The railways are merely symptomatic of the inescapable fact that there simply hasn't been enough investment in England's infrastructure in the past eleven years.
And I'll tell you why.
Since 1997, one man has controlled almost every aspect of public expenditure in England. Although he was "Number Two" for ten years, he cleverly transformed The Treasury, giving it the most power it has ever had to veto the spending plans of all other government departments. And having inherited a privatised railway (and, to this day, continuing to privatise public assets, with the notable exception of our failing banks!), he turned it into a micro-managed service, with the government specifying it down to the smallest detail. The same happens with our roads (my own County Council has enough cash to meet its stautory responsibilities, but little discretionary spending for such things as railways, roads and footpaths).
Now, if one man has been able to contrive to have so much power, surely his master stroke has been to do it in such a way that, while he has absolute power, he can claim that other people have the responsibility. The Bank of England is independent; the TOCs, FOCs, ROSCOs and Network Rail carry the can with the consumer, while having no option other than to do the Treasury's bidding, as transmitted to them via the DfT. Next, our part-nationalised banks will be having their lending policies reviewed by the FSA and their shareholders - er, the government. If you want a loan, you'd better ask Gordon to approve it!
And be careful not to be too critical in public, either. ISPs can be required to hand over records of your internet usage, if someone thinks what you're saying might in some way help a terrorist.
So, if you were in his shoes, and had absolute power, what would you do? You'd want to hold on to it! So, how will he do that? Firstly, he'll look after the seat of his own pants - or, rather, his own constituents - first. No surprise, then, that as there are more Scots in the cabinet than ever before, the Celtic Fringe does rather well. Next, it's marginal constituencies - those that The Party must retain or win to hold on to power in eighteen months' time. And where are they? The south east - the Party can rely on much of the north and Midlands to vote for them, whatever happens.
Hopefully, more and more people are waking up to the truth of the so-called "economic miracle" that we were sold at the last two general elections. It wasn't miraculous at all - it was fuelled by our own debt, a massive consumer spending spree, partly subsidised by cheap mortgages for everyone (encouraged by the politicians - funny, though, how it's the bankers who are carrying the can, when it was politicians on both sides of the Atlantic who egged them on). And if there truly had been a time of plenty, then the excess taxation that the government has been able to collect as a result was simply squandered on the politicians' own pet projects - including two wars - while manufacturing, farming and transport - three of the most basic necessities for a thriving economy - have been left to rot.
If that's an "economic miracle", I'd rather make a pact with the devil!
Let's face it, there is nothing a government can do to get us out of a recession - especially one which their own policies have contributed to with such devastating consequences! No government has ever "created" a single job - they simply raise and spend taxes. It's commerce and industry that truly creates jobs, by providing goods and services that people want. When governments micro-manage, they stifle creativity and entrepreneurship.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the root of the problem that the railways face. And the way that things are organised at the moment, there's little anyone can do about it. Network Rail has its budget micro-managed, resulting in very little "new" railway, and an awful lot of "make do and mend" maintenance (without compromising safety). The TOCs are micro-managed, so there's little incentive for creativity and entrepreneurship, especially as some of them have crippling financial levies to meet. The ROSCOs, despite having been the target of a venomous referral to the Competition Commission, came out of it as the "good guys", even though the system they operate within simply doesn't work - after all, if you're lucky enough to have a mortgage, you can have it over a 25-year term, whereas TOCs, needing to finance their trains, can only look forward to a seven to ten year franchise, despite needing to replace assets with a life expectancy of nearer 30.
The football analogy in an earlier posting is a good one - you need to invest to earn promotion to a higher division; you need to invest to win the Premier League; you need to invest to stay at the top. Once you stop, you're on a slippery slope, and when you reach the bottom of the Conference, you can't find the money to start again.
So where does all that leave us? The present government has no option other than to borrow money to invest in infrastructure projects, not just across transport, but across health, education and all the public services. Unfortunately, in this country we just can't move quickly enough for this alone to get us out of the recession - it's probably going to be about two years before the full effect is felt on the economy. Sadly for the present government,this will probably come just too late to win them the next general election. This will leave an incoming government with massive spending commitments it can't get out of; happily, this will be alleviated by the fact that the recession will be almost over, as new businesses, created by entrepreneurial individuals, will have sprung up to meet new consumer demands. At the same time, some of the older industries will be reviving - think about it: we can't put off replacing our cars forever! And there'll also be positive economic benefits from the 2012 Olympics, too.
Don't get me wrong. We're going to be paying the price of Gordon's "economic miracle" for a generation, as the country will have to spread repaying it's national debt over 15 or 25 years (just like we did after the second world war). The railways should, by about 2015, look and feel much more modern, but there's the rub - by only investing big every 18 to 25 years, the need for the next massive spend will be roughly in line with the economic cycle - ie., just as we're facing THE NEXT recession, all our trains will be wearing out!
There ARE "green shoots" of a recovery out there. Even if the economy shrinks by 4%, there's still 96% of it working! In fact, you could argue that there's never been a better time to start a new, small business - because the only way is up!
So, let's raise a glass to The Transport Professionals, and wish them all the luck in the world. Because, just as quickly as the recession has turned the transport "tap" off, the forthcoming upturn will want it turning back on again!
Regards
eezypeazy
