I believe almost the opposite is true (in both your unlikely statements about the man)
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Should We Leave the EU?
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DarloRich
Veteran Member
what and we cant say British exit? :roll:
Robertj21a
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Like it or not, Brexit has been in common use in the media for some time now.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Well it is silly and lazy journalism then.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
If yesterday's UKIP party political broadcast is anything to go by, the debate will be at least as ill-informed as many people here fear 
The broadcast focused entirely on the possibility of Turkey joining the EU, pointing out 'issues' such as that Turkey has a border with Iraq and Syria, and generally presenting various facts apparently designed to provoke the fear of millions of Turkish migrants arriving in the UK after Turkey joins the EU, which, the viewer is lead to believe, is very likely to happen soon, and is therefore a good reason why we should leave.
Strangely, nowhere during the entire broadcast was it even once mentioned that, based on current progress, the likelihood of Turkey joining the EU in the near future appears to be roughly zero!
(Though it pains me to provide the link, if anyone wants to watch the broadcast, it's at youtube. The Youtube version appears to be slightly longer than the one that aired on tv yesterday, so presumably has a little bit of extra material that I won't have seen.
The broadcast focused entirely on the possibility of Turkey joining the EU, pointing out 'issues' such as that Turkey has a border with Iraq and Syria, and generally presenting various facts apparently designed to provoke the fear of millions of Turkish migrants arriving in the UK after Turkey joins the EU, which, the viewer is lead to believe, is very likely to happen soon, and is therefore a good reason why we should leave.
Strangely, nowhere during the entire broadcast was it even once mentioned that, based on current progress, the likelihood of Turkey joining the EU in the near future appears to be roughly zero!
(Though it pains me to provide the link, if anyone wants to watch the broadcast, it's at youtube. The Youtube version appears to be slightly longer than the one that aired on tv yesterday, so presumably has a little bit of extra material that I won't have seen.
NY Yankee
Member
Turkey used to be a secular and enjoyable country. Many tourists flocked to Istanbul. Then, Erdogan took over and imposed Sharia Law. I don't even consider Turkey to be a European nation. It's a Middle Eastern nation just like Saudi Arabia.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
sorry, but where do you get your information from?????????
I don't believe Turkey's at anything like the level of theocratic dominance that Saudi is - although the current government has a much more religious outlook than previous secular ones.
If anything, Turkey seems to be going down the route of 'strong man' style government - much like Russia, although the two obviously aren't best of friends at the moment.
If anything, Turkey seems to be going down the route of 'strong man' style government - much like Russia, although the two obviously aren't best of friends at the moment.
ExRes
Established Member
I heard on radio this morning that we're on the verge of leaving the EU, YouGov claim that the 'out' vote is now up to 45%, so that's a fact, we're out without the need to actually bother with printing ballot papers I'd have thought
God bless the YouGov panel of pollsters even if, of course, it does mean they're all UKIP voting, Daily Mail reading racists ...........
Anyone on here actually take part in this representative YouGov poll ?
God bless the YouGov panel of pollsters even if, of course, it does mean they're all UKIP voting, Daily Mail reading racists ...........
Anyone on here actually take part in this representative YouGov poll ?
These would be the same pollsters which so accurately predicted the 2015 general election result?
They can be a pretty good indicator, but treat the polls with an element of caution. In particular pay close attention to the confidence level and the confidence interval attached to their results!
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It's quite clear you know nothing about Turkish politics. There is no Sharia law. Rather Erdogan's role has been to shore up his own position by undermining his critics and principles of democracy - you're seeing an authoritarian regime in the making and this is a political move.
Masbroughlad
Established Member
I want us to stay in. I am disappointed that we aren't looking to be in ever closer union with th EU. I think the whole argument should be flipped and we should get more involved and be a strong influence on a stronger EU. I also think our aim should eventually be to join the Euro.
IMHO the whole leave or stay debate should be put on hold indefinitely until the migrant crisis is sorted and is history. I believe the two issues are getting put together and some people only see the migration side.
I hope sense prevails.
IMHO the whole leave or stay debate should be put on hold indefinitely until the migrant crisis is sorted and is history. I believe the two issues are getting put together and some people only see the migration side.
I hope sense prevails.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
No but you can easily join on line: https://yougov.co.uk/account/register/ i might join up actually!
I think polls at this stage can only reflect a respondents internal bias either way. We have yet to see any real debate on the subject to sway opinion.
Mistakes were definitely made, but they were still (just) within their 3% margin - a 95% confidence interval, so they will occasionally be wrong.
However, ExRes was probably being sarcastic - he doesn't believe that polls have any meaning at all.
I wonder if Turkey's Sharia law is as severe as that imposed in Birmingham.
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
I can only presume, given your name, that you've been watching far too much Fox News.
Robertj21a
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Not sure where you get this from - have you been there recently ?
Its black and white to me - by pulling out of the EU we get control of our borders back, get to say who comes in and who we can deport, and makes our parliament sovereign.
A party that received a large amount of support. The fact they had 1 MP off 3,881,099 votes, where the Tories got 1MP for 34242 votes, and the SNP got 1 for 25,972 votes, is a disgrace.
They predictied tories would get 34% and they got 36.9% - 8% off, they predicted Labour with 33% and Labour really got 30.4 - 8% off. Libdems they predicted 9% when they got 7.9% - 12% off, and UKIP on 13% when they got 12.7%, 2% off.
So they were within 10% of the target.
Currently it's 45% for leaving and 36% against. If those ratios stayed the same, and the undecided were split in the same proportions, and the polls were bang on, you'd see 56% for leaving and 44% against. Add in the 10% fluctuation from 2015 and you get 51-61% for leaving, and 40-48% against.
So assuming the polls are as accurate as they were in 2015, it looks like we're leaving.
However it's a long way away yet, but I suspect that the Pro-EU campaign will need to work very hard on persuading that 20%. Nigel Farage should be a big help in that.
The error margin is normally considered in absolute terms, i.e. they were all within 3%
(it's not possible to calculate error margins in relative terms, e.g., imagine very small parties who just won't appear in a randomly chosen sample)
(it's not possible to calculate error margins in relative terms, e.g., imagine very small parties who just won't appear in a randomly chosen sample)
10% off is massive! Particularly when you translate that 10% into the allocation of seats in the House of Commons!
The issue here is that conventional wisdom suggests the undecided stick with the status quo - but there's really no way of telling. On the day itself those who are undecided do not matter as their votes (or lack of them) won't count
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No we won't.
No we won't. We will still be bound by the European Convention on Human Rights, the Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, the Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, the UN International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, not to mention a significant body of other international and national law. None of these things mentioned have anything to do with the EU. I'm not sure what you think leaving will achieve here?
No it won't. De jure, the UK Parliament is, and always has been, sovereign. Joining the EU has not affected this position, particularly as Parliament retains the right to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, and other relevant statutes relating to our membership of the EU. It's all academic, however. As I've pointed out up-thread the very notion of parliamentary sovereignty (and indeed 'sovereignty' in a wider context) has been dead except on paper since probably the Bretton Woods conference of 1944.
It is, but then the no campaign is a long away ahead of the yes campaign, even if the polls were skewed to wards no.
Once the referendum is announced the no campaign really needs to step up its game.
It really depends which polls you look at, as each polling organization uses slightly different methodologies and each use different population samples. Look at YouGov and yes it says the leave campaign is ahead. However, the latest poll from IpsosMori puts staying in ahead by some 12 percentage points. The latest ComRes poll has staying in ahead by 18 percentage points.
It's quite interesting, it seems that online and telephone polling are producing vastly different results for these particular polls.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-the-eu-referendum-isnt-really-on-a-knife-edge-a6776431.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-the-eu-referendum-isnt-really-on-a-knife-edge-a6776431.html
I feel sure we will not get an impartial debate on television or any other media. The BBC is biased towards the EU as it gets from the EU, I think it is £9m a year, to promote EU unity. The newspapers still get matters out of context, or totally wrong information, and some editors swing the content towards their own feelings.
keithboddey
Member
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29 nations....One government..One money...No borders..........Count me out..
ExRes
Established Member
"Probably" is an understatement, I don't necessarily believe that the polls have no meaning at all but I certainly believe they are overhyped to put it mildly, you only have to think back to polling night to recall the faces of the 'experts', media know-it-alls and politicians to see their utter shock at the exit polls and as the REAL figures started to come in
As for their overall value I must say that I've been voting since the 1974 elections and have never once had anyone from an 'independent' polling group canvass my opinion before or after voting, as I can't believe that I'm in any way unique I refuse to accept that an organisation such as YouGov can anticipate whether I will vote Tory, Labour, UKIP or Devon Cream Independent
Of course the media isn't impartial, but your claim that the BBC is biased towards the EU is simply untrue. In fact an independent review found the BBC gives much more airtime to Eurosceptic view points than it does pro-EU ones.
I would also like to see your source for this £9m a year you allege the BBC receives to promote the EU.
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28 nations, 28 governments, 10 currencies, numerous borders... what are you on about?
This is the elephant in the room. What does a 'no' vote mean? Does it mean negotiating a relationship with the EU like Norway or Switzerland has - having to obey most of the rules while having little say in their making, but remaining part of the single market and retaining freedom of movement while not contributing much to budgets, etc? (This used to be the position of the anti-Europeans)
Or does it mean opting out of Europe altogether, and becoming something more like Turkey or Ukraine?
Why has the 'no' camp not put together a clear plan? (Well, obviously because they could never agree on one)
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