Service demand vs service supply

[PaulMc7]

Supply vs demand is an interesting aspect of the bus industry and personally for me, demand increasing is what has to lead to more supply and increased frequencies.

From experience, a lot of the general public seem to think increased supply has to come before demand increases and this is part of the issue operators have when it comes to using their resources and allocating them in the best way possible.

What is your opinion on this? Should demand come before supply or do you see it the way I've experienced where supply comes before increases in demand. I personally believe you need to use what is there in order to get additional services.

 

[WAB]

Let's put it this way. For the time element alone:

Where waiting time = w, journey time = j, distance to the bus stop at either end = d, t = total journey time (one-way)

Daytime journey:
bus = 120w + 60j + 15d = 195t = 3hrs 15 mins
car = 0w + 25j + 2d = 27t = 27 minutes

Night journey:
bus = 960w + 60j + 15d = 1230t = 20hrs 15 mins
car = 0w + 20j + 2d = 22t = 22 minutes

Assumptions are: daytime bus service only, 2-hourly service, 7.5 minute walk to bus stop at either end, 2 minute walk from car park to high street

Reduce the waiting time for the bus (w) through frequency uplift, the distance to the bus stop (d) through a denser network, and the journey time (j) through bus priority and you reduce the total journey time (t). That makes the bus a usable alternative. Otherwise, the unattractive service is going to be left to those who don't have access to a car (the poor, elderly, disabled, children etc.), those who are ideologically positive towards buses (enthusiasts, environmentalists, enjoyers of the slow scenic way round - not many of any of the three to go around), and those who get free travel (the elderly and bus co. staff). Not a particularly remunerative clientele, and mainly a distress purchase.

There is a chicken and egg situation, I agree, but you either need to force people out of their cars (ha!), or attract people onto buses (and this is through the basics: frequency, network coverage, hours of operation, and reliability. Fancy PR does not really compensate for this) to push up patronage. Just assuming that an hourly service in a knackered Enviro 200 that may or may not turn up, involves a long work, goes round the houses, and gives up at 5pm will attract demand is a bit pie-in-the-sky. The only part of the country where new routes and enhanced services are consistently introduced is London, where they can afford to put the supply in before the demand. Everywhere else seems to be more or less managed retreat, or just about holding the line, although developments in Manchester and Birmingham might lead to more positive developments.