Southern railway rolling stock replacement for withdraw classes 455s and 313s

[Sutton in Ant]

I wonder if Southern Railway are going to bring in any additional rolling stock to replace the withdrawn 455s and 313. That is over 50 that has been withdrawn from Southern Railway and if Southern railway are planning to replace the withdrawn rolling stock as it is badly needed on the Southern network?

 

[JonathanH]

The rumours to date have been:
* 377/5s from Southeastern - it seems clear that that isn't happening as the influx of 707s at Southeastern has been used to reduce the Networker fleet.
* 379s to Great Northern (or GWR) to displace 387s to Southern - it isn't clear that is happening although the 379s have been moved to Worksop and have occasional visits to the wires at Doncaster
* any influx of 387s as above allowing part of the 377 fleet to displace further Networkers at Southeastern.

From the outside, there isn't any obvious sign that anything is happening on increasing the Southern fleet, although there was a tender for 21, or 30, units at Great Northern for which the outcome is unknown - https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/great-northern-fleet-tender.247756/

Is overcrowding now worse than it was prior to March 2020? In theory, all Southern have done is reduce their trainfleet by 65 units to match the new level of demand and are gradually recasting the service to make best use of the available rolling stock where it is needed.

The fact that demand used to require a trainfleet that was 20% larger is arguably neither here nor there if demand is within the specified parameters for overcrowding.

I would have thought that most people are getting used to the level of service in place now.

 

[Snow1964]

The problem Southern have (as do various other London area commute operators) is that demand has generally returned Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. (But not Monday & Friday).

So depending on choice of statistician, at macro level, looks like around 30% of demand has vanished, and DfT seem to treat this as can make do with less rolling stock.

There are two separate questions, one is should Monday & Friday be treated more like Saturday for timetables and tickets (a debate not for this thread), and the second is how do you provide the extra trains for the busy 3 midweek days.

You don't need to be a genius to work out that if a train only does one up rush hour service, sits in a carriage siding near London during the day, then does a return, and on Thursday evening is parked for 4 days, it is not getting heavy utilisation. The Southern Railway recognised this decades ago and used to keep some older stock for full length peak hour extras between normal services.

So realistically Southern needs some older EMUs for peak hour extras, (because never going to justify cost of renting newer trains for low utilisation) when train is needed for 6-10 hours a week, rather than nearer 60-100 hours a week.

So obvious choice is some 25-30 year old EMUs spare from other lines, except you will struggle to find any built 1993-1998. Bit too late for networkers, bit too early for new generation trains. If go older is it economic to overhaul some stored networkers, if go bit younger get 357, 375, 458

The networkers never really worked on Southern, but maybe some could be revitalised (although there is risk lots of expensive work would be needed, and delays to 166s refurbs suggests extra work is likely). Some 357s might be released by C2C if they take on some surplus Anglia 720s, but possibly can't be used on 3rd rail. 375s (oldest is now 23 years old) don't work as not spare, 458s might do (although have had troubled existence)

Anything newer eg 379s displacing 378s is probably not cost effective unless lease rates fall

 

[JonathanH]

The networkers never really worked on Southern

I suspect that the DfT focus could well be on trying to remove further Networkers on Southeastern, rather than putting more stock on Southern. It would be interesting to see whether any 379 use on Great Northern is part of a 379 > 387 to Southern > 377 to Southeastern > Networker to bin cascade with no net increase in vehicles at either Great Northern or Southern at all.

Networkers or 319s to Southern to tick the 'old stock' box seems very unlikely.

 

[Turtle]

I suspect that the DfT focus could well be on trying to remove further Networkers on Southeastern, rather than putting more stock on Southern. It would be interesting to see whether any 379 use on Great Northern is part of a 379 > 387 to Southern > 377 to Southeastern > Networker to bin cascade with no net increase in vehicles at either Great Northern or Southern at all.

Networkers or 319s to Southern to tick the 'old stock' box seems very unlikely.

The argument against DfT control in a nutshell.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

The 377/5 are on sublease to Southeastern Railway and I wonder if Southern Railway would want the 377/5s in the future but I do understand the withdrawal of the class 455s and the 313s as they are at and over 40 years of age.

377/5s are contracted to GTR till 31st March 2028 like all of the 377s that are under contract with GTR. I am wondering if GTR Great Northern is having any luck in obtaining extra rolling stock and if they are negotiating with Akiem about leasing out the 379s.

SouthEastern Railway has put in a tender for new rolling stock to be in service for October 2027. In my view. The new rolling stock will replace the networkers that are with SouthEastern Railway and not only that? SouthEastern has taken over the lease of class 707s from SouthWestern Railway and with the 707s. SouthEastern Railway in my view has enough rolling stock that if they were to lose the 377s. They could cope okay with the other rolling stock and with the permission of the DFT? Southern Railway would get back the remaining 377s.

The DFT will need to look at the amount of people who are using the services that are being provided by Southern and SouthEastern railways to see who needs the rolling stock more and to eliminate the overcrowding on these services.

 

[Energy]

The 377/5 are on sublease to Southeastern Railway and I wonder if Southern Railway would want the 377/5s in the future but I do understand the withdrawal of the class 455s and the 313s as they are at and over 40 years of age.

Its the DfT's decision now. Personally, I wouldn't expect any 377s to return so Southern from SE.

I am wondering if GTR Great Northern is having any luck in obtaining extra rolling stock and if they are negotiating with Akiem about leasing out the 379s.

GTR has a tender out for 24-30 4-car 25kv units so I'd expect them to be negotiating with Akiem. If the 379s make their way to Great Northern expect the 387s to move to Southern, either as a capacity increase or release 377s to SE (as @JonathanH has said).

Expect the DfT to want to eek out savings (like moving more maintenance to Friday-Monday when there are fewer commuters). Southern seems to cope better nowadays than when cuts in rolling stock length started happening.

 

[LudwigTails]

Though. I heard the plans for hiring out Class 379s to GN was not happening due to leasing costs. I don’t know is this true and I’d like a confirmation on that, if I am wrong do correct. And reading what was speculated, if the 377/5s can’t be moved as the 707 had covered the 465s runs? so would it be in due time that some trains from either SouthEastern is going to let go of the 377/5s for Southern? Or unless what i said about the Class 379 for GN is wrong. It’s the 387/1s who will go to Southern? If either one comes to fruition?

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Though. I heard the plans for hiring out Class 379s to GN was not happening due to leasing costs. I don’t know is this true and I’d like a confirmation on that, if I am wrong do correct. And reading what was speculated, if the 377/5s can’t be moved as the 707 had covered the 465s runs? so would it be in due time that some trains from either SouthEastern is going to let go of the 377/5s for Southern? Or unless what i said about the Class 379 for GN is wrong. It’s the 387/1s who will go to Southern? If either one comes to fruition?

You are correct about the 377/5s. They are staying with Southeastern railway.

 

[JonathanH]

I heard the plans for hiring out Class 379s to GN was not happening due to leasing costs. I don’t know is this true and I’d like a confirmation on that, if I am wrong do correct.

There was an update in this post in the 'Future of class 379' thread which suggested that 379s are on a retainer contract with GTR, but not needed yet.
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/future-of-class-379.163185/page-30#post-6498270

I suspect people just need to be patient and let this unfold when the time is right.

 

[AzureOtsu]

get the best condition withdrawn networkers and stick them on the coastway

 

[LudwigTails]

get the best condition networkers and stick them on the coastway

I don’t think the DfT would like that?

And this is more of a stretch and it seems to be a very slim possibility that will happen cuz of the DfT. Unless Southern could take on some Class 730s (they are like successors of the Electrostar family and more desirably to be 4 car with 3rd rail shoe.) to add to their fleet and give additional capacity so that 387/1 can still stay with GN and SouthEastern can take their time with /5s. But again, I don’t think that could be a possibility.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

When GTR did a tender for 30 4-car rolling stock. They put down the contract to begin May 2024.

 

[renegademaster]

It would be a bit silly after scrapping all your own but swr 455s will be free soonish

 

[JonathanH]

It would be a bit silly after scrapping all your own but swr 455s will be free soonish

Not much use to Southern, given competency on 455s will now have elapsed.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

It would be a bit silly after scrapping all your own but swr 455s will be free soonish

I really doubt that SWR 455s would go to GTR Southern Railway. In my view. It will go to be scrapped like the Southern 455s