Should We Leave the EU?

[dosxuk]

I don't think that's really a fair criticism, of course they don't know yet - there will probably be at least hundreds of people involved in years of talks and negotiations to actually put together a complete, concrete, plan.

You really can't expect the politicians to magic something like this up, there isn't even a broad consensus about whether to join the EEA or not, so anything more specific would be completely pointless at this stage.

So if Leave win, we get years of turmoil and uncertainty, both great things for a country's economy, and may end up either standing alone with the borders closed, or all but in the EU with us in their trade zone, paying them millions a week and co-opted into schengen with even less border control like the Scandinavian countries. It's less a remain / leave vote, more a stability / chaos vote.

 

[anme]

It doesn't matter in the slightest what anyone on here wants.

It's In/Out.

If it's out than we go to a negotiated withdrawal (as if).

Nowhere is there a section for those who want to be Norway, a corner over there for Switzerland, oh and hands up for Canada.

You Quislings aren't half making a binary question look complicated.

I know exactly what the referendum question is. My question is what do you think SHOULD happen? Surely that is easy enough to understand?

After a "leave" vote, the question of whether the UK wants to be Canada or Norway or Switzerland or Zimbabwe or whatever WILL be asked. That might be less than two weeks away from us. I am asking the "leavers" now.
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I don't think that's really a fair criticism, of course they don't know yet - there will probably be at least hundreds of people involved in years of talks and negotiations to actually put together a complete, concrete, plan.

You really can't expect the politicians to magic something like this up, there isn't even a broad consensus about whether to join the EEA or not, so anything more specific would be completely pointless at this stage.

It is absolutely a fair question! These negotiators will go into talks with an aim in mind. What is it to be? How can anyone know if the alternative to EU member is better or worse without having a view on what it would be?!

There is a vast spectrum of possibilities between EEA membership and North Korean style isolation. Even the dimmest of leavers MUST have an opinion about this.
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I'm not a leaver, but I will answer the question myself. If the UK votes to leave the EU, it should desperately try to remain an EEA member, along the lines of Iceland or Norway.

 

[deltic]

In your opinion, how likely is it that Brexit will lead to the mass deportation of millions of Brits from the EU? Is there a 15% chance of it happening? 50%? 100%?

Mass deportations zero - removal of right to reciprocal health care and requirement for compulsory health insurance probably quite high - result many retirees may find it unaffordable to remain in the likes of Spain and return to the UK

 

[TheKnightWho]

Mass deportations zero - removal of right to reciprocal health care and requirement for compulsory health insurance probably quite high - result many retirees may find it unaffordable to remain in the likes of Spain and return to the UK

You've nailed it on the head.

 

[anme]

Mass deportations zero - removal of right to reciprocal health care and requirement for compulsory health insurance probably quite high - result many retirees may find it unaffordable to remain in the likes of Spain and return to the UK

It depends on what the UK chooses to do the EU citizens living there.

My advice to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU under the freedom of movement and freedom of labour rules is to learn the local language and start naturalisation procedures ASAP. Like our friends from countries outside the EU, this will affect every aspect of our lives in the years to come - work, marriage, buying property, pensions, healthcare, travel, etc.

 

[Gutfright]

And yet a good number of leave supporters are doing so specifically because foreigners won't be allowed to live and work here if we leave. Are all those people hysterical scaremongers too?

That depends. Are these strawme... I mean people saying that Brexit will lead to mass deportation of millions of people from the UK?

Personally I don't know of any leave supporter who is saying that. The only people who are saying that will happen are hysterical scaremongering remain supporters.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

The i newspaper has a front page today saying Leave is now in the lead with 55%. Can a restart of the poll be made as many may have changed their stance?

 

[Gutfright]

Mass deportations zero - removal of right to reciprocal health care and requirement for compulsory health insurance probably quite high - result many retirees may find it unaffordable to remain in the likes of Spain and return to the UK

Millions of them? Seriously? Millions?

 

[Domh245]

The i newspaper has a front page today saying Leave is now in the lead with 55%. Can a restart of the poll be made as many may have changed their stance?

Looking at the results of the past 20 polls, it would seem to be an outlier.

 

[radamfi]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics

still has remain at 2/5 and leave at 9/4

Importantly, remain in Scotland is 1/40.

 

[anme]

That depends. Are these strawme... I mean people saying that Brexit will lead to mass deportation of millions of people from the UK?

Personally I don't know of any leave supporter who is saying that. The only people who are saying that will happen are hysterical scaremongering remain supporters.

Given that leave supporters are not prepared to say what they want to happen after a leave vote (one person above even said it was an unfair question!), I think people are right to be scared. Even the guy who did answer the question above just said he wanted a series of bilateral deals - which might mean anything. What kind of deals do you want? And anyway, it's not up to individuals, it will be up to whichever political leaders emerge after a leave vote. I don't like to say this, but let's be frank - Gove/Johnson looks pretty likely. If I was an EU citizen who has built a life in the UK, I would be pretty scared at the prospect of them being in charge of my fate. And if I was a UK citizen living and working elsewhere in the EU, I would also be scared, because these things tend to be reciprocal and what the UK does to foreigners may well be imposed on UK citizens abroad too.

About the bilateral deals, presumably this means eventually we need a deal with every trading block in the world, right? It's a good thing that many of them club together in "single markets" to make this kind of thing easier! Although, it does give them an unfair advantage in the negotiations, of course...

 

[Gutfright]

The i newspaper has a front page today saying Leave is now in the lead with 55%. Can a restart of the poll be made as many may have changed their stance?

I'd expect the results would be pretty much the same. In the UK rail travel is hella expensive, so train fans tend to be more well-off as a group than the general population. That skewers the results somewhat.

That's also why the concerns of ordinary working-class Brits who are struggling to make ends meet aren't really covered in this thread, but issues such as "will I still be able to retire in a Spanish villa?" get done to death.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I'd expect the results would be pretty much the same. In the UK rail travel is hella expensive, so train fans tend to be more well-off as a group than the general population. That skewers the results somewhat.

That's also why the concerns of ordinary working-class Brits who are struggling to make ends meet aren't really covered in this thread, but issues such as "will I still be able to retire in a Spanish villa?" get done to death.

That's some seriously stretched reasoning. I don't think rail fans are richer on the whole.

I hear this argument a lot - that those who support Remain aren't ordinary, or aren't working class etc. Yet there's little evidence that Leave is in their interests, and there's certainly little evidence that that is the primary factor in people voting to leave.

 

[Gutfright]

Given that leave supporters are not prepared to say what they want to happen after a leave vote (one person above even said it was an unfair question!), I think people are right to be scared.
.

Nobody has given me any guarantees that if Remain wins I won't get raped to death by flying unicorns.

Do you think I'm right to be scared of being raped to death by flying unicorns?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Nobody has given me any guarantees that if Remain wins I won't get raped to death by flying unicorns.

Do you think I'm right to be scared of being raped to death by flying unicorns?

Because those two things are completely comparable? If you gave this kind of reasoning in a business meeting, suggesting the company go a new direction, you'd get laughed out of the room.

 

[Senex]

Given that leave supporters are not prepared to say what they want to happen after a leave vote (one person above even said it was an unfair question!), I think people are right to be scared.

Not just what they want to happen but what might happen! The Brexiters are asking us all to buy into the unknown, where they refuse even to tell us precisely what sort of a deal they would like to try to negotiate -- and it would be a case of what they could try, for there would be no certainties. AT least the Remainers can ask us to vote to keep things as they are, which is a known.

Brexit could (perhaps) clear the path to the broad sunlit uplands, as the Brexiters urge us to believe it would without offering any clear pathway, or it could lead to us the edge of the abyss, with recession, a collapsing currency, and a failed (even more than now!) political system.

 

[anme]

I hear this argument a lot - that those who support Remain aren't ordinary, or aren't working class etc. Yet there's little evidence that Leave is in their interests, and there's certainly little evidence that that is the primary factor in people voting to leave.

There are some striking statistics regarding demographics. Almost two thirds of people who left school by 16 want to leave, while around two thirds of people who continued education past 20 want to remain. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9693
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Nobody has given me any guarantees that if Remain wins I won't get raped to death by flying unicorns.

Do you think I'm right to be scared of being raped to death by flying unicorns?

That's a perfect insight into the mind of a "Brexiter", especially in light of the statistic I posted just above. It should probably be left to stand on its own.

However, I will ask whether you are aware of the concept of "probability"? That some events are more likely than others?

 

[Gutfright]

Because those two things are completely comparable? If you gave this kind of reasoning in a business meeting, suggesting the company go a new direction, you'd get laughed out of the room.

Exactly. Saying "people should be worried about a very, very, very improbable thing happening" is laughable.

So I'm sure that, as we are in agreement, you will join me in condemning those on the leave side who have tried to insinuate that the possibility of Brexit leading to the mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from the UK is something worth worrying about?

 

[deltic]

Millions of them? Seriously? Millions?

I wasn't quoting a number - according to a recent House of Lords debate there are 400,000 UK state pension recipients living in the EU. In reality the number will be higher as many retirees will maintain UK bank accounts and addresses for various reasons or just spend the winter overseas.

 

[anme]

Exactly. Saying "people should be worried about a very, very, very improbable thing happening" is laughable.

So I'm sure that, as we are in agreement, you will join me in condemning those on the leave side who have tried to insinuate that the possibility of Brexit leading to the mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from the UK is something worth worrying about?

Mass deportations are not really what people are worried about. That's relatively unlikely, although it certainly can't be ruled out. More likely is that people (to be clear, taxpayers) will be made to leave if they lose their job; or they will lose entitlement to healthcare, forcing them to leave if they get ill; or they will not be allowed by buy property or get married; or they will not get reasonable pension rights; or their children will not be permitted an education; or they will be subject to draconian red tape of many kinds. In the end, most evil would be done with rules and regulations, not outright force.

This is really what scares people - both EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU - and quite rightly so.

 

[deltic]

Not just what they want to happen but what might happen! The Brexiters are asking us all to buy into the unknown, where they refuse even to tell us precisely what sort of a deal they would like to try to negotiate -- and it would be a case of what they could try, for there would be no certainties. AT least the Remainers can ask us to vote to keep things as they are, which is a known.

Brexit could (perhaps) clear the path to the broad sunlit uplands, as the Brexiters urge us to believe it would without offering any clear pathway, or it could lead to us the edge of the abyss, with recession, a collapsing currency, and a failed (even more than now!) political system.

To be fair the Brexit camp like the remain camp is made up of many disparate groups with widely different political views. These range from quite isolationist views of virtually zero immigration and protectionist trade policies to very radical free market positions where most employment protections would go along with all trade barriers. Some in this camp would want to see far more open immigration but more based on skills rather than entitlements. For these reasons the Brexit camp can't set out a coherent picture of the future they want because they would end with never ending infighting.

 

[Gutfright]

However, I will ask whether you are aware of the concept of "probability"? That some events are more likely than others?

I'm well aware of the concept of probability, thank you.

How likely do you think it is that Brexit would lead to mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from the UK? 33% likely? 78%? 100%?

There are some striking statistics regarding demographics. Almost two thirds of people who left school by 16 want to leave, while around two thirds of people who continued education past 20 want to remain. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9693

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt here and assume you're not saying that people who don't go to university are stupid and therefore Brexit is stupid.

In that case, what the statistics you quoted seem to suggest is that working class people (who are less likely to go into tertiary education) are more likely to be pro-Brexit.

Of course on these forums Remain is beating Leave by almost two to one, which suggests to me that the working class is under-represented here.

 

[EM2]

Of course on these forums Remain is beating Leave by almost two to one, which suggests to me that the working class is under-represented here.

Depends how you define working-class.
I was brought up by a single parent that went out to work, I went to a state grammar school, I left after A-levels (which I failed), I've worked ever since, I can't afford to buy a house but do have a new car and I am in a management position.
Working-class or middle-class?

 

[Gutfright]

Depends how you define working-class.
I was brought up by a single parent that went out to work, I went to a state grammar school, I left after A-levels (which I failed), I've worked ever since, I can't afford to buy a house but do have a new car and I am in a management position.
Working-class or middle-class?

Middle class.

If you work in management, your role is not to produce things (which is what the working class do) but to administer capitalism on behalf of the ruling class.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with being middle class (you despicable class-traitor ) just noting that, tragically, many working class people lack the time and money required to fully appreciate how awesome trains are. That fact is reflected in the skewed poll results on this thread.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That's also why the concerns of ordinary working-class Brits who are struggling to make ends meet aren't really covered in this thread, but issues such as "will I still be able to retire in a Spanish villa?" get done to death.

I don't think that's really fair. This thread has somewhat covered the predictions that in the event of a Brexit, the economy is likely to take quite a hit and the value of the £ will almost certainly fall - the people who will suffer most from that are precisely ordinary people, some of whom will lose their jobs, and most of whom are likely to see higher food prices as imports become more expensive.

We've also discussed immigration - and the issue that immigrants do not on the whole massively reduce the supply of jobs (contrary to what many on the right incorrectly claim), hence leaving the EU and killing free movement is not in fact likely to benefit ordinary people in that regard.

Besides many of those who go to Spain for their retirement are ordinary working-class Brits - who happen to have worked most of their lives and saved up enough to go abroad (which, in part thanks to the EU, is not massively expensive in any case).

 

[EM2]

Middle class.

If you work in management, your role is not to produce things (which is what the working class do) but to administer capitalism on behalf of the ruling class.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with being middle class (you despicable class-traitor ) just noting that, tragically, many working class people lack the time and money required to fully appreciate how awesome trains are. That fact is reflected in the skewed poll results on this thread.

Ah, but I work as a manager in a sector which doesn't produce anything anyway, and not only that, I'm part of a unionised workforce, and work for a company that has no shareholders, so how do I stand now?

 

[Gutfright]

Ah, but I work as a manager in a sector which doesn't produce anything anyway, and not only that, I'm part of a unionised workforce, and work for a company that has no shareholders, so how do I stand now?

Who owns your workplace, and who gets the profits when your company has a good year?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Middle class.

If you work in management, your role is not to produce things (which is what the working class do) but to administer capitalism on behalf of the ruling class.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with being middle class (you despicable class-traitor ) just noting that, tragically, many working class people lack the time and money required to fully appreciate how awesome trains are. That fact is reflected in the skewed poll results on this thread.

I don't think Marx would agree that managing people isn't producing anything.

 

[dgl]

But what do we want, an EU setup where money generally gets spent on good things that help the poorer parts of Britain or on research or the current conservative government which would.probably just spend the money we would save by leaving on tax breaks for the rich.

I know which one I'd rather have.

Just because we would have all this supposed extra money doesn't mean any of use would actually see it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Middle class.
I'm not saying there's anything wrong with being middle class (you despicable class-traitor ) just noting that, tragically, many working class people lack the time and money required to fully appreciate how awesome trains are. That fact is reflected in the skewed poll results on this thread.

That might be a factor in the high support for Remain on this thread. However, it's just as plausible that it's linked to the high proportion of left-wing people on these forums - since polling indicates that people on the left are more likely to be remain supporters. It could also be because people interested in trains are more likely to be concerned about the environment - although I have no statistics, I get the impression that often seems to go with a more internationalist view of the world. Also, when I've been to railforums meetups, I've noticed the people attending are predominantly fairly young. If that's reflected in the people posting here, that again would bias the results towards remain. (I'd guess that most likely, it's a combination of all those things)