Should We Leave the EU?

[Antman]

If politicians had been more strict about foreigners coming over here in the past then Nigel Farage would never have been born as his father would have remained in France and not met his British mother.

And as for those troublesome Greeks - how dare one of them come over here and start up one of the biggest airlines in Europe paying millions of pounds of tax to Westminster which could have gone to the Greek government. :roll:

What on earth has any of that got to do with unlimited numbers of unskilled migrants coming here?

In case you haven't noticed there are millions unemployed and a serious housing shortage, the last thing we need are more people.

I mean if you've only got a two bedroom semi surely you don't invite all your neighbours round for a sleepover?

 

[Senex]

So Jamea Dyson has come out in favour of brexit. I don't understand his reasons to be honest.

Isn't Dyson one of those entrepreneurs who has already moved production of his vacuum cleaners etc out of the UK (and thus out of the EU) to Asia to take advantage of cheaper labour costs?

He complains about different languages and plugs. That won't change on brexit.

And isn't Britain one of the states that has been most reluctant to consider any standardisation of plugs, using the usual arguement that British is best?

Just another billionaire wanting to leave Europe for his own gain?

Exactly!

 

[yorksrob]

You have been reading too many right wing newspapers.
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Please please please answer the question! What do you (or any other "leaver") want for the UK after leaving the EU? Do you want to remain in the EEA (Norway)? Do you want to make complex bilateral arrangements amounting to much the same thing (Switzerland)? Do you want to sail off into the Atlantic and start from scratch? What do you want?! You MUST have a plan! Please tell us what it is!

My examples are all true:

The housing market - Denmark required a treaty opt out to instigate a policy of requiring home buyers to be residents for four years.
VAT - see my above post regarding VAT rates on energy efficient goods.
Railway Management - the fourth railway package will embed separate track and train operation in law.

I trust that any left wing newspapers worth their salt would have reported these developments as well.

I don't know the ins and outs of these other countries arrangements, therefore I don't feel qualified to comment on them, plus, given that they're all different anyway there seems to be no guarantee that we would have the same outcome as them anyway.

My view would be that an arrangement that allowed the country to retain more control over the economy (favouring residents and citizens in terms of ownership of assets), freedom not to pursue market liberalisation in public services, freedom to support strategically important supply chain industries (e.g. Steel) rather than having to be at the mercy of the market. Freedom to support industrial development to rebalance the economy away from an overdependence on financial services (even if this does involve an element of state aid).

If we had these, I would be happy with a reasonably generous movement and immigration policy (if not a complete open door) as well as no tariff barriers for goods.

 

[TheKnightWho]

What on earth has any of that got to do with unlimited numbers of unskilled migrants coming here?

In case you haven't noticed there are millions unemployed and a serious housing shortage, the last thing we need are more people.

I mean if you've only got a two bedroom semi surely you don't invite all your neighbours round for a sleepover?

We could maybe build more houses? Creating jobs and places to live.

 

[yorksrob]

Isn't Dyson one of those entrepreneurs who has already moved production of his vacuum cleaners etc out of the UK (and thus out of the EU) to Asia to take advantage of cheaper labour costs?



And isn't Britain one of the states that has been most reluctant to consider any standardisation of plugs, using the usual arguement that British is best?



Exactly!

The British electric three pin plug arrangement is safer than elsewhere on account of the earth pin. Standardisation would most likely involve a lowest common denominator, less safe two pin arrangement, therefore would be a step backwards.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

My view would be that an arrangement that allowed the country to retain more control over the economy (favouring residents and citizens in terms of ownership of assets), freedom not to pursue market liberalisation in public services, freedom to support strategically important supply chain industries (e.g. Steel) rather than having to be at the mercy of the market. Freedom to support industrial development to rebalance the economy away from an overdependence on financial services (even if this does involve an element of state aid).

If we had these, I would be happy with a generous movement and immigration policy (if not a complete open door) as well as no tariff barriers for goods.

I fear the point you're missing there is that if you have no tariff barriers for goods (and nothing else blocking a free-trade zone) then your Government loses considerable control over the economy anyway. It might be less obvious because there are no visible regulations 'imposed' from outside, but it loses control because it ends up at the mercy of all the businesses that can say, in effect, if you don't lower this tax rate or remove this safety standard, we'll just shift production to country X that doesn't have safety standards/high wages/etc. The EU regulations might seem unpalatable to those who wish all decisions to be made in the UK, but by making all countries follow similar standards etc., they to some extent protect against exactly that race-to-the-bottom.

In the end, you have three choices:

1. Leave the EU, but keep free trade zones outside the EU, but then that free trade naturally deprives you of your independence anyway, and risks pulling the country into a low-wage low-safety low-tax etc. economy, whether you want it or not.

2. Leave the EU and put trade barriers up. That way you keep your independence, keep more control of your economy. But the downside is the loss of free trade means less efficient production and overall living standards will fall.

3. Stay in the EU, and keep the free trade and the external regulation. That way you keep the economic benefits and higher living standards that tend to result from the free trade, and the EU regulation/harmonization protects you (albeit imperfectly) from the nightmare of large businesses playing countries off against each other - at a cost of decisions being made at the EU level. (Or of course: Leave the EU but then sign back up to most of the EU regulations so you can access the EU free market - then you just lose the ability to influence those regulations without really gaining anything)

 

[Antman]

We could maybe build more houses? Creating jobs and places to live.

Oh yes that'll be a good idea, in fact maybe we should build them on flood plains? And maybe we should just overlook the local infrastructure being unable to cope, roads, schools, healthcare facilities etc etc and the detrimental effect it will have on the lives of the indigenous population?

 

[EM2]

Oh yes that'll be a good idea, in fact maybe we should build them on flood plains? And maybe we should just overlook the local infrastructure being unable to cope, roads, schools, healthcare facilities etc etc and the detrimental effect it will have on the lives of the indigenous population?

How about converting thousands of derelict industrial buildings, upgrading the infrastructure and creating jobs?

 

[anme]

My view would be that an arrangement that allowed the country to retain more control over the economy (favouring residents and citizens in terms of ownership of assets), freedom not to pursue market liberalisation in public services, freedom to support strategically important supply chain industries (e.g. Steel) rather than having to be at the mercy of the market. Freedom to support industrial development to rebalance the economy away from an overdependence on financial services (even if this does involve an element of state aid).

If we had these, I would be happy with a reasonably generous movement and immigration policy (if not a complete open door) as well as no tariff barriers for goods.

How do you expect to achieve agreements with other countries on free movement and trade towards their countries, while preventing free movement and trade into the UK? Could you give some examples of how you would favour residents and citizens (do you really mean both of those?) in terms of ownership of assets? Which assets are you thinking of?

 

[northwichcat]

What on earth has any of that got to do with unlimited numbers of unskilled migrants coming here?

That's a load of rubbish. The number of unskilled people in the world is not infinity so there can't be an unlimited number of unskilled people arriving. And what are you classing as unskilled - are Polish brick layers unskilled in your opinion?
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Oh yes that'll be a good idea, in fact maybe we should build them on flood plains? And maybe we should just overlook the local infrastructure being unable to cope, roads, schools, healthcare facilities etc etc and the detrimental effect it will have on the lives of the indigenous population?

So where are you going to put the millions of Britons who may have to return home if we leave the EU and restrict immigration, who will end up taking the place of those immigrants that you hate so much? There's millions of retired Britons living abroad who will be a much bigger drain on the NHS than a equivalent number of working age Eastern Europeans.

 

[anme]

It's interesting to think what would actually happen from 24th June onwards, for say 10-20 years, if there is a vote to leave. I might post a timeline later. Other contributions are invited.

 

[yorksrob]

How do you expect to achieve agreements with other countries on free movement and trade towards their countries, while preventing free movement and trade into the UK? Could you give some examples of how you would favour residents and citizens (do you really mean both of those?) in terms of ownership of assets? Which assets are you thinking of?

And how exactly do countries not anywhere near Europe manage to have relationships with each other ? I suspect they balance one need against another whilst achieving a suitable compromise. This is why I would support a generous policy of free movement which balanced the benefits of movement against the negatives of suppressed wages and strain on services etc. I suspect that all countries would benefit from this approach, rather than a free for all or a North Korean style lock down.
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I fear the point you're missing there is that if you have no tariff barriers for goods (and nothing else blocking a free-trade zone) then your Government loses considerable control over the economy anyway. It might be less obvious because there are no visible regulations 'imposed' from outside, but it loses control because it ends up at the mercy of all the businesses that can say, in effect, if you don't lower this tax rate or remove this safety standard, we'll just shift production to country X that doesn't have safety standards/high wages/etc. The EU regulations might seem unpalatable to those who wish all decisions to be made in the UK, but by making all countries follow similar standards etc., they to some extent protect against exactly that race-to-the-bottom.

In the end, you have three choices:

1. Leave the EU, but keep free trade zones outside the EU, but then that free trade naturally deprives you of your independence anyway, and risks pulling the country into a low-wage low-safety low-tax etc. economy, whether you want it or not.

2. Leave the EU and put trade barriers up. That way you keep your independence, keep more control of your economy. But the downside is the loss of free trade means less efficient production and overall living standards will fall.

3. Stay in the EU, and keep the free trade and the external regulation. That way you keep the economic benefits and higher living standards that tend to result from the free trade, and the EU regulation/harmonization protects you (albeit imperfectly) from the nightmare of large businesses playing countries off against each other - at a cost of decisions being made at the EU level. (Or of course: Leave the EU but then sign back up to most of the EU regulations so you can access the EU free market - then you just lose the ability to influence those regulations without really gaining anything)

The problem is that if you stay in the EU, you get tied into the negative consequences of greater integration as Greece has.

In truth, I suspect that most countries making arrangements with each other would come up with a combination of the above scenarios.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The problem is that if you stay in the EU, you get tied into the negative consequences of greater integration as Greece has.

But those negative consequences of greater integration stemmed largely from Greece's membership of the Euro, which doesn't apply to the UK.

 

[AM9]

The British electric three pin plug arrangement is safer than elsewhere on account of the earth pin. Standardisation would most likely involve a lowest common denominator, less safe two pin arrangement, therefore would be a step backwards.

That just isn't true. The defacto standard 3-pole 'Europlug' is the CEE 7/5 plug. That plug is a hybrid of the German 'Schuko F' plug (CEE 7/4) and the French (designated CEE 7/6). In any combination, the CEE 7/5 plug will correctly mate with legacy French or Schuko sockets as well as new CEE 7/4 sockets that are becoming the defacto standards in most of the larger European countries. Even those that have different style sockets like the Italian 'L' type with in-line pins, are slowly installing multi-standard types that also have CEE 7.4 specification sockets on the same faceplate.
The UK and Ireland are the odd ones out with their fused plugs. The decision to design a cheap-to-install design based on a ring circuit in the immediate post-war years might have meant that there was a saving on houses built at the time, but it has left us with an electrical system that is only safe if not abused. Most other countries just brought the radial designs of pre-war systems up to date, resulting in MCB protected circuits and RCD protected systems being commonplace well before wireable fuses were discouraged by the IEE.
So for the UK to adopt a common EU design, it would need homes to be rewired. But all major EU countries have full provision for grounded devices in their domestic wiring standards.

 

[yorksrob]

But those negative consequences of greater integration stemmed largely from Greece's membership of the Euro, which doesn't apply to the UK.

But it's what comes next in the march towards ever closer union. The Euro debacle is just an illustration of how far the organisation is prepared to go in undermining a member state in pursuit of it's aims.

BTW your earlier post deserves far greater attention than I am able to provide at present, but will revisit tomorrow
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That just isn't true. The defacto standard 3-pole 'Europlug' is the CEE 7/5 plug. That plug is a hybrid of the German 'Schuko F' plug (CEE 7/4) and the French (designated CEE 7/6). In any combination, the CEE 7/5 plug will correctly mate with legacy French or Schuko sockets as well as new CEE 7/4 sockets that are becoming the defacto standards in most of the larger European countries. Even those that have different style sockets like the Italian 'L' type with in-line pins, are slowly installing multi-standard types that also have CEE 7.4 specification sockets on the same faceplate.
The UK and Ireland are the odd ones out with their fused plugs. The decision to design a cheap-to-install design based on a ring circuit in the immediate post-war years might have meant that there was a saving on houses built at the time, but it has left us with an electrical system that is only safe if not abused. Most other countries just brought the radial designs of pre-war systems up to date, resulting in MCB protected circuits and RCD protected systems being commonplace well before wireable fuses were discouraged by the IEE.
So for the UK to adopt a common EU design, it would need homes to be rewired. But all major EU countries have full provision for grounded devices in their domestic wiring standards.

Well, as long as they've got rid of those flimsy two pin things. As you say, there would be no point standardising now.

 

[AM9]

Well, as long as they've got rid of those flimsy two pin things. As you say, there would be no point standardising now.

If you are talking about these:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Euro-Flachstecker_2.jpg

What's wrong with them?

Incidentally, the Low Voltage directive expressly excludes any requirements for specific domestic power plug/sockets. The Europlug designs are defined in the interests of companies who don't want to add cost to their products by providing versions for each and every subtly-different type. The adoption of an almost defacto standard is an industrial decision, - one that James Dyson would probably approve of.

 

[miami]

The British electric three pin plug arrangement is safer than elsewhere on account of the earth pin. Standardisation would most likely involve a lowest common denominator, less safe two pin arrangement, therefore would be a step backwards.

I agree. BS1363 is the greatest plug and socket combo ever devised. The only problem is the dangerous "socket covers" that ignorants buy.


HOWEVER

So many devices are class 2 nowadays, where the earth pin is unconnected, the utility of the space saving plugs in the eu has advantages too.

 

[yorksrob]

That just isn't true. The defacto standard 3-pole 'Europlug' is the CEE 7/5 plug. That plug is a hybrid of the German 'Schuko F' plug (CEE 7/4) and the French (designated CEE 7/6). In any combination, the CEE 7/5 plug will correctly mate with legacy French or Schuko sockets as well as new CEE 7/4 sockets that are becoming the defacto standards in most of the larger European countries. Even those that have different style sockets like the Italian 'L' type with in-line pins, are slowly installing multi-standard types that also have CEE 7.4 specification sockets on the same faceplate.
The UK and Ireland are the odd ones out with their fused plugs. The decision to design a cheap-to-install design based on a ring circuit in the immediate post-war years might have meant that there was a saving on houses built at the time, but it has left us with an electrical system that is only safe if not abused. Most other countries just brought the radial designs of pre-war systems up to date, resulting in MCB protected circuits and RCD protected systems being commonplace well before wireable fuses were discouraged by the IEE.
So for the UK to adopt a common EU design, it would need homes to be rewired. But all major EU countries have full provision for grounded devices in their domestic wiring standards.

I agree. BS1363 is the greatest plug and socket combo ever devised. The only problem is the dangerous "socket covers" that ignorants buy.


HOWEVER

So many devices are class 2 nowadays, where the earth pin is unconnected, the utility of the space saving plugs in the eu has advantages too.

Fair point.

 

[Muttley]

BTW, I'm still waiting for an answer to my often repeated question about what the outers want after leaving the EU. Do you want to be Norway? Turkey? Canada? What do you want to see? You *must* have thought hard about this.

It doesn't matter in the slightest what anyone on here wants.

It's In/Out.

If it's out than we go to a negotiated withdrawal (as if).

Nowhere is there a section for those who want to be Norway, a corner over there for Switzerland, oh and hands up for Canada.

You Quislings aren't half making a binary question look complicated.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Oh yes that'll be a good idea, in fact maybe we should build them on flood plains? And maybe we should just overlook the local infrastructure being unable to cope, roads, schools, healthcare facilities etc etc and the detrimental effect it will have on the lives of the indigenous population?

So your argument is that there are absolutely no places it's feasible to build in Britain? What utter rubbish.

You seem to have this idea it's literally impossible to expand public services too, which makes absolutely no sense. If immigrants pay in more than they take out, which has been proven, we have the extra money to pay for it.

 

[Harbornite]

It doesn't matter in the slightest what anyone on here wants.

It's In/Out.

If it's out THEN we go to a negotiated withdrawal (as if).

Nowhere is there a section for those who want to be Norway, a corner over there for Switzerland, oh and hands up for Canada.

You Quislings aren't half making a binary question look complicated.

I fail to see the relevance to Quisling, the remain voters aren't traitors to their country. Have you actually studied the economic case for Brexit or is that boring?

 

[TheKnightWho]

It doesn't matter in the slightest what anyone on here wants.

It's In/Out.

If it's out than we go to a negotiated withdrawal (as if).

Nowhere is there a section for those who want to be Norway, a corner over there for Switzerland, oh and hands up for Canada.

You Quislings aren't half making a binary question look complicated.

So you want to leave with no plan whatsoever? Are you completely insane?

 

[Gutfright]

So where are you going to put the millions of Britons who may have to return home if we leave the EU and restrict immigration, who will end up taking the place of those immigrants that you hate so much?

In your opinion, how likely is it that Brexit will lead to the mass deportation of millions of Brits from the EU? Is there a 15% chance of it happening? 50%? 100%?

 

[dosxuk]

In your opinion, how likely is it that Brexit will lead to the mass deportation of millions of Brits from the EU? Is there a 15% chance of it happening? 50%? 100%?

In your opinion, how likely is it that Brexit will lead to the mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from Britain? Is there a 15% chance of it happening? 50% 100%?

The two are inextricably linked. If we prevent EU citizens from living and working here, we can be sure the EU will do the same to our citizens.

 

[Domh245]

So you want to leave with no plan whatsoever? Are you completely insane?

To be fair to Muttley, I'm sure that everyone on the exit side has their own plan for what they want to happen, but the poll isn't on "Should the UK leave the EU and become a member of the EEA in a Norway style agreement", or similar. The only certainty if Vote leave wins is that the Government will have to take this result to the EU and attempt to trigger article 50. What happens after that, nobody knows - anyone who claims to know exactly what will happen in the event of a vote leave win should probably be asked for next week's Euromillions numbers.

 

[backontrack]

Message to mods - am I able to switch my vote from Undecided to Remain? Thanks.

 

[Gutfright]

In your opinion, how likely is it that Brexit will lead to the mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from Britain? Is there a 15% chance of it happening? 50% 100%?
.

Happy to answer your question.

The chances of Brexit leading to a mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from Britain is about a trillionth of a percent. Let's just round it off and call it 0%.

The idea that Brexit would lead to mass deportations is just hysterical scaremongering.

 

[TheKnightWho]

To be fair to Muttley, I'm sure that everyone on the exit side has their own plan for what they want to happen, but the poll isn't on "Should the UK leave the EU and become a member of the EEA in a Norway style agreement", or similar. The only certainty if Vote leave wins is that the Government will have to take this result to the EU and attempt to trigger article 50. What happens after that, nobody knows - anyone who claims to know exactly what will happen in the event of a vote leave win should probably be asked for next week's Euromillions numbers.

But when it's a personal question about what he personally wants, it's quite important to have some idea. When the leave campaign has been as incoherent as it's been, with no agreement on where they want the country to go, it just makes it look kneejerk and badly thought-through.

 

[dosxuk]

Happy to answer your question.

The chances of Brexit leading to a mass deportation of millions of EU citizens from Britain is about a trillionth of a percent. Let's just round it off and call it 0%.

The idea that Brexit would lead to mass deportations is just hysterical scaremongering.

And yet a good number of leave supporters are doing so specifically because foreigners won't be allowed to live and work here if we leave. Are all those people hysterical scaremongers too?

It seems to me the only clear thing about both campaigns is that nobody on the leave side is able to give a concrete answer about what we will do if we leave. There's lots of ideas and suggestions amongst the obvious "you're lying", "you're scaremongering" and "that's just nonsense" responses to things the Remain side say, but very little "this is what we expect / plan to do". It all seems a bit like one of those internet meme's which people use to sum up ridiculous and impossible ideas:
1) Get a referendum
2) Leave the EU
3) ...
4) Profit

 

[tony_mac]

It seems to me the only clear thing about both campaigns is that nobody on the leave side is able to give a concrete answer about what we will do if we leave.

I don't think that's really a fair criticism, of course they don't know yet - there will probably be at least hundreds of people involved in years of talks and negotiations to actually put together a complete, concrete, plan.

You really can't expect the politicians to magic something like this up, there isn't even a broad consensus about whether to join the EEA or not, so anything more specific would be completely pointless at this stage.