Storm Bronagh - Thursday 20/09 to Friday 21/09

[gavin]

Hot on the heels of Storm Ali we now have Storm Bronagh warnings are in force for England Wales from 6pm tonight to 9am tomorrow

The strongest winds are then expected to clear into the North Sea early on Friday. Most likely is that we will see gusts of 45-50 mph in a few spots inland as well as more widely around exposed coasts. However, there is a small chance that stronger winds will develop in some areas with 60-65 mph gusts possible, particularly overnight into Friday across eastern England

Further disruption to the rail network is possible with heavy rain moving across parts of England now bringning the risk of flooding then strong winds during this evening and into tomorrow

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-20

 

[Wivenswold]

I've spent the morning checking forecasts and weather models. There's a surprising amount of disagreement between forecasting agencies over the headline wind speeds in this fast developing system.

The Met Office have rightly played it safe by issuing the warning. Some computer models have gusts of 75-80mph over East Anglia in the early hours, these are almost certainly over-cooking it. Others suggest nearer to 35mph maximum gusts. Even the areas hit by the strongest winds are different on each computer model.

It's a nightmare for the TOCs this one. However they react, it won't be good enough for some. If I were to call it, Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk to get 50mph+ gusts. The rest of the south east to escape the worst with 30-45mph. I may change that opinion when the next set of data comes out this afternoon though.

 

[DarloRich]

why do storms need names? Does the wind blowing down the OHLE change if it is called Storm Allan or Storm Tommy?

 

[6Gman]

why do storms need names? Does the wind blowing down the OHLE change if it is called Storm Allan or Storm Tommy?

The idea is that it raises public awareness, particularly where there are separate storms over a short period of time.

 

[DarloRich]

The idea is that it raises public awareness, particularly where there are separate storms over a short period of time.

i can look out of the window and be aware of the weather I take the point but does naming really increase awareness beyond a weather warning? Anyway that is O/T

 

[ArchieWoodbine]

If anything, I think it makes people desensitised to adverse weather. Used to be, if the Met-office put out a storm warning or gave a storm a name, it would be a pretty serious event and hence caught people's attention.

I'm not sure anyone pays much attention now given the frequency of these sort of alers - it's a classic case of 'The boy who cried wolf'.

 

[gavin]

South Western Railway services will have speed restricitions put in place this evening on parts of the network

From 20:00 a speed restriction will be in place between:

• Weymouth and Bournemouth in both directions.

From 22:00 a speed restriction will be in place between:

• Woking and Portsmouth Harbour

• Woking and Exeter St Davids

• Woking and Bristol Temple Meads

• Portsmouth Harbour and Southampton Central

• Salisbury and Southampton Central

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/today.aspx

 

[Lytham Local]

I'm not sure anyone pays much attention now given the frequency of these sort of alers - it's a classic case of 'The boy who cried wolf'.

Won't be long until the Daily Express gives us the "worst winter ever coming" warning..... Again!

 

[gavin]

Won't be long until the Daily Express gives us the "worst winter ever coming" warning..... Again!

Not far off already! https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...orecast-uk-long-range-winter-forecast-el-nino

 

[nr758123]

why do storms need names? Does the wind blowing down the OHLE change if it is called Storm Allan or Storm Tommy?

I used to tell a joke, which was sexist, coarse and in very poor taste. Why are hurricanes named after women?

But it no longer works because names are now supposed to alternate between male and female, and if I was to give the punchline it would probably earn me a lifetime ban from Railforums.

 

[InOban]

Can we at least be thankful that forecasting has reached the point where an event can be predicted, even if there is still a margin of error over its strength. In 1987 we had no idea....

 

[AlistairCowell]

Can we at least be thankful that forecasting has reached the point where an event can be predicted, even if there is still a margin of error over its strength. In 1987 we had no idea....

Michael Fish did assure that there wouldn't be a hurricane back in October 1987.
Unfortunately, the Great Storm of 1987 did made landfall in Cornwall hours later and Fish was all wrong!

Mind you everything in London was disrupted by power cuts and trains were cancelled.

 

[Gareth]

Of course, the folklore on that is quite inaccurate. Although he explained it poorly, Michael Fish was actually correct. The UK doesn't get hurricanes.

 

[InOban]

But we do get hurricane-force winds (force 12 on the Beaufort Scale).
And as I was hinting, a repeat of 1987 would now be forecastable.

 

[Essexman]

The climate is changing. Sea levels are rising. There are more 'exceptional' weather events and this trend will continue.
Few informed people now doubt that climate change is happening.
It will affect the railways and flooding, high winds etc will cause increased disruption.

 

[Gareth]

But we do get hurricane-force winds (force 12 on the Beaufort Scale).

Very occasionally, yes but the distinction is important. It's a common misconception that the UK was hit by an actual hurricane in 1987. Rather, it was an exceptionally strong European windstorm, which is quite a different beast in its constitution.

 

[SSp]

The climate is changing. Sea levels are rising. There are more 'exceptional' weather events and this trend will continue.
Few informed people now doubt that climate change is happening.
It will affect the railways and flooding, high winds etc will cause increased disruption.

Not often that you get irony on here

 

[route101]

Hopefully my TPE from Glasgow tomorrow afternoon is ok .

 

[adrock1976]

Can we at least be thankful that forecasting has reached the point where an event can be predicted, even if there is still a margin of error over its strength. In 1987 we had no idea....

Michael Fish did assure that there wouldn't be a hurricane back in October 1987.
Unfortunately, the Great Storm of 1987 did made landfall in Cornwall hours later and Fish was all wrong!

Mind you everything in London was disrupted by power cuts and trains were cancelled.

Of course, the folklore on that is quite inaccurate. Although he explained it poorly, Michael Fish was actually correct. The UK doesn't get hurricanes.

If you study the original video footage of that famous forecast, you will notice a slight jump in the picture where the tape had been spliced for editing. Michael Fish later explained that there had been a telephone call from a lady in California enquiring about the storms over there, which this bit was the part that was cut out of the recording to edit it down so as to fit in the time allocation for the presentation.

 

[Llanigraham]

Cancellations on the Cambrian this morning due to flooding, I presume at Black Bridge.
Dovey Bridge closed to road traffic.

 

[FOCTOC]

The idea is that it raises public awareness, particularly where there are separate storms over a short period of time.

Back in the day, most of us used to just look out of the window. We knew it was a storm when things started blowing over. Pathetic, creeping, Americanism.

 

[PHILIPE]

Line closed from Thursday evening until end of play Monday between Porth and Dinas Rhondda due landslip. Bustitution

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Back in the day, most of us used to just look out of the window. We knew it was a storm when things started blowing over. Pathetic, creeping, Americanism.

When things start blowing over, it's already too late! I personally don't find it any more helpful that the weather forecaster, instead of saying "there's a storm coming, so make sure your garden furniture is tied down" says "there's a storm coming, his name's Jeff, tie your garden furniture down". However there are some folk out there it helps (for some reason) and if it means their trampoline is less likely to get tangled in the overheads, it's a price worth paying.
Creeping Americanism* or not!

*=as is my spelling of the name 'Geoff'

 

[PR1Berske]

Back in the day, most of us used to just look out of the window. We knew it was a storm when things started blowing over. Pathetic, creeping, Americanism.

I've heard this criticism a lot about "creeping Americanism" and truly don't get that at all. Yes, time was we did go, 'oh look it's a storm out there' but in terms of dealing with it, there was little national awareness or coordinated responses.

I've noticed, anecdotally, that people still refer to the recent named storms because they've stuck in people's minds. Desmond and Brian from a few years ago, Ali this year. It appears to be popular and working.

 

[judethegreat]

Can we at least be thankful that forecasting has reached the point where an event can be predicted, even if there is still a margin of error over its strength. In 1987 we had no idea....

(Apart from the fact that they now err very much on the side of caution), I think actually things may have peaked.

One of the things that was predicted for climate change was unpredictable weather.

Certainly the windier it is the more impossible it is to accurately forecast when and where rain will fall, which makes sense, but I think generally forecasts are *gradually* getting more unreliable.

 

[najaB]

Pathetic, creeping, Americanism.

The naming of tropical cyclones is a long-standing practice, agreed by the World Meteorological Organisation and helps keep the public informed and aware, it's not an Americanism.

The only thing that's changed in recent years is extending the practice to extra-tropical systems for the same reason.

 

[najaB]

but I think generally forecasts are *gradually* getting more unreliable.

Evidence? The statistics I've seen say otherwise.