Sleeper Network Growth

[Bald Rick]

Yes and that's partly my point. An improved offer would tempt an increase in travel. At present, a holiday in the Scottish Highlands from Plymouth seems difficult unless prepared to fly. Similarly for Scots who may want a bit of Devon / Cornish sun they are no doubt deterred from making such a trip as many people do not want the hassle of flying, and look at the long journey time on XC and associated high cost.

But even if the train was an hour and a half quicker, it’s still a bloody long 8-9hr journey from Penzance to the central belt. That’s not going to cause many people to switch.

 

[6Gman]

I would expect that a Glasgow - Manchester - Birmingham - Bristol - Devon - Cornwall service running every other night say May - September would do OK. The service could run down one night and then back the next to save the need for additional stock.

The problem with a service like that is that somebody would be boarding/ alighting at 3 in the morning or some equally unpalatable time.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The problem with a service like that is that somebody would be boarding/ alighting at 3 in the morning or some equally unpalatable time.

There is a way around that - I have been on a service that did it. It requires bay platforms with a shore supply and loads of shunting moves so I would argue uneconomic and extremely unlikely to happen.

 

[popeter45]

There is a way around that - I have been on a service that did it. It requires bay platforms with a shore supply and loads of shunting moves so I would argue uneconomic and extremely unlikely to happen.

or DEMU/BEMU's so could self shunt
just moves onto a thru line and rest of units come up behind and couple up

 

[The Ham]

I think that’s rather optimistic. From memory they rarely carried more than a couple of dozen passengers a night (in the beds), and that was when the Navy were sending staff on them from Devonport to Faslane etc. @paul1609 will know better than I do.

I suspected as much, as that circa 100,000 drop also is likely to have included some day travellers who now fly.

As I highlighted, HS2 would reduce demand for such a service further.

 

[irish_rail]

But even if the train was an hour and a half quicker, it’s still a bloody long 8-9hr journey from Penzance to the central belt. That’s not going to cause many people to switch.

True but from Exeter, it'd be closer to 6 hours and Plymouth 7 hours. Not exactly quick, but compared with flying and all the hassle at the airport id say more attractive than the current journey via the convuluted ECML route.

 

[paul1609]

I think that’s rather optimistic. From memory they rarely carried more than a couple of dozen passengers a night (in the beds), and that was when the Navy were sending staff on them from Devonport to Faslane etc. @paul1609 will know better than I do.

When I first joined the Navy in 1990 the Plymouth to Edinburgh sleeper used to be busy with naval ratings going from the training bases in the Devonport Area to HMS Cochrane (Rosyth). There also used to be dockyard workers between the two dockyards and MOD civil servants. There was as far as I recall next to no other traffic. This was probably just as well as it was somewhat of a "party" train especially around leave periods.
Basically at this time the dockyards were in a transition to privatisation and the government decided that Rosyth would close as a Naval base and that the Type 42 destroyers based there would relocate to Portsmouth. HMS Cochrane quickly ran down and the sleepers traffic vanished. I think the sleeper only lasted until the next timetable change after one on the major phases of run down. HMS Cochrane finally closed in 1996 and has been redeveloped as an industrial park and that part of the dockyard is now the cruise ship terminal.
I was also based at Faslane at various times since 1992 but in that time there has never been a significant rail traffic to the base from anywhere in England. It has always been much more focussed on air travel in fact Glasgow Airport was a Naval Base HMS Sanderling until Glasgow City took it over in the 1960s. i think the Southampton to Glasgow flights to this day are heavily reliant on MOD (and related) traffic.

 

[Kingston Dan]

Given that Scotland to SW (pre Covid) was circa 85,000 and mid 90's it was about 185,000, the sleepers probably carried 100,000 a year.

Over a 7 day a week service, at best that's 140 passengers each way on average, and so hardly the sorts of numbers which make for a viable service.

In 2019 just under 400,000 people flew Edinburgh to Bristol (the seventh busiest route from Edinburgh and third from Bristol), over 300,000 flew Glasgow-Bristol (sixth and seventh busiest services respectively) and just under 100,000 flew from Glasgow and Edinburgh combined to Exeter. Obviously Covid will have reduced the numbers but the best part of a million passengers from central Scotland to SW England isn't an insignificant market. Having a late evening/early morning train in probably any other country in Europe for a market that size would be part of the transport mix.

 

[ShadowKnight]

Related to this, perhaps there is scope for all night seated trains? There are routes such as Thameslink (and I think tpe between Manchester and Leeds) that run 24hrs a day 5-6 days a week.

What scope is there on expanding 24hr/overnight seated trains at a medium/long distance. Of which it could be a litmus test of the viability of sleepers for a given route.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What scope is there on expanding 24hr/overnight seated trains at a medium/long distance. Of which it could be a litmus test of the viability of sleepers for a given route.

The south WCML is near enough 24 hour too, there is one unit (the one that works the 0134 ish to MKC and the return 0330 ish) that doesn't go to bed.

I don't think there's much scope for overnight seated InterCity services, though. The limited market for sitting up all night or sleeping in a seat is provided for by the coaches at much lower cost.

I do think we could do with earlier first and later last trains on some IC routes though. For instance you need to go to about 2330 if you're going to see a show then head home, even 2300 is a bit early.

 

[WAB]

The south WCML is near enough 24 hour too, there is one unit (the one that works the 0134 ish to MKC and the return 0330 ish) that doesn't go to bed.

I don't think there's much scope for overnight seated InterCity services, though. The limited market for sitting up all night or sleeping in a seat is provided for by the coaches at much lower cost.

I do think we could do with earlier first and later last trains on some IC routes though. For instance you need to go to about 2330 if you're going to see a show then head home, even 2300 is a bit early.

The last service from Leeds to Birmingham leaves at 2111 (and is the last southbound XC); and northwards, the last XC at is 2008. A train an hour later in each direction would arrive just after midnight, and enable staying on in the city in the evening a fair while longer. I'm sure there are more examples elsewhere too. Would have far more of an impact than dead-of-night seated InterCities, or sleepers from one esoteric end of the country to the other.

 

[Falcon1200]

SW to Scotland Air Market, which, sadly is the way most people travel between the two areas owing to the slow train service and high ticket prices.

Given the cost of operating sleeper services ticket prices would surely have to be higher than those for much simpler day trains?

 

[irish_rail]

Given the cost of operating sleeper services ticket prices would surely have to be higher than those for much simpler day trains?

Sorry I was going off topic a little and arguing for some daytime trains via the WCML, not a sleeper .

 

[12LDA28C]

I don't think there's much scope for overnight seated InterCity services, though. The limited market for sitting up all night or sleeping in a seat is provided for by the coaches at much lower cost.

And yet isn't that exactly what some of the 'Nightrider' services were in the 1980s? Although maybe the growth of overnight coach services has killed off the equivalent rail market as you say.

 

[paul1609]

In 2019 just under 400,000 people flew Edinburgh to Bristol (the seventh busiest route from Edinburgh and third from Bristol), over 300,000 flew Glasgow-Bristol (sixth and seventh busiest services respectively) and just under 100,000 flew from Glasgow and Edinburgh combined to Exeter. Obviously Covid will have reduced the numbers but the best part of a million passengers from central Scotland to SW England isn't an insignificant market. Having a late evening/early morning train in probably any other country in Europe for a market that size would be part of the transport mix.

An awful lot of the Bristol/ Exeter to Scotland Central Belt air traffic actually originates in the Bristol/Exeter/South Wales/Dorset Coast areas. Theres big flows from MOD Abbeywood, Rolls Royce, and other engineering firms to BAE at Scotstoun, Babcocks at Faslane and Rosyth. Even outside of the Defence Industry a lot of companies service the central belt by flying a service engineer a couple of days a week up from the south. Its not uncommon for check in at Bristol to be a queue of toolboxes waiting for clearance and for the same toolboxes to be present in the car hire at the destination.
This business is never going to switch to rail because of the uncompetitive journey times. An overnight sleeper is a dead duck because most of these people are paid by the hour when travelling that's the same whether they are on a sleeper asleep or in an early morning or late night flight.

 

[Ken H]

An awful lot of the Bristol/ Exeter to Scotland Central Belt air traffic actually originates in the Bristol/Exeter/South Wales/Dorset Coast areas. Theres big flows from MOD Abbeywood, Rolls Royce, and other engineering firms to BAE at Scotstoun, Babcocks at Faslane and Rosyth. Even outside of the Defence Industry a lot of companies service the central belt by flying a service engineer a couple of days a week up from the south. Its not uncommon for check in at Bristol to be a queue of toolboxes waiting for clearance and for the same toolboxes to be present in the car hire at the destination.
This business is never going to switch to rail because of the uncompetitive journey times. An overnight sleeper is a dead duck because most of these people are paid by the hour when travelling that's the same whether they are on a sleeper asleep or in an early morning or late night flight.

Maybe a Glasgow - Exeter operation could work. Cut out the costs of trailing down the peninsula. But could you do it with a Hitachi bi-mode with a 4am start and get to Exeter in time to get early trains to to the West?

 

[Bletchleyite]

And yet isn't that exactly what some of the 'Nightrider' services were in the 1980s? Although maybe the growth of overnight coach services has killed off the equivalent rail market as you say.

Plus budget airlines on the Scotland-London route. And weren't they cheap to do because they were coaches tagged onto newspaper trains?

 

[irish_rail]

Maybe a Glasgow - Exeter operation could work. Cut out the costs of trailing down the peninsula. But could you do it with a Hitachi bi-mode with a 4am start and get to Exeter in time to get early trains to to the West?

You wouldn't leave Plymouth out as the south wests biggest city and don't forget Laira depot for maintenance purposes.

 

[paul1609]

Maybe a Glasgow - Exeter operation could work. Cut out the costs of trailing down the peninsula. But could you do it with a Hitachi bi-mode with a 4am start and get to Exeter in time to get early trains to to the West?

Think about it in reverse. So you're leaving home at 2 to 3 am to drive to catch a train at 04.00 at Bristol Parkway by the time you've picked up a hire car at Glasgow or Edinburgh what time will you arrive at Faslane or Dundee or Aberdeen to the customer? How much work are you going to do that day before you check in to your hotel? Most of the existing air traffic can't be transferred to rail.if legislation was to force the issue it would have a macro effect on the business long term rather than forcing a mode shift.

 

[12LDA28C]

Plus budget airlines on the Scotland-London route. And weren't they cheap to do because they were coaches tagged onto newspaper trains?

Not all of them as I recall. Wasn't there a complete rake of FOs used at one stage, with some being declassified?

 

[Cheshire Scot]

And weren't they cheap to do because they were coaches tagged onto newspaper trains?

An AngloScottish overnight train would convey typically 2 BGs conveying mail, premium parcels and newspapers which would certainly contribute something to the revenue line, but e.g. the Manchester to Glasgow newspaper train ran several hours ahead of any of the overnight passenger trains to provide an arrival early enough to enable distribution of newspapers around Scotland.

 

[stuu]

Maybe a Glasgow - Exeter operation could work. Cut out the costs of trailing down the peninsula. But could you do it with a Hitachi bi-mode with a 4am start and get to Exeter in time to get early trains to to the West?

A 4am start in Glasgow gets you on a plane at 6 something and on the ground in the South West an hour later. A 5am train will be somewhere near Wigan. The time saving is so large that trains cannot compete, at least not until the environmental impacts are properly costed.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Since the demise of Flybe (Mk 1), only Loganair operate from the Central Belt to Exeter, and only twice weekly in winter, which probably says something about the demand. Logonair aren't renowned for their cheap fares either, but neither is XC! The Edinburgh to Newquay service is summer only, and Plymouth airport has long gone, closing in 2011. Rail does have a role to play, but it is, after all, motorway all the way from Glasgow to Exeter.

 

[The Prisoner]

My OP related to the fact that many in Europe are switching to sleepers which are slower and in some cases more expensive for the benefits to the environment over short haul air travel. I honestly believe that people would switch if there was any degree of a service. That has to be at least one of the factors behind the growth in sleepers on mainland Europe.

I have never been on an overnight coach, and judging by the reviews on YouTube never will, and not everyone wants to go through the hassle of flying, driving or a daytime service.

 

[paul1609]

Since the demise of Flybe (Mk 1), only Loganair operate from the Central Belt to Exeter, and only twice weekly in winter, which probably says something about the demand. Logonair aren't renowned for their cheap fares either, but neither is XC! The Edinburgh to Newquay service is summer only, and Plymouth airport has long gone, closing in 2011. Rail does have a role to play, but it is, after all, motorway all the way from Glasgow to Exeter.

Exeter is more about its proximity by car to Bristol Airport where easyJet even post covid have up to 6 x A319 etc to the central belt per day.
Bristol Airport Is just over an hour from Exeter, 2 hours from Plymouth.
Exeter was only really a thing because it had traditionally been the base of Flybe. Plymouth was only really a airport suitable for small prop aircraft because the runway was hemmed in by housing. Even if it was raining it was not unusual to be diverted to newquay and coached back to Plymouth.

 

[The Ham]

A 4am start in Glasgow gets you on a plane at 6 something and on the ground in the South West an hour later. A 5am train will be somewhere near Wigan. The time saving is so large that trains cannot compete, at least not until the environmental impacts are properly costed.

A direct train Glasgow to Bristol would take 5:30, with the need to be at the station (being pessimistic) 10 minutes before departure.

After HS2, even going via Old Oak Common, there's potential for this to be reduced to circa 5 hours which could be about +2 hours on flying (which sounds crazy, but it could be the quickest way, assuming a reasonable connection time) and potentially puts Exeter about the 5:30 journey time vs the circa 4 hours for flying from Bristol (with a typical 90 minutes drive from Exeter to the airport at Bristol).

Where rail could aid with reducing overall journey times (a little) is where it could start/end closer to where someone is going, so not needing to go through the process of hiring a car (instead using a taxi for the last mile or so from the station).

Other factors may come into play; service frequency would be higher with rail, like if there's a delay rail parts pays out after a much shorter delay than flying.

With many more businesses being keen to be shown to show their green credentials and being carbon neutral, it could well be that rail does start to make inroads into flight usage.

However sleepers aren't likely to make much difference on that and any inroads are likely to be limited unless there's significant further reductions in journey times (HS rail further north than HS2, HS rail West from London and/or HS rail Southwest from Birmingham).

 

[Kingston Dan]

An awful lot of the Bristol/ Exeter to Scotland Central Belt air traffic actually originates in the Bristol/Exeter/South Wales/Dorset Coast areas. Theres big flows from MOD Abbeywood, Rolls Royce, and other engineering firms to BAE at Scotstoun, Babcocks at Faslane and Rosyth. Even outside of the Defence Industry a lot of companies service the central belt by flying a service engineer a couple of days a week up from the south. Its not uncommon for check in at Bristol to be a queue of toolboxes waiting for clearance and for the same toolboxes to be present in the car hire at the destination.
This business is never going to switch to rail because of the uncompetitive journey times. An overnight sleeper is a dead duck because most of these people are paid by the hour when travelling that's the same whether they are on a sleeper asleep or in an early morning or late night flight.

Of course the plural of anecdote is not data.

 

[30907]

Just looking on the OBB Nightjet site and they have six new routes for 2023. They can't be running at a loss to be introducing all these new routes?

Five of the six are extensions of existing services (coincidentally, the less well patronised ones).
To be fair they have split a service from Switzerland to Germany into two throughout, allowing CD to run the sixth, a 3-coach Zurich-Prague train.

Basically at the moment it's making best use of resources, though in a year or two Nightjet should have some new (reintroduced, in fact) routes.

 

[paul1609]

Of course the plural of anecdote is not data.

Of course but its an anecdote reply to the anecdote that there is more demand for Scotland to the SW train services when the reality is that there's not because of uncompetitive journey times, along with the fact that in 2023 Glaswegians etc are more likely to go to Tenerife for their holidays than Torbay.

 

[Kingston Dan]

Of course but its an anecdote reply to the anecdote that there is more demand for Scotland to the SW train services when the reality is that there's not because of uncompetitive journey times, along with the fact that in 2023 Glaswegians etc are more likely to go to Tenerife for their holidays than Torbay.

My point is there's almost a million journeys by plane from the Central Belt to the SW each year so there is a market - but as you say the uncompetitive timing of train travel means the airlines have the market cornered. The question is would an overnight train (which negates the uncompetitive journey time) have enough potential custom to survive? Obviously speeding up the train times to 3.5/4 hours would grab a chunk of the market but without HS3 that's not going to happen.