Should We Leave the EU?

[furnessvale]

I'm confused on what the state will be for people who rely on freedom of movement. Will Spain be happy to let our citizens continue living there in their cultural enclaves while at the same time we will not allow Spanish citizens to live here? Will we still have EHIC medical cover?

The big difference between UK expats in Spain and Spanish workers in the UK is that the vast majority of the 700,000 Brits in Spain are retired and are spending their pensions on what is effectively an extended holiday.

If Spain feels rich enough to expel 700,000 holidaymakers, best of luck to them.

Any talk of those expats being a drain on Spanish medicare is disingenuous as, even now, at the first sign of of a serious medical problem they are on the first plane back to the UK for NHS treatment so nothing would change there.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I can't imagine anybody will be deported but we will see an end to the endless supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe that have flooded the healthcare and construction industries supressing wages in the process!

What on Earth makes you think that no one will be deported? The UK is continuously deporting people of non-EU nationalities - typically around 35000/year. (more details for example here). As far as I'm aware there's no official breakdown of the figures by reason for deportations, but there's enough anecdotal evidence from individual cases to show that some of those are people who have legitimately lived in the UK for years or decades, have not committed any crime, but happen to have fallen foul of various obscure visa regulations. To imagine that, in the event of our leaving the EU, the same won't happen to at least some EU citizens who currently live here would appear to be pure wishful thinking.

 

[Blamethrower]

As someone who took advantage of this "freedom of movement", it really isn't as easy as you would think. Yes you don't have to apply for a visa, but registering, getting a BSN or a social security number etc will have to be done regardless.

Being in the EU doesn't affect any of this.

Back in the day we voted for a European Common Market, not an unelected super state.

From a train perspective too, nothing will change on the eurostar.

I will be voting OUT.

Use the money saved to do something, anything. 20bn a year is not an insignificant amount.

Please can someone explain to me what the benefits of staying in the EU are? (not being facetious, just that no-one has given me any pro staying arguments that affect me)

- it will affect our jobs - in a good way I reckon, it will stop large corporations importing cheap labour at the drop of a hat
- Big business don't like it - well tough. Government is meant to be for the people and not corporations.

Please someone give me an argument I can relate to/digest/understand. So far, everything I've heard, including the PM has not given me one good reason to stay in.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

And an avid cyclist.

Todays headline: Big firms warn EU exit 'threatens jobs'

:roll:

What I want to know is what the concrete plans are (if we leave) for my Polish window cleaner -- will he be deported? How about my German consultant at the hospital? I'm concerned as they're both customers of my local shop, and that's going to impact on their bottom line.

What will happen to my Brother who lives in Portugal, or my friend who works in Munich? They're both probably fine as they have Portugese/German wives. Will my parents ex-pat friends in Greece be repatriated though?

Has the "leave" campaign even got a suggestion, let alone a plan?

That is all nonsense.

Of course they won't be deported, it just means that they will have to retrospectively apply for a working visa, that's all.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

What on Earth makes you think that no one will be deported? The UK is continuously deporting people of non-EU nationalities - typically around 35000/year. (more details for example here). As far as I'm aware there's no official breakdown of the figures by reason for deportations, but there's enough anecdotal evidence from individual cases to show that some of those are people who have legitimately lived in the UK for years or decades, have not committed any crime, but happen to have fallen foul of various obscure visa regulations. To imagine that, in the event of our leaving the EU, the same won't happen to at least some EU citizens who currently live here would appear to be pure wishful thinking.

People who don't belong here and have fallen foul of the rule should be deported. That's what rules are for. Just because they've worked here for a certain amount of time doesn't mean that they belong here.

No-one who is working here legally will be deported, unless they've committed a crime of course.

You seem to think that all people who are deported are all families and children and people who've never done any harm to anyone. Poppycock.

 

[Antman]

What on Earth makes you think that no one will be deported? The UK is continuously deporting people of non-EU nationalities - typically around 35000/year. (more details for example here). As far as I'm aware there's no official breakdown of the figures by reason for deportations, but there's enough anecdotal evidence from individual cases to show that some of those are people who have legitimately lived in the UK for years or decades, have not committed any crime, but happen to have fallen foul of various obscure visa regulations. To imagine that, in the event of our leaving the EU, the same won't happen to at least some EU citizens who currently live here would appear to be pure wishful thinking.

I meant people who are here legally won't be deported.

 

[anme]

I meant people who are here legally won't be deported.

Presumably you mean legally here *now*. Their legal right to live and work here might be removed if the UK leaves the EU. I would like you to explain what concrete reason you have to state that they won't be required to leave.

 

[radamfi]

As someone who took advantage of this "freedom of movement", it really isn't as easy as you would think. Yes you don't have to apply for a visa, but registering, getting a BSN or a social security number etc will have to be done regardless.

Being in the EU doesn't affect any of this.

But there's no question about being allowed to live in the country. What you are talking about is just a bit of bureaucracy. You don't have to jump through hoops like someone from outside the EU. Just think how hard it is for someone from outside the EU to live in the UK. Virtually impossible unless you are highly skilled or are marrying a UK citizen, and that person has to be earning above a minimum income or have large savings.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Presumably you mean legally here *now*. Their legal right to live and work here might be removed if the UK leaves the EU. I would like you to explain what concrete reason you have to state that they won't be required to leave.

Lots of people actually want EU citizens living in the UK to be expelled. However, they will be disappointed as a lot of EU citizens have recently acquired UK citizenship in case of Brexit.

 

[Tetchytyke]

It has been said many times in the press that being part of the ECHR was a condition of being part of the EU. Is that true or not?

All member states of the EU are in the Council of Europe, but not all members of the Council of Europe are in the EU.

This means that membership of the Council of Europe, which runs the ECHR, is irrelevant to the refrerendum. The referendum is asking whether we should stay in the EU. It is not asking whether we should be a member of the Council of Europe.

 

[Antman]

Presumably you mean legally here *now*. Their legal right to live and work here might be removed if the UK leaves the EU. I would like you to explain what concrete reason you have to state that they won't be required to leave.

Do you know anything to the contrary?

 

[anme]

Do you know anything to the contrary?

I want to be very clear that you and I are both speculating (which is all we can do at this stage), and that therefore my fears are fully justified and not at all "scaremongering".

 

[Mvann]

I want to be very clear that you and I are both speculating (which is all we can do at this stage), and that therefore my fears are fully justified and not at all "scaremongering".

Wether EU Citizens stay or are asked to leave depends as much on the rest of the EU as it does on Britain. Things aren't going to change overnight, with the exception that the MEPs will be out of a job.

 

[LateThanNever]

Interesting link to paper on the likely result of any Brexit by Jean-Claude Piris former Director General of EU Legal Services.
http://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/doc/questions-d-europe/qe-355-en.pdf
It is clear that if by some crazy chance we vote out, it will take years to extricate ourselves and will also be complex and very expensive and entail lots of parliamentary legislation. My conclusion is that, having made our bed all those years ago when we joined we just have to lie in it, and our time would be much better spent trying to influence and improve the EU, rather than going into a exasperated sulk and walking away à la Farage.

 

[ExRes]

Lots of people actually want EU citizens living in the UK to be expelled. However, they will be disappointed as a lot of EU citizens have recently acquired UK citizenship in case of Brexit.

I've no idea if your claim is true or not, but it does lead to the obvious question, if everyone seems so convinced that an out vote is on a par with Armageddon, why would these EU citizens acquire UK citizenship and why would they want to stay in a country divorced from the EU?

 

[DarloRich]

You do seem obsessed with the Conservatives, and you obviously have an inside track on their thoughts. Of course it is equally possible that opposition parties will continue their own little internal squabbles (See, for instance, the laughter from the Labour benches at the "Who are you?" joke).
Or perhaps it is possible that politicians of all colours are generally hard-working, well meaning types who will take this issue seriously.

I am sure some are.

I am also sure several top Tories are very keen to be the next leader of that party and probably by extension the next prime minster. I would present whatever position played well with my core vote to try to secure that position, especially on Europe

You may be more selfless and sacrifice that chance by standing on principle. I know I wouldn't! I doubt they will.

 

[radamfi]

I've no idea if your claim is true or not, but it does lead to the obvious question, if everyone seems so convinced that an out vote is on a par with Armageddon, why would these EU citizens acquire UK citizenship and why would they want to stay in a country divorced from the EU?

Lots of people have families, friends, jobs, kids at school etc. and are fully settled in the UK. Most people don't move even if, on paper, there is a better option elsewhere. Otherwise there would be no one left in Romania, west Wales, Cornwall etc.

 

[Antman]

I want to be very clear that you and I are both speculating (which is all we can do at this stage), and that therefore my fears are fully justified and not at all "scaremongering".

Yes I take your point but there certainly is quite a bit of scaremongering going on.

I certainly don't see anybody who is here legally being forcibly being removed in the foreseeable future, many migrant workers are only here short term anyway and will gradually leave of their own free will.

 

[radamfi]

I'm not particularly worried about people who have already emigrated, although I would certainly advise against complacency, but my main concern is for people who have yet to leave thei original country.

 

[DelayRepay]

I can't imagine anybody will be deported but we will see an end to the endless supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe that have flooded the healthcare and construction industries supressing wages in the process!

Which means prices will rise. I think it's a disgrace how we treat our elderly but how much worse will it be when there is no longer a supply of cheap labour to look after them?

There are simply not enough health care professionals to keep the NHS running, so regardless of whether we are in the EU or not we will need migrant workers. Of course, being outside the EU may make the UK a less attractive destination and therefore mean we have to pay more to attract healthcare professionals.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

- it will affect our jobs - in a good way I reckon, it will stop large corporations importing cheap labour at the drop of a hat
- Big business don't like it - well tough. Government is meant to be for the people and not corporations.

You are making the assumption that large corporations will stay in the UK and simply increase wages if they find themselves short of workers as a result of the exit. This is unlikely because:

- If they see their wage bill rising, then manufacturing companies may well leave the UK and relocate to Europe. If they are keen to be based in the EU, rising wage bills will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. This is before you add in tariffs that the EU may impose on imports from the UK.

- Government may well be for the people, but it is the corporations that provide jobs, power the economy, and (in most cases) pay tax. Without competitive businesses, where will people work?

You seem to think leaving the EU will lead to a rise in wages - why do you think this? I think the opposite.

Of course these are all just opinions but the business leaders who signed the letter to The Times today must have been serious. My own employer signed it and I have never, ever known them to make a political statement before.

 

[Antman]

Which means prices will rise. I think it's a disgrace how we treat our elderly but how much worse will it be when there is no longer a supply of cheap labour to look after them?

There are simply not enough health care professionals to keep the NHS running, so regardless of whether we are in the EU or not we will need migrant workers. Of course, being outside the EU may make the UK a less attractive destination and therefore mean we have to pay more to attract healthcare professionals.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


You are making the assumption that large corporations will stay in the UK and simply increase wages if they find themselves short of workers as a result of the exit. This is unlikely because:

- If they see their wage bill rising, then manufacturing companies may well leave the UK and relocate to Europe. If they are keen to be based in the EU, rising wage bills will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. This is before you add in tariffs that the EU may impose on imports from the UK.

- Government may well be for the people, but it is the corporations that provide jobs, power the economy, and (in most cases) pay tax. Without competitive businesses, where will people work?

You seem to think leaving the EU will lead to a rise in wages - why do you think this? I think the opposite.

Of course these are all just opinions but the business leaders who signed the letter to The Times today must have been serious. My own employer signed it and I have never, ever known them to make a political statement before.

Wages will rise because their will no longer be an endless supply of cheap labour.

 

[Mvann]

Presumably we will also impose the said same tariffs to imports from Europe. Everybody loses then.

 

[DelayRepay]

Wages will rise because their will no longer be an endless supply of cheap labour.

Assuming:
- We don't continue to participate in a free movement of labour arrangement and
- Everything else remains equal

Then I agree wages will rise, as will prices to cover the increased labour costs.

However, this simple assumption doesn't take account of companies leaving the UK or reducing production as it is no longer advantageous to manufacture products for export to the EU here. A combination of potential EU trade tariffs and more expensive labour could simply lead to companies relocating part or all of their operations to Poland.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Presumably we will also impose the said same tariffs to imports from Europe. Everybody loses then.

But you assume the small, independent UK will have the same clout as 27 EU member states. If we impose tariffs on them, it won't have as much impact because the proportion of each EU country's exports coming to the UK is small.

 

[anme]

I've no idea if your claim is true or not, but it does lead to the obvious question, if everyone seems so convinced that an out vote is on a par with Armageddon, why would these EU citizens acquire UK citizenship and why would they want to stay in a country divorced from the EU?

Because people build their lives in a particular place, with a job and relationships and friends? Surely even "no" supporters understand basic human needs such as those?!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Wages will rise because their will no longer be an endless supply of cheap labour.

That assumes that demand does not fall. Please read up on the some basic economics before making such statements.

 

[deltic]

Wages will rise because their will no longer be an endless supply of cheap labour.

For globally traded goods, wages will only rise if productivity rises - UK has one of the lowest levels of productivity in the developed world partly because of an almost endless supply of cheap labour. Low wages have led to limited automation - if there is pressure to raise wages than there will be moves towards greater automation.

 

[anme]

I certainly don't see anybody who is here legally being forcibly being removed in the foreseeable future

That is entirely speculation on your part. It could well be that people are required to leave.

 

[Mvann]

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


But you assume the small, independent UK will have the same clout as 27 EU member states. If we impose tariffs on them, it won't have as much impact because the proportion of each EU country's exports coming to the UK is small.[/QUOTE]

Are we talking of total exports or just exports within the present EU? Some of the EU Countries exports to the uk are quite high in just inter EU terms. I have seen a report in one of the financial papers saying which countries could be hit the worst on the export front.

 

[Dave1987]

Surely the fact that most of our exported goods are exported to the EU would mean a Brexit would be suicidal for British manufacturing?

 

[DelayRepay]

Are we talking of total exports or just exports within the present EU? Some of the EU Countries exports to the uk are quite high in just inter EU terms. I have seen a report in one of the financial papers saying which countries could be hit the worst on the export front.

The statistic I read was 45% of the UK's exports are to the EU, whereas less than 10% of the rest of the EU's exports come to the UK. If it came to imposing tariffs, they could hurt us more than we could hurt them. And they would simply be acting in the interests of their members.

Then we get into how we can avoid this by signing a free trade agreement with the EU... but that goes against most of the arguments I've heard for leaving...

 

[Mvann]

Surely the fact that most of our exported goods are exported to the EU would mean a Brexit would be suicidal for British manufacturing?

Not sure what the split on manufactured goods are, but total exports last year on a monthly basis ranged from between 38 and 49 % of total exports to the EU where as imports where between 49 and 54 %

 

[miami]

I didn't say anything about prices and taxes rising

You said wages are going to go up. That means that
1) People are going to be laid off
Or
2) The wage bill will rise

If the wage bill rises then prices will have to increase (or taxes in the case of the NHS)

If people are laid off then taxes will increase to pay the dole.

 

[Whistler40145]

I'm unsure whether to stay in or get out of the EU.

If I was a politician, I'd have more of an idea.

I presume it boils down to what do we benefit from if we stay in versus what are we depriving ourselves from if we leave?

 

[miami]

From a train perspective too, nothing will change on the eurostar.

So how will our borders become more secure?

Use the money saved to do something, anything. 20bn a year is not an insignificant amount.

It's about 1% of the GDP. You could leave work half an hour early on a friday if everything else stays the same.

- it will affect our jobs - in a good way I reckon, it will stop large corporations importing cheap labour at the drop of a hat

How many jobs are wedded to the UK, and how many could be off-shored to Poland/Bangladesh/Wherever?

That is all nonsense.

These were questions, disappointing you think questions are nonsense.

Of course they won't be deported, it just means that they will have to retrospectively apply for a working visa, that's all.

And if they don't pass the visa test?

You seem to think that all people who are deported are all families and children and people who've never done any harm to anyone. Poppycock.

How many people will you deport? What does harm mean? Fraud? Fare evasion? Bylaw prosecution? Penalty fare? Careless driving? Speeding Ticket? Parking fine?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The statistic I read was 45% of the UK's exports are to the EU, whereas less than 10% of the rest of the EU's exports come to the UK. If it came to imposing tariffs, they could hurt us more than we could hurt them. And they would simply be acting in the interests of their members.

Then we get into how we can avoid this by signing a free trade agreement with the EU... but that goes against most of the arguments I've heard for leaving...

I assume if we had a free-trade agreement with the EU would we need to be doing things like meeting EU Regulations on the shape of bananas?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'm not particularly worried about people who have already emigrated, although I would certainly advise against complacency, but my main concern is for people who have yet to leave thei original country.

Concerns in what way? On the assumption you're talking about EU citizens, will you require them to have visas to visit the UK? Will you instigate passport controls on the Ireland/Northern Ireland border?