Banham7
Member
The Met Office has updated the warnings for tomorrow, and the whole of the UK is now under a Yellow Warning.
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Storm Amy Travel Disruption (03/10 onwards)
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Yellow warnings are a bit "the weather is going to be a bit rubbish" and not a really serious thing unless you're planning on going up a mountain in which case this weekend might not be a good choice. I'm not sure their introduction has been a good thing overall.
It's amber warnings where real danger starts to lie and where TOCs might want to consider withdrawing services.
It's amber warnings where real danger starts to lie and where TOCs might want to consider withdrawing services.
hexagon789
Veteran Member
I've noticed the forecast wind speeds have increased. Glasgow was showing as gusts up to 51mph, now its 65mph.
Pinus contorta
Member
Depends what the weather warnings are for. And the risk matrix. And what you are intending to do ( go canoeing wind surfing mountain climbing etx)
It's already raining heavily in Cheshire so it's on the way!
Snow1964
Established Member
Just checked the Met office weather warnings and the Amber area starts north of Glasgow (but does include bit of Ayrshire coast)
So the axing of services Preston-Glasgow/Edinburgh is just being over cautious as that only has a yellow be aware, not a take action.
UK weather warnings
Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.
weather.metoffice.gov.uk
The Saturday amber warning is north of Inverness and ends 9pm, so cutting the Saturday service in the Scottish Borders 100-200 miles away seems overkill, and more akin to a cant be bothered to try attitude.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
This has been reversed and trains are now planned to run between Preston and the Central Belt as things stand.
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Because it's operationally convenient - all Avanti trains change crews there. It's also a big station with lots of platforms and sidings and the option of shoving units off to Blackpool if there's too much of a buildup.
it's not, actually. I have just cycled home through it and double-checking, the Met Office rainfall radar shows hardly anything worse than blue - 2 mm an hour with small patches of up to 4.
Attachments
Actually it is, I looked outside of a window, in Cheshire.
it absolutely is not. We are getting up to 4, a small area around Buxton has up to 8 and the scale goes up to 32 and then "above 32."
See https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/ma...kv&layer=rainfall-rate×tep=1671617700000 and go back 5 or 10 minutes from the pessimistic forecast - or do you think it is fake news?
Just looked at the Met Office, seems its gone (mid morning) from an Amber alert to a Yellow alert now, Amber north of Glasgow and Perth. Saturday is now Amber North of Inverness and Peterhead, the rest is just a yelloe warning.They've backed down; trains will now run on Saturday. Grossly unprofessional as usual
I'm sorry my mistake, it's cracking the flags at 25 degrees here....
Another poster mentioned that rain was on it's way to Manchester, and I confirmed it was here already. I'm not interested in getting into an argument with you on what constitutes heavy rain, it is raining heavily here in my little corner of Cheshire. I know because I can see it with my eyes.
Edit: And the Met office agrees with me, heavy rain in the area:
Northwich (Cheshire West and Chester) weather
Northwich 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV
weather.metoffice.gov.uk
Seems to me entirely reasonable to update their plans when advice from the Met Office is updated.They've backed down; trains will now run on Saturday. Grossly unprofessional as usual
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
It was before that and was not announced clearly as a change - it's just the discussions under the post I linked that made it apparent.
I stick with my view that it's incompetent and unprofessional, but exactly what we expect from that woeful TOC.
LNER by contrast (much as we hate their fares policy) are being much clearer.
Peter Mugridge
Veteran Member
Those worried about keeping up with the rapidly changing nature of the forecasts can use the rain radar to judge things; it updates every 5 minutes and I've found it to be very useful in the past on multiple occasions; the link is here:
www.netweather.tv
...and this is the wind as well; place the spot anywhere in the country and it'll give you the wind strength and direction for that specific location live; using the two sites together should help greatly with travel planning:
earth.nullschool.net
Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar | Netweather
Live weather radar for the UK including weather type to track whether rain, sleet or snow is falling. Updated every 5 minutes.
www.netweather.tv
...and this is the wind as well; place the spot anywhere in the country and it'll give you the wind strength and direction for that specific location live; using the two sites together should help greatly with travel planning:
earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions
See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.
MP393
Member
Don’t worry, it’s raining heavily in my little corner of Cheshire too, so you’re not going mad
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Raining where I am too (nowhere near Cheshire but feels reasonable to suggest it may have been raining in Cheshire…)Don’t worry, it’s raining heavily in my little corner of Cheshire too, so you’re not going mad
Howardh
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I'm currently on Formentera and return tomorrow to Manchester Airport, easyJet have already alerted me to possible plane delays, Manchester appears to be in the fringe of the alert area, so I'm expecting my Northern train from the airport (usually go Blackpool) won't be too badly affected.
I doubt Northern trains will be like Avanti and stop at Preston too?
I doubt Northern trains will be like Avanti and stop at Preston too?
Currently raining here, but not heavily yet. Probably will be later on once the the weather from Cheshire has reached us.
It must just be (mis)perceptions. both my radar and @Peter Mugridge both show low rainfall all across Cheshire. I doubt that there are 2 radars covering the whole country, so it will all be based on the same data anyway.Don’t worry, it’s raining heavily in my little corner of Cheshire too, so you’re not going mad
Class 466
Established Member
I see Avanti's travel advice has returned to "It is advised that you do not travel North of Preston after 17:00, and all day on Saturday 4 October." on National Rail Enquiries, yet their website is far more wishy washy.
It doesn't, that's only a forecast, and usually pessimistic. And as I said, if you look at the Met office radar you see "now," a very broad brush pessimistic picture. Go back 5 or 10 minutes and you see what actually happened, and going back from thet gives an idea of what is coming your way.Edit: And the Met office agrees with me, heavy rain in the area:
Northwich (Cheshire West and Chester) weather
Northwich 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
They aren't however communicating it very competently.
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I don't think it ever changed there. Their website is the current advice which is being echoed by X.
There's a surprise.
If someone looks out of their window and says "it's raining heavily" then I think it might best to take them at their word and agree it's raining heavily. It might not be raining heavily across the entirety of Cheshire, but in their part of Cheshire it is. Whatever the rain radar might say.
Ok but to give an extreme example, the forecast on the Met Office for the Ben Nevis summit tonight is gusts of up to 131mph. In reality maybe it won't exceed a 'mere' 100mph.
Pessimistic it may be, but it's a gamble, and that's an example of a gamble with your life.
Yeah ok down low we're maybe looking at gusts of 60mph but this is still life threatening territory.
If the railways don't take preventative measures they get slammed by customers for delays and cancellations.
If they do take preventative measures like so not travel notices or service restrictions, they also appear to get hit.
They can't win. But out of the two, I'd rather they chose the latter to potentially preserve life, and at least give people a heads up in advance of their planned travel that they probably ought to sit tight for a bit.
Pessimistic it may be, but it's a gamble, and that's an example of a gamble with your life.
Yeah ok down low we're maybe looking at gusts of 60mph but this is still life threatening territory.
If the railways don't take preventative measures they get slammed by customers for delays and cancellations.
If they do take preventative measures like so not travel notices or service restrictions, they also appear to get hit.
They can't win. But out of the two, I'd rather they chose the latter to potentially preserve life, and at least give people a heads up in advance of their planned travel that they probably ought to sit tight for a bit.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I don't think anyone is suggesting ScotRail are making a wrong decision with regard to the Amber warning area. We are suggesting Avanti did, because of their usual "oh dear, the trees are blowing around a bit, cancel everything north of Preston" wolf-crying. They are architects of their own situation.
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