Should the Birmingham - Stansted service continue in its current form post-HS2?

[ABB125]

Wigston grade separation is off the table now.

Is that permanently, or temporarily? I assume 4-tracking through Leicester is still going ahead though (although if Wigston isn't going to be grade-separated, surely that will cause a lot of issues with freights crossing over to the Nuneaton line from the eastern pair of tracks)?

 

[Doctor Fegg]

As a former commuter on the route, there’s little traffic to/from Birmingham beyond Peterboro’, except at busy leisure times, eg Fri afternoon / evening and Sunday pm. But splitting it there would be difficult.

In any event what would be the benefit of splitting it? If it’s to save resource (ie units and crew) then the split needs to enable that, which in this case very likely means somewhere loses service.

There is of course already a part-way service on the route - Birmingham-Leicester.

Extending the Leicester terminators to Peterborough would be a relatively quick win. Assuming the Leicester turnaround time (~30 mins) is simply moved to Peterborough, and given that Leicester-Peterborough each way is 55 mins, would that require just two extra units? (Not that two extra 170s is a "just" scenario...)

 

[Aictos]

There is of course already a part-way service on the route - Birmingham-Leicester.

Extending the Leicester terminators to Peterborough would be a relatively quick win. Assuming the Leicester turnaround time (~30 mins) is simply moved to Peterborough, and given that Leicester-Peterborough each way is 55 mins, would that require just two extra units? (Not that two extra 170s is a "just" scenario...)

Or you could just dump the Cambridge to Stansted Airport leg of the Birmingham New Street to Stansted Airport and use the northern bay platforms at Cambridge as the terminus which might mean it's possible to extend the existing Birmingham New Street to Leicester services to Peterborough.

That should save nearly 2hrs by not operating between Cambridge and Stansted Airport as there are Greater Anglia alternatives.

It's 30 mins from Cambridge to Stansted Airport, 40 min turnaround time then 30 mins back to Cambridge.

In Birmingham New Street, a far busier station by comparison the services have no more then 12 mins so by cutting out the excess time running to Stansted Airport and having a 12/15 minute turnaround at Cambridge, it should be possible to extend the Leicester stoppers without needing extra trains.

 

[The Planner]

Is that permanently, or temporarily? I assume 4-tracking through Leicester is still going ahead though (although if Wigston isn't going to be grade-separated, surely that will cause a lot of issues with freights crossing over to the Nuneaton line from the eastern pair of tracks)?

Pretty sure there is a link to the layout proposed in the thread about Leicester somewhere. The freight is only a problem if you can't timetable it!

 

[ABB125]

Pretty sure there is a link to the layout proposed in the thread about Leicester somewhere. The freight is only a problem if you can't timetable it!

Ok, thanks. Is there (going to be) passive provision for grade-separation as and when the upgrade happens?

 

[TheBigD]

My two penneth worth...

A separate local service every 30 minutes between Leicester and Birmingham (Will almost certainly need the Bordersley cords to run in to Moor Street, probably Water Orton to Saltley improvements as well).

Extend the current Birmingham-Leicester service through to Cambridge. If turn rounds at Stansted can be reduced (currently around 45 minutes), and similarly at Cambridge (would need to be around 20 minutes) you would only need 3 extra units to achieve it.

I doubt anything will change on this route until the Ely remodelling is done.

 

[cle]

If nothing more can cross through Ely, then an extending the Leicester terminator to Peterborough seems the easiest approach. Great for Stamford, Oakham and Melton to have a decent service, all use their scant service well enough.

If Stansted was dropped (for stock utilization reasons) and Cambridge was the terminating point, that Ely path is still spoken for. So replacing a Stansted frequency to Cambridge would likely need to terminate at Cambridge. But perhaps it would be a good one to stop at both South and North - and provide more of a local commuter service into both Cambridge and Stansted, and the Norwich could become the express.

 

[option]

As someone from Birmingham, I can give a list of airports used by me, family & friends;

Birmingham
Manchester
Heathrow

So I don't understand the Stansted service from a customer point of view.
It's a strange service anyway, as it's an XC service that doesn't get to a major geographic/physical end point, eg Norwich, Ipswich.

 

[Ianno87]

It's a strange service anyway, as it's an XC service that doesn't get to a major geographic/physical end point, eg Norwich, Ipswich.

It's really a Birmingham-Cambridge service, extended to Stansted for the sake of one extra unit.

 

[Aictos]

It's really a Birmingham-Cambridge service, extended to Stansted for the sake of one extra unit.

Which can be served by Greater Anglia by extending all their Norwich to Cambridge services to Stansted Airport which if they use platform 1/4 means if the Cross Country services get cut back to Cambridge using platform 5/6 means step free access for people interchanging there.

Equally if they cut the XC service to Peterborough, it would be possible to operate 2tph between Birmingham and Peterborough without needing extra units.

Anyone wanting Cambridge can use East Midlands or Greater Anglia and change at Ely

 

[30907]

It's really a Birmingham-Cambridge service, extended to Stansted for the sake of one extra unit.

And when introduced the only other service that could have been extended from Cambridge was the Ipswich (not sure that was even hourly then!) - Peterborough, Leicester "and connections" was a better bet, though I wonder if extending the Norwich would now be better.

 

[75A]

How many people in the area between Birmingham to Leicester fly from Stansted?
In my opinion not very many, we live bang in the middle of this patch and would only ever go from Birmingham unless the snotty airlines like BA make us go to Thiefrow.

 

[Bald Rick]

How many people in the area between Birmingham to Leicester fly from Stansted?
In my opinion not very many, we live bang in the middle of this patch and would only ever go from Birmingham unless the snotty airlines like BA make us go to Thiefrow.

Not many. However it is many more from Ely and particularly Cambridge.

 

[JonathanH]

Not many. However it is many more from Ely and particularly Cambridge.

They have a Greater Anglia service though. This service duplicates other services all the way from Peterborough to Stansted (although obviously not through flows). A potential saving is on offer if Arriva Traincare could be shut at Cambridge and CrossCountry would save the lease cost of three units by running only Birmingham to Peterborough, not to mention a traincrew depot at Cambridge.

Isn't this precisely the kind of duplication the new railway will be looking to remove? Indeed, it would appear to me that Greater Anglia could take over a Norwich to Peterborough service, EMR could run Nottingham to Grantham only and Greater Anglia could be the sole operator in East Anglia other than the Kings Lynn route.

 

[RT4038]

They have a Greater Anglia service though. This service duplicates other services all the way from Peterborough to Stansted (although obviously not through flows). A potential saving is on offer if Arriva Traincare could be shut at Cambridge and CrossCountry would save the lease cost of three units by running only Birmingham to Peterborough, not to mention a traincrew depot at Cambridge.

Isn't this precisely the kind of duplication the new railway will be looking to remove?

If it is then there will be an awful lot of service withdrawals and frequency reductions then.

 

[Bald Rick]

They have a Greater Anglia service though.

Only relatively recently, and only once an hour, which pre Covid wasn’t really enough for Cambridge - Stansted.

I agree this service overlaps with many others, but then so does Norwich - Liverpool.

 

[David Goddard]

Like many Cross Country, and indeed lots of other rail services in the UK, this route is not about end to end travel, it serves lots of different flows, some of which will be end to end but many will be between intermediate points, which may overlap or adjoin so the through train is very useful.
Yes you could say that people in Birmingham don't go to Stansted Airport, but those in Leicester or Peterborough may well do.
Its fine to say "there are other trains from Cambridge to Stansted" but when there is a family of four with luggage this is not an attractive option, even with a same platform interchange at Ely.

Fully support extending the second XC service to Peterborough, and indeed on into East Anglia.
This presents several options, including but not exclusively:
*Bi-hourly to Norwich
*Hourly to Norwich
*Hourly to Ely then bi hourly to Norwich or Ipswich, the latter in the opposite hour to the GA path and assuming that GA does not make their train hourly.

This would be a further boost to the Breckland line, but if this meant too many trains between Ely / Peterborough & Norwich then they could always use the West Curve as the loco hauled services did until the late 1980s .

 

[RailWonderer]

To draw it back to the OP's question about flows generally rather than demand for Stansted, I last used the line a few days ago and the biggest flow is Cambridge - Peterborough for connections to the North, with smaller overlapping flows from Cambridge/Peterboro' to Stamford, Oakham and Melton Mobray. Not many use it beyond Leicester.

If a 2nd tph was added, it should probably serve Leicester - Cambridge and possibly be tacked onto the existing B'ham - Leicester stopper. The Stansted extension should be axed so it can use the northern bay at Cambridge. GA could extend the Ipswich to Stansted if Cambridge - Stansted needs a 2nd tph that badly or an EMU shuttle.

 

[BrianW]

Lots of suggestions: a, b or c to X, Y and/or Z. Great to have this 'Cambridge Blue sky thinking'.
Hopefully somewhere someone is looking at pulling together data on who currently (or recently, pre-Covid) travels where, when, how often etc.
I recognise that this doesn't capture the journeys that might have been made had they been easier, cheaper or even possible.
It also requires a lot of supposition/ estimation/ 'informed guesswork' etc as to the effect of HS2.
Other threads testify to issues relating to failed connections on journeys that were previously a through train.
In passing, I was reminded about the Hook Continental- I guess this is for some its 21st Century 'equivalent'.
What would a 'blank sheet' suggest?

 

[Blurb]

I think the answer to this question lies in understanding the demand/travel needs from places like Stamford, Oakham and Melton. Is there a clamour to be able to travel to Birmingham more frequently or would it be better to attract new travellers to rail by serving other destinations such as Nottingham directly (and with a competitive journey time).

 

[Ianno87]

To draw it back to the OP's question about flows generally rather than demand for Stansted, I last used the line a few days ago and the biggest flow is Cambridge - Peterborough for connections to the North, with smaller overlapping flows from Cambridge/Peterboro' to Stamford, Oakham and Melton Mobray. Not many use it beyond Leicester.

If a 2nd tph was added, it should probably serve Leicester - Cambridge and possibly be tacked onto the existing B'ham - Leicester stopper. The Stansted extension should be axed so it can use the northern bay at Cambridge. GA could extend the Ipswich to Stansted if Cambridge - Stansted needs a 2nd tph that badly or an EMU shuttle.

I think the answer to this question lies in understanding the demand/travel needs from places like Stamford, Oakham and Melton. Is there a clamour to be able to travel to Birmingham more frequently or would it be better to attract new travellers to rail by serving other destinations such as Nottingham directly (and with a competitive journey time).

In pre-Covid times, the level of cross-Leicester demand was certainly non-trivial, but predominantly passengers travelling Peterborough/Stamford/Oakham/Melton to Birmingham.

I get the impression that the likes of Stamford act as 'railheads' for a much larger area to reach Birmingham.

 

[Bald Rick]

I get the impression that the likes of Stamford act as 'railheads' for a much larger area to reach Birmingham

Same with Melton; that drags people from the other side of Grantham.

 

[cle]

Stamford and Oakham traffic is vast majority to Peterborough, i.e. to London. Those economies are not very connected to Birmingham especially.

 

[RailWonderer]

In pre-Covid times, the level of cross-Leicester demand was certainly non-trivial, but predominantly passengers travelling Peterborough/Stamford/Oakham/Melton to Birmingham.

I get the impression that the likes of Stamford act as 'railheads' for a much larger area to reach Birmingham.

I always saw the traffic in Stamford and such towns as changing at Peterboro' for London or days out in Cambs rather than Birmingham, Stamford - Brum, which is 90 mins.
Edit: Towards Birmingham I meant could mostly only be for work reasons.

 

[Ianno87]

I always saw the traffic in Stamford and such towns as changing at Peterboro' for London or days out in Cambs rather than Birmingham, Stamford - Brum is 90 mins.

Yes, I think Stamford<>Brum traffic is predominantly commuter/business. Leisure traffic would be more headed towards Peterborough/London/Cambridge.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

My recollections from when I lived in Oakham are that there's a fair amount of westbound commuter traffic to Leicester; some leisure traffic to Leicester, but less than to Peterborough; and a bit of traffic to Nuneaton and Birmingham for WCML/XC connections. But certainly yes, Peterborough was the biggest destination, either in itself or for connections to London.

That was a fair while ago, but the service appears to have barely changed, other than the introduction of the occasional St Pancras service over Harringworth Viaduct.

 

[Blurb]

I wonder how many people are driving to destinations like Nottingham that are poorly served from Oakham/Melton/Stamford (uncompetitive journey time travelling indirectly by rail). I think demand needs to be considered in the context of overall travel demand, rather than just that part that rail already sees.

 

[BrianW]

I wonder how many people are driving to destinations like Nottingham that are poorly served from Oakham/Melton/Stamford (uncompetitive journey time travelling indirectly by rail). I think demand needs to be considered in the context of overall travel demand, rather than just that part that rail already sees.

Good point Blurb- and Welcome. This is something I think Beeching failed to take into account- that potential travellers weigh up the WHOLE journey.

 

[cle]

Good point Blurb- and Welcome. This is something I think Beeching failed to take into account- that potential travellers weigh up the WHOLE journey.

People don't consider the opportunity cost in rail - i.e. cars off the roads within existing capacity, in this case. Funnily enough, in freight it's aways in the context of lorries off the road. Cars tend to be single passenger, even worse than a full lorry in terms of logistics!