton Keynes on the WCML services. Whilst it would impact more the XC passengers heading to Manchester mostly only those at/North of Oxford (Reading and Southwards would be faster & more frequent with a change at OOC) and South of Birmingham (although most of those from Banbury and the like would be able to use the Chiltern services and change at Birmingham for HS2 services and have a more frequent & faster service).

 

[krus_aragon]

Post HS2 would a hourly Holyhead service be worthwhile? Potentially being Half hourly from Chester to London?

(Assuming that Chester and North Wales services remain on the WCML, as opposed to HS2 classic-compatible services)

I'd be happy with a full two-hourly service, with extras in the peak. TfW are going to be operating 3tph between Chester and Llandudno Junction in three years' time, with 2tph continuing to Bangor. I think an hourly London service on top of that might be a bit over-generous.

Not that I'd look a gift horse in the mouth, mind you.

 

[krus_aragon]

It probably wouldn't be ideal to have Voyagers running a significant distance under the wires, once HS2 phase 2 (whatever bit gets you to Manchester) is built there could be a discussion about diverting the South Coast XC services away from Manchester and along the North Wales coast so as to reduce the need for multiple franchises have bimodal trains when they're not needed for much else.

That's a very novel suggestion. Do you picture sending South Coast XC services to North Wales as well as, or instead of London services?

I can see the logic in it from an operational point of view, but removing all London services from North Wales would be politically unpopular. Especially given the arguments there have already been over whether Wales benefits directly from HS2 or not (and thus whether a percentage of HS2's price tag should be allocated to Wales as a Barnett consequential).

 

[mmh]

Remains for the Stoke Service via Stafford, Stoke and then terminates at Macclesfield.

I thought a few months ago in one of the main HS2 threads people said Macclesfield terminators wouldn't happen.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

I thought a few months ago in one of the main HS2 threads people said Macclesfield terminators wouldn't happen.

DfT asked HS2 to include a Macclesfield service to serve Stafford and Stoke. Previously he Lichfield link will be used to serve Stafford.

 

[The Ham]

That's a very novel suggestion. Do you picture sending South Coast XC services to North Wales as well as, or instead of London services?

I can see the logic in it from an operational point of view, but removing all London services from North Wales would be politically unpopular. Especially given the arguments there have already been over whether Wales benefits directly from HS2 or not (and thus whether a percentage of HS2's price tag should be allocated to Wales as a Barnett consequential).

With a 30 minutes time saving between Crewe and London on HS2 vs using the WCML (with potential for it to be more if the services call at other stations) there's the potential for most passengers being willing to switch trains at Crewe for a HS2 service over a direct service.

Add in the potential for long under the wire running of diesel trains (which could be politically unacceptable) and I can see why it could happen.

However I do take onboard the fact that somewhere loosing it's direct services to London wouldn't be very popular.

Which is why I said that there could be discussions about such a change.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Hartford

Bit of a random call but ok.

 

[adrock1976]

I have had a go at doing the southbound direction, which as I had suspected, I had ran into various problems. The main one being the present single track section between Alsager and Crewe, which meant that (surprise, surprise), the southbound timings at Wolverhampton were the same as the northbound, where I had initially allowed an overtaking move. Rather problematic with only one island platform at Wolverhampton. Also, is the Crewe - Alsager section planned to be double track when Crewe gets rebuilt, bearing in mind that services to and from Derby will be doubled in frequency to every 30 minutes?

Anyway, I revised the Coventry - Crewe via Stoke local to run Coventry - Wolverhampton still with the overtaking move at Birmingham International. I have the Crewe via Stoke running International - Crewe, which provides a 15 minute frequency International - Wolverhampton calling all stations (I believe there will be a second side platform at International, making it 6 in total). Also, I realised that there would be a much improved interchange opportunity at Dudley Port with the Midland Metro trams (or heavy rail) with the ex South Staffordshire Railway, as opposed to the present day 30 minutes frequency.

Being as I had 2 trains each hour from London terminating at New Street, that seems reasonable. However, I initially had 6 trains (including the separate Crewe via Stoke) each hour terminating New Street from the Wolverhampton direction via Smethwick. Hence how I have run the Liverpool and Shrewsbury regionals through to International as well as the Crewe via Stoke, also with the Liverpool regional omitting Winford and Acton Bridge (I still have a Crewe - Liverpool local every 60 minutes calling all stations).

Some thoughts that came into my mind while attempting the southbound direction (and after wading my way through PS1Berske's comments after hijacking the tread - comments subsequently removed since I last viewed this thread) were that maybe switching the Bournemouth to run to and from Glasgow/Edinburgh and running the London Intercity via Birmingham to Liverpool i.e switching them around. This would allow the Shrewsbury to be switched to the opposite half hour as with the exception of the Aberystwyth/Pwllheli being retimed earlier when Bow Street Interchange reopens, I do not expect the Wales & Borders to be radically altered. I may have a go at switching those around and retiming them to see how it would look like with everything else.

It was in my mind to have the present day Holyhead - Birmingham via Wrexham to be revised to run Holyhead - Crewe (with a portion coupling/uncoupling every 2 hours for Cardiff), as I anticipate Shrewsbury - Liverpool via Wrexham and Halton Curve to run to run in the opposite hour between Chester and Shrewsbury. With the Birmingham - Chester via Wrexham, this would provide a frequency of every 30 minutes between Shrewsbury and Chester.

I did consider having the Crewe - Liverpool local revised to run Crewe - Liverpool via Warrington Bank Quay vice Runcorn, so as to provide Winford and Acton Bridge a direct train to and from Warrington. I am unsure if there are lots of passengers who presently travel to and from Winford and Acton Bridge to Runcorn and South Parkway - if so, I could add an additional local broadly in the opposite half hour to Liverpool via Warrington. For Winford and Acton Bridge to Stafford, Wolverhampton, and Birmingham, there are various interchange options at Crewe anyway. Perhaps a case for bimodal regional trains until Shrewsbury - Chester - Warrington BQ/Halton Curve are wired?

A final thought that I had was maybe instead of 6 Intercity trains to and from London, for it to be reduced to 4 with all calling at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, and Rugby along the south section of the mainline. This would mean the Shrewsbury would remain, the Manchester via Stoke would remain, and the Blackpool would also remain as well. Being as the running times between Crewe and Chester and Crewe and Liverpool are broadly the same, I did consider coupling/uncoupling at Crewe, but this would have meant the now abandoned Baby Pendolino concept coming into play, which I initially wanted to steer clear of due to reduced passenger capacity on the Liverpool leg. For the Shrewsbury - Birmingham locals, I have thought about revising these to run Shrewsbury - Wolverhampton, or Shrewsbury - Walsall or Aldridge (depending if the ex Midland Railway Sutton Park line ever sees wires) calling at a reopened Willenhall. Again, I am unsure if there are a lot of passengers from Oakengates, Shifnal, Gosford, Albrighton, Codsall, and Bilbrook that remain on the train after Wolverhampton or if they all seem to bail there. Again, there are various interchange opportunities at Wolverhampton for all three grades of services.

I have attached the file below.

 

[krus_aragon]

You've clearly put a fair bit of thought into this, and I don't know the current WMCL timetable well enough to offer much criticism. There is one further point I can comment on, though:

It was in my mind to have the present day Holyhead - Birmingham via Wrexham to be revised to run Holyhead - Crewe (with a portion coupling/uncoupling every 2 hours for Cardiff), as I anticipate Shrewsbury - Liverpool via Wrexham and Halton Curve to run to run in the opposite hour between Chester and Shrewsbury. With the Birmingham - Chester via Wrexham, this would provide a frequency of every 30 minutes between Shrewsbury and Chester.

There is a possibility that some changes are planned for the Holyhead-Birmingham service, because it was conspicuously missing from any of the planned improvements announced last year at the franchise handover. There's also been a fleeting glance at a proposal to extend the TfW Birmingham International services through to Coventry, as seen in this thread. The extra time required would mean the Cambrian and Holyhead services would no longer be interworked, which would enable your plan to divert the Holyhead service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One question - are there enough platforms at Intl for your proposal or would they need to add one? (It's probably one of the easiest stations to do that, as space seems to have been left for another island, a bit like you could at Milton Keynes Central by building on the car park).

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is a possibility that some changes are planned for the Holyhead-Birmingham service, because it was conspicuously missing from any of the planned improvements announced last year at the franchise handover. There's also been a fleeting glance at a proposal to extend the TfW Birmingham International services through to Coventry, as seen in this thread. The extra time required would mean the Cambrian and Holyhead services would no longer be interworked, which would enable your plan to divert the Holyhead service.

What's notable about that is that decoupling the services and adding resilience is the main reason for this - they are only sending them to Cov (!) to get them out of the way, as there isn't scope to block a platform at International for that length of time.

 

[adrock1976]

One question - are there enough platforms at Intl for your proposal or would they need to add one? (It's probably one of the easiest stations to do that, as space seems to have been left for another island, a bit like you could at Milton Keynes Central by building on the car park).

I recall reading a thread in the Infrastructure and Stations section a while ago that Birmingham International will be having an extra side platform next to the 4/5 island. I am unsure if it has already been constructed as last summer (or the one before), I saw what appeared to be prep works there when I passed through.

 

[The Planner]

No plans to redouble Crewe to Alsager and P6 at International is a fag packet idea and not funded (nor proven to be needed either)

That spreadsheet is a nightmare to navigate at you have trains later in the hour before ones that run before them! You also have trains 2 minutes apart in places, in one case southbound 1 minute, that isn't happening.