Speculation regarding Class 379 future

[Ted172]

Would it be likely for GA to refurbish the 379s to the same standard of the 745s?

 

[Scottychoo]

The 317s will get a PRM extension, it's a formality. If GA were going to use 745s on the WAML they would have started testing weeks ago.

 

[Prestige15]

Would it be likely for GA to refurbish the 379s to the same standard of the 745s?

I would say so.

 

[MrPIC]

The 317s will get a PRM extension, it's a formality. If GA were going to use 745s on the WAML they would have started testing weeks ago.

It always struck me as strange putting crown point based stock so far from the depot. If a 745 failed at Stansted its a hell of a trek back to crown point to swap a unit or something.

 

[Scottychoo]

Exactly, another clue that they were never going to be used on the Stansteds. But hey ho it helped Abelio win the franchise.

 

[306024]

Exactly, another clue that they were never going to be used on the Stansteds. But hey ho it helped Abelio win the franchise.

You are making it sound like a well thought out plan. There are other clues that could argue that it isn’t.

Regardless of the long term future of 379s, it makes more sense to keep the Stadler units on the GEML anyway, closer to their maintenance base, although that would throw the drivers depot traction knowledge requirements up in the air. Passenger loadings on the Colchester line are not yet at the stage where 720s are required on everything.

 

[jopsuk]

if they're to be kept, I'd hope they'll be at least refurbed to remove 1st class as per the franchise plan, to improve capacity.

 

[Elshad]

If they're gonna be used on Stansted services they should probably retain the 2+1 1st class. Otherwise they will end up with something like the joke Gatwick Express passes off as "1st class".

 

[MrPIC]

Exactly, another clue that they were never going to be used on the Stansteds. But hey ho it helped Abelio win the franchise.

Hmm sounds a bit dubious tbh, I doubt the original plan was a ruse.
*edit* this post was my 379th. Illuminati confirmed.

 

[Prestige15]

if they're to be kept, I'd hope they'll be at least refurbed to remove 1st class as per the franchise plan, to improve capacity.

Out of interest, Does Stansted Express regularly gets overcrowded to justify on removing 1st class?

I have been on StaEX twice years ago (class 317/7) and the loading was pretty high but not overcrowded.

 

[MrPIC]

There's some quiet periods but these days the Stanex is fairly busy most of the day. A big problem though is people only boarding the rear couple of coaches and not moving down. When they had the 12 cars running a few months ago, the Stansted end 3 coaches were full and standing and the remaining 9 coaches were almost empty. Hopefully the new stock with walkthrough coaches will make people spread out.

 

[Mikey C]

Surely if they keep the 379s and move all the 745s to the Great Eastern Express services they'll have far too many units? And the economics of the whole fleet replacement programme (which included dumping the expensive 379s) will completely collapse?

 

[306024]

Surely if they keep the 379s and move all the 745s to the Great Eastern Express services they'll have far too many units? And the economics of the whole fleet replacement programme (which included dumping the expensive 379s) will completely collapse?

In that situation you only keep the 379s for as long as it takes to replace them with 720s that now wouldn’t be needed on the GEML. None of which solves the Hertford East problem, so they could survive a bit longer. Who knows?

 

[Wivenswold]

Surely if they keep the 379s and move all the 745s to the Great Eastern Express services they'll have far too many units? And the economics of the whole fleet replacement programme (which included dumping the expensive 379s) will completely collapse?

I think it's fair to say that there have been discussions and legal action between GA and DfT, so it's highly likely that the Franchise Terms have been or are being renegotiated. DfT have an interest in a smooth transition and happy commuters.

As for "too many units", maybe right now but there are huge housing developments planned in Essex so passengers numbers should remain healthy on the GEML. If the 745s are all on GEML then there are a few services that would benefit from longer-distance units for 90 min journeys, including on my local Clacton branch (a 755 was spotted on there recently by a forum member).

So 3 x 745/1 to compliment the 745/0 units on Norwich Services.
1 x 745/1 for the Peak Norwich stopper.
1 x 745/1 for the Harwich Boat Train.
4 x 745/1 for branded GA Express Commuter Services (2 from Ipswich/2 from Clacton maybe)
1 x 745/1 contingency

Releases 9 720/1s for Southend Victoria/Cambridge peak services. Alternatively, 6 of them could go to C2C on loan or for driver training before their own 10 car units arrive.

Edit: I should add that GA did say that they expected 720s would operate on some Stansted Express services.

Wild stabs in the dark there, of course.

 

[Scottychoo]

Hmm sounds a bit dubious tbh, I doubt the original plan was a ruse.
*edit* this post was my 379th. Illuminati confirmed.

It obviously wasn't the original plan! But that's how it has turned out. First class will go on the 379s, the 745s on the Stansteds wouldn't have had it anyway so it won't be a loss. Look out for a new livery on the 379s to match the 745/755s too.

 

[47421]

As I said on the 745 thread, 745s will not be used on the Stansteds , one of the many reasons being they won't fit through Hackney Downs platform. Rest assured the 379s won't be going anywhere

I wondered why no 745 had been to West Anglia even though they have been in England since February, assumed it might be a gaugeing issue. Mind if I ask the source for your information about Hackney Downs platform? What other issues have been identified with their potential use on West Anglia?

 

[Mikey C]

I think it's fair to say that there have been discussions and legal action between GA and DfT, so it's highly likely that the Franchise Terms have been or are being renegotiated. DfT have an interest in a smooth transition and happy commuters.

As for "too many units", maybe right now but there are huge housing developments planned in Essex so passengers numbers should remain healthy on the GEML. If the 745s are all on GEML then there are a few services that would benefit from longer-distance units for 90 min journeys, including on my local Clacton branch (a 755 was spotted on there recently by a forum member).

So 3 x 745/1 to compliment the 745/0 units on Norwich Services.
1 x 745/1 for the Peak Norwich stopper.
1 x 745/1 for the Harwich Boat Train.
4 x 745/1 for branded GA Express Commuter Services (2 from Ipswich/2 from Clacton maybe)
1 x 745/1 contingency

Releases 9 720/1s for Southend Victoria/Cambridge peak services. Alternatively, 6 of them could go to C2C on loan or for driver training before their own 10 car units arrive.

Edit: I should add that GA did say that they expected 720s would operate on some Stansted Express services.

Wild stabs in the dark there, of course.

If 745s can't fit on the West Anglia route, would 720s also struggle as they are also 23m units? Or is it specific to the Stadlers?

There might be housing developments planned, but it's hardly the intention to order units now so that in 10 years time they'll be able to cope with the extra demand. Especially when other parts of the country are crying out for more capacity...

 

[hwl]

If 745s can't fit on the West Anglia route, would 720s also struggle as they are also 23m units? Or is it specific to the Stadlers?

There might be housing developments planned, but it's hardly the intention to order units now so that in 10 years time they'll be able to cope with the extra demand. Especially when other parts of the country are crying out for more capacity...

Stadlers are (semi) articulated.
720 are 24m but normally bogied.
So the mid train overhangs on corners are very different.

 

[Wivenswold]

Can I just get this right (as it's news to me) GA have ordered 10 trains that aren't within gauge for the specific route they were intended?

If so that's got to be one of the biggest Railway Blunders in memory.

 

[LAX54]

As I said on the 745 thread, 745s will not be used on the Stansteds , one of the many reasons being they won't fit through Hackney Downs platform. Rest assured the 379s won't be going anywhere

Think they are 'cleared' for Hackney Downs, they are clear to run Liverpool Street to Kings Lynn, and they can run diesel hauled ECS from Bury St to Enfied. Clapton to Chingford, Stansted South Jct to the Airport, Hackney Downs Nth Jc to Cheshunt. (amongst many other routes)

 

[samuelmorris]

Can I just get this right (as it's news to me) GA have ordered 10 trains that aren't within gauge for the specific route they were intended?

If so that's got to be one of the biggest Railway Blunders in memory.

I doubt it's true, I'd want to see confirmation from people that work in the area before I give it too much thought. I'm prepared to believe the 379s will stay put, but I'm not buying the 745/1s not being used on StanEx just yet.

 

[Wivenswold]

I can see the 745/1s taking up the slack on GEML so more 321s can go off lease. However, the real issue are the platforms on WA, if the 379s are staying about 20 of them will be needed away from the StanEx service.

Personally I'd love the 745/1s on the East Side long term but I can't imagine they will. The Hackney thing just seems like too big a blunder to be true.

 

[samuelmorris]

If that's actually happening, I'd be all for it. I'd argue the 379s are perfectly fine for StanEx if they'd just get tidied up, and 745/1s would make nice 'premium offerings' for GEML commuters in much the same way 360s do versus 321s now. It would also negate the concerns about too few 720s having been ordered to replace the existing fleet. Nonetheless, I'll believe it when I see it. The 379s were reportedly appallingly expensive to lease, perhaps after 3 years since the franchise start and no takers due to the glut of surplus EMUs elsewhere and lack of electrification, the lessor have finally realised they need to drop their price.Still though, they aren't going to give them away, how are GA going to pay to lease 120 extra vehicles for another 5 years?

 

[Goldfish62]

If they're gonna be used on Stansted services they should probably retain the 2+1 1st class. Otherwise they will end up with something like the joke Gatwick Express passes off as "1st class".

Except 1st Class is due to be abolished on Stansted Express.

 

[VT 390]

If they're gonna be used on Stansted services they should probably retain the 2+1 1st class. Otherwise they will end up with something like the joke Gatwick Express passes off as "1st class".

But Gatwick Express only serves the Airport (with some extensions to Brighton) where as the Stansted Express also is used by passengers making shorter journeys in to London.

 

[43096]

But Gatwick Express only serves the Airport (with some extensions to Brighton) where as the Stansted Express also is used by passengers making shorter journeys in to London.

Some extensions? It’s the principal Brighton-London fast service running every half hour. As usual, the concept of an Airport Express has been forgotten: to provide a dedicated service that separates airport traffic (with its requirement for luggage space etc) from commuter flows that need to prioritise seating capacity. BR understood that, but the lessons have been forgotten by the MDTR.

 

[Alfie1014]

So 3 x 745/1 to compliment the 745/0 units on Norwich Services.
1 x 745/1 for the Peak Norwich stopper.
1 x 745/1 for the Harwich Boat Train.
4 x 745/1 for branded GA Express Commuter Services (2 from Ipswich/2 from Clacton maybe)
1 x 745/1 contingency

Releases 9 720/1s for Southend Victoria/Cambridge peak services. Alternatively, 6 of them could go to C2C on loan or for driver training before their own 10 car units arrive.

Edit: I should add that GA did say that they expected 720s would operate on some Stansted Express services.

Wild stabs in the dark there, of course.

One can but dream! That said one for the Harwich boat train may be a bit much. Last winter on a weekday I was only one of 5 pax to get off at Harwich on the morning down service!

 

[VT 390]

Some extensions? It’s the principal Brighton-London fast service running every half hour. As usual, the concept of an Airport Express has been forgotten: to provide a dedicated service that separates airport traffic (with its requirement for luggage space etc) from commuter flows that need to prioritise seating capacity. BR understood that, but the lessons have been forgotten by the MDTR.

When I said some extensions I was thinking of the half hourly service, but the point I was making was that between Gatwick and Victoria it is non stop to Victoria where as the Stansted Express (only slightly further from London) has a number of stops between the Airport and London.

 

[MrPIC]

Is it correct that Stansted Express can't charge a premium fare a la Gatwick and Heathrow because its the only train from London going there? If they wanted to run non stop with premium fares then there would have to be plenty of other normal fare trains there in addition? Slightly off topic but I heard there is great desire to run Stanex 24 hours, does anyone know anything about that? Might be better in a separate thread though.

 

[VagueShot]

It’s just one of the many joys of the privatised railway.

I have experience of the leasing business. Not trains, but heavy equipment. I was mainly calculating cash flow and mathematically, it is an interesting business, that is constantly changing and coming up with better ideas for lending money.

Four of the latest train leasing deals have involved Rock Rail. They are backed by big pension companies, who due to the latest employment laws, which have increased everybody's minimum pension contributions, have large amounts of money that needs a safe home. Aviva are pumping billions into offshore wind farms for example. From what I read, Rock Rail actually help the TOCs choose the trains and negotiate with the manufacturer.

Eversholt and Porterbrook also get involved in engineering to improve the value of their assets. Not sure about Angel Trains, but some of their trains are being improved.

I suspect too, that the three big leasing companies do a lot of networking with the TOCs to find out what is needed. Prudential's infrastructure company also bought GB Railfreight. Seems a bit strange, but they should know what they're doing!

Have Macquarie bought into a market for which they don't have the engineering resource to manage it?

It might explain, why there is no reliable information about the future of the Class 379 trains!

My preference would be to create a fleet of battery bi-modes, but I suspect that it would mean the trains being leased at a lower price, as Porterbrook's Class 350 with batteries seems to be better value.