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Should HS2 be scrapped?

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HSTEd

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I also forgot to mention:

1. Nobody likes 3+2.
Some late model Shinkansen are discarding 3+2 for bigger seats in a 2+2 formation, see the 800 series for examples.
In the UK context you could just do big 2+2 and still have a wider aisle than on conventional trains. That eases movement through the train and provides additional standing capacity should it be needed.

2. The selling point of First Class when travelling alone is the 1 side.
Gran class on E7/W7 series Shinkansen is 1+2. Those seats appear to be enormous. And again, a much more suitable aisle width
 
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The Ham

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No, the target figure shows that significant growth is intended to be achieved slowly, incrementally, and realistically over a number of years. There will no doubt be setback years connected to overall economic conditions and years where a major project comes on-stream and the yearly average growth is exceeded considerably. The total is similar to what has been achieved in the UK over the last few decades, albeit from a much lower usage base per capita here, and with no formal plan.

In comparison to the 1.5% HS2 predictions were based on 2.5%, yet between 2009 and 2019 (so 10 years not 27 years) some inter regional flows had seen growth of 70% (London/Scotland, London/East Midlands, London/North West), that's an average of 5.5% per year.

Therefore not only has some rail growth exceeded 50%, it's done it in 10 years and not over several decades.
 

Bevan Price

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Other countries get it. Sadly we don't.

See also Castlefield. It should be four tracked with few or no additional services for pure resilience.

We'll never have a punctual, reliable railway if we keep simply clogging up every possible path without leaving any spare capacity for resilience.
The chances of Castlefield becoming four-tracked were always virtually impossible. There is too much existing property on either side of the current alignment that would be prohibitively expensive to purchase and remove.
 

matacaster

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The chances of Castlefield becoming four-tracked were always virtually impossible. There is too much existing property on either side of the current alignment that would be prohibitively expensive to purchase and remove.
They could have built a mezzanine deck above existing formation.
 

Halifaxlad

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I am inclined to agree that 400m wasn't the right way to go, because 200m is an awkward size - 400m is too long for most trains but 200m is too short. The 265m of the 11 car Pendolino is actually quite a good length for an InterCity train. If we'd gone for say 300m (12x25m) that would have added more potential capacity without going mad.
I do wonder with 300m long trains if it would make it easier to build Euston with 11 platforms as in theory you would have 100m x summat square meters spare that could be used as a construction compound, obviously it would depend on the design of the station.

Alternatively you could potentially not develop past Drummond St and the old Euston tube station. Personally I this that would be better if it was incorporated into the bottom of a development rather than demolishing it.
 

Meerkat

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The chances of Castlefield becoming four-tracked were always virtually impossible. There is too much existing property on either side of the current alignment that would be prohibitively expensive to purchase and remove.
Depends whether you are literally just removing property or replacing it with new.
 

HSTEd

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The chances of Castlefield becoming four-tracked were always virtually impossible. There is too much existing property on either side of the current alignment that would be prohibitively expensive to purchase and remove.
A substantial fraction of that property is on the verge of being converted into piles of rubble at the moment (University North campus redevelopment).

Sure it would be expensive, but any attempt to fix Manchester is going to be comically expensive, and it provides far more than any other surface solution in terms of increased capability.
 

Bletchleyite

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A substantial fraction of that property is on the verge of being converted into piles of rubble at the moment (University North campus redevelopment).

Sure it would be expensive, but any attempt to fix Manchester is going to be comically expensive, and it provides far more than any other surface solution in terms of increased capability.

An interesting question is whether tunnelling would be cheaper or more expensive than purchasing and demolishing buildings to create space for an elevated 4 track railway.

It's a shame the Mancunian Way is a bit far south to be replaced with a railway viaduct, as urban motorways are now increasingly deprecated yet it would allow the room for a 4-track railway, easily. It looks too far south to even easily bring it into Piccadilly only.
 
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yorkie

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Does anyone have anything else to add regarding HS2?

If anyone wants to discuss anything else, please create a new thread, or use an existing thread if there is one.

Thanks
 

Mark J

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The money that has been wasted on HS2 would have been very welcome elsewhere on the network.

Imagine what £70-80 billion could have done for the existing network.

- Reopening lines to decent sized towns.
- More rolling stock for XC.
- New rolling stock for areas using clapped out trains.
- Finishing off the stalled GW electrification.
- Fixing (rather than delay fixing) crumbling infrastructure.

The list could go on...

Money is never seemingly available for such things (without a lengthy consultation and study). Yet the money has been seemingly available and was thrown at HS2 hand over fist, until costs spiraled massively out of control. All for a project with a dwindling BCR.
 

The Ham

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The money that has been wasted on HS2 would have been very welcome elsewhere on the network.

Imagine what £70-80 billion could have done for the existing network.

- Reopening lines to decent sized towns.
- More rolling stock for XC.
- New rolling stock for areas using clapped out trains.
- Finishing off the stalled GW electrification.
- Fixing (rather than delay fixing) crumbling infrastructure.

The list could go on...

Money is never seemingly available for such things (without a lengthy consultation and study). Yet the money has been seemingly available and was thrown at HS2 hand over fist, until costs spiraled massively out of control. All for a project with a dwindling BCR.

In the 10 years from 2009 to 2019 NR had £30bn of spending in Enhancements (this excludes new trains, Welsh government spending, and the vast majority of the Crossrail spending).

Over the timeframe of HS2 (another 15+ years) at the same rate of spend over 25 years there'll be £75bn of Network Rail spending on enhancements (again excluding be trains, etc.)

Therefore it's entirely possible to have both, and the need to spend on the existing infrastructure isn't a reason to cancel HS2, also to get the best out of HS2 there's a need for further investment in the very things you call for.

That's before you consider the extra platform capacity released at places like Manchester and Birmingham by the removal of kind distance services and how they could have a positive impact on the ability to run longer trains for the remaining services to those stations.
 

RobShipway

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In the 10 years from 2009 to 2019 NR had £30bn of spending in Enhancements (this excludes new trains, Welsh government spending, and the vast majority of the Crossrail spending).

Over the timeframe of HS2 (another 15+ years) at the same rate of spend over 25 years there'll be £75bn of Network Rail spending on enhancements (again excluding be trains, etc.)

Therefore it's entirely possible to have both, and the need to spend on the existing infrastructure isn't a reason to cancel HS2, also to get the best out of HS2 there's a need for further investment in the very things you call for.

That's before you consider the extra platform capacity released at places like Manchester and Birmingham by the removal of kind distance services and how they could have a positive impact on the ability to run longer trains for the remaining services to those stations.
HS2 also as been said I believe a few times, gives more capacity to WCML, which is the main reason for it to be built let us not forget. Without that extra capacity, you will not be able to get extra freight and passenger trains on the WCML that will also help to reduce carbon emissions the UK is given out. To enable the full extent of the carbon emissions to be reduced, HS2 is needed to be built in full to Euston, Manchester, Crewe and York at least.

However, I have no doubt that the Government is going to do this in stages, which is what was planned before, although now where the original first stage was London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street station, it will now be Old Oak Common to Curzon Street station, with the link to London Euston I have no doubt happening 2 - 5 years later.

I don't wish to bring politics into this discussion, but I am hoping that any change not to be building to Euston, Crewe, Manchester and York that the current UK government may decide on is reverted by any new Government after the elections next year.
 

stuu

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The money that has been wasted on HS2 would have been very welcome elsewhere on the network.

Imagine what £70-80 billion could have done for the existing network.

- Reopening lines to decent sized towns.
- More rolling stock for XC.
- New rolling stock for areas using clapped out trains.
- Finishing off the stalled GW electrification.
- Fixing (rather than delay fixing) crumbling infrastructure.

The list could go on...

Money is never seemingly available for such things (without a lengthy consultation and study). Yet the money has been seemingly available and was thrown at HS2 hand over fist, until costs spiraled massively out of control. All for a project with a dwindling BCR.
The money has been borrowed specifically for the scheme. That does not mean it would have been available for any long list of smaller schemes
 

mike57

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I don't wish to bring politics into this discussion, but I am hoping that any change not to be building to Euston, Crewe, Manchester and York that the current UK government may decide on is reverted by any new Government after the elections next year.
I think the eastern leg is dead in the water, its not about which party wins the next election, I just dont think the money will be made available. My prediction is the Euston will happen, but delayed, and Manchester is 50/50. Its not about which party is in power its just simple 'cant afford it'

If as seems likely we are looking at further massive cost overruns similar to other major projects recently then I think all governments will shy away from this sort of project going forwards.

To be honest the best outcome would be cross party concensus on what can be acheived in the current climate, and then get behind that decision and deliver it. Play hard ball on cost escalations, get boots on the ground, and get it finished, if anything try and accelarate it. But thats not how UK politics works, and we are poorer for it, as the delivery of this type of project will always take longer than the election/politcal cycle.
 

RobShipway

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I think the eastern leg is dead in the water, its not about which party wins the next election, I just dont think the money will be made available. My prediction is the Euston will happen, but delayed, and Manchester is 50/50. Its not about which party is in power its just simple 'cant afford it'

If as seems likely we are looking at further massive cost overruns similar to other major projects recently then I think all governments will shy away from this sort of project going forwards.

To be honest the best outcome would be cross party concensus on what can be acheived in the current climate, and then get behind that decision and deliver it. Play hard ball on cost escalations, get boots on the ground, and get it finished, if anything try and accelarate it. But thats not how UK politics works, and we are poorer for it, as the delivery of this type of project will always take longer than the election/politcal cycle.
I have to agree with comment 100% @mike57. But even if it takes 20/30/50 years to be completed, the Eastern leg should be built, but as you say it needs cross party agreement to enable it to be built. But those with the reponsibility to get it built, as you should be playing hard ball and keeping cost escalations down where possible and safe to do so.
 

12LDA28C

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The money that has been wasted on HS2 would have been very welcome elsewhere on the network.

Imagine what £70-80 billion could have done for the existing network.

- Reopening lines to decent sized towns.
- More rolling stock for XC.
- New rolling stock for areas using clapped out trains.
- Finishing off the stalled GW electrification.
- Fixing (rather than delay fixing) crumbling infrastructure.

The list could go on...

Money is never seemingly available for such things (without a lengthy consultation and study). Yet the money has been seemingly available and was thrown at HS2 hand over fist, until costs spiraled massively out of control. All for a project with a dwindling BCR.

As has been mentioned many times, the money to build HS2 would not have been available for any other purpose. It was created to fund HS2 only, so it's pointless to suggest it could have been better spent on xyz instead. It's Government mismanagement of the project that has caused costs to spiral but that does not make HS2 any less essential.
 

trebor79

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Can you advise a cheaper way to remove six trains per hour from the south WCML to allow an improved local service, improved East West Rail service and more freight?
A much less lavishly specified freight and relief line running roughly parallel to the southern WCML?
 

Bletchleyite

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A much less lavishly specified freight and relief line running roughly parallel to the southern WCML?

You're going to bulldoze half of Milton Keynes? (Yes, I know, some would call that an improvement).

The reason moving fast services off is easier is because you can then run the line through the middle of nowhere rather than through towns you still need to serve.
 

trebor79

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You're going to bulldoze half of Milton Keynes? (Yes, I know, some would call that an improvement).

The reason moving fast services off is easier is because you can then run the line through the middle of nowhere rather than through towns you still need to serve.
No of course not, but you wouldn't need to route it through towns as most freight terminals aren't in the middle of towns anyway.

In any case, if HS2 was truly about capacity rather than being a high speed vanity project it would have been specified as a 125mph (or maybe 140mph at a push) railway so that ordinary stock could run on it rather than having a much more expensive specification and requiring very expensive brand new stock to utilise it.
This narrative about it being all about capacity only started to emerge when the costings ballooned and people pointed out the cost to save 15 minutes to Birmingham (and not even that now that Euston is in doubt) was unjustified.
 

HSTEd

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In any case, if HS2 was truly about capacity rather than being a high speed vanity project it would have been specified as a 125mph (or maybe 140mph at a push) railway so that ordinary stock could run on it rather than having a much more expensive specification and requiring very expensive brand new stock to utilise it.
High Speed rolling stock isn't really that expensive!
A TGV Duplex only costs about €20m for a 200m trainset. (EDIT: More recent figures for the higher capacity TGV-M put it at €30m, but still not substantially more than a UK spec 200m conventional trainset).
You won't get a UK gauge conventional train for much less than that these days!

And has been repeatedly demonstrated, building railways for lower speeds doesn't really save any money!
You save a bit on the track specification, but that's pretty much it!

HS1 estimates put the saving at under 10% for 125mph vs 186mph.
And HS2 has to be fast or it won't be able to relieve enough main lines to actually use its huge capacity.

EDIT:
A lot of people are desperate to blame specification "gold plating" for this debacle.
But that's not what caused this, what caused this was bad management and an overreliance on consultants who's reward structures in no way align with the public interest.
As well as a fundamentally outdated view of how to build infrastructure.
 

Bletchleyite

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No of course not, but you wouldn't need to route it through towns as most freight terminals aren't in the middle of towns anyway.

Freight isn't the only issue, you also need added local passenger capacity.

In any case, if HS2 was truly about capacity rather than being a high speed vanity project it would have been specified as a 125mph (or maybe 140mph at a push) railway so that ordinary stock could run on it rather than having a much more expensive specification and requiring very expensive brand new stock to utilise it.
This narrative about it being all about capacity only started to emerge when the costings ballooned and people pointed out the cost to save 15 minutes to Birmingham (and not even that now that Euston is in doubt) was unjustified.

I would have gone 140 or 155mph and ordered AT300s as the stock. I think super-high-speed will become increasingly deprecated for environmental reasons.
 

stuu

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A lot of people are desperate to blame specification "gold plating" for this debacle.
Some of the worst gold-plating is the environmental mitigation - the green tunnels in the middle of nowhere, the vast amounts of earth-moving needed to make sure it isn't possible to see the line from anywhere
 

Bletchleyite

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Some of the worst gold-plating is the environmental mitigation - the green tunnels in the middle of nowhere, the vast amounts of earth-moving needed to make sure it isn't possible to see the line from anywhere

Despite which the moaners are still moaning. Yet the WCML is a welcome addition to the Chiltern landscape, and is 4 tracks - HS2 will only be two.
 

trebor79

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Some of the worst gold-plating is the environmental mitigation - the green tunnels in the middle of nowhere, the vast amounts of earth-moving needed to make sure it isn't possible to see the line from anywhere
Agree, and it's actually a misnomer to refer to it as environmental mitigation - it's actually more environmental impact than would otherwise be the case, just to pacify some nimbys who don't want their view "spoiled".
 

Sorcerer

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On the subject of a dedicated line for freight, it wouldn't be as practical as it would be for passengers because goods can be transported either overnight when the WCML is emptier, or can be transported at lower speeds because there won't be any passengers demanding faster journeys. Any amount of freight transported at 160km/h would still be preferable to HGVs travelling at 110km/h and contributing to increased road traffic and carbon emissions. Meanwhile if passengers think they can make quicker journeys by car or plane then they will do so, therefore on that basis a dedicated passenger route like HS2 is the more pragmatic option for both increasing capacity on existing routes and also getting people off roads and onto rails. The environmental and business case for HS2, despite delays and mismanagement, still remains.

Despite which the moaners are still moaning. Yet the WCML is a welcome addition to the Chiltern landscape, and is 4 tracks - HS2 will only be two.
NIMBYs will NIMBY, and I partially blame them for the project being so expensive due to the railway being forced to travel through more tunnels that will naturally increase costs. But then again, given that homeowners make up quite a substantial part of the voting population, it was almost inevitable that the government, regardless of the party, would've had to deal with it in some way sooner or later.
 

HSTEd

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Some of the worst gold-plating is the environmental mitigation - the green tunnels in the middle of nowhere, the vast amounts of earth-moving needed to make sure it isn't possible to see the line from anywhere
The problem is that surface construction, especially cut and cover tunnel construction, isn't actually cheap any more. In all but the emptiest terrain you spend so much on "enabling works" and land acquisition to wipe out savings from just boring the damn thing, or putting a viaduct in.

There is a reason projects in most of the rest of the world now largely aschew surface construction in favour of viaducts and bored tunnels.
HS2 decided that surface construction was cheap and we've paid the penalty.
 

stuu

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The problem is that surface construction, especially cut and cover tunnel construction, isn't actually cheap any more. In all but the emptiest terrain you spend so much on "enabling works" to wipe out savings from just boring the damn thing, or putting a viaduct in.

There is a reason projects in most of the rest of the world now largely aschew surface construction in favour of viaducts and bored tunnels.
HS2 decided that surface construction was cheap and we've paid the penalty.
I know, a cost comparison with the Brenner Base Tunnel is "interesting", even for Phase 2a
 

The Ham

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No of course not, but you wouldn't need to route it through towns as most freight terminals aren't in the middle of towns anyway.

In any case, if HS2 was truly about capacity rather than being a high speed vanity project it would have been specified as a 125mph (or maybe 140mph at a push) railway so that ordinary stock could run on it rather than having a much more expensive specification and requiring very expensive brand new stock to utilise it.
This narrative about it being all about capacity only started to emerge when the costings ballooned and people pointed out the cost to save 15 minutes to Birmingham (and not even that now that Euston is in doubt) was unjustified.

Let's say we built a moderate speed line, which cut 30 minutes of the London/Manchester journey time and filled it with 400m trains.

Let's compare rolling stock requirements:

Current services 1/3 to 2/3 9 and 11 coach 390's = 155 coaches
Moderate speed improvements 16 coach trains = 192 coaches
HS2 services 16 coaches = 144 coaches

Whilst the moderate speed line would be a little cheaper to build it'll cost more to run the same number of seats (you'll need more staff time as well).

Also a lot of the costs are within the urban areas, including the stations, which wouldn't be much cheaper regardless as to how slow you went.
 
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