Should Northern and 195s run all Hope Valley services?

[Philip]

Would it be a good idea for Northern to take over the Man Airport-Cleethorpes and Liverpool-Nottingham services so that, along with the stopping service, the Hope Valley line is served by just the one operator? This would also involve a new order for more 3-car 195s, enough to cover all Cleethorpes and Nottingham diagrams in double formation.

This would simplify things a bit for the fares side of things and would allow Northern to set their own advance tickets for the fast services, potentially making the journey to Sheffield a lot cheaper than the TPE and EMR offerings; Northern advances are cheaper than those of most other TOCs. It'd also give Northern more regional express routes for their portfolio and allow TPE to focus more on their core North TPE route.

Class 195s would be quicker than 185s as they can make use of SP speeds which 185s can't. First class isn't really needed on the Manchester to Sheffield route, so the extra seats and space provided by all-standard 195s would probably be of more use.
Finally, it would mean at least half of the 185 fleet wouldn't be needed by TPE anymore, so a worthwhile number of sets could go elsewhere.

 

[Aictos]

One problem is where would all the freed up Class 185s go?

Other then that it looks like a solution in need of a problem.

 

[yorksrob]

Personally, I don't see the point.

The only time I would have benefitted from the situation would have been when old Northern were doing their day passes.

I find the current mix of 158's and 185's makes it one of the best routes for comfort as it is.

 

[py_megapixel]

A load of faff for no reason in my view. Apart from the capacity shortages - which replacing 6-car 185s with what would have to be 3-car 195s (can't see enough being available for more than that) will not solve! - the current arrangements work fine.

 

[JonathanH]

This would simplify things a bit for the fares side of things and would allow Northern to set their own advance tickets for the fast services, potentially making the journey to Sheffield a lot cheaper than the TPE and EMR offerings; Northern advances are cheaper than those of most other TOCs.

You have got things very wrong if you think that the services could be transferred to Northern and they would automatically offer lower fares for fast services than TPE and EMR. What lower cost base would Northern have?

That said, a possible simplification of the routes would be Liverpool to Sheffield operating as a self contained shuttle and Sheffield to Nottingham / Sheffield to Cleethorpes operating as separate services.

 

[Philip]

You have got things very wrong if you think that the services could be transferred to Northern and they would automatically offer lower fares for fast services than TPE and EMR. What lower cost base would Northern have?

That said, a possible simplification of the routes would be Liverpool to Sheffield operating as a self contained shuttle and Sheffield to Nottingham / Sheffield to Cleethorpes operating as separate services.

Well for example Northern advances on Manchester Piccadilly to Preston are cheaper than the TPE equivalent. TPE and Cross Country are known for pricing their tickets high, Northern the opposite.

 

[py_megapixel]

Well for example Northern advances on Manchester Piccadilly to Preston are cheaper than the TPE equivalent. TPE and Cross Country are known for pricing their tickets high, Northern the opposite.

XC and TPE are priced high because the services are overcrowded. Transferring to another TOC won't solve that - except in the sense that 195s will be a huge downgrade over 185s, so people might stop travelling by train!

 

[Philip]

XC and TPE are priced high because the services are overcrowded. Transferring to another TOC won't solve that - except in the sense that 195s will be a huge downgrade over 185s, so people might stop travelling by train!

I suppose that's a matter of opinion. Rail enthusiasts may not think much of 195s, but I think it is a very different feeling amongst most passengers.

 

[py_megapixel]

I suppose that's a matter of opinion. Rail enthusiasts may not think much of 195s, but I think it is a very different feeling amongst most passengers.

The 195s are a huge upgrade over Sprinters, not to mention Pacers.

But I don't think anyone would argue that 195s are an upgrade over 185s in terms of passenger comfort. Yes, the speed differentials are an issue, but not a huge one, when you consider that the main bottleneck isn't in fact linespeed but rather that single-track section at Dore.

 

[Glenn1969]

Presume at the moment the real reason this is a no is Northern being 22 units short ?

 

[py_megapixel]

Presume at the moment the real reason this is a no is Northern being 22 units short ?

Yes, that's another thing, though I'd hope that Northern would have either fixed the issue or got their hands on some trains that actually work before anyone started enacting a transfer of routes to them!

 

[JonathanH]

Well for example Northern advances on Manchester Piccadilly to Preston are cheaper than the TPE equivalent. TPE and Cross Country are known for pricing their tickets high, Northern the opposite.

Yes, but that is on a 'competitive' flow. As the single operator why would they establish cheaper fares?

 

[Philip]

Another point though is that I don't think either of the Hope Valley express services are quite at the level of needing an intercity train like 185s with first class. They are very much regional express routes; like Manchester to Chester and North Wales; Manchester to Cumbria etc. A 195 isn't at the level of 185s in this sense, but doubled up they would provide shorter journey times, less dwell time, more standard capacity and faster acceleration than 185s and for these two routes these factors are particularly important.

The 20-odd 185s released subsequently would then probably be better suited on a London express route like Chiltern, replacing the loco stock, or GWR replacing 158s, or East-West Rail.

 

[yorksrob]

Really, it's only historical precedent that Manchester - Sheffield isn't an "InterCity" route. By any definition, Sheffield and Manchester are both core cities deserving of a high quality express passenger environment.

 

[py_megapixel]

Another point though is that I don't think either of the Hope Valley express services are quite at the level of needing an intercity train like 185s with first class. They are very much regional express routes; like Manchester to Chester and North Wales; Manchester to Cumbria etc.

But the 185s are already there, and nobody's complaining about it. Why would you downgrade a service if you don't have to?

A 195 isn't at the level of 185s in this sense, but doubled up they would provide shorter journey times, less dwell time, more standard capacity and faster acceleration than 185s and for these two routes these factors are particularly important.

The thing is, a 6-car 185 is already enough capacity. Their reputation for overcrowding, and therefore high fares, comes from when everyone still had to cram onto a 3-car 185 (or, worse, a 2-car 158 or Turbostar).

Northern's DMU fleet is stretched enough as it is, so a new 195 order would certainly be needed, especially if you intend to run them doubled. And if you're going to order more 195s, why would you choose to replace perfectly good 15-year old units which are regarded to have one of the nicest interior specs on the network, when you could be replacing life-expired Sprinters?

As for journey times/acceleration, I'm really not sure the difference would be that huge.

The 20-odd 185s released subsequently would then probably be better suited on a London express route like Chiltern, replacing the loco stock, or East-West Rail.

Why?
Chiltern is still a regional service - the express is Avanti, so if your argument is that 185s are 'too good' for Hope Valley, then surely they're also too good for Chiltern? And EWR isn't even open yet!

 

[CBlue]

Another point though is that I don't think either of the Hope Valley express services are quite at the level of needing an intercity train like 185s with first class. They are very much regional express routes; like Manchester to Chester and North Wales; Manchester to Cumbria etc. A 195 isn't at the level of 185s in this sense, but doubled up they would provide shorter journey times, less dwell time, more standard capacity and faster acceleration than 185s and for these two routes these factors are particularly important.

The 20-odd 185s released subsequently would then probably be better suited on a London express route like Chiltern, replacing the loco stock, or GWR replacing 158s, or East-West Rail.

My cup runneth over. I'll admit, it's a good set of solutions looking for problems.

 

[The Planner]

Another point though is that I don't think either of the Hope Valley express services are quite at the level of needing an intercity train like 185s with first class. They are very much regional express routes; like Manchester to Chester and North Wales; Manchester to Cumbria etc. A 195 isn't at the level of 185s in this sense, but doubled up they would provide shorter journey times, less dwell time, more standard capacity and faster acceleration than 185s and for these two routes these factors are particularly important.

The 20-odd 185s released subsequently would then probably be better suited on a London express route like Chiltern, replacing the loco stock, or GWR replacing 158s, or East-West Rail.

Just because they can take advantage of higher speeds, do not for one minute assume you can automatically take advantage of it in the timetable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Chiltern is still a regional service - the express is Avanti, so if your argument is that 185s are 'too good' for Hope Valley, then surely they're also too good for Chiltern? And EWR isn't even open yet!

EWR are after 3-car 100mph DMUs, which 185s are, so they would suit their purposes, and perhaps Northampton could maintain them, being a Siemens shop?

I don't however think there is any point in this three-way reshuffle just to do that, when other 3-car 100mph DMUs will be available instead.

 

[daodao]

Would it be a good idea for Northern to take over the Man Airport-Cleethorpes and Liverpool-Nottingham services so that, along with the stopping service, the Hope Valley line is served by just the one operator?

In one word, YES. The alternative should be the EM franchise taking over all these services.

IMO, TPE should be broken up, with:

• The WCML franchise to take over the NW England-Scotland services.
• The ECML franchise to take over express services (to be run as 2 tph) from Liverpool to Newcastle/Middlesbrough.
• The Northern franchise to take over all other stopping/semi-fast services via the Standedge line, which should start at Manchester Piccadilly and run via Guide Bridge.
• The Northern (or possibly EM) franchise to take over all services via the Hope Valley line.

 

[py_megapixel]

IMO, TPE should be broken up, with:

• The WCML franchise to take over the NW England-Scotland services.
• The ECML franchise to take over express services (to be run as 2 tph) from Liverpool to Newcastle/Middlesbrough.
• The Northern franchise to take over all other stopping/semi-fast services via the Standedge line, which should start at Manchester Piccadilly and run via Guide Bridge.
• The Northern (or possibly EM) franchise to take over all services via the Hope Valley line.

Why does that make any more sense? TPE have just had delivered a large number of new trains, most of which don't fit into an existing operator's fleet, and having a northern regional express operator makes a lot of sense already.

The 185s would probably go to Northern as a new fleet for them, given that they would have quite a lot of use for them. So far, so good. (Apart from the fact that they've expressed a desire for uniformity in their fleet)

You could argue that the 802s could fit into the ECML fleet, but then you have the Liverpool to Edinburgh service operated by LNER, but that stops at various smaller stations in the Liverpool area, which aren't in the north east. This doesn't make any logical sense.

It makes some sense for the Scotland services to go to the WC franchise, but Avanti aren't likely to want to take on the pretty small fleet of 397s when they already have 80x on order and probably have an option for a few more. So you've now just wasted a load of money on 397s.

What about the Mk5 sets? They'll be needed for several routes, and your proposal would split them between LNER and Northern - what? Northern have already expressed a desire for more uniformity in their fleet not less, and LNER already have a completely homogeneous fleet that they probably don't want to ruin.

All of this is just a needless solution in search of a problem.

 

[nathanclass323]

Why does that make any more sense? TPE have just had delivered a large number of new trains, most of which don't fit into an existing operator's fleet, and having a northern regional express operator makes a lot of sense already.

The 185s would probably go to Northern as a new fleet for them, given that they would have quite a lot of use for them. So far, so good. (Apart from the fact that they've expressed a desire for uniformity in their fleet)

You could argue that the 802s could fit into the ECML fleet, but then you have the Liverpool to Edinburgh service operated by LNER, but that stops at various smaller stations in the Liverpool area, which aren't in the north east. This doesn't make any logical sense.

It makes some sense for the Scotland services to go to the WC franchise, but Avanti aren't likely to want to take on the pretty small fleet of 397s when they already have 80x on order and probably have an option for a few more. So you've now just wasted a load of money on 397s.

What about the Mk5 sets? They'll be needed for several routes, and your proposal would split them between LNER and Northern - what? Northern have already expressed a desire for more uniformity in their fleet not less, and LNER already have a completely homogeneous fleet that they probably don't want to ruin.

All of this is just a needless solution in search of a problem.

Very inclined to agree with all of this.

As a semi-regular user of the Hope Valley Line, I rather like the current arrangement. TPE has a strong regional express network in the north and I see no need to split this up and complicate matters for other TOCs.

 

[daodao]

You could argue that the 802s could fit into the ECML fleet, but then you have the Liverpool to Edinburgh service operated by LNER, but that stops at various smaller stations in the Liverpool area, which aren't in the north east.

The only stations served in NW England would/should be Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Victoria and the 802s would fit into the ECML fleet.

It makes some sense for the Scotland services to go to the WC franchise,

Exactly. The 397s can be returned to the ROSCO and used for something else.

I am not going comment further, as it would be "off topic".

 

[JonathanH]

Exactly. The 397s can be returned to the ROSCO and used for something else.

Or parked up with the Mk5s and simply be forgotten about.

I must say that I agree with your proposal to disband TPE.

WCML services from Manchester to Scotland can simply be binned off with passengers changing at Preston out of a 4tph Blackpool Airport to Manchester Airport / Hazel Grove service into the existing 2tph Avanti London to Scotland services. (I appreciate the comments previously made about the increase in custom between Manchester and Scotland as these services have developed but I think a lot of it would survive this split.)

There is some merit to having Liverpool Lime Stree - Manchester Victoria - Huddersfield - Leeds - York - Northallerton - Darlington - Durham - Newcastle services run by LNER (for want of a better operator) using the 802 fleet and the rest of the Standedge operations with Northern. Scarborough and Middlesbrough can be run as shuttles from York.

As noted above in this thread, 2tph Northern Liverpool to Sheffield as a self-contained shuttle and the 1tph Sheffield to Nottingham / 1tph Sheffield to Cleethorpes sections operated stand alone deals with the Hope Valley. Neither Nottingham or Cleethorpes need through services to Manchester if there are reasonable connections at Sheffield.

 

[Ianno87]

WCML services from Manchester to Scotland can simply be binned off with passengers changing at Preston out of a 4tph Blackpool Airport to Manchester Airport / Hazel Grove service into the existing 2tph Avanti London to Scotland services. (I appreciate the comments previously made about the increase in custom between Manchester and Scotland as these services have developed but I think a lot of it would survive this split.)

No, making it a regular direct train is quite clearly a commercial success, on a flow where air travel is clearly the competitor. Right on the magic 3 hour mark. Removing it would be a totally backwards step.

 

[Purple Orange]

Breaking up TPE is a backwards step. I see no reason for it’s intercity services to be palmed off to Avanti or LNER, as there is no benefit to the passengers. Even if it was to happen, Manchester Victoria as a station for long distance services is not long for this world. It’s future is a regional station for stopping & semi-fast trains.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed. Manchester - Scotland has been a notable success and soaks up a lot of leisure travel between Manchester and the Lakes. It should be nurtured.

 

[tbtc]

I don't know what the solution is.

If there's money for dozens of brand new DMU carriages (like the OP is suggesting) then that's great, but I don't think that there is.

I'd certainly remove the Cleethorpes service from TPE. It's got very little to do with the rest of TPE (beyond a short section from Piccadilly to Manchester Airport, which may well be cut anyway) - it'd be much better suited to either Northern or EMR - but then the Liverpool - Nottingham service doesn't have that much to do with the rest of EMR either, so I could see logic in giving both of these services to Northern (I liked the Manchester proposals that meant a half hourly Liverpool - Sheffield service all under one operator). I think that one set of staff operating a common fleet of trains on the Hope Valley fasts would be much better than the "old" franchises (which often fell apart when things went wrong, as they often do!) - maybe with the Hope Valley stopper being run by the same people we'd have better integration with more incentive for long distance services to provide additional services at local stations at key times (e.g. Edale on summer Sundays).

But who knows how "franchises" will look in the future, so it's probably a moot point.

Indeed. Manchester - Scotland has been a notable success and soaks up a lot of leisure travel between Manchester and the Lakes. It should be nurtured.

It's been one of the biggest success stories of the past fifteen or so years (since it moved from Virgin to First TPE) - no argument there. I remember the days of BR putting on two coach 158s between Manchester and Edinburgh/ Glasgow in the 1990s (a fairly irregular service back then) - the fact that it's gone from that to a specifically built five coach 125mph trains every hour is brilliant. I was against the initial proposal to give it to TPE (since the project seemed to be driven by Virgin needing additional Voyagers for their improved Chester - London service, which meant Sheffield's TPE services were downgraded to two coach 170s as the three coach 185s were needed for the Scottish services - back when the Chancellor was MP for Cheshire - pure coincidence, I'm sure!).

My question would be about how much of the demand is due to First TPE competing with the established Virgin services (later Avanti) - e.g. I've often seen prices that mean it'd be cheaper for me to do Sheffield - Edinburgh via Manchester (because the Manchester - WCML - Edinburgh tickets were do cheap) - would the demand still be there if fares weren't as deeply discounted? (I don't know the answer - but I'm wary of assuming that passenger volumes on routes where competition has driven fares down are sustainable if fares go back up to "standard" prices)

 

[Ianno87]

It's been one of the biggest success stories of the past fifteen or so years (since it moved from Virgin to First TPE) - no argument there. I remember the days of BR putting on two coach 158s between Manchester and Edinburgh/ Glasgow in the 1990s (a fairly irregular service back then) - the fact that it's gone from that to a specifically built five coach 125mph trains every hour is brilliant. I was against the initial proposal to give it to TPE (since the project seemed to be driven by Virgin needing additional Voyagers for their improved Chester - London service, which meant Sheffield's TPE services were downgraded to two coach 170s as the three coach 185s were needed for the Scottish services - back when the Chancellor was MP for Cheshire - pure coincidence, I'm sure!).

Virgin never seemed massively interested in promoting or developing the Manchester-Scotland market, even when operating Voyagers every 2 hours after Operation Princess. Probably a classic case of being relatively peripheral to the rest of their XC operation, whereas for TPE it's now a pretty core route to them.

 

[Aictos]

If any changes were to be made to TPE then instead of breaking it up as some here like to, I think it be better being merged with Cross Country and advertised as XC services.

The reasoning being is the TPE core routes could be classed as cross country routes especially Liverpool to Newcastle or Manchester to Edinburgh.

There would also be back of house savings by having one company manage both XC and TPE services.

That's the only change that makes the most sense, LNER operating Liverpool to Edinburgh doesn't make sense etc...

 

[py_megapixel]

I don't know what the solution is.

If there's money for dozens of brand new DMU carriages (like the OP is suggesting) then that's great, but I don't think that there is.

But if there's money for dozens of brand new DMU carriages for the North, then it's surely daft to replace 185s but leave Sprinters in service?