Should the Manchester - Milford Haven be split at Cardiff?

[RailWonderer]

Whenever I have seen this service it is always delayed by at least several minutes. Do northeners really need a 6 hour long direct service to rural Wales? Dare I say it, but XC could serve the northern part although the DfT has long seen them like a mess they don't want to touch with a bargepole and has thus largely left XC alone. The other option is TfW split the service to increase reliability and make sure a 175 serves the northern part every hour instead of a 153. Is there any good reason to keep it as it is?

 

[JonathanH]

The other option is TfW split the service to increase reliability and make sure a 175 serves the northern part every hour instead of a 153. Is there any good reason to keep it as it is?

It does seem to get restarted in Cardiff if there are substantial issues either side. Not clear whether there is always spare trains and crew to do this though.

 

[Philip]

Half of the services will be split in the upcoming December timetable.

 

[py_megapixel]

I often wonder whether, if the return of an hourly Manchester-Bristol service is not imminent, the service pattern would be better as Manchester - Birmingham - Gloucester - Cardiff - [wherever], with WMT running a Crewe-Hereford stopper to fill in the gap.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Whenever I have seen this service it is always delayed by at least several minutes. Do northeners really need a 6 hour long direct service to rural Wales? Dare I say it, but XC could serve the northern part although the DfT has long seen them like a mess they don't want to touch with a bargepole and has thus largely left XC alone. The other option is TfW split the service to increase reliability and make sure a 175 serves the northern part every hour instead of a 153. Is there any good reason to keep it as it is?

I have to be honest, the answer must be yes. Even if the train wasn’t a mammoth performance risk, there’s definitely something in it that makes me uneasy.

It would probably be rather sensible to make the Manchester service, especially if it becomes loco-hauled, a Swansea every two hours, connecting with a Carmarthen shuttle, and then the other two-hourly being a Cardiff, connecting with a Milford Haven.

That would not be a bad trade-off, assuming you can make that work within the timetable.

It would also aid diagramming and crewing, when you look at the nature of the beasts. If you can release the capacity, you might be able to make other improvements locally. I’m especially thinking of how west of Cardiff the calling pattern is almost always different, so to come up with something that is far more standardised would be helpful.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I often wonder whether, if the return of an hourly Manchester-Bristol service is not imminent, the service pattern would be better as Manchester - Birmingham - Gloucester - Cardiff - [wherever], with WMT running a Crewe-Hereford stopper to fill in the gap.

How would people wishing to travel from Shrewsbury to Abergavenny fare under the final part of your posting.

 

[py_megapixel]

How would people wishing to travel from Shrewsbury to Abergavenny fare under the final part of your posting.

Fair question... is that a particularly popular journey? My feeling was that relieving congestion between Manchester and Birmingham and onwards towards the south west would be a more helpful use of the stock/crew.

There would of course still be the Holyhead-Cardiff services every few hours.

 

[John Luxton]

Always seems a slightly bizarre service and wonder why is was devised.

Was the ghost of the never completed Manchester and Milford Railway still lurking in the ether somewhere?

Manchester to Cardiff seems sensible, as would Swansea or even Pembroke Dock given its greater holiday potential for those travelling to Tenby.

 

[JonathanH]

Manchester to Cardiff seems sensible, as would Swansea or even Pembroke Dock given its greater holiday potential for those travelling to Tenby.

Holiday travel isn't the only reason to run trains to West Wales. Pembroke Dock is a bit awkward to run long distance to in any case.

Isnt the point that this is one of those 'overlapping flows' services? It is worthwhile running across Cardiff to get to Swansea. It is worthwhile running through trains from Cardiff to Carmarthen. Running through to Milfird Haven makes sense with the track layout at Carmarthen, as there would only otherwise have to be two trains there for connections to Milford Haven.

 

[30907]

The problem is the London-W Wales connection: to make that workable, the Manchester-Swansea has to run immediately before/after the Paddington all the way from Newport. Without a significant increase in services, it's impossible to satisfy all the demands, and I don't know which the most important flows (passenger numbers not politically!) are.

I would explore using the Mk4 sets to run a 2-hourly fast Swansea-Shrewsbury continuing alternately to Manchester and Holyhead, but that doesn't fit with NR's liking for hourly interval services, nor probably with WAG's desires (and I haven't checked if it acutally works!)

 

[Western 52]

For those of us who live in west Wales the through trains to Crewe and Manchester are very useful and convenient, and yes we do use them beyond Cardiff. I recently went up to Edinburgh with just one change in Crewe, I often need to travel to Manchester. Many others find the through trains useful, and of course we can get a decent seat before the train fills up at Swansea or Cardiff!

 

[cle]

I would think maybe a Bristol to South and West Wales service more useful, and appropriate.

I'd like to see the Manchester (at a push Swansea) service sped up, less stops and a faster run. With more services for the Marches - or the proposed Liverpool-Cardiff running hourly, or alternating with a slower Crewe service perhaps - which connects to Manchester, Liverpool and more.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Without looking at the set diagrams , it is perhaps unfortunate that a 3 car 175 may be lost west of Carmarthen when it could be be better used east of said settlement.. (at busy periods)

 

[Caaardiff]

I often wonder whether, if the return of an hourly Manchester-Bristol service is not imminent, the service pattern would be better as Manchester - Birmingham - Gloucester - Cardiff - [wherever], with WMT running a Crewe-Hereford stopper to fill in the gap.

I'd like to see TfW take over Cardiff - Birmingham from XC anyway, using Class 231's. But i'm not sure of what benefit extending to Manchester would bring. Currently Cardiff - Birmingham connecting to Birmingham - Manchester is a 3hr38 min journey with a 12 minute connection at New Street. As a through service that time saving wouldn't be much better than the current Cardiff - Manchester marches route at 3h21.The Mk4 service will hugely improve the passenger offering on this route, albeit at 2hrly.

Manchester to Cardiff seems sensible, as would Swansea or even Pembroke Dock given its greater holiday potential for those travelling to Tenby.

Demand for Pembrokeshire has increased since Covid and that part of West Wales has become an even more desirable holiday destination, but the train service is dire considering there's lines that run through most of that part of the country.

I'd rather see:

- Cheltenham - Milford Haven 2 hourly all stops (Class 231 3 car)
- Maesteg - Cheltenham 2 hourly
- Maesteg - Ebbw Vale 2 hourly
- Cardiff - Ebbw Vale 2 hourly
Meaning the 2 hourly Milford Haven is maintained on South Wales Mainline, hourly Cheltenham, Maesteg and Ebbw Vale are maintained.

- Manchester - Swansea/Tenby 197 as a 5 car service as far as Cardiff then splits. Front 3 car carries on to Swansea calling Swanline stops and rear 2 car carries on all stops to Tenby (Spring/summer) or Carmarthen (autumn/winter) and runs via the district line. Swansea - Pembroke service remains as current 2 hourly.
GWR Connections to Tenby can be made at Newport or Cardiff or stations missed by running via the district line or as far as Pembroke Dock can be made at Swansea instead. As far as i'm aware timings should work increasing Carmarthen - Tenby to hourly.
- Manchester - Cardiff Mk4 2hrly service with fewer stops to improve journey times.

Somewhere in the mix are Cardiff/Swansea - Fishguard services to plug any gaps.
There is a 2 hourly district line service for when new district stations open.
Swanline stations get an hourly service.

Cardiff - Holyhead/Liverpool services call all stations towards Shrewsbury so all smaller stations will be at least hourly.
Cardiff - Manchester Mk4 services have fewer stops to improve journey times. Only calling Newport, Cwmbran, Abergavenny, Hereford, Shrewsbury, Crewe, Wilmslow (For Airport), Stockport.
Tenby/Swansea - Manchester limited stops Cardiff - Shrewsbury. As above Mk4 service but also calling Leominster and Ludlow.

The issues with starting/terminating West Wales services at Cardiff will be platform space as there'll also be the mk4 Manchester and Holyhead/Liverpool services terminating, as well as GWR services from the South West. Running Cheltenham through the Milford Haven and changing some services to Ebbw Vale running through from Maesteg will also reduce the number of terminating/starting Ebbw Vale services that shunt out.

 

[cle]

Potentially some could extend to Swansea if Cardiff platforming is difficult.

I think another frequency up the Marches to Crewe would be more useful - gives local service and to all of the connections. Has the right bays available. Whereas Liverpool/Holyhead could do with being semi-fast, at least on the southern stretches with other services.

 

[py_megapixel]

I'd like to see TfW take over Cardiff - Birmingham from XC anyway, using Class 231's. But i'm not sure of what benefit extending to Manchester would bring. Currently Cardiff - Birmingham connecting to Birmingham - Manchester is a 3hr38 min journey with a 12 minute connection at New Street. As a through service that time saving wouldn't be much better than the current Cardiff - Manchester marches route at 3h21.The Mk4 service will hugely improve the passenger offering on this route, albeit at 2hrly.

For a moment, I thought the 231s were the Vivarail D-stock conversions... I thought you can't be serious about that! (for the benefit of other readers, they are Stadler FLIRTs)

In theory it would make sense for Cardiff-Birmingham to be TfW, but that service runs through to Nottingham which is quite a long way out of their area, and you can't swap it with another Birmingham terminator from that direction as there isn't one. I don't know whether it could be split, with a Nottingham-Birmingham portion run by XC, and then Cardiff-Birmingham (and continuing to Manchester) run by TfW.

The purpose of my suggestion about Manchester-Cardiff via Birmingham wasn't actually anything to do with journey time savings - it was more about relieving the overcrowding on the current Manchester-Bournemouth services, which currently provide the only direct trains between between Manchester and Birmingham.

 

[Philip]

Cardiff - Manchester Mk4 services have fewer stops to improve journey times. Only calling Newport, Cwmbran, Abergavenny, Hereford, Shrewsbury, Crewe, Wilmslow (For Airport), Stockport.
Tenby/Swansea - Manchester limited stops Cardiff - Shrewsbury. As above Mk4 service but also calling Leominster and Ludlow.

I think the 197 services should call at Nantwich, Whitchurch and Wem too, so that these services have hourly services to Crewe and Shrewsbury, and every two hours to Manchester and South Wales.

 

[Esker-pades]

I have to be honest, the answer must be yes. Even if the train wasn’t a mammoth performance risk, there’s definitely something in it that makes me uneasy.

It would probably be rather sensible to make the Manchester service, especially if it becomes loco-hauled, a Swansea every two hours, connecting with a Carmarthen shuttle, and then the other two-hourly being a Cardiff, connecting with a Milford Haven.

That would not be a bad trade-off, assuming you can make that work within the timetable.

It would also aid diagramming and crewing, when you look at the nature of the beasts. If you can release the capacity, you might be able to make other improvements locally. I’m especially thinking of how west of Cardiff the calling pattern is almost always different, so to come up with something that is far more standardised would be helpful.

Sadly not possible. If one has a 1tp2h pattern that's loco-hauled, the turnaround at Swansea would be ~10 minutes, which would not work.

Say the even hours off Manchester are loco-hauled, that puts one down in Cardiff just over 3 hours later (IE: ~odd hour:45). That gives plenty of time to refuel at Canton to form the ~even hour:50 back to Manchester (arriving at ~even hour:11 to complete the circuit).

The single track sections would mean that your 1tp2h from Manchester to Milford would have a very long turnaround at Milford with trains passing at Haverfordwest. That's why the pattern runs Cardiff to Milford Haven west, but Milford Haven to Manchester east.

Not ideal, but it has been looked at.