Should We Leave the EU?

[yorksrob]

The pound will fall on brexit
The government will try to keep the pound strong (to keep imports cheaper)
They do this by raising interest rates

This may be true, but then again, as Dynamic Spirit points out, if the economy is weaker, there will also be pressure to keep interest rates lower.

I've also not seen any analysis of how Brexit will affect the flow of foreign capital into the housing market, which seems to have been contributing to house price inflation and the lack of accommodation in recent years in the South East in particular.

Of course, if our balance of payments situation wasn't so poor, imports wouldn't represent so much of an issue.

 

[Howardh]

This may be true, but then again, as Dynamic Spirit points out, if the economy is weaker, there will also be pressure to keep interest rates lower.

I've also not seen any analysis of how Brexit will affect the flow of foreign capital into the housing market, which seems to have been contributing to house price inflation and the lack of accommodation in recent years in the South East in particular.

South east - isn't that flow of money mainly from Russia/China/Middle east (Ie NOT the EU) buying property, so, technically, staying/leaving won't make one jot of difference?

I'm sitting here in a house worth £400k which if it were transported to Hamstead would probably be worth, what, three bed semi with large garage and decent garden....£1.2m? More??

 

[yorksrob]

South east - isn't that flow of money mainly from Russia/China/Middle east (Ie NOT the EU) buying property, so, technically, staying/leaving won't make one jot of difference?

Well it is, but if we were going to impose any sort of control on this flow, we would need a treaty opt-out from the single market regulations (as Denmark currently has). My limited understanding of opt-outs is that they tend to be much easier to achieve before the treaty is signed rather than afterwards.

 

[radamfi]

Please, no more people saying that immigration causes unemployment. It is not logical. If it was true, then there would be low unemployment in places with limited immigration, such as parts of the North East of England and the Welsh Valleys, and there would be mass unemployment in London.

 

[Antman]

Please, no more people saying that immigration causes unemployment. It is not logical. If it was true, then there would be low unemployment in places with limited immigration, such as parts of the North East of England and the Welsh Valleys, and there would be mass unemployment in London.

Well of course it's logical!!

Those places you mention probably have limited immigration precisely because of the lack of jobs and there is plenty of unemployment in London and those that do have jobs are often poorly paid and have zero hours contracts because employers know that there is an unlimited supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe readily available!
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But on the 23rd June you are not voting for a new government. The same party will be in power on 24 June implementing the same policies as now - there will be no change in that respect regardless of the result.

I think everybody is aware of that, the point was that David Cameron will be gone!

 

[radamfi]

Those places you mention probably have limited immigration precisely because of the lack of jobs and there is plenty of unemployment in London and those that do have jobs are often poorly paid and have zero hours contracts because employers know that there is an unlimited supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe readily available!

By your logic, reducing population would lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate. The lowest unemployment rates would be found in areas with sparse population. There has been a significant loss in population in much of central, eastern and southern Europe, yet unemployment is high in many of those areas.
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Voting for Brexit is pointless as the pro-EU MPs will ensure that the single market would be preserved including free movement

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

The BBC has learned pro-Remain MPs would use their voting power in the House of Commons to protect what they see as the economic benefits of a single market, which gives the UK access to 500 million consumers.

Staying inside the single market would mean Britain would have to keep its borders open to EU workers and continue paying into EU coffers.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Well of course it's logical!!

No, it isn't. It isn't logical because human beings, whether immigrant or 'native', do not only work, they also consume things. People don't generally simply hoard the money they earn - most people go out and spend it, and that in turn creates other jobs. So to a good approximation, each immigrant who comes in both takes one job and creates another job (by spending what s/he earns). That means that the impact of immigration is likely to be employment-neutral as far as jobs for UK citizens is concerned.

Now of course it's not quite that simple: There are lots of secondary effects caused by issues of skills, differences between the kinds of jobs different groups of people do, and in some cases the need for investment. Those secondary effects may well mean that in some industries, employment opportunities decrease (while in other industries they improve). But overall, immigration is not going to impact employment levels significantly. Those who incorrectly claim that it does are simply showing an ignorance of how the economy works.

 

[Antman]

By your logic, reducing population would lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate. The lowest unemployment rates would be found in areas with sparse population. There has been a significant loss in population in much of central, eastern and southern Europe, yet unemployment is high in many of those areas.
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Voting for Brexit is pointless as the pro-EU MPs will ensure that the single market would be preserved including free movement

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

It would obviously reduce unemployment by virtue of the fact there would be less people seeking employment, I feel we are just going round in circles here!

 

[radamfi]

It would obviously reduce unemployment by virtue of the fact there would be less people seeking employment, I feel we are just going round in circles here!

But I just said that areas with low population density have high unemployment! There is little or no relationship between population density and unemployment. When people leave a place, the demand for goods and services decreases, so emigration means a reduction in jobs.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Oh I don't blame the people themselves, I blame the system that has allowed this to happen.

So you blame the UK government for not spending properly on the NHS and schooling, when they have the additional revenue to do so?

Why do you want to give them extra power?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think everybody is aware of that, the point was that David Cameron will be gone!

... to be replaced in all probabiilty by an even more right-wing Conservative who may well be very happy to do even more to damage working conditions etc.

 

[TheKnightWho]

It would obviously reduce unemployment by virtue of the fact there would be less people seeking employment, I feel we are just going round in circles here!

And there would also be fewer people to serve, and therefore fewer jobs. It really does make me despair when you keep saying this whilst clearly not reading the replies of people telling you why you're wrong.

By your logic, the north of Scotland should have 100% employment because almost no-one lives there.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It would obviously reduce unemployment by virtue of the fact there would be less people seeking employment, I feel we are just going round in circles here!

Yes.... Fewer people seeking employment AND fewer jobs to go round (because there will be fewer people wanting to buy things)! Result: Very little net difference in unemployment levels.

 

[Antman]

No, it isn't. It isn't logical because human beings, whether immigrant or 'native', do not only work, they also consume things. People don't generally simply hoard the money they earn - most people go out and spend it, and that in turn creates other jobs. So to a good approximation, each immigrant who comes in both takes one job and creates another job (by spending what s/he earns). That means that the impact of immigration is likely to be employment-neutral as far as jobs for UK citizens is concerned.

Now of course it's not quite that simple: There are lots of secondary effects caused by issues of skills, differences between the kinds of jobs different groups of people do, and in some cases the need for investment. Those secondary effects may well mean that in some industries, employment opportunities decrease (while in other industries they improve). But overall, immigration is not going to impact employment levels significantly. Those who incorrectly claim that it does are simply showing an ignorance of how the economy works.

Many migrants actually send most of it back to their native country so I'm not sure how that is going to help the UK economy?

Anyway I think I'll bow out of this debate for the time being as it doesn't really seem to be going anywhere.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Many migrants actually send most of it back to their native country so I'm not sure how that is going to help the UK economy?

Anyway I think I'll bow out of this debate for the time being as it doesn't really seem to be going anywhere.

Going to provide evidence they remove money from the economy? I've already shown they provide a net benefit, when including services they use.

The conversation is certainly going somewhere, but it doesn't seem to be the place you want.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Many migrants actually send most of it back to their native country so I'm not sure how that is going to help the UK economy?

Now you're starting to use a bit more logic. That's good!

Yes you're correct that some migrants do send some money back home, and that of course won't help the economy in the UK. That's one of the 'secondary effects' I alluded to in my post (though I didn't mention that one explicitly).

I'd be very surprised if significant numbers sent most of their earnings back though - that would be quite difficult by the time you've paid for food and lodgings in the UK. More likely, it's some migrants sending some money back. The effect in terms of employment levels in the UK is likely to be fairly small (though I'd accept, not zero).

However, I would imagine the migrants most likely to send most money back aren't the ones from the EU - it'll be the people from extremely poor countries outside the EU - because those are the people who most desperately need to help their families etc. back home. So leaving the EU isn't likely to make a massive difference in that regard. Since that money is on the whole going to people who need it far more than almost anyone in the UK, and the actual amounts, as a proportion of our GDP, are tiny, I don't see at as being something you could reasonably object to.

Incidentally, migrants sending money back home amounts to an indirect form of aid to poorer countries - and I have heard it suggested that it's a much more effective form of aid than simply giving money to foreign Governments (I don't know whether that's true or not). There is perhaps a case for saying that should therefore be included in the figures for the amount of aid we give, but that's a completely separate argument.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Did I hear correctly this morning that "fears" of a Brexit success has affected the value of Sterling in a detrimental manner?

 

[Howardh]

Did I hear correctly this morning that "fears" of a Brexit success has affected the value of Sterling in a detrimental manner?

As both a regular holidaymaker and follower of the pound/euro, it always seems to fall just as holiday seasons arrive - along with French blockades and Spanish air controller's strikes, you can set your watch by it.

But, question is, is the £ falling more than it should because of Brexit?

But one fact is, people going for their holiday currency will find they are getting less now than two months ago (which they may already have budgeted for) and if they blame Brexit they may well vote to stay. Is the euro in your pocket more important than a Pole doing the plumbing?

 

[miami]

I think everybody is aware of that, the point was that David Cameron will be gone!

And replaced by someone far worse.
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Going to provide evidence they remove money from the economy? I've already shown they provide a net benefit, when including services they use.

The conversation is certainly going somewhere, but it doesn't seem to be the place you want.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/585860/Foreign-aid-British-Migrants-11bn-other-countries-year

British migrants send £11BILLION back to other countries in a YEAR
..
In Britain, around £2bn went to Eastern Europe while the rest was sent mainly to Asia and Africa.

So any Brexit will have very limited effect on the amount sent out of the UK.

 

[northwichcat]

Looks like this EU debate is still ongoing, unless they're doing a low budget remake of the Italian Job.

 

[keithboddey]

With Angela Merkel threatening to make trade more difficult if we vote to leave, given that we had a trade deficit with Germany in 2015 of 46 billion US dollars, is this good news or bad?

 

[TheKnightWho]

With Angela Merkel threatening to make trade more difficult if we vote to leave, given that we had a trade deficit with Germany in 2015 of 46 billion US dollars, is this good news or bad?

Bad news. Falling value of the pound makes imports more expensive.

 

[Howardh]

One subject that needs addressing is - on UK leaving the EU, Spain could legally and permanently close the Spain/Gibraltar border, this isolating our fellow citizens. That's been done before, and Gibraltar has survived, but matters could escalate with a shipping blockade - and ultimately an invasion is possible. Unlikely, but possible.
None of this is a worry whilst we are in the EU, but can we cope with a Falkland's style dispute (war??) and would any member of the EU be on our side?

 

[DarloRich]

The Spanish are not going to invade Gibraltar this side of the next ice age - brexit or no!

(We can take them anyway - a bit of wind did for them last time )

 

[miami]

That's been done before, and Gibraltar has survived, but matters could escalate with a shipping blockade - and ultimately an invasion is possible. Unlikely, but possible.

Oh wait you're serious?

Look, staying in the EU is the right choice, but Spain is not going to be invading Gibraltar if we leave, statements like that are what I expect from Farage.

 

[Howardh]

Oh wait you're serious?

Never been more serious.

They're closing the border, that's a given, the minute we have officially left and aren't under EU rules; and I don't put shipping blockades past them.

They are doing their upmost now by extending border checks to as long as they can get away with, and are itching to shut the thing completely.

 

[Harbornite]

The Spanish are not going to invade Gibraltar this side of the next ice age - brexit or no!

(We can take them anyway - a bit of wind did for them last time )

Aye. If they tried anything, we would finally have a use for Trident!

 

[Mutant Lemming]

Oh wait you're serious?

Look, staying in the EU is the right choice, but Spain is not going to be invading Gibraltar if we leave, statements like that are what I expect from Farage.

When interviewed virtually all Gibraltarians who could vote in the referendum said they would vote to remain - however many also said that if they were living in the UK they would vote leave.


I doubt anyone on here is going to change their deeply entrenched views by any of the so called 'facts' either side present on here. Most of us have already made our minds up for whatever reasons and most of the debate on here is going round in circles.

 

[tony_mac]

They're closing the border, that's a given, the minute we have officially left and aren't under EU rules; and I don't put shipping blockades past them.

I doubt they will close the border completely, as that puts several thousand Spanish residents out of work.
However, they have proposed border tolls in the recent past (with exemptions for residents on the Spanish side), which seems far more likely.

 

[DarloRich]

Aye. If they tried anything, we would finally have a use for Trident!

we don't need Trident for the Spanish. A bloke playing bowls will do.