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Should some HS2 trains be 250m long?

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HSTEd

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For the total cost of HS2?? GWML Electrification cost £2.8 billion, HS2 Phase 1 alone is costing £40 billion, and is already £1.2 billion over that budget, and we haven't even really started work on a station.
THere was rather more to the Great Western Modernisation than Electrification.

Reading station rebuild cost ~£900m alone!
So what is your suggestion? We just continue to let the rest of the country decay, and in 20 years we just have HS2 and HS1, which themselves will be decaying by that point? What I'm suggesting is spending that money on maintaining the rest of the country, and upgrades that are needed to keep services up to spec.
We stop trying to kid ourselves that the bulk of our railway infrastructure is at all fit for purpose.
Upgrades will just result in ever more money being thrown in the bottomless pit that is the classic railway, that is being pushed far harder than it is capable of economically.

unless we're planning on carting empty air around, and then you have to split fleets for places that can't handle 250m.
250m is not significantly longer than a 9-car IEP, and there are a hell of a lot of those running around!

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And just to pick up on this again, you're suggesting HS2 hasn't already overblown its budget? The official figures are low because the government has held back on actually setting one, but given it is already projected to cost more than double its original cost when it was first envisaged, and a leg of it has had to be cut because of its cost, it is no more of a failure than the GWRM was already, and it isn't even nearly finished, in fact half of that cost is going on parts we haven't even broken ground on, nor are the immediate plans to.
OFcourse its a mess and ofcourse it has blown its budget, but the reality is we are going to get far more capability than an upgrade programme of the same cost would, once the inevitable overruns in the upgrade programme are factored in.
 
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Benjwri

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THere was rather more to the Great Western Modernisation than Electrification.

Reading station rebuild cost ~£900m alone!
I chose electrification because my point was that we need to focus on things like that, and actually getting the network up to scratch, rather than massive new stations, which ties into your point here:
We stop trying to kid ourselves that the bulk of our railway infrastructure is at all fit for purpose.
No it isn’t, which is my point, but the solution isn’t building a massive new HS line in one area, because for most of the country that isn’t even viable, and the current alignment of track is the only possible one.

Not to mention, especially with legs cut, HS2 is a pretty useless investment alone. It’s only of value because of the interchange opportunities It presents with the current network. If that doesn’t get maintained HS2 will fail.

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OFcourse its a mess and ofcourse it has blown its budget, but the reality is we are going to get far more capability than an upgrade programme of the same cost would, once the inevitable overruns in the upgrade programme are factored in.
To be honest my point wasn’t about a massive upgrade program, but about cheaper improvements that make a big difference.

To take a local example, MetroWest Phase 1 has doubled the frequency of two lines, serving two cities, and is planned to reopen a closed line, at a cost of £53 million. That’s 0.1% of the HS2 phase 1 budget, which has benefited, depending on what usage forecasts you listen to, at least 0.1% of the HS2 forecast usage.

Or what about a new DMU fleet for GWR? Something that would benefit almost the entire network, which is currently plagued by short forms, overcrowding and breakdowns. Something that would come at the cost of around 5% if HS2 Phase 1.
 
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Nick Ashwell

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Or what about a new DMU fleet for GWR? Something that would benefit almost the entire network, which is currently plagued by short forms, overcrowding and breakdowns. Something that would come at the cost of around 5% if HS2 Phase 1.
This argument doesn't fly, it's already happening under Project Churchward or whatever it's called. And it isn't going to be DMUs which would need to be scrapped rather quickly due to the end of diesel only operation
 

Benjwri

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This argument doesn't fly, it's already happening under Project Churchward or whatever it's called. And it isn't going to be DMUs which would need to be scrapped rather quickly due to the end of diesel only operation
The examples above weren’t, they were funded by local government , and the £15 million from the DfT had to be fought tooth and nail for, meanwhile HS2 is free to run multitudes over that amount over budget in a month. Yes there is some stuff happening, but as far as I’m aware no more than a few lines, the level of it is nowhere near proportional to the level of spending on HS2, no matter what metric you measure by.

As for your comment on scrapping DMUs it doesn’t seem to have been an issue for the TfW or EMR orders, but regardless:
- The west would be more than happy to have hand me downs, give somewhere else emus and cascade to the west, anything is better than currently
- Give the west Bi-Modes, they can run on electric through Cardiff, Swindon and to the Thames Valley Lines, all the lines GWR runs on are never being electrified
- If you think the government is electrifying more than a small amount of the west in these trains lifetimes you’re kidding yourself, there will always be diesel parts of the network.

Regardless there are most definitely places that need new EMUs.
 

Trainbike46

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The examples above weren’t, they were funded by local government , and the £15 million from the DfT had to be fought tooth and nail for, meanwhile HS2 is free to run multitudes over that amount over budget in a month. Yes there is some stuff happening, but as far as I’m aware no more than a few lines, the level of it is nowhere near proportional to the level of spending on HS2, no matter what metric you measure by.

As for your comment on scrapping DMUs it doesn’t seem to have been an issue for the TfW or EMR orders, but regardless:
- The west would be more than happy to have hand me downs, give somewhere else emus and cascade to the west, anything is better than currently
- Give the west Bi-Modes, they can run on electric through Cardiff, Swindon and to the Thames Valley Lines, all the lines GWR runs on are never being electrified
- If you think the government is electrifying more than a small amount of the west in these trains lifetimes you’re kidding yourself, there will always be diesel parts of the network.

Regardless there are most definitely places that need new EMUs.
Nick Ashwell's reply was perfectly relevant to the part of your post they were replying to.

EMR hasn't ordered any new diesel only stock; They got cascaded 170s, cascaded 360s and new bi-mode 810s. The 810s, like all 80x with diesel engines, can have their diesel engines removed later if/when electrification catches up.

TfW (and also Northern and WMT) did order some new diesel only stock with the 19x, and these will probably not make it beyond 2040/2045/2050/pick your own railway diesel free year. But TfW (and Greater Anglia) did (also) buy trains that are designed to be turned into EMUs or fitted with alternative traction in the future, the 756s even already have batteries. My personal hope for project churchward is something like the FLIRT (in that it should have level boarding, be either zero-emissions or prepared to become zero emissions in the future, and have a high-quality passenger environment like the GA FLIRTS), because the GWR branches & local services do deserve that. I'm not aware of any suitable stock being available for a cascade to GWR, so that's not an option.

It is also quite important to note that HS2 isn't intending to replace it's fleet early. It is (currently) ordering a fleet of 200m trains with 550 seats each that are intended to last a long time, giving a capacity of 1100 seats for a 2x200m set. I think that is the right strategy, with the option of ordering captive stock in the future if/when the classic-compatible stock turns out to be insufficient for demand. The mistake is in not building the Golborne spur, not connecting to the east midlands & Leeds, and in government interference that unnecesarily drives cost up (for example, delaying key parts of the project to reduce spending in the coming financial year, even though it will increase total cost)

I recently watched this video on why construction projects frequently go over budget, and if you're interested it might be worth a watch:

But in any case, I don't think this is the right place to have another discussion over whether HS2 should be built, or what GWR should get to replace their aging DMU fleet.
 

Benjwri

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EMR hasn't ordered any new diesel only stock; They got cascaded 170s, cascaded 360s and new bi-mode 810s. The 810s, like all 80x with diesel engines, can have their diesel engines removed later if/when electrification catches up.
Apologies, I meant to refer to WMR, with the Class 196, a diesel train which entered service last year, to replace a newer fleet than GWR, and which has no option to convert to electric as far as I’m aware.
TfW (and also Northern and WMT) did order some new diesel only stock with the 19x, and these will probably not make it beyond 2040/2045/2050/pick your own railway diesel free year. But TfW (and Greater Anglia) did (also) buy trains that are designed to be turned into EMUs or fitted with alternative traction in the future, the 756s even already have batteries. My personal hope for project churchward is something like the FLIRT (in that it should have level boarding, be either zero-emissions or prepared to become zero emissions in the future, and have a high-quality passenger environment like the GA FLIRTS), because the GWR branches & local services do deserve that. I'm not aware of any suitable stock being available for a cascade to GWR, so that's not an option.
Project Churchward is effectively just a rumour though, and it’s been stated by meme era of the forum with inside knowledge that there won’t be an order till the end of the decade, then obvious they need to be designed, produced, tested. Anyone that thinks the 150 especially, but the 166s as well , are making it till then is kidding themselves. Something needs to be found until then, or the project brought forward, but we’re being told there is not the money and that is my point.
It is also quite important to note that HS2 isn't intending to replace its fleet early. It is (currently) ordering a fleet of 200m trains with 550 seats each that are intended to last a long time, giving a capacity of 1100 seats for a 2x200m set. I think that is the right strategy, with the option of ordering captive stock in the future if/when the classic-compatible stock turns out to be insufficient for demand. The mistake is in not building the Golborne spur, not connecting to the east midlands & Leeds, and in government interference that unnecesarily drives cost up (for example, delaying key parts of the project to reduce spending in the coming financial year, even though it will increase total cost)
Yes I think this has rather drifted away from my original point, as this was originally a reply to someone that suggested that they should replace their fleet early.
I recently watched this video on why construction projects frequently go over budget, and if you're interested it might be worth a watch:
Working in Civil Engineering I’m well aware of cost overruns, I brought it up in response to a poster who claimed modernisation programs aren’t feasible because if overrun, and I was pointing out HS2 has faced the same challenges.
 

jimm

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With a few exceptions (e.g. the Cotswold line and the Cornish locals), the 5 car IETs operated by GWR and LNER are a nuisance, not a benefit.
A nuisance for whom? Those who believe that all 'proper' express trains must be very, very long?

Do the Super Voyagers and the new Hitachi trains for the West Coast also fall into the nuisance category? Even if they allow the likes of Shrewsbury, Chester, Wrexham and the North Wales Coast to be served, without incurring the costs of using a 600-seat behemoth.

Even if you set aside the Department for Transport's plan for lots of coupling and uncoupling mid-journey, GWR was never going to get a nine-car IET to replace each of the HSTs, 180s and 166s that were being replaced/cascaded elsewhere, plus an allowance for extra capacity - even pre-pandemic when there were lots more commuters travelling Monday to Friday in the peaks. The East Coast fleet of HSTs and 91s+Mk4s was not exactly flexible, with precious few extensions off the main London-Leeda and London-Newcastle-Edinburgh runs.

Passengers on the Cheltenham/Gloucester route might also think that five-car sets are a benefit, when they now have an hourly service to and from London all day, instead of an HST every couple of hours outside the peaks, with a dmu to/from Swindon in between. People in Carmarthen and Llanelli will be getting an enhanced London service from May, thanks to the existence of five-car sets. Over in LNER territory people in Lincoln presumably quite like their current direct London services, as opposed to the previous non-existent service.

The five-car sets have allowed changes like these to happen and for different services to be tried out without breaking the bank - in the same way that the arrival of 166s on the Cotswold Line in the 1990s did - or requiring costly alterations to infrastructure to accommodate nine-car sets, which would probably fail value for money tests anyway for just a couple of trains a day.
 

Bletchleyite

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A nuisance for whom? Those who believe that all 'proper' express trains must be very, very long?

Their only benefit would be portion working, and there is hardly any of that going on. Other than that, and other than a few services like the Cotswold line where some 7 car units may have been of benefit, a double 5 car costs more to buy and maintain than a single 9 and costs more to staff properly (a trolley and first class steward only in half doesn't count) because they aren't gangwayed.

Do the Super Voyagers and the new Hitachi trains for the West Coast also fall into the nuisance category? Even if they allow the likes of Shrewsbury, Chester, Wrexham and the North Wales Coast to be served, without incurring the costs of using a 600-seat behemoth.

Those have a better case because they actually do portion work.

Even if you set aside the Department for Transport's plan for lots of coupling and uncoupling mid-journey, GWR was never going to get a nine-car IET to replace each of the HSTs, 180s and 166s that were being replaced/cascaded elsewhere, plus an allowance for extra capacity - even pre-pandemic when there were lots more commuters travelling Monday to Friday in the peaks. The East Coast fleet of HSTs and 91s+Mk4s was not exactly flexible, with precious few extensions off the main London-Leeda and London-Newcastle-Edinburgh runs.

I don't to be fair support the "occasional extensions" model. I prefer the approach involving a clockface timetable with planned connections, so a quality connection is available every single hour (or more), not an odd through train at a time of day that may not be convenient anyway. Keep it long, keep it frequent, keep it simple - the basis of Takt.
 

jimm

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Their only benefit would be portion working, and there is hardly any of that going on. Other than that, and other than a few services like the Cotswold line where some 7 car units may have been of benefit, a double 5 car costs more to buy and maintain than a single 9 and costs more to staff properly (a trolley and first class steward only in half doesn't count) because they aren't gangwayed.



Those have a better case because they actually do portion work.



I don't to be fair support the "occasional extensions" model. I prefer the approach involving a clockface timetable with planned connections, so a quality connection is available every single hour (or more), not an odd through train at a time of day that may not be convenient anyway. Keep it long, keep it frequent, keep it simple - the basis of Takt.
Taktfahrplan may work in Switzerland, where they have planned and invested for many decades to make it possible, plus they do not have British politicians and their attitudes towards public transport to contend with - and German attempts to achieve something similar remain mired in problems. As for France, off the TGV routes many of the timetables do a passable impersonation of BR services from the darkest days of the 1970s.

And what pray tell, do you suggest for the Cotswold Line? Because the London-Worcester/Malvern/Hereford operation it is not an occasional extension of a service, is it? But we are not going to get a hourly nine-car train each way, plus extras in the direction of the main peak flows, as it would be utter madness financially when it comes to operating costs.

Why is it that people who live nowhere near the Cotswold Line are so keen to keep volunteering it for seven-car trains? If GWR thought they would be a good idea, it could have made a case to the DfT as part of the 802 order, but it didn't. They would be too small for the busiest weekday peak and weekend Cotswold Line (or Cheltenham) services, too big for many of the off-peak runs and too small if something was needed to step up at short notice for a busy Bristol, South Wales or West Country duty.

The ability to step up the frequency of the Carmarthen service in May* rests entirely on availability of five-car IETs and portion working west of Swansea. Without this option being available (and the potential open access competition, of course), GWR probably would not bother, as no one is going to pay for the infrastructure work needed to fit nine-car sets in Carmarthen station. *Assuming, of course, that you accept six trains to/from London plus a pair to/from Bristol Parkway count as more than 'an odd through train'.

If commuting had not been hit hard by the pandemic, I have a sneaking suspicion that not quite so many nine-car sets would have been available at present to operate London to Penzance duties. Further changes to travel habits may well mean GWR has to do more juggling with which sets work where and when in years to come.

The LNER Lincoln-London service would probably not wash its face financially at the current frequency if worked by nine-car sets - and given the sentivities around any extra train movements in the Newark area, I cannot imagine that accommodating a clockface connection to/from Lincoln is top of the wishlist of Network Rail or the train operators there.
 
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