Speculation on Class 185 future

[northwichcat]

I don't see them going to Northern I imagine they will be more expensive than other DMU's, if Northern did get them they would be a logical choice for Northern Connect services especially over the proposed 158 Connect Services.

One issue though - existing maintenance facility is in Manchester and the proposed 158 Northern Connect services are in the Newcastle area. I imagine Arriva proposed having 158s on the North East Northern Connect services because it's more efficient to have Heaton dealing with just Sprinters given it's not a huge facility.
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What all of us have forgotten is the tilting requirement for the ECML services. Mini-Pendolinos? Voyagers? The latter would be a shame since they're DEMUs, but I'm not sure the former can be guaranteed yet, and project Thor is not making a comeback.

CAF built EMUs have been touted (First proposed using CAF built trains on Birmingham to Scotland services in their WC franchise bid.) There have been suggestions 12 x CAF trains and 32 x Hitachi trains doesn't make sense but with Arriva getting CAF trains maybe a shared CAF maintenance facility in Greater Manchester could be on the cards?

 

[TheKnightWho]

CAF built EMUs have been touted (First proposed using CAF built trains on Birmingham to Scotland services in their WC franchise bid.) There have been suggestions 12 x CAF trains and 32 x Hitachi trains doesn't make sense but with Arriva getting CAF trains maybe a shared CAF maintenance facility in Greater Manchester could be on the cards?

That makes sense. I don't see the issue with a mixed fleet really - if they're likely to be operationally separate anyway then there aren't likely to be too many difficulties. Especially if, as you say, it's possible to achieve economies of scale through different means.

My main concern would be the location of the nearest IEP depot, which is Doncaster. Perhaps another ECML depot which could be shared with VTEC is the answer?

 

[edwin_m]

What all of us have forgotten is the tilting requirement for the WCML services. Mini-Pendolinos? Voyagers? The latter would be a shame since they're DEMUs, but I'm not sure the former can be guaranteed yet, and project Thor is not making a comeback.

There is no indication that the TPE bi-modes will tilt and I think it is very unlikely they will do so. They are likely to be the same design as the bi-modes, just without the diesel engines, so with the same 125mph top speed. On the WCML they will be limited to the non-tilt speed, generally 110mph or less at present although TPE may seek to get some of the straighter sections cleared for 125mph non-tilt. If this doesn't happen then journey times will be about the same as a 350 at 110mph but I think the existing timetable is based on 350 at 100mph or maybe even 185 at 100mph so there is some improvement to be had.

 

[northwichcat]

If this doesn't happen then journey times will be about the same as a 350 at 110mph but I think the existing timetable is based on 350 at 100mph or maybe even 185 at 100mph so there is some improvement to be had.

Current timetable is based on most services being timed for 100mph EMU with some timed for 100mph DMU. However, they will be re-routed back via Bolton in December 2017 so times may be revised.

 

[XCTurbostar]

23 units is a fairly large fleet size. I was thinking XC Nottingham and Stansted Airport services? Would remove the ridiculous 2 coach formations on long distance services.
XC have 29 170s though so this would mean XC would be forced to retain a mini fleet.

This would also allow there to be more 170s to go elsewhere.

Thanks,
Ross

 

[TheKnightWho]

There is no indication that the TPE bi-modes will tilt and I think it is very unlikely they will do so. They are likely to be the same design as the bi-modes, just without the diesel engines, so with the same 125mph top speed. On the WCML they will be limited to the non-tilt speed, generally 110mph or less at present although TPE may seek to get some of the straighter sections cleared for 125mph non-tilt. If this doesn't happen then journey times will be about the same as a 350 at 110mph but I think the existing timetable is based on 350 at 100mph or maybe even 185 at 100mph so there is some improvement to be had.

The procurement includes 12 125mph capable EMUs for the west-coast services. This would not make sense if they didn't tilt, and there is no way that NR are spending through the roof to ensure some very small 125 sections just for this.

 

[northwichcat]

23 units is a fairly large fleet size. I was thinking XC Nottingham and Stansted Airport services? Would remove the ridiculous 2 coach formations on long distance services.
XC have 29 170s though so this would mean XC would be forced to retain a mini fleet.

So it doesn't really make sense unless XC can secure additional Voyagers and use them to displace the remaining 170s.

 

[edwin_m]

The procurement includes 12 125mph capable EMUs for the west-coast services. This would not make sense if they didn't tilt, and there is no way that NR are spending through the roof to ensure some very small 125 sections just for this.

I disagree, as the units they are replacing don't tilt today and a microfleet of tilting trains will be very expensive.

Some sections of track could be upgraded very easily for non-tilting trains at 125mph, if they are already used by tilting trains at that speed and the curvature is not too severe for non-tilting trains to run faster. It's more a matter of nobody having needed to do it rather than it being particularly difficult.

 

[47802]

One issue though - existing maintenance facility is in Manchester and the proposed 158 Northern Connect services are in the Newcastle area. I imagine Arriva proposed having 158s on the North East Northern Connect services because it's more efficient to have Heaton dealing with just Sprinters given it's not a huge facility.
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?

Well I don't see its an issue as I don't think they will be using 185's but if they were I would have thought they would use them instead of 158's but I didn't say they would have to send them to Newcastle which could get new CAF units instead. If they were really intending to use them on Northern then I would have though it would make sense to put them on such as existing Northern Connect routes that they work on such as Barrow and then such as the Calder Valley routes. However I think 170's make more sense than 185's they may be a bit cheaper and they are compatible with 15x units, 185's lack of compatibility with 15x units would also be another reason to put them on Northern Connect Services.

 

[IanXC]

Not withstanding the various difficulties of operating 185s on Liverpool - Norwich, 23 185s would be more than enough to allow for an internal cascade within EMT to release another of their fleets.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I disagree, as the units they are replacing don't tilt today and a microfleet of tilting trains will be very expensive.

Some sections of track could be upgraded very easily for non-tilting trains at 125mph, if they are already used by tilting trains at that speed and the curvature is not too severe for non-tilting trains to run faster. It's more a matter of nobody having needed to do it rather than it being particularly difficult.

The franchise agreement is for 44 5-car 125mph stock, 12 of which are for the NW-Scotland services. Why would they have agreed that if they weren't going for tilting stock? Infrastructure developments are behind as it is, and upgrading the WCML is still likely to be political poison until HS2 is well underway. I think you're also vastly overestimating the costs of a microfleet versus infrastructure upgrades, given we're talking about the windiest part of the line here between Wigan and Glasgow.

Plus if they're going for faster stock they won't want to run it underspeed the majority of the time due to gearing, and it would make far more sense paths-wise if they ran at the same speed as the VTWC services that already use the line at that speed. (I know they don't currently, but it would make little sense to not rectify this given the choice.)

 

[northwichcat]

Not withstanding the various difficulties of operating 185s on Liverpool - Norwich, 23 185s would be more than enough to allow for an internal cascade within EMT to release another of their fleets.

There's something that's not quite adding up with the Northern diesel figures at the moment if reports that some of the DMUs which Scotrail will be released will not go to Northern are true. Therefore, I'd suggest if the 185s go to EMT then EMT would be expected to send most/all of their 156s and 158s to Northern, which would then raise further questions like would 185s get route clearance for Skegness and would some EMT services get too much capacity while others don't get enough?

As LM use 3 car 170+153 formations and have a total of 23 x 170s could LM be an option for 185s and then maybe they'll finish up with a diesel fleet of just 172s and 185s if they can secure the LO 172s as well? That would leave a larger 170 fleet up-for-grabs (by the time it can be combined with the ones Scotrail release) even though it would be a mix of 2 and 3 car units.

 

[47802]

As I have commented elsewhere, a 3 car 185 has over 100 fewer standard class seats than a pair of 158s, as used on many services north of Nottingham. I don't see anyone wanting to run 6 car 185 formations between Nottingham & Liverpool (too expensive).

You can use that logic on some current 185 services I'm sure its currently more cost effective to use 2 x 156 to Blackpool than 2 x 185's, and keep some services worked by Railbuses under Northern rather than using 150's or 156's in the new franchise but the point is we are supposed to be improving the quality in some cases and capacity, EMT are likely to need additional Diesel capacity in the new Franchise this may be an option but there are other possibilities. No doubt Daft will be eyeing them up for something.

 

[northwichcat]

You can use that logic on some current 185 services I'm sure its currently more cost effective to use 2 x 156 to Blackpool than 2 x 185's, and keep some services worked by Railbuses under Northern rather than using 150's or 156's in the new franchise but the point is we are supposed to be improving the quality in some cases and capacity, EMT are likely to need additional Diesel capacity in the new Franchise this may be an option but there are other possibilities. No doubt Daft will be eyeing them up for something.

156s are fairly cheap to operate and it can be cheaper to run 156+153 (69m) formations over 2 x Pacers (62m) or 2 x 156s (92m) over 3 x Pacers (93m.) Pacers are only cheap if loadings are low.

While 156s have a much higher density seating than 185s, there are 284 to 292 seats on a doubled up 156, on a doubled up 185, compared to 338 seats on a doubled up 185. It would also be easy to increase the number of seats on a 185 - remove First Class and reduce the number of bays and you could even remove the second toilet if they were to be concentrated on short services.

 

[edwin_m]

The franchise agreement is for 44 5-car 125mph stock, 12 of which are for the NW-Scotland services. Why would they have agreed that if they weren't going for tilting stock?

Because, as I have pointed out twice already, it's still an improvement in capacity and a slight improvement in speed compared with the existing stock. If it was going to tilt, then don't you expect First would have blown their own trumpet and mentione it? No doubt tilting trains would have been a further improvement but it would have cost a great deal more.

I think you're also vastly overestimating the costs of a microfleet versus infrastructure upgrades, given we're talking about the windiest part of the line here between Wigan and Glasgow.

I don't know how much infratructure upgrade might happen if any, but there is a long straight section through Lockerbie which could probably be upgraded without difficulty given that the Pendolinos run at 125 here already and tilt is irrelevant.

Plus if they're going for faster stock they won't want to run it underspeed the majority of the time due to gearing

Gearing is largely irrelevant for modern AC traction motors - they can sustain a much higher torque at the top end of the speed range than a DC motor can.

it would make far more sense paths-wise if they ran at the same speed as the VTWC services that already use the line at that speed. (I know they don't currently, but it would make little sense to not rectify this given the choice.)

They will never be able to follow the Pendolinos block-on-block because they make more stops. There would be some capacity benefit from following more closely, but probably not much, and if it was considered necessary DfT would have put it in the ITT. Presumably they didn't, so if First had spent a lot more money on a tilting train then it wouldn't have helped them in the scoring of the bids and they would risk being undercut by another bidder.

 

[southern442]

What about if we give them to SWT for their non-electrified routes? They have a higher top speed than the 159's, and it would keep the fleet uniform (Like Southern and their 171/377 arrangement).

Then again I doubt many people will be happy as the 159's are excellent trains that still have plenty of years in them.

 

[darloscott]

Just done a quick calculation and I reckon you need 19 units to run Norwich - Liverpool if doubled west of Nottingham. 12 if they were to run the same length all the way through.

 

[Iskra]

What about if we give them to SWT for their non-electrified routes? They have a higher top speed than the 159's, and it would keep the fleet uniform (Like Southern and their 171/377 arrangement).

Then again I doubt many people will be happy as the 159's are excellent trains that still have plenty of years in them.

It would be a per-unit capacity decrease though.

 

[edwin_m]

Just done a quick calculation and I reckon you need 19 units to run Norwich - Liverpool if doubled west of Nottingham. 12 if they were to run the same length all the way through.

Mentioned numerous times elsewhere but not on this thread I think, that east of Peterborough 185s would be subject to crippling speed restrictions that would make it impossible for them to keep to schedule. 185s are too heavy to be allowed to use the Sprinter differential speed restrictions like 158s and 170s.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Mentioned numerous times elsewhere but not on this thread I think, that east of Peterborough 185s would be subject to crippling speed restrictions that would make it impossible for them to keep to schedule. 185s are too heavy to be allowed to use the Sprinter differential speed restrictions like 158s and 170s.

Indeed so. The use of Class 185 units on those lines east of Peterborough are not one that they can take advantage of what the Class 185 units can offer on the cross-Pennine area routes.

 

[The Ham]

It would be a per-unit capacity decrease though.

Of about 27 seats per unit, which when run as a 9 coach train could be a drop of 81 seats.

It could be possible to have 185's to be used by some of the off peak services so as to release more 159's to be used during the peaks.

The only reason you may do it is as a unit swap so that SWT ends up with more 2 coach 158's in exchange for some of their 159's to enable more peak hour services to run as 10 coach trains. In doing so there would then be a need for extra units to cover for some of the capacity loss from the "shortening" of the SWT 15x fleet, this could then be covered by the 185's.

It would also allow services, such as the Salisbury 6 (Romsey, Southampton, Salisbury), to be run by 185's freeing up 158's to be used for London services and/or move elsewhere.

However, if Exeter services are run by 10 coach trains with 6 coaches (a pair of 159's) going beyond Salisbury and 4 coaches (a pair of 158's) turning around to form the next train back (or the service to Bristol). There wouldn't be the need for that many extra 158's, as most of the 158's would be limited to running between Waterloo and Salisbury.

Then the rest of the services could be run as 10 coach 158's/159's or 9 coach 185's (timetabled to be on services which are not quite as busy) with some 185's being used to run the Salisbury 6 services (possibly on an increased frequency of 2tph, which may only need 5 units rather than the current 3 if turnarounds are made a bit tighter).

Although that may be until circa 2025 (plus or minus a few years) when the following franchise could start to use EMU's (depending on electrification) for services (at least east and south of Salisbury).

Maintenance shouldn't be too much of a problem with SWT as the 185's should share quite a bit of kit as the 444's and 450's so shouldn't be too much extra work to maintain them.

However it could cause some problems with confusion between 158's and 185's if people aren't being careful with what they write!

 

[Surreyman]

It has been stated that TPE will retain either 28 or 29 class 185s for future use.
What is going to the future use of the remaining 22/23?

These units are maintained at a dedicated Siemens owned site in Manchester with a smaller facility in York, not sure what the long term agreements are re Siemens 185 maintenance??

Anyone know anything/Have any thoughts (The new Northern Franchise documentation doesn't appear to make any reference to Northern using these units).

 

[alexl92]

The most common suggestion I've heard on here is that Northern will get them. Don't know if that's rooted in any fact though.

 

[47802]

Well there's already been a fair amount of pointless discussion on this from the so called armchair experts, at this point we don't know where they are going and they wont be moving for a few years yet anyway

 

[PHILIPE]

Well there's already been a fair amount of pointless discussion on this from the so called armchair experts, at this point we don't know where they are going and they wont be moving for a few years yet anyway

I've just informed the Mods there is already a thread on this topic and have suggested merging.

 

[Clarence Yard]

They (22) haven't currently got a home after March 2020. They weren't allowed to be bid into Northern so weren't in their plans.

 

[jw]

Plenty of upcoming franchise competitions would likely be grateful for modern, capable DMU stock - is there a weight restriction with the 185s that might prohibit their use in other areas? I seem to recall they are quite heavy relative to other DMUs.

 

[gimmea50anyday]

Internally 185's have been mooted for transfer to Northern Connect services. (Basically Transpennine Express work rebadged by Northern!) These will most likely be scarborough-blackpool, calder valley and barrow/Windermere work, also Liverpool-manchester cheshire lines. Basically where 185's work now. Future transfers could see carlisle-newcastle-middlesbrough go over to 185's as electrification progresses along with leeds-sheffield express and Harrogate workings again pre-electrification. They will probably oust 158's which themselves will then take over from 150/156 workings. There will be demand for these units for some considerable time yet despite their route restrictions!

 

[PHILIPE]

If that be so, let them go to Northern to replace their very own "chronically unreliable" Class 319 units.

They'd hardly go to replace EMUs. Northern, in time could have more EMUs cascaded to them.

 

[Camden]

Not sure that would all add up, given the Northern rolling stock order recently announced.