It's an interesting discussion regarding funding. I don't know enough about it to go into great detail, but my understanding is that franchisees have to operate within the model imposed by privatisation, and that requires payment to the BTP for policing services.
If I was the MD of a TOC, who was paying into the BTP 'pot', I'd certainly be raising this pretty strongly with the powers that be should there b any cuts to the services I was receiving!
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I think the risk of cut backs must be much greater in a wider force though? To a significant extent the BTP is protected from Government cut backs, with its funding detailed in franchise agreements, and its service being seen as important to the TOCs (as funders) for the passenger benefit provided.
I certainly think that the perception is that there is an increased risk of PS cutting former BTP numbers and services and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the reality. PS wouldn't have the same focus as the BTP, if logic has anything to do with it. The fact remains, though, that railway policing services are part funded by the industry, which could mitigate logic in this case.
I can't see any difference between a huge national force and the BTP in respect of how TOC's would react if there were cuts. If Scotrail continued to pay the same amount as previously, yet the numbers of officers trained in railway policing were cut, there would be a lot of heat on the Scottish government and the Police, and the media would have a field day.