Should We Leave the EU?

[miami]

Maybe you have missed the many mentions of immigration from both the Remain and Leave camps so the very mention of immigration from both sides makes it a part of this vote

I've seen stuff about legal EU immigration, which will likely be affected by a brexit unless we go for a Norway or Switzerland style accord with europe (which is most likely).

However immigration from outside the EU (the majority of legal immigration), not to mention the blackmarket illegal immigration, and any refugees and asylum seekers, will not be affected by brexit.

 

[EM2]

Interesting. How many Turks are there living in Germany?

Just under 3m people who have at least one parent that is Turkish, including 1.55m Turkish citizens.
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Many people are utterly fed up of being patronised, lied to, cheated, demonised and shamed by a ConLabLib group of largely smug and detached-from-reality politicians. A vote at a General Election is now next to worthless. The net result is just a very slightly different shade of politics every few years, managed over by well-educated individuals whose abilities seem to be confined to kicking cans down proverbial roads.

And how will that change with a Brexit vote? The same politicians, belonging to the same parties, voted in by the same system, will still be running the country.

 

[miami]

And how will that change with a Brexit vote? The same politicians, belonging to the same parties, voted in by the same system, will still be running the country.

It was entirely possible for change. I suspect that people think UKIP would be a "change". Had those that not bothered to vote voted for UKIP, UKIP would have a large majority and about 50% of the country would have voted for them. But no, voting makes no difference :roll:

As such all I can work with is that those who didn't bother to vote don't want UKIP, and those that do want UKIP are out numbered 6:1 by those that don't.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Many people are utterly fed up of being patronised, lied to, cheated, demonised and shamed by a ConLabLib group of largely smug and detached-from-reality politicians.

This is the kind of stereotype that much of the press likes to portray, but all my experience is that it's simply not true. I know quite a few politicians - one MP and a number of local councillors - reasonably well. None of them appear to me to be detached from reality. All of them - so far as I can tell, have a very keen sense of the problems faced by local people, and work extremely hard to try to represent their constituents and to make people's lives better, often in very difficult circumstances. People often forget that politicians can't just wave magic wands and make all our troubles disappear - they have to work within the confines of what is economically and legally possible.

Besides, even if your claim that politicians are detached from reality was true, how on Earth would a Brexit help that? After a Brexit, you'd still just be electing the same politicians (minus the MEPs), and they'd have roughly the same amount of power (maybe a little bit more depending what deal is struck with the EU after a Brexit). They still won't be able to wave magic wands and make all our troubles disappear.

If anything, the people who are lying most are the Brexit campaigners, who repeatedly lie about the level of our EU contributions, mislead about the likely impact of a Brexit on immigration and on the economy, and falsely make out that migrants are responsible for all sorts of bad things that are actually caused by Government policy and austerity, and have very little to do with immigration. Ironically, many of those people are precisely the people who are likely to end up in control of the Conservative Party, and therefore the Government, after a possible Brexit. I'd say the likelihood of that leading to any improvement in politics is roughly zero.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

And how will that change with a Brexit vote? The same politicians, belonging to the same parties, voted in by the same system, will still be running the country.

Yet another voice of reason heard in the wilderness. I am glad that you chose to "state the obvious" as it seems there are still those on this website thread seemingly fitting into the category of "none so deaf as those who will not hear"....:roll:

 

[Antman]

So there we have it...Brexit means dumping all our problems on Northern Ireland.
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Yes, one now, one after. So no change, no reason to vote Brexit.

You are making no sense, how does that mean that there is no reason to vote Brexit?

 

[TheKnightWho]

You are making no sense, how does that mean that there is no reason to vote Brexit?

So you're denying there'll be a huge problem with Northern Ireland if we remove freedom of movement in Ireland?

 

[EM2]

FTSE and pound fall as Brexit campaign strengthens
FTSE 100 drops below 6,000 and sterling falls as host of polls show 'leave' campaign strengthening and betting markets start to turn.

http://citywire.co.uk/money/ftse-and-pound-fall-as-brexit-campaign-strengthens/a921055

The FTSE 100 and the pound have fallen after a host of polls showed the strengthening of the 'leave' campaign ahead of the UK's referendum on European Union membership next week.

The UK blue-chip index fell 121 points, or 2%, to 5,923 while the pound dropped 1% to $1.413, hovering around a two-month low against the dollar.

That followed three separate polls underlining the lead taken by the 'Brexit' camp ahead of next Thursday's vote. An ICM poll for The Guardian showed 53% backing for leave and 47% for 'remain', once undecideds were excluded.

The leave camp boast an even bigger lead according to a YouGov survey for The Times, which puts them on 46% support versus 39% for remain, with 15% undecided.

It also took the lead in The Telegraph's poll, albeit by a slim margin, with 49% support versus 48% for remain.

Meanwhile, the campaign also received a boost from The Sun newspaper, which backed a UK exit.

Even the betting markets, which have been ascribing a much slimmer possibility to an 'out' vote than the polls, are beginning to turn.

Betting odds now imply only a 55% chance of the UK voting to remain in the EU according to Betfair, down from 78% as recently as Thursday.

European markets were also down on the news. The French CAC 40 fell 1.4%, the German DAX 30 was down 0.7%, Italy's FTSE MIB dropped 0.9% and Spain's Ibex fell 1.1%.

'Equity indices are extending their losses, fearful of a now heightened prospect that the UK votes to leave the European Union, worsening an already fragile global growth situation by delivering an economic and political blow to a struggling eurozone,' said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets.

'Once added to existing concerns about China slowdown and debt bubble, questions about the US economy following a weak jobs report and with a trip of central bank updates yet to come this week, markets have taken another leg lower.'

The pound's fall meanwhile cut short yesterday afternoon's recovery, as rumours the delayed ICM/Guardian poll would hand the lead back to the remain camp proved unfounded.

'The pound gyrated wildly, one moment it was surging on the back of rumours that the EU remain camp had taken back the lead, before plunging once more when the latest official poll put the leave campaign slightly ahead with only nine days to go before the vote,' said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.

'The pound remains an easy target this week unless we see a shift in sentiment towards remaining in the EU over the coming days.'

 

[Aldaniti]

More doom and gloom from the Remain camp.

The FTSE drop over the past 3 days amounts to £67bn, which is down 1.16%.

By comparison during the same period, the Eurozone was down as follows:

Amsterdam: 1.74%
DAX Germany: 1.8%
CAC40 France: 1.85%
IBEX Spain: 2.2%

So yet again the British economy outperforms the Eurozone!

The pound has been on a downwards trajectory since around July 2014, and the latest downward movement started in January this year. Of course markets will react to any decision to remain - or exit - the EU, but the current downward pressure on the pound is slightly more to do with our current account deficit and slightly less to do with any decision to leave the EU (although it would be naive to suggest that Brexit won't/wouldn't have any effect in the short-term). A weaker pound might not be advantageous for those trading in raw materials, but it certainly helps end product manufacturers. Swings and roundabouts, like most things I guess.

Panic over.

 

[EM2]

More doom and gloom from the Remain camp.

The FTSE drop over the past 3 days amounts to £67bn, which is down 1.16%.

By comparison during the same period, the Eurozone was down as follows:

Amsterdam: 1.74%
DAX Germany: 1.8%
CAC40 France: 1.85%
IBEX Spain: 2.2%

So yet again the British economy outperforms the Eurozone!

So it's a coincidence that this fall comes so soon after a raft of polls in favour of Leave?

The pound has been on a downwards trajectory since around July 2014, and the latest downward movement started in January this year.

So it's a coincidence that this fall comes so soon after the passing of legislation to hold an EU referendum?

Of course markets will react to any decision to remain - or exit - the EU, but the current downward pressure on the pound is slightly more to do with our current account deficit and slightly less to do with any decision to leave the EU

Do you have a link to any research that supports this point?

(although it would be naive to suggest that Brexit won't/wouldn't have any effect in the short-term). A weaker pound might not be advantageous for those trading in raw materials, but it certainly helps end product manufacturers. Swings and roundabouts, like most things I guess.

Panic over.

And what about everyone else that's not a manufacturer? You know, like people with pensions, or savings, or investments.

In addition - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36526008?yptr=yahoo

Returns on 10-year UK government bonds fell by a significant amount - 0.06 percentage points - to a record low of 1.146%, while 20-year and 30-year "gilts" also dropped to record lows.
The decline in yields, or returns, for government bonds reflects strong demand from investors for a safe place to park their money.

In the case of Germany, the yield fell as low as minus 0.032% - meaning investors were prepared to pay, rather than be paid, to own "Bunds".
Luke Hickmore, co-manager of Aberdeen Asset Management's Strategic Bond Fund, said that Bund yields could fall as low as minus 0.1%: "This is just investors getting, very, very, very nervous about the way this [Brexit] vote is going to go."
Ulrich Kater, economist at DeKaBank, said the uncertainty about a possible Brexit was driving investors to the safe haven of German bonds. "The drop in yields below the zero mark once again shows the immense challenges currently facing global financial markets," he added.

People are essentially paying the German government to look after their money for ten years.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

More doom and gloom from the Remain camp.

The FTSE drop over the past 3 days amounts to £67bn, which is down 1.16%.

By comparison during the same period, the Eurozone was down as follows:

Amsterdam: 1.74%
DAX Germany: 1.8%
CAC40 France: 1.85%
IBEX Spain: 2.2%

You would expect that the threat of a Brexit would hurt markets in the Eurozone as well as markets in the UK (although probably not by as much), so showing that those indices fell as well doesn't really back up your point much. If anything, you could argue that it backs up the very plausible suggestion that the threat of a Brexit is hurting all the markets in Europe. (However, there are so many other factors influencing markets that you would need more than one 3-day snapshot to be able to deduce much, so by itself it's not very strong evidence).

 

[Aldaniti]

Do you have a link to any research that supports this point?

Yes, no problem:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nt-account-deficit-has-economists-scared.html

Hope this helps. As I've always said, I don't expect everything in the garden to be rosy in the short term - possibly whichever way we vote - and we can both quote so-called facts and statistics all day long. I suspect when it comes to it, people will vote based on their instinct.

 

[Muttley]

So you're denying there'll be a huge problem with Northern Ireland if we remove freedom of movement in Ireland?

Are you back, Sweetie ?
That's two of you Remainers now that have called immigration/immigrants a 'problem'. I thought you lot thought they were an asset.
Who'd have thunk it, forever changing the facts to fit your reality.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I'm sorry to say that we are heading for a Brexit. Labour Party voters / supporters from working class backgrounds are convinced that immigrants are to blame for everything, not matter how much I talk about Tory austerity measures. All I hear is "immigrants first", the mythical £350 million, "I want my country back" and fourthly "everyone I know is voting 'Out'. No matter how prepared I am for these responses they will not be convinced otherwise. Depressing stuff but they've made their minds up.

I'm afraid the lunatics are finally taking over the asylum

 

[Groningen]

Quote linked to Rupert Murdoch:
I once asked RM why he was so opposed to the European Union. 'That’s easy,' he replied. 'When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice.'

 

[Gutfright]

I'm afraid the lunatics are finally taking over the asylum

What solutions do you propose to try and minimise the amount of control the lunatics have over the asylum?

 

[LateThanNever]

I'm sorry to say that we are heading for a Brexit. Labour Party voters / supporters from working class backgrounds are convinced that immigrants are to blame for everything, not matter how much I talk about Tory austerity measures. All I hear is "immigrants first", the mythical £350 million, "I want my country back" and fourthly "everyone I know is voting 'Out'. No matter how prepared I am for these responses they will not be convinced otherwise. Depressing stuff but they've made their minds up.

Of course the government is responsible for how the state deals with immigrants and Not the EU so that is a complete red herring.
And which one of us is not an immigrant? We all came from Africa FGS and I know I'm a combination of French, German and Danish and probably Celt. So am I entitled to remain? Or should I go back to Africa?

 

[EM2]

Yes, no problem:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nt-account-deficit-has-economists-scared.html

I can't see anything in there that says the current account deficit is causing pressure on Sterling. However the last paragraph does say

An EU exit remains a remote possibility. But even that could “put significant downwards pressure on sterling, especially if – as seems likely – expectations would be for a close contest”, said Mr Hill.

 

[VauxhallandI]

What solutions do you propose to try and minimise the amount of control the lunatics have over the asylum?

This has been gone over many times I this thread.

Brexit changes nothing.

Sufficient power is here already and it hasn't been used.

 

[backontrack]

What solutions do you propose to try and minimise the amount of control the lunatics have over the asylum?

Well, the lunatics are over the pond, not the Channel.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Yes, no problem:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nt-account-deficit-has-economists-scared.html

Hope this helps. As I've always said, I don't expect everything in the garden to be rosy in the short term - possibly whichever way we vote - and we can both quote so-called facts and statistics all day long. I suspect when it comes to it, people will vote based on their instinct.

How long is "short term" though? Is it really worth the risk?

 

[Howardh]

In the last 48 hours I've just had £6000 wiped off my shares. Not a happy bunny right now.

 

[Gutfright]

In the last 48 hours I've just had £6000 wiped off my shares. Not a happy bunny right now.

#humblebrag

 

[Harbornite]

#humblebrag

It's a genuine cause for grievance though, isn't it.

 

[EM2]

#humblebrag

The amount that the FTSE has dropped over the last week is equivalent to 3.5 years of current payments to the EU.
And that's just concern over that we might leave. Imagine what will happen if we actually do.

 

[Howardh]

#humblebrag

What does humblebrag mean? My shares are my pension, the less I get @ 66 is less for me to spend in the economy, and I would be more reliant on state handouts.
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The amount that the FTSE has dropped over the last week is equivalent to 3.5 years of current payments to the EU.
And that's just concern over that we might leave. Imagine what will happen if we actually do.

*Like* button required

 

[EM2]

Sorry, I was slightly mistaken. It was 3.5 years of payments wiped off the FTSE in a DAY.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Less than two weeks to go now, for those still undecided.

 

[Gutfright]

The amount that the FTSE has dropped over the last week is equivalent to 3.5 years of current payments to the EU.
And that's just concern over that we might leave. Imagine what will happen if we actually do.

In the short term the FTSE would likely drop further as uncertainty scares some of the more skittish investors away.

Over time the FTSE would not only recover, but would most likely be in a better position post-Brexit than it would be otherwise.

 

[Harbornite]

In the short term the FTSE would likely drop further as uncertainty scares some of the more skittish investors away.

Over time the FTSE would not only recover, but would most likely be in a better position post-Brexit than it would be otherwise.

Where's your proof?