Altnabreac
Established Member
Without getting too political, any speculation past what is currently planned is subject to changes in government. I really think bi-modes will figure hugely in Scotrails long term future and whilst electrification may reach the North of the country, I believe it will need to have its costs reduced and large jobs such as the Forth bridge/South Fife tunnels/Moncrieff tunnel/Tay bridge/Maryhill canal tunnels etc will never see wires installed and instead the gaps will be bridged using bimode technology.
I tend to think politics is why the wiring will happen in Scotland. It's unlikely based on current polling that any single party will be getting a majority at the next Holyrood election. So whoever takes power will be dependent on minor party support. Scottish Green Party are strongly in favour of rail investment in general and electrification in particular so they won't be signing off a budget that drops electrification schemes.
SNP and Conservatives are both fighting hard for votes in the north east and Rail access to Aberdeen will be a political issue. Electrification to Aberdeen has a political message above and beyond it's practical application which is why I tend to think that Dundee - Aberdeen could see wires before Fife does (it's also about half the stkm).
Labour are probably the party with least current interest in the Aberdeen area so they could be less keen on it but I'd think if Labour were looking for a capital saving in the north east they'd be much more likely to drop something like the central section of the A96 duelling which has a higher capital cost and is in a much more marginal area of Moray / Banffshire where Labour have virtually no presence.
So politically I tend to see more wiring as a politically difficult budget saving compared to other schemes.